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Alert Plus: Multiple Large Earthquakes Strike Southern Turkey

Situation Summary: Large Earthquakes in Southern Turkey

At 01:17 (UTC) on 6 February, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake was detected 30km west-northwest of Gaziantep, Turkey (37°10’26.4″N 37°01’55.2″E). The earthquake struck at a depth of 24.1km and it quickly became apparent that a significant amount of casualties and damage had occurred in Turkey and northern Syria. There have been several substantial aftershocks, eight of which recorded a magnitude of at least 5. Tremors have also been felt in Greece, Cyprus and Lebanon.​

As of 10:00, at least 1200 fatalities had been confirmed across Turkey and Syria. Images and videos posted to social media and local news outlets indicate considerable damage to infrastructure. In Turkey alone, at least 2818 buildings have collapsed. At 10:24, the region was then struck again by a separate 7.5 magnitude earthquake 4km south-southeast of Ekinozu (37°10’26.4″N 37°01’55.2″E) – roughly 128km north of the earlier epicentre. At the time of writing, it has been reported that the region has experienced at least 100 aftershocks. ​

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the area in which the quakes have hit is populated predominately by non-earthquake-resistant residential structures. They are often made of masonry, brick, and non-reinforced concrete frames. As a result, many buildings will have been badly damaged or will have collapsed completely. This means that there will be few places in which survivors can shelter safely.​

Turkey declared a ‘Level 4 Alarm’ after the initial tremor, which reportedly includes a call for international assistance and support. The European Union has agreed to send rescue teams and is preparing further help for Turkey. US officials are also monitoring the situation and have noted their willingness to help. Rescue teams from India, Russia and Taiwan have also deployed. ​

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has described events so far as the nation’s worst disaster since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake that killed over 32,000.  ​

Intelligence Analysis by Solace Global

The earthquakes have struck as Turkey prepares for its May elections, which were already seen as some of the country’s most consequential in decades. These earthquakes further add electoral weight, since previous large earthquakes have led to major political changes in the country. In the wake of Turkey’s last major earthquakes, in 1999, voters turned away the incumbent parties in the 2002 elections. These parties were punished as a result of the poor relief and reconstruction efforts, and for the large-scale corruption the earthquake exposed. Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) party were the major beneficiaries of this political shift. As a result, he became Prime Minster in 2003 and ascended to the Presidency in 2014, a post he currently still holds.​

The province of Gaziantep, where the epicentre of the earlier earthquake is located, has long been a cradle of support for the AKP and Erdogan. Indeed, support for the AKP and Erdogan has remained high in the province despite the recent economic volatility and uncertainty in the country, and the persistent accusations of corruption levied against the AKP and President Erdogan. Consequently, comprehensive aid and reconstruction efforts are likely to be implemented swiftly. Despite this, contemporary Turkish political history suggests that the AKP, having been the beneficiaries of the 1999 earthquake, may be victims of these ones. This becomes increasingly possible if victims feel that aid is too slow, not sufficient, or that reconstruction efforts are corrupt. ​

Northern Syria has also been badly affected by the disaster. This part of the country has seen several recent Turkish military incursions; it is also home to some of the last anti-government areas of control. The tremors are almost certain to mean that Turkish offensive military operations in the region are temporarily halted, as the military is redeployed to support disaster relief and search and rescue operations in Turkey. The Syrian government may also seek to fast-track search and rescue and reconstruction efforts in areas in the region it controls in a bid to try and win support across an area which was long a stronghold of anti-Assad movements.​

Those with interests in the region are advised to note that there remains considerable potential for large-magnitude aftershocks or follow-on tremors.​

Advice if Affected by Earthquakes in Turkey

Risk Management for NGO’s in Turkey and Syria

Alert Plus: Jerusalem Explosions

Situation Summary

On 23 November at around 07:00 to 07:30 local time, two explosions impacted the city of Jerusalem. Both explosions occurred at bus stops located in the Givat Shaul (stop ID: 647) and Ramot Junction (stop ID: 4009) entrances to the city. The geolocated site of the Givat Shaul explosion is situated less than 2km from the Knesset and Supreme Court, whilst the Ramot Junction explosion occurred close to the Ramot Alon Jewish settlement.

At least one person was killed and 17 people were injured during the first explosion at Givat Shaul, whilst the second explosion at the Ramot Junction injured a further five people and damaged a public bus located in the area. The Shaare Zedek Medical Center and Hadassah Mount Scopus Medical Center received injured persons from the twin explosions. The individual killed in the combined blasts has been identified as Aryeh Schopek, a 16-year-old Canadian citizen who lived in the Har Nof neighborhood of Jerusalem and attended a local yeshiva.

Initial reports indicate that two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) concealed in bags were responsible for the explosions. Both bags were left at bus stops during the busy hour of the early morning commute. Israeli police later confirmed that the explosions were being treated as a suspected combined terror attack conducted by a “Palestinian” individual or organisation. No independent verification of the claim of suspected Palestinian responsibility for the attack was immediately identifiable.

Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai confirmed that an investigation into the attack was underway and did not rule out the possibility of multiple suspects. New anti- terror measures were also announced in the aftermath of the attack, including the deployment of police officers with sniffer dogs to all buses in Jerusalem to search for any as-of-yet undiscovered IEDs. Road closures have also been implemented, including a suspension of incoming traffic along Highway One which connects Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.

Outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid organised a national security meeting in Tel Aviv at 12:00 local time in response to the attack. Benjamin Netanyahu, the former and incoming prime minister, called for a “strengthening [of] the hands of the security forces” engaged in front-line anti-terror operations in the aftermath of the attack.

Solace Global Comment

Attacks on civilian infrastructure occur with some frequency in Israel, and buses have been targeted on multiple occasions over the past three decades. In 2022 alone, multiple terror attacks have occurred in Israeli territory, such as a mass shooting at a bus stop in Hadera in March, a mass stabbing and vehicle-ramming attack in Beersheba in March, a mass shooting in the Bnei Brak district of Tel Aviv in March, and a mass stabbing in El’ad in May. Palestinian and Islamist terror groups are often attributed with responsibility for many of these attacks, even when there is no official claim.

Though no group or organisation has claimed responsibility for the combined attack in Jerusalem, public attention has turned to Hamas. Mohammad Hamada, a Hamas spokesperson, issued a statement claiming that the “coming days will be intense and more difficult for the enemy” and that “the time has come for the creation of cells that are spread all over Palestine”. The discovery of an IED at the light rail tracks near the Jerusalem Central Bus Station during the evening hours of 22 November has raised concerns that the twin bomb blasts may have originally been intended as a triple, or even larger, attack. Further attacks remain likely in the short term.

At the time of writing, police reports indicate that the IEDs used by those responsible for the combined attack were packed with nails and likely remotely detonated. This method increases lethality despite the likely low-yield of the IEDs themselves, impacting civilians and surrounding infrastructure with metallic shrapnel. Security forces are certain to engage in an extensive investigation into the attack, and Israel Defence Forces (IDF) incursions into both Gaza and the West Bank are almost certain to occur in the short- term as Israeli authorities seek retribution for the terrorist incident. The explosions came as Netanyahu finalizes agreements with allies to form a new right- wing government that is set to include members of religious and far-right parties. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the head of the Otzma Yehudit political party and Netanyahu’s pick to be the next Minister of Public Security, visited the scene of the first attack and endorsed an aggressive response, calling for the government to “lay siege” to the culprits “even if it’s in the West Bank”. Ben-Gvir’s comments also endorsed house-to-house searches to locate those responsible for the attack with the intention of restoring the “deterrence power” of the Israeli government.

map of jerusalem explosions

Solace Global Advice

  • In the event of a terrorist attack those in the area are reminded to RUN – HIDE – TELL – FIGHT
  • Israel has a high risk of terrorism. Further attacks remain likely in the short term, although the presence of additional security force personnel in Jerusalem will likely mitigate the risk of follow-on attacks in the immediate term
  • Individuals with planned travel to Jerusalem are advised to reconfirm itineraries and expect localised travel disruption, particularly in the immediate vicinity of the incidents
  • Travellers are advised to avoid the immediate vicinity of Givat Shaul and Ramot Junction as emergency services remain on the scene to conduct their investigations
  • Further terror attacks in Jerusalem are likely to be indiscriminate, using explosives, bladed weapons, vehicles, and firearms to target crowded areas, government or security force installations and personnel, civilians, transportation networks, the Old City, and other high-profile locations including sites of religious significance
  • Locations where large groups of residents or tourists are known to gather are at higher risk of attack. You should be particularly vigilant in these areas and follow any specific advice or guidance from the local authorities or security personnel
  • Exercise increased caution, remain vigilant, be aware of your surroundings and report any suspicious activity or items to security personnel as soon as possible
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek immediate hard cover from any incoming gunfire or explosions and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates

Alert Plus: Istanbul Explosion

Situation Summary

On 13 November, at around 16:20 local time, an explosion occurred on Istiklal Caddesi in Istanbul. The street is mostly pedestrianised and is frequented by large numbers of both residents and tourists.

Available footage from the attack indicates that an explosive device was placed in a bag and then left on a bench in proximity to a Mango clothing store. Authorities believe the bag was left by a female suspect, who sat on the bench for around 40 minutes before walking away immediately prior to the explosion. Local authorities have also suggested that a nail bomb was used in the attack, which was designed to inflict mass-casualties.

As of 14 November, six deaths have been confirmed with a further 81 injured in the attack. Of those injured, 50 have been discharged from hospital, whilst the remainder are still being treated. Although Istiklal Caddesi has now reopened, having been closed in the immediate aftermath of the attack, there is an extensive police and security force presence in the area.

Turkish authorities announced on 14 November that a Syrian female suspect and a further 46 other individuals had been arrested following security raids at 21 different locations. Authorities have announced their belief that the perpetrator was a Syrian national, Ahlam Albahsir, who was trained as an intelligence officer by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the People Defence Units (YPG). Despite this announcement, the PKK’s military umbrella organization, the People’s Defense Center (HSM) has denied being involved in this attack. Syria’s Kurdish-led and US- backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have also denied involvement.

Whilst no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu claims that the attack was planned in Ayn al-Arab, a Kurdish- majority city in northern Syria. Soylu also stated that the attack was planned by the PKK/YPG, without offering evidence to support his claims. Despite the suspect’s alleged links to the PKK, Turkish officials have not ruled out an attack by the Islamic State (IS).

Solace Global Comment

The PKK is classed as a terror group by Turkey, the United States, the European Union, and since 1984 has been engaged in conflict with the Turkish State. Between 2015 and 2017, Turkey witnessed a string of attacks perpetrated by various Kurdish militia groups and IS. The attack on 13 November was the most recent terrorist incident in Istanbul since the January 2017 attack at the Reina nightclub in Ortakoy, which killed 39 people and was claimed by IS.

Istiklal street has also been attacked previously, with a suicide bombing in March 2016 killing five and wounding a further 36. In that instance, authorities initially blamed the PKK for the attack although subsequently confirmed that IS had been responsible.

The accusation by the Turkish authorities that the attack was planned by the PKK/YPG in northern Syria will very likely provide the justification for Turkey to launch a new cross-border operation into northern Syria. Since 2016, Turkish armed forces have been involved in northern Syria, targeting PKK/YPG forces. In May 2022 it was announced that Turkey’s planned fifth offensive in the region had been postponed, with some sources indicating this was due to pressure from other NATO allies. It therefore remains likely that Turkish authorities will seek to leverage anti-Kurdish sentiment in order to conduct limited offensive operations across the Syrian border in the short term.

In June 2023 Turkey will also hold general elections, which will include the election of the President of Turkey and elections to the country’s Grand National Assembly. Previous terror attacks between 2015 and 2017 are widely credited to have brought security issues to the forefront for the elections of 2018. It is highly likely that this attack will result in an increased focus on security in domestic political narratives in the short to medium term.

In the immediate short term, Istanbul and other major Turkish cities are likely to see an increase in the visible presence of police and security officials. Taksim square and Gezi park are the primary locations in Istanbul for civil unrest, protests and demonstrations, with an elevated security force posture in these areas very likely to remain advantageous to the Turkish authorities in the build up to the general elections next year.

Solace Global Advice

  • In the event of a terrorist attack those in the area are reminded to RUN – HIDE – TELL – FIGHT
  • Turkey has a notable risk of terrorism. Further attacks remain realistically possible, although the presence of additional security force personnel will likely mitigate the risk in the immediate term
  • Individuals with planned travel to Istanbul are advised to reconfirm itineraries and expect localised travel disruption, particularly in the immediate vicinity of the incident
  • Travellers are advised to avoid Istiklal Caddesi as emergency services remain on the scene to conduct their investigations
  • Further terror attacks in Istanbul are likely to be indiscriminate, targeting crowded areas, government or security force installations and personnel, civilians, transportation networks such as metro stations and ferry terminals, and other high-profile locations including sporting infrastructure
  • Locations where large groups of residents or tourists are known to gather are at higher risk of attack. You should be particularly vigilant in these areas and follow any specific advice or guidance from the local authorities or security personnel
  • Exercise increased caution, remain vigilant, be aware of your surroundings and report any suspicious activity or items to security personnel as soon as possible
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek immediate hard cover from any incoming gunfire or explosions and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place

Election violence in Kenya

Situation Summary of Election Violence in Kenya

On 15 August, violence erupted at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had been scheduled to release the results of the Kenyan general election. Live footage from the venue showed physical altercations breaking out between attendees, with military
personnel intervening to break up the violence.

Earlier on 15 August the IEBC had announced a delay in releasing the results, although did not specify a reason for the delay. Separately, four commissioners of the IEBC held a press conference at the Serena Hotel in Nairobi, in which they stated that they could not “take ownership of the results” due to concerns over their opaqueness. As the violent scenes emerged and news broke of the division within the IEBC, it
was announced that riot police across the country had been placed on standby, with Kenya’s highest bishop calling for calm and peace to prevail.

In the days since the 9 August election, the IEBC has been verifying the vote tallies provided by the country’s polling stations. In this interim period, both main presidential candidates have alluded to voting irregularities and of fighting the result in courts. Meanwhile, the delay between voting and the announcement of a result had only led to further speculation and disinformation around the legitimacy
of the vote.
Around 20 minutes after the initial chaotic scenes at the Bomas of Kenya, and despite four of the seven IEBC commissioners stating they could not back the results, the IEBC announced that William Ruto had won the election with 7,176,141 votes – amounting to 50.49 percent of the total valid votes. The pre-election favourite, Raila Odinga, received 6,942,930 votes – representing 48.85 percent of the votes cast.

Solace Global Comment

In 2007, post election violence resulted in more than 1,500 civilian deaths, whilst in 2017 at least fifty were killed and the election result was seen as so contentious that the country’s Supreme court ruled the vote should be re-run. Odinga has run for president on five occasions and has lost each time he has run.
He has also disputed the final election result following each loss, which set the conditions of suspicion and mistrust, and ultimately precipitated previous outbreaks of post-election violence. Given that Odinga was seen as the favourite to win the Presidency during the 2022 election, the closeness of the declared result and the inconsistency from the IEBC on 15 August, it is highly likely that he will once more
attempt to contest the election results.


Regardless of whether Odinga officially disputes the result, it is highly likely that his supporters will rally against the result. Any such unrest is highly likely to become violent. The city of Kisumu, which is home to a large pro-Odinga voting bloc, has already begun to see protests break out against alleged vote rigging, whilst in the Kibera area of Nairobi there are reports that riots have begun to break out. Further
unrest is likely to remain centred on the political centres of gravity in Nairobi, with the State House, Central Business District, and Serena Hotel all probable areas of unrest in the short term.

It is noteworthy that this was the first election in which there was no candidate from Kenya’s largest tribe, the Kikuyu. As a result, if election violence and unrest begins to spread across the country, there is a realistic possibility that it will avoid the traditional split along ethnic and tribal lines. Consequently, post-election violence may occur more widely across Kenya, as it would not be centred on tribal population centres, although it may be less extreme than levels observed during previous elections in which a Kikuyu candidate was participating.

Solace Global Advice

• Widespread unrest and violence remains possible in the short term. Travellers should avoid all demonstrations and large public gatherings as they may escalate quickly and without warning. Immediately vacate the area if caught in unrest.
• In the event of a significant security development, travellers in Kenya should follow any instructions issued by the Kenyan government or local authorities.
• Areas where political figures are known to gather are likely to be focal points for political activism and unrest, especially sites associated with the Presidential office or known protest hotspots. You should be particularly vigilant in these areas and follow any specific advice from the local security authorities.
• Expect localised travel disruption and an enhanced security force posture in the short-term. Allow for additional time when travelling in-country, as protest action and increased security force presence may result in road closures or blockades.
• Ensure that you always carry personal identification documents. Consider making photocopies of important documents in case of confiscation, theft or loss.​

• Make sure you are familiar with contact details for the emergency services in Kenya – dial 999 / 112 / 911 to request police, medical assistance or fire brigade.
• Exercise increased caution, remain vigilant, be aware of your surroundings and report any suspicious activity to security personnel as soon as possible.
• If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
• Report any suspicious items and behaviours to the nearest security or police officials.
• Monitor the Solace Secure platform and local media for updates.


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US speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan

A delegation of American politicians, including House Speaker and senior Democratic politician Nancy Pelosi, landed at Taipei Shongshan Airport in the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) on 2 August. The visit to Taiwan comes amidst an ongoing tour of the Asia-Pacific by the high-profile delegation, which has been conducted for the purpose of reaffirming American commitments to the region. Countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan were included on the official itinerary list, but the visit to Taiwan was hidden, likely out of concerns that any official confirmation would prompt a harsh response from the People’s Republic of China (PRC, or China).

Intelligence suggesting that Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan prompted a series of warnings from the Chinese government and state media broadcasters. China warned that any visit to Taiwan would be considered as a provocation that would necessitate a diplomatic and, in some communications, military response from Chinese authorities. Speculation of Nancy Pelosi’s visit prompted China to engage in aggressive military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait during the morning of 2 August, including the positioning of warships and aircraft along the contested Median Line. A Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack was later recorded against the website of Taiwan’s presidential office.

Four US Navy warships, including the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship, have been operating east of Taiwan. US officials have stressed that their positioning was prompted by a “routine deployment”, but US military authorities remain on high alert due to the increased risk of miscommunication and miscalculation stemming from the elevated number of both US and Chinese military assets in the region.

In response, Chinese authorities announced three-day military drills will commence near Taiwan from 4 August.

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan represents the most senior visit by a US official since the visit of House Speaker and Republican politician Newt Gingrich to  Taipei in 1997. Newt Gingrich’s visit prompted irritation within China but was tolerated at the time. Since 1997, however, China’s role in the global economy has grown exponentially, and China has begun to exercise a more assertive role in both regional and global diplomacy. There is now an increased willingness within the Chinese government to adopt a more hawkish stance towards Taiwan, which is actively considered to be one of China’s core national interests, alongside increasingly bellicose rhetoric regarding reunification.

Taiwanese self-governance and the perception of Taiwan as an integral territory of China has prompted the Chinese government to enforce a ‘One China’ policy in its global relations; a practice which the US has acknowledged since President Richard Nixon’s decision to thaw relations between the US and China in 1972. Despite this, the incumbent Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has accused US President Joe Biden of conducting a “fake” One China policy, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned the US “not to play with fire” over the legal and diplomatic status of Taiwan.

Although an invasion of Taiwan remains highly unlikely in the near-term due to the complexity of an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, geopolitical and economic impact, and the potential for US involvement in the conflict, Nancy Pelosi’s visit is certain to escalate tensions further and will very likely lead to an increased Chinese military presence in the region over the coming weeks. Chinese officials have likely calculated that there is a need to reassert Chinese credibility over their red lines in Taiwan, given the current trajectory of US-Taiwan relations. A further military response remains realistically possible, such as live-fire exercises, significant naval and aerial posturing off Taiwan, or potentially missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwanese response should be anticipated, and the potential for miscalculation should not be ruled out. China may also seek to conduct retaliatory actions towards the US through economic levers.

•In the event of a significant security development, travellers in Taiwan should follow any instructions issued by the Taiwanese government.

•Political tensions may disrupt airspace in both China and Taiwan. It is advised to monitor flight information and check with your travel provider if you are unsure of the status of your flight.

•Instances of civil unrest within Taiwan cannot be ruled out. Travellers should avoid all demonstrations and large public gatherings as they may escalate quickly and without warning.

•Areas where political figures are known to gather are likely to be focal points for political activism and unrest, especially sites due to be attended by Nancy Pelosi or other delegates. You should be particularly vigilant in these areas and follow any specific advice from the local security authorities.

•Expect localised travel disruption and an enhanced security force posture in the short-term as Taiwanese authorities increase measures to protect the US delegation.

• Be aware that China may seek to retaliate for Nancy Pelosi’s visit within the economic, cyber, and diplomatic domains, which could place additional restrictions on business operations and travel within China, Taiwan, and the wider region.

• Make sure you are familiar with contact details for the emergency services (in Taiwan – dial 110 for the police, 119 for medical assistance or the fire brigade).

• Exercise increased caution, remain vigilant, be aware of your surroundings and report any suspicious activity to security personnel as soon as possible.

• If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey the security cordon in place. 

• Report any suspicious items and behaviours to the nearest security or police officials. 

• Monitor the Solace Secure platform and local media for updates. 


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Alert Plus – Apparent Coup in Mali, President Keita Resigns

SITUATION SUMMARY: Apparent Coup in Mali

During a televised address, Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita resigned. The announcement comes after the president was detained by soldiers on Tuesday, 18 August. The country’s parliament has also been dissolved, plunging the country into political uncertainty. It remains unclear if the military is now officially in charge of the country.

The news of the president’s departure was met with jubilation by protesters in the country’s capital. Footage on social media and media websites show people dancing and cheering on military vehicles and soldiers as they move around Bamako. The Ministry of Justice building was also set alight in celebration.

All land and air borders in the country have been closed and a curfew has been implemented from 09:00 to 17:00 until further notice. Military leaders have pledged to set up a civilian transitional government, inviting the country’s civil society and political parties to join them to prepare for elections.

The driving force behind the apparent coup appears to have stemmed from mutinying soldiers who took control of the Kati military camp. The soldiers then moved on the capital and arrested the president, Prime Minister Boubou Cisse and other senior government officials. The numbers of those involved remains undetermined as well as who will now take the leadership of the government.

The events came following a long political crisis where opposition protesters have taken to the streets demanding the departure of Keita. Protesters have accused Keita of allowing the economy to collapse thus worsening the security situation across the country.

Foreign embassies have announced that citizens/travellers based in Bamako should remain indoors where possible and avoid protests, especially within the capital. The coup has been condemned by the European Union, African Union and the United Nations, as well as representatives of several countries.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Details surrounding the coup remain unclear, the mutiny appears to have started in Kati, similarly to the coup that occurred in 2012. The mutiny also comes off the back of ongoing protests that began on 5 June.

The country’s protests had been growing in recent weeks, with demonstrators complaining that not enough has been done to address the issues that the country faces. The protesters pointed fingers at those in charge for failing to adequately address the country’s struggling economy, improve job prospects, and fight corruption and the ongoing insurgency that is not only destabilising the country, but also the wider region.

Keita has, in 2013 when he won election by a landslide, vowed a zero-tolerance for corruption. However, the former president’s popularity has faded over time. While he was reelected in the 2018 presidential elections, they were marred by low turnout and fraud allegations, which created frustration among the public, particularly among the country’s youth.

The pressure on Keita has only grown since the beginning of the protests in June. With the fight against insurgents dragging on, despite French military support, poor economic prospects and violent protests, the former president’s position was becoming untenable. Indeed, regional mediators had arrived in Bamako to try and ease the unrest; however, the military decided to step in.

The coup represents a major setback for France. Paris has invested heavily in the country both financially and militarily with over $1 billion in funding and 5,000 soldiers. Many Malians are now calling on the French to withdraw their troops following the perceived lack of progress.

The instability created by the coup also heightens the risk that Islamic extremist insurgents and Tuareg rebels may look to exploit the situation. With the Malian military struggling to maintain control over large parts of the country, France has recently increased its efforts and is seeking increased European military support.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

  • If currently in the country, especially the capital and the surrounding area, travellers should remain indoors and minimize all movement for the time being.
  • Be aware that all land and air borders are currently closed, travel will be deferred until these restrictions have been lifted.
  • Avoid political and governmental buildings in Bamako due to the likelihood of unrest.
  • Ensure that you carry personal identification documents at all times. Consider making photocopies of important documents incase of confiscation, theft or loss.
  • Travellers should have a grab bag packed and ready, said bag should be carried whenever leaving your residence.
  • Review and update your escalation and evacuation plans for Mali, focusing on what protocols staff members should follow in the event there is major deterioration in the security environment.
  • Anticipate a heightened military presence throughout the city with additional security being reported near all major political and media buildings. Exercise vigilance and follow all official directives.
  • Travellers should follow local media and use the Solace Secure app to stay up to date with security-related events including potential protests, clashes or additional military deployment.

Piracy and Maritime Insecurity in the 21st Century

In 2010 Solace Global started out as Solace Global Maritime – providing armed security on vessels transiting the High Risk Piracy Area’s. Throughout the years the company has diversified its tasks ranging from anti-narcotics vessel searches in Colombia to bespoke Oil and Gas projects Globally. Solace Global Maritime supports a variety of tasks on a daily basis and with our in-house team of analysts we are able to report on events that could create change, threat or risk to our clients.

Here we look at piracy and maritime insecurities in the 21st Century. Maritime security is affected by a myriad of causes worldwide, including territorial disputes, conflict, environmental degradation and severe crime.

Despite years of national and international counter proliferation efforts, modern piracy remains a key issue affecting global maritime trade, as well as the oil & gas industry, and is present in most continents. Often concentrated around key transit and shipping routes and chokepoints, piracy and robbery at sea play a central role in fuelling instability and violence both on the water and on land.

Freedom and safety of navigation remain two of the core priorities for the international community, as evidenced by the effect of any threat of blockading one of the world’s straits or channels.This report aims at providing an overview of the main piracy hotspots, its root causes, impact and any efforts in combatting it.

MAIN TRIGGERS FOR MODERN PIRACY

POVERTY:Endemic poverty, unemployment and exploitation comparatively increase the profitability of piracy.

LAWLESSNESS: Lack of effective state control, law enforcement allows illegal activities and the expansion criminal networks both on land and sea.

CONFLICT: Prolonged warfare and internal conflict deteriorate governance, rule of law and state control, as well as day to day business functions. Maritime instability can also be advantageous for its tactical value.

RESOURCES: Critical resources such as oil & gas guarantee immediate profit in the black market. Also, the lack or depletion of key resources such as fishing stock, which are necessary for economic and societal sustainability, can also fuel illegality.

GEOGRAPHY: A complex and fragmented territorial composition, such as river deltas and vast archipelagos allow an easy escape for criminal elements and require high levels of manpower to be effectively policed by the authorities.

HORN OF AFRICA: THE FALL OF PIRACY AND RISE OF WAR

The Indian Ocean is considered the birthplace of modern piracy and armed robbery at sea. The proliferation of piracy led to the establishment of “High Risk Area” (HRA): a stretch of ocean off the coast of Somalia and Yemen that suffers from a level of piracy and it is considered critically dangerous for shipping and transit. The monitoring of the HRA is a concerted effort by maritime authorities and the global shipping and oil industries to minimise the threat of piracy: it requires vessels to adopt additional security measures (BMP5), including the use of armed guards, and to notify their passage to maritime authorities. Since 2008, the UN anti-piracy mandate has sanctioned international naval protection initiatives, as well as capacity building efforts on land.

The causes of Somali piracy are fundamentally rooted in the country’s crisis, its lack of rule of law and high level of poverty concentrated in the coastal communities. The collapse of the regime in 1991 led to a loss of control and effective policing of the country’s waters. This allowed activities like smuggling, illegal fishing and piracy to foster and further erode the rule of law in peripheral areas.

As the illegal fishing depleted the Somali fish stocks, local fishermen were increasingly attracted by the profitability of piracy. The influx of money generated by hijacking, kidnappings and robberies at sea greatly destabilised the economy and increased the cost of living, pushing even more fishing communities to embrace illegality. In this sense, while the international maritime efforts have succeeded in drastically reducing the incident rates, they only represent a short-term solution, ultimately ineffective without addressing the core issues on land.

The war in Yemen also represents a source of maritime instability in the region. This is, however, mostly unrelated to piracy and rather motivated by strategic considerations in the ongoing civil war. The Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, causes vessels to transit in the vicinity of Houthi-controlled coastal territories. While Houthi forces have refrained from deliberately threaten the shipping lines, they have conducted maritime attacks against vessels belonging to the Saudi-led coalition, the opposing faction in the civil war.

GULF OF GUINEA: THE WORLD’S MOST DANGEROUS WATERS

While the Somali coast has historically represented the world’s piracy hotspot, in recent years it has been overshadowed by the increasingly dangerous pirate activities in the Gulf of Guinea. The oil and gas-rich region of West Africa lacks the necessary refineries to process its production and the continuous exports of crude oil have represented a profitable market for robberies at anchorage points and illegality on the high seas.

Moreover, the basic economic inequalities within these societies have led to only a small elite benefiting from the oil & gas exploitation, creating a disenfranchised and exploited coastal population that turned to “Petro-Piracy”

The extreme fluctuations in market prices have, however, caused the West African pirates to transition towards the more profitable kidnap for ransom operations. The size of the Gulf, with its 6,000km long coastline, represent an area that is extremely hard to police, while the lack of an effective and coordinated effort by regional stakeholders has allowed piracy and armed robbery at sea to grow exponentially.

Moreover, the geography of areas such as the Niger Delta allows for a quick escape through its multitude of inlets, rivers and mangroves, where most of the illegal refineries and black-market centres are based.

While the condition of crisis and conflict in East Africa has allowed for integrated efforts by international navies and a subsequent reduction of piracy, the stronger governance and rule of law in countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea has led to the resistance of most foreign maritime protection initiatives, which are perceived as a violation of national sovereignty.

SOUTH EAST ASIA: PIRATES AND INSURGENTS

South East Asia has been the theatre of the oldest forms of piracy. Dating back to the 19th century, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, as well as the vast archipelagos, have represented perfect hunting grounds for pirates. Now, the 800km long Straits, hosts 1/3 of the maritime commerce worldwide and 1/4 of the global oil trade, consisting in mostly imports from China and Japan. While most of the attacks in recent years are related to occasional crime, such as looting and robberies, the more complex efforts in the past have caused multimillion losses in oil revenue, consisting in large-scale military-like operations. International naval efforts have been successful in reducing the number of incidents, but, due to the vastness of the South East Asian waters, the issue persists.

In 2016, an Asian contingent of the so-called Islamic State established a territorial enclave in the southern Filipino city of Mindanao and caused an entirely new type of piracy to spread in the Borneo area. The vicinity of the archipelagos allowed a network of active and sleeping cells to develop and unify under the leadership of Aby Sayyaf’s Isnilon Hapilon.

With the small island formations facilitating movement and populated by impoverished fishermen, the IS introduced the concept of kidnap for ransom. This method was commonly used in the Middle East caliphate to finance ISIL activities and, due to the large influx of foreign fighters and Asian combatants, the knowledge was applied to the regional context of South East Asia. The Islamic State would encourage local fishermen to kidnap vessels and tourists in exchange for a small section of the profit, causing incidents to skyrocket in the years between 2016 and 2017.

To effectively police the Borneo area, being removed from the main shipping routes going to the South China Sea, represented an unjustifiable cost to regional government until the criminality developed into a complex and lethal operation. It was, however, an effort conducted mainly on land and that resulted in the notorious Marawi siege against the Asian caliphate. While IS piracy has been effectively reduced, occasional incidents continue to take place.

CENTRAL AMERICA: NARCOTRAFFICKING AND CIVIL UNREST

Central America and the Caribbean also represent another of the world’s piracy hotspots, characterised by widespread illegality on land that spills over to the seas, as well as the Venezuelan crisis, which plays a key role in the deteriorating security environment.

The region’s piracy has revolved around a different type of criminality, connected to the illegal activities on land and, in particular, the northbound smuggling of drugs and weapons. The endemic issues of organised crime, poor state control and widespread poverty, as well as the proximity of the islands has allowed the establishment of a Caribbean route to Florida. While the American war on drugs has been successful in demolishing sea-based narcotrafficking routes, it also fuelled violence and crime, causing states like Honduras and Guatemala to reach levels of violence comparable to active warzones.

As seen in the African continent, the high levels of poverty and unemployment in the region play a direct role in encouraging more desperate measures to obtain profit, such as armed robbery.

More recently, however, the political instability, unrest and economic crisis raging throughout Venezuela has become the centre of maritime violence in the region. As the economy collapses, the criminality in the Caribbean seas allows Venezuelan citizens to smuggle goods, food and currency in the country, devastated by inflation levels that risk causing mass starvation amongst the poorest parts of the population.

Desperate coastal communities, suffering from a disastrous attempt by former president Hugo Chavez to nationalise the fishing industry, have increasingly targeted other fishermen, oil rigs and yachts anchored in proximity to Venezuelan waters.

The growing availability of firearms, the spreading lawlessness and the presence of critical resources such as oil & gas is likely to continue to elevate the Venezuelan threat level, unless serious international action is taken.

Fujairah Incident – Maritime Brief

Executive Summary

According to the latest intelligence, on 12 May, four ships were targeted, two Saudi vessels and two others, off the coast of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Speculation remains rife regarding who was behind the attack, with US Intelligence blaming Iranian backed proxies. Despite continued social media chatter stating that the attack happened in the port of Fujairah, it appears the vessels were targeted off the Emirati coast. Regardless, operations at the port of Fujairah continue to function normally and have suffered no interruptions. At this time, there is no clear evidence to suggest that Iran or any other actor was behind the incidents; however, Iranian backed proxies are believed to be the main suspect. There have also been no official claims of responsibility.

The Incident

The precise nature of the incident still remains unclear at this time. There continues to be a large amount of misinformation on social media stating that an attack occurred in Fujairah port. Indeed, any attack on the port has been denied by the port authorities, and both locals and port workers that have been contacted by Solace Global have stated that it does not appear that any major attack occurred in the port.

Instead, at this time, it appears that four tankers were attacked off the coast of Fujairah. It appears that these vessels, all oil tankers, were subject to some sort of “sabotage” attack whilst anchored near Fujairah; and not in the port.

At the time of writing, there have been no reports of injuries or fatalities on board the vessels and one photo appears to show a light spill of some kind; however, the authenticity of the image could not be verified. The UAE foreign ministry has declared that all acts of sabotage on civilian vessels which threatens the safety of those on board “is a serious development”. Investigations into the incident remain ongoing and, at this time, no group or actor has been blamed for the attack and no suspects have been identified; likewise, no group has claimed the attacks. Though US officials are speculating that Iran-backed proxies have some responsibility in the attacks.

Capture - Map east UAE

The Iranian Foreign Minister has stated that the incident was “alarming and regrettable”. A senior Iranian MP has also stated that the saboteurs appear from “a third country” and has urged a probe into the incident. The UAE Ministry of Energy has stressed the need for increased cooperation within the international community, who are responsible to ensure the safety and security of oil tankers in the region, due to the possible serious impacts on the world economy should navigation in the area be disrupted.

International

An important note in the incident is that the UAE was flooded with media reports linked to Russia and Iranian servers and social media accounts that claimed the attack occurred on land at Fujairah’s port. While it remains unclear if these fake reports were part of the attack, they included that “seven to ten tankers were in flames”. There were also claims of the US or other aircraft flying over the port at the time. These claims were immediately refuted by the UAE government and the Fujairah port authorities. The Iranian state-funded broadcaster Press TV used the incident as an opportunity to link the “attacks” with the ongoing war in Yemen. Regardless, the incident appears to show a concentrated effort to spread misinformation during and after the incidents.

US Deployment

The incident comes at a time of heightened tension in the region. The US has deployed a carrier battle group, B-52 strategic bombers and patriot defence missile systems to the Persian Gulf. The deployment by the US is understood to be in response to a possible threat to US forces in the region by Iran in response to the increasing tensions over the collapse of the Iran deal.

The deployment of the forces increases the risk of a “miscalculation” by military forces in the Gulf. It is feared that an incident between the two countries’ navies could result in an escalation in the region, including a possible military confrontation. It has also increased the rhetoric from both sides with Iran describing the deployment as a potential “target” and not a threat. Indeed, a former US defence official warned on 12 May that the threat of a miscalculation by either side was now a very “real risk”.

Threat to Vessels in the Region

Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf have been a rare occurrence since 1991. Saudi Arabia did not halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the 1981-88 conflict between Iraq and Iran when both sides attacked vessels in the Gulf; in what was known as the “tanker war”. Additionally, oil exports continued during the first Gulf War in 1990-91. The risk to tankers in the Straits of Hormuz region remains LOW for the time being. However, additional incidents or attacks will alter the security environment greatly, likely leading to the deployment of additional maritime assets by numerous countries, which, in turn, raises the risk of an international incident.

The most notable recent incident was in 2010, when a Japanese tanker, the M. Star, was damaged in an explosive attack whilst docked around 14 miles (22 kilometres) off the coast of Fujairah, UAE. This attack was claimed by the Brigades of Abdullah Azzam, a militant jihadist group. More recently, in September 2018, the Saudi military reportedly foiled attacks by Houthi militants at Jizan’s port. According to reports, the military foiled an attack by two explosives-laden remote-controlled boats at the port. The attacks were reportedly in response to Saudi air raids in Yemen. Additionally, in July 2018 a UAE navy vessel was reportedly attacked off the coast of Yemen by Houthi rebels. The vessel is understood to have caught fire and was close to sinking following the attack. Finally, in 2016, Houthi rebels attempted to hit a US destroyer that was launching cruise missiles on rebel positions.

The nearby Straits of Hormuz is bordered by Iran, Oman and the UAE and is the single most important waterway for global oil shipments; making it an attractive target for sabotage or other forms of attack on oil shipments. However, due to the waterway’s strategic importance, it is also one of the most heavily patrolled regions in the world; with significant American naval assets already in the area, not to mention the deployment of a new carrier group.

Global Security Forecast: Week 49

TOGO: Nationwide (Moderate) – Nationwide: Anticipate heightened security; disruption, following ban on opposition protest The Togolese government have banned all opposition protests and rallies in the build up to the 20 December legislative elections stating fears over public disorder.  Demonstrations had been planned by opposition leaders in urban centres throughout the country from 8 December to 18 December calling for the deferral of the election process to allow for constitutional reforms.  Fourteen opposition political parties, who make up the main opposition collation, denounced electoral irregularities and subsequently did not submit candidates for the upcoming elections.  Togo has been engulfed in political crisis over the last year with regular demonstrations calling for the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, who has ruled the country since 2005 following the death of his father.  The three main religious institutes in Togo have backed calls to postpone the December elections, questioning the transparency and accountability of the current ballot process. ADVICE: Opposition groups are likely to defy the government order and continue with planned protests in major urban centres leading to localised clashes with security forces. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. ARMENIA: Yerevan, Urban Centres (Low) – Snap parliamentary elections due to be held on 9 December, unrest possible Following acting Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, decision to resign and dissolve parliament, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has announced that snap elections will be held on 9 December.  The decision comes a month after tens of thousands of people protested in the Armenia capital, Yerevan, against a bill that would make it increasingly difficult for the prime minister to call for new elections.  Armenia experienced a peaceful revolution in May this year when hundreds of thousands of people protested the perceived corruption and cronyism within Armenia’s ruling class, forcing the Prime Minister, Serzh Sargsyan, to resign. ADVICE: While protests generally pass of peacefully, travellers should avoid all election-related gatherings as a precaution, Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Jordan:  Amman (Moderate) – Heightened security; travel disruption expected as protests over new tax laws persist In the latest in a series of protests, hundreds of Jordanians took to the streets in the capital Amman on 6 December to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz.  This is the third such protest in Amman following the governments introduction of International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed austerity measures that have ended bread subsidies and increased taxes.  The measures are expected to disproportionately impact low to mid-income earners, reinforcing already existing inequality within the country.  Yesterday’s protest occurred at 17.00 (local time) near Amman’s 4th circle. Demonstrators attempted to march from the courtyard of Jordan Hospital to the 4th circle roundabout.    Security forces intervened to stop protesters marching on the roundabout and disrupting traffic at rush hour.  Protests are likely to persist in the coming weeks and clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Avoid all protests as a precaution due to the risk of travel disruption. Violent clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out.  Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Thailand: Countrywide (Low) – Cycling event to cause significant travel disruption, road closures in city centre on 9 December More than 85,000 people have signed up to take part in the Bike Un Ai Rak cycling event on 9 December taking place in the Thai capital, Bangkok.  The event is due to begin at 15.00 (local time), with road closures expected from 12.00 to 19.00 on the day.  Public transport, including buses, sky trains, subways, and expressways will be overcrowded as ticket prices have been waived for those taking part in the event.  Residual travel disruption is expected throughout the city.  Cyclists will begin their ride at the Dusit Palace before making their way south through the city to  Lat Pho Park, south of the Chao Phraya River, they will then return on a similar route.  Up to 25 major roads in central Bangkok with remain closed for the duration of the event and travellers are advised to avoid road travel in central Bangkok. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key event locations to minimise disruption. United Kingdom: London (Low) – Pro-Brexit rally on 9 December likely to cause travel disruption in central London, counter protests expected Thousands of people are expected to attend a pro-Brexit rally demanding there is no ‘betrayal’ by politicians when they vote on Teresa May’s current deal to leave the European Union (EU).  The current proposal on the terms of the divorce between the EU and Great Britain has angered several pro-Brexit politicians who argue the deal is not reflective of what the country voted on during the referendum.  Protesters will meet at the Dorchester hotel in Park Lane before marching on Whitehall, where the rally will be staged.  Far-right politician Tommy Robinson, aka Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, and UKIP leader, Gerard Batten are expected to speak at the event.  A counter-protest has been organised and will run concurrently to the pro-Brexit protest.  While the Metropolitan police have made a statement ensuring that policing will be upscaled in the protest-affected areas, clashes between rival supporters cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between rival protesters in the past, if you are caught near a protest, leave the area immediately, return to a safe location and follow the direction of the local authorities

GLOBAL HEADLINES: 30 – 06 December 2018

IRAN: Chabahar (Moderate) – Car bomb kills four and injures at least 40 in south eastern port city on 6 November A vehicle-born improvised explosive device was detonated outside the police headquarters in the south eastern port city of Chabahar (Sistan e Baluchistan province), killing four police officer and injuring at least 40 people.  The suicide bomber drove a vehicle laden with explosives at the headquarters but failed to reach the target before detonating the explosives.  Local police officers stationed at a check point outside the building have been commended for stopping the vehicle from reaching its intended target. Ansar al-Fuqran, a Sunni Baloch militant group who want autonomy from Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack.  Iran’s Sistan e Baluchistan province, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, is one of two majority Sunni provinces in Shia dominated Iran and is populated by ethnic Baloch’s who identify closely with the Baluchistan province in Pakistan.  Sistan e Baluchistan suffers one of the highest rates of poverty in the country, remains severely underdeveloped and is largely cut off from the political scene in Tehran.  Livelihoods are centred around cross border smuggling with Pakistan which Iranian security forces are increasingly trying to stop.  While such attacks remain rare due to the capability of Iranian security forces in the region, there remains a persistent threat of terrorist and militant attacks in the region. ADVICE: Travel to Sistan e Baluchistan should be only be considered for business-critical purposes only due to the threat posed by kidnapping, criminality and terrorist attacks.  Organisation’s should work with a local trusted partner to ensure they receive the correct documentation to travel to the region.  Travellers in the province should minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. UKRAINE: Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts (Moderate) – Ukraine’s security forces carry out raids on Russia Orthodox churches; tensions remain elevated Ukraine’s security forces conducted a series of raids on 3 December targeting Orthodox Churches and the homes of Orthodox priests.  Up to eight searches were conducted by security forces in Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts and appeared to target churches who had rejected the recent independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, pledging their allegiance to the Russian branch of the Orthodox church.  The Ukrainian security forces stated that the searches were in response to recent allegations that certain churches were inciting hatred and violence throughout their congregations.  Up to 20 priests have been summoned for questioning by police forces in recent days.  The raids are likely to spark protests by members of the Russian Orthodox church in the coming days and further provoke the already tense political standoff between Russia and Ukraine. ADVICE: Travel to Ukraine remains possible however travellers should stay up to date with local news and regional developments. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any changes in the security environment or travel restrictions in the local area.  Russian males age 16 to 60 remain unable to travel Ukraine at the present time and martial law is in effect till in the ten regions bordering Russia.  Read our latest travel advisory on the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine following the Kerch Strait incident. AFGHANISTAN: Kabul (Severe) – Parliamentary election results found to be invalid, protest likely Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) announced on 6 December that all votes cast in Kabul during the October parliamentary elections are invalid citing 25 conduct reasons for the decision, including mismanagement and fraud.  The findings will now be reviewed by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC).  According to the Afghan constitution, if the findings are ratified by the IEC, the Election Commission will have seven days to arrange secondary polls.  Only 14 of the 33 provinces have announced the official results following the ballot that took place on 20 October, casting doubts on the credibility of the election process.  The announcement by the IECC is expected to be met with anger by Kabul residents and will likely lead to protests in the capital in the coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts.  Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency.

SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date Country Event Potential for Violence
9 Dec Armenia Parliamentary Elections LOW
9 Dec Peru Constitutional Referendum MODERATE
9 Dec Tanzania Independence Day LOW
10 Dec Libya Presidential and Parliamentary elections (Postponed) HIGH
12 Dec Kenya Jamhuri Day (Independence Day) LOW
16 Dec Bahrain National Day LOW
16 Dec Kazakhstan Independence Day LOW
16 Dec Togo Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform MODERATE
17 Dec Bhutan National Day NEGLIGIBLE
18 Dec Qatar National Day NEGLIGIBLE
19 Dec Madagascar Second round of presidential vote HIGH
20 Dec Togo Legislative elections MODERATE
22 Dec Iraq Provincial elections HIGH
30 Dec DRC Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections HIGH
30 Dec Bangladesh Parliamentary elections HIGH

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast Week 49 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

One Day Ahead Challenge: Supporting the Tour of Britain

Solace Global will provide tracking support to Phil Jones, the managing director of Brother UK, who will ride the entire 2018 OVO Energy Tour of Britain route one day ahead of the race with cancer survivor and cycling world record holder James Golding. With Solace Global’s tracking app, downloadable from the App Store (Solace Secure), the support team and fans alike can keep track of where Phil and James are on each route of the challenge.

The Challenge

To raise £50,000 for the Dave Rayner Fund, a voluntary organisation supporting young British riders in their dream of turning professional. Some of Britain’s most successful cyclists, including Grand Tour stage winners Adam Yates (Mitchelton-SCOTT) and David Millar enjoyed the support of the fund at a critical stage in their careers.

This year Solace Global has supported Vitus Pro Cycling, a professional UK-based cycle team. The team Director Sportive Cherie Pridham, the only female team owner and manager in the British peloton, will support Phil Jones MBE’s Tour of Britain One Day Ahead fundraising ride as sporting director.

Pridham, who rode 10 Grand Tours in an era of epic races for the women’s sport, and whose managerial expertise has yielded victories in some of the most prestigious races on the domestic calendar, including the Lincoln Grand Prix, will be a vital presence in the convoy of support vehicles for Jones’ 1,140-kilometre ride.

Solace Global

Solace Global protect thousands of people and assets all over the world, with 24/7 intelligence, tracking, assistance, in-country support and response services. In recent years, as global threats have become less predictable, even employees being sent to traditionally ‘safe’ destinations need security preparation, pushing risk management, resilience and duty of care into the limelight for their client base, which includes Corporates, NGO’s, HNWs, Scholastics, Media Groups and Insurers.

Solace Global build bespoke travel risk management solutions to support Duty of Care delivery, a comprehensive approach that extends even to tactical, on-the-ground support when environments become unworkable, and which empower businesses to operate in complex environments. They protect people, assets and reputation, and enable business continuity.

Emily Roberts, Managing Director of Solace Global Risk, said:

“We are delighted to support Phil (Jones) and James (Golding) on their ride for such a worthwhile cause. We got involved with Vitus Pro Cycling as road cycling’s demographic is in perfect alignment with the demographic of people we want to speak to in our business. This road has led us to supporting a great cause and enables us to raise the profile of The Dave Rayner Fund as well as our own business in support of someone who has committed an incredible amount of time and energy to the sport. Good luck!”

Week 30 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

22 July 18: UPDATE Attack Reported near Baraawe, Somalia. A merchant vessel conducting resupply operations to African Union forces was attacked by mortar fire on approach to Baraawe. The attackers were believed to be Al Shabaab insurgents. No significant harm to the vessel or crew was reported. 25 July 18: UPDATE Saudi Vessel Attacked near Al Hudaydah. Houthi rebels conducted attacks against two Saudi tankers transiting the Red Sea. The Saudi coalition reported that the attack was conducted with explosive-laden fast boats. Neither vessel suffered severe damage, and all crew were reported safe. The Saudi state oil producer indicated that they intend to suspend oil shipments through the Bab el Mandeb in order to minimise the threat to their vessels.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

28 July 18: Spanish Coastguard Rescue 1,000 Migrants in Two Days. A significant spike in attempted migrant crossings between Morocco and Spain resulted in maritime rescue services recovering upwards to 1,000 migrants between 26 and 28 July. Vessels transiting the area may experience disruption from ongoing rescue operations. There is no indication why this two day period attracted so many crossing attempts.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

24 July 18: IMB Report Shows Gulf of Guinea as Kidnap Hotspot. The International Maritime Bureau’s quarterly report confirmed that the Gulf of Guinea was the only area in which crew kidnap incidents were reported through 2018 to date. The report also assessed that significant numbers of kidnaps, beyond the 25 reported, have taken place. Crews are advised to maintain a high level of awareness throughout the region and make all efforts to report criminal activity.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

26 July 18: Attempted Boarding from Vessel near Bontang, Indonesia. Duty crew members spotted robbers seeking to climb the hawse pipe of a vessel at 00°04’S 117°35’E. The crew mustered and raised the alarm, forcing the robbers to flee empty handed
Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 30 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 30 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 30

Headlines From This Week

  • Pakistan Election – Former cricket player Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf won the Pakistan election held on 25 July and he is set to lead the country (in a coalition), despite claims of vote-rigging and military involvement in the vote. The election has been bitterly fought and seen multiple cases of violence. Notably, 31 people were killed after a bomb blast near a polling station in Quetta on polling day. Khan campaigned as a populist and if he governs as one also, this is likely to have a profound impact on Pakistan’s future. 
  • Terror Attack in Syria – More than 200 people have been killed after a surprise Islamic State offensive on the city of Sweida and surrounding villages on 25 July. People were reportedly slaughtered in their homes in the early hours of the morning. The area, populated mostly by the Druze minority sect, has largely been spared by fighting during the civil war. Many have suggested that the attack marks an attempt by the terror group to encourage other non-state rebels to join their anti-government cause, but this seems unlikely. 
  • Dam Bursts in Laos – 26 have been killed and 6,000 evacuated from their homes when Laos’s Xepian Xe Nam Noy hydroelectric dam collapsed on the evening of 23 July. The dam, still under construction, in Attapeu province was a multi-billion-dollar project and partly financed by South Korea. In neighbouring Cambodia, 25,000 people were evacuated in Stung Treng in preparation for flood waters heading downstream. 
  • Shooting in Toronto – Islamic State has claimed responsibility for a deadly shooting incident in Toronto on 22 July. The attack in the Greektown area of the city left two dead (one of which was the shooter, who killed himself) and 13 wounded. Investigators have suggested that there is no evidence to link the shooter with the Jihadist group at this stage. The shooting has opened up a debate about gun ownership in Canada. 
  • Deadly Greek Wildfires – At least 83 people have been killed by wildfires this week in Greece, a death toll which is expected to rise. The government’s response to the country’s worst-ever wildfire disaster has been criticised. The Greek Defence Minister claimed that illegal construction contributed to the wildfire and was met with angry crowds in Mati, a hard-hit area. The flames spread quickly thanks to 100km/h winds. 
  • Saudi Vessels Attacked – Saudi Arabia is suspending oil shipments through the Red Sea shipping lane of Bab al-Mandeb after two of its vessels were attacked by the Houthi rebels from the port of Al Hudaydah on 25 July. The strait, where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden, is only around 19km wide, making vessels potentially easy targets. The move has caused the global price of oil to rise.

 What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Final Stage of the 2018 Tour de France – Le Tour de France finally makes its way to Paris after three weeks of cycling across France. The final stage, on 29 July, routinely causes travel disruption in the French capital. The Champs-Elysees will be closed to traffic from 0900hrs to 2300hrs on 29 July and bus routes in the vicinity of the race will experience disruption from 1530hrs to 19:00hrs. 
  • ECOWAS & ECCAS Summit in Lomé – A summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) will take place in the Togolese capital of Lomé on July 30. The summit will provide an opportunity to discuss ways to fight terrorism and extremism. Increased security measures are anticipated in the city during the summit. Demonstrations, which have been ongoing in Togo since last year, are possible despite the government’s blanket ban from 23 July to 01 August. Expect enhanced security measures in the city.
  • Further General Strike in Haiti – Civil society groups in the Caribbean nation of Haiti have called for a nationwide general strike on 30 July. Activists are demanding that President Moise steps down and that police release anti-government protesters. There is a significant potential for violence given Haiti’s recent history. A fuel subsidy tax protest in early July 2018 led to days of clashes between police and protesters. 
  • Typhoon Jongdari to Hit Japan – Typhoon Jongdari, the 12th typhoon to form this year, is set to hit Japan’s main island of Honshu between 28 and 29 July, the Ogasawara Islands on 27 July, and the Izu Islands on 28 July. Jongdari is predicted to make landfall as the equivalent of a category three hurricane. Up to 24-hours of consistent, heavy rainfall is expected to occur in Honshu. This typhoon comes on the back of a deadly heatwave which may increase the impact of flash flooding, mudslides, and storm surge flooding.
  • Pride Festivals – There a series of significant upcoming LGBT+ Pride events in Amsterdam, the Netherlands (28 July to 05 August), EuroPride in Stockholm, Sweden (27 July to 05 August), and Brighton, United Kingdom (03 to 05 August). Travellers in these locations should expect travel disruption in these areas.
  • European Championship – The inaugural multisport European Championships are set to take place between 02 and 12 August in Glasgow, Scotland (hosting Aquatics, Cycling, Gymnastics, Rowing and Triathlon along with a new European Golf Team Championships) and the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany which will host the track and field athletics.

Significant Dates And Events

  • 25-29 July – France – Les Fetes de Bayonne
  • 27 to 29 – Hungary – Formula One race weekend in Budapest
  • 28 July – Peru – Independence Day
  • 28 July – Brazil – Pro-Lula rally to be held in Rio de Janeiro
  • 28 July – United Kingdom – Eurostar staff at St Pancreas station to strike
  • 28 July – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally planned in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Kirov
  • 28 July – South Korea – Anti-refugee rally in Seoul
  • 28 July – Australia – Environmental activists to rally in Gold Coast
  • 28 to 29 July – Canada – Section of highway 417 near Ottawa to close
  • 29 July – Mali – Presidential Election
  • 29 July – Cambodia – General Election
  • 30 July – Comoros – Constitutional Referendum
  • 30 July – Morocco – National/Throne Day
  • 30 July – Zimbabwe – General Election
  • 31 July – Algeria – Air Algerie maintenance workers to strike
  • 31 July – South Africa – Gautrain workers to strike
  • 31 July to 06 August – Mexico – Mexicable to suspend some services in Mexico City
  • 01 August – Benin – Independence Day
  • 01 August – Switzerland – National Day (some events take place the preceding evening)
  • 01 August – Ghana – Public sector rally in Accra
  • 02 August – Guyana – Freedom Day
  • 02 August – Macedonia (FYROM) – Republic Day
  • 02 August – Tunisia – SNCFT rail workers to strike
  • 03 August – El Salvador – Fiesta de San Salvador
  • 03 August – Equatorial Guinea – Armed Forces Day
  • 03 August – Senegal – Protest over water shortages in Dakar
  • 03 August – Ireland – Ryanair pilots’ strike
  • 03 August – Niger – Independence Day
  • 03 to 04 August – United Kingdom – London Underground staff to strike
  • 04 August – Burkina Faso – Revolution Day
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF:  Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 30 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 30 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Jakarta Palembang Asian Games 2018: Risk Advisory

The 2018 Jakarta Palembang Asian Games is set to begin on 18 August 2018. Travel to the country brings a unique set of challenges and issues to overcome. For more on the Games, how to prepare and, what to expect when travelling to Indonesia, please take a look at our risk summary below or download this information as a PDF from the following link: 2018 Jakarta Palembang Asian Games – Event Advisory. Estimated Population: 9.6 million (Jakarta, 2016 estimated) Geographic Area: 6,392 km² (Jakarta metro)   Language: Indonesian (Bahasa) and more than 700 other   languages Religion: Six recognised religions – Islam, Protestantism,   Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and   Confucianism Climate: Tropical UTC: +7 (Jakarta) Currency: Indonesia rupiah Emergency Services112 or 110 (police), 113 (fire), 118 (medical),  Tourist police (Jakarta): (021) 526 4073 

2018 ASIAN GAMES KEY FACTS

COUNTRIES: 45 At the time of writing, 45 National Olympic Committees have confirmed attendance at the Asian Games. Competing associations include ‘Independent Asian Athletes’. ATHLETES: 11,000 An estimated 11,000 athletes are expected to participate in the Games. By some estimates, they are the largest multi-sport event after the Olympic Games. Some 5,000 media personnel are also set to attend. TICKETS: 1.3 MILLION 1.3 million tickets are set to be made available to spectators, with more available if early sales are strong. The average ticket price is set to be $7, with prices as low as $2 for some events. Indonesian officials are hoping to attract as many as 170,000 foreign tourists for the Games. SECURITY: 100,000  Organisers have confirmed that 100,000 security personnel will be deployed in Jakarta, Palembang and West Java, where several events are taking place. A further 30,000 volunteers are also set to be mobilised. EVENTS: 462 There are 462 events to be held in the games in 40 sports and 63 disciplines, in everything from aquatics to wushu, and fencing to rugby. This marks the first Asian Games with events held across two cities – Jakarta and Palembang.

SECURITY CONCERNS

Criminality: Most crime impacting travellers in Jakarta, and Indonesia as a whole, is low-level petty crime, though it is the most likely threat to travellers in Indonesia. While figures suggest that criminal activity as a whole is on the decrease, violent crime has risen marginally. This increase has been attributed to the prevalence of unregistered firearms, although these are typically only used if a victim offers resistance. There have been reports of drink-spiking in Jakarta. This may lead to assault, sexual assault, or robbery. Do not allow food or drink to be left unattended and do not accept food or drink from a stranger. Indonesia has very severe penalties for drug crimes. Foreigners have been subjected to capital punishment for drug-trafficking sentences. Thefts of vehicles, particularly motorcycles, or from parked vehicles occur frequently. Cars parked at unsecured locations are particularly attractive targets. Police services have limited responses to crime in Indonesia. Police forces are under-funded and are plagued by corruption. Crime is particularly prevalent in the following areas: Tanjung Priok – Jembatan Tiga – Pluit toll road, the Jagorawi toll road, Galur, Gambir station, Lapangan Banteng, Matraman, Taman Suropati, Gunung Sahari, Senen, Kuningan Pondok Labu, Pancoran, Blok M, Jalan Sisingamangaraja, the junctions at Tomang, Slipi, Grogol, Jalan Daan Mogot and Jalan Kyai Tapa, Cililitan, around Taman Mini, Klender and Jalan Pemuda, Ancol and Pluit. Terrorism: Terrorism is a persistent threat in Indonesia, however, instances have reduced significantly since 2010 following successful counter-terror policies and operations. Jakarta’s most recent terror attack occurred in June 2017, when an assailant attacked two police officers at a mosque near the National Police headquarters in South Jakarta. The most significant recent incident in Jakarta occurred in January 2016. At least four militants reportedly detonated explosives in or near a Starbucks in central Jakarta before destroying a nearby police post with grenades, killing at least three men. An exchange of gunfire ensued when police arrived shortly afterwards. Attacks are likely to target Western and non-Muslim locations (such as churches) and are more likely to occur on days of significance – Christmas, during Ramadan etc. This is shown by the June 2018 attacks on churches in Surabaya. Terror attacks may involve various different tactics. In the recent past, terror groups have used grenades, bombs, knives, vehicles, and guns. Security at locations including western hotels has been increased substantially to combat potential threats. Corruption: Corruption is a longstanding, widespread, and systemic issue. The police (as mentioned) and judiciary are notoriously corrupt and are likely to request bribes or find in the favour of an Indonesian if in a case against a foreigner. Travellers have reported that customs and immigration officials have demanded bribes in order to gain entry into the country. Officials and police officers are more likely to request bribes during and before festivals. This trend is likely to be exhibited prior to, and during, the Asian Games. Civil Unrest: There are underlying religious, political, and ethnic tensions in Indonesia and Jakarta is the most common location for unrest. The government has mandated that all demonstrations should occur between 0600 and 1800hrs and at three locations – Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Senayan, the Alun-alun Demokrasi civic square in the parliament complex in South Jakarta; and near the National Monument in Central Jakarta. However, protests can and have occurred at the Hotel Indonesia roundabout, the presidential palace, the House of Representatives complex on Jalan Gatot Subroto, Grand Mercure Hotel, Merdeka Square, government offices such as the Corruption Eradication Commission and the US embassy. All protests should be avoided as there is the potential for violence. In the event of Christian-Muslim tension, travellers should avoid sites with Christian significance, including the cathedral in Monas. Cybersecurity: Credit card fraud is common. Criminals sometimes place a fake telephone number on ATMs advising customers to report problems. Customers dialling the number are asked for their PIN and their card is then retained within the machine. Most incidents involve employees of small businesses recording the details of the credit card or swiping it through a skimmer. Travellers should only use cards in reputable establishments and should never allow their card to be taken out of their sight. Indonesia’s response to cybercrime is not coordinated or efficient despite the establishment of a cybercrime policing unit in 2018. Travellers are advised to employ enhanced cybersecurity measures while in country. Unsecured WiFi hotspots are especially at risk and should be avoided.

EVENT LOCATION INFORMATIOn

There will be four venue clusters for the 18th Asian Games: 1.Gelora Bung Karno Sports Complex – This area is home to the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium which will host the opening and closing ceremonies as well as athletics events. The Aquatics Centre, the Gelora Bung Karno Sports Palace, and Jakarta. 2.Jakarta Suburbs – A number of events will be held across Jakarta’s suburbs. Cycling events will be held at the Jakarta International Velodrome in Rawamangun, while golf will be held at the Pondok Indah Golf Course. A temporary venue, the Jakarta International Expo, will host a series of events including boxing and gymnastics. 3.Palembang – The Jakabaring Sport City complex at Palembang will host a series of other sports events. This includes tennis, women’s football, rowing/canoeing events, and shooting. 4.West Java – There are a small number of venues located in West Java, notably four stadiums for men’s football and road and mountain bike events. In total, nine locations in West Java will serve as hosts to different sporting events. The athlete’s village in Jakarta is built at Kemayoran. In Palembang, it is inside the Jakabaring Sport City.

GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE

  • All travel to Indonesia should be planned carefully in advance.
  • Travellers to Indonesia should maintain a low-profile, a slightly heightened level of situational awareness, and sensible security precautions at all times.
  • Travellers should be especially vigilant in crowded areas.
  • Take extra care of passports, credit cards, and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone, at night, or on public transport, due to the greater potential for crime.
  • Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves.
  • Road safety in Indonesia is poor. Locals are known to drive aggressively and routinely ignore road signs. If self-driving, a defensive style should be adopted. Due to the different culture and language, travellers should consider the use of a prearranged driver for all travel. Roads in Jakarta are often gridlocked in morning and evening rush hours.
  • Photographing military establishments and strategically important sites (such as airports) is not permitted and may lead to detention or arrest.
  • Only book taxis with a reputable firm. It is advised to book taxis through hotels rather than hailing them from the street. Make a note of the vehicle registration number.
  • Do not give out personal information and don’t discuss your plans with strangers.
  • Do not carry large sums of cash.

KEY LOCATIONS

US Embassy Jakarta Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan No.3-5, RT.11/RW.2, Gambir, Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10110, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 34359000 UK Embassy Jakarta Jalan Patra Kuningan Raya Blok L5 No.6, RT.6/RW.4, Kuningan Tim., Setia Budi, Kota Jakarta Selatan, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 12950, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 23565200 Australian Embassy Jakarta Jalan Patra Kuningan Raya Kav. 1-4, RT.6/RW.4, Kuningan Tim., Kota Jakarta Selatan, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 12950, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 25505555 Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital – government-run No.71, Salemba, Jalan Pangeran Diponegoro, Kenari, RW.5, Kenari, Senen, Kota Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10430, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 1500135

SCAMS

  • ATM Skimmer: Skimmers on ATM machines are not uncommon. Always make sure the slot where you insert your card has nothing attached to it. These devices may be disguised to look like regular parts of an ATM, so check carefully. Try to use ATMs inside banks if possible.
  • The Airport Pickup: Fake drivers work at the airport. As you walk out of your gate you unexpectedly see a driver with your name on a board and knowledge of your hotel (information which has probably been fed to them by a member of cabin crew). En route to your hotel, your driver stops and demands money as fare, which you feel obliged to pay. Travellers should not accept unexpected trips and should follow journey management plans if pre-arranged drivers have been organised.
  • Taxis Parked in Front of Your Hotel: Many four and five-star hotels have taxis waiting outside all day. Despite appearances, these taxis are not associated with the hotel. These drivers may not switch on their meters when picking up passengers and instead insist on an excessive charge whilst already in motion. Travellers should avoid taxis waiting outside of hotels. Ask your hotel to order one for you from a reputable company and ensure they meter your journey. If the vehicle has a meter, it should be used. Taxi drivers have also been reported as taking intentionally extended journeys in order to overcharge fares.
  • Fake Blessings: There are numerous temples in Indonesia and while they are more prominent in Bali, the fake blessings scam can occur in Jakarta. It involves a fake priest or holy man who will offer blessings and demand a donation in return, showing a jar filled with high denomination notes. Avoid engaging with such individuals.
  • Airport Porters – Foreigners will be targeted at the airport by those who look like official staff who will offer to take your bag to your transportation before demanding a fee. At times they can be forceful in their actions. Be firm in your response if you do not want any assistance.
  • The Fake Money Changer – This scam has become synonymous with Indonesia. It involves money changers offering rates which seem too good to be true. There are a few tricks they can play after grabbing your attention. They may claim to only have IDR 10,000 notes and while counting in front of you, they use sleight of hand tricks without you realising. They are betting that a customer will not count the whole stack of currency. Some money changers have also been accused of using a rigged calculator, which can be quite effective due to the large denomination of the rupiah. Only use authorised money changers and know how much you should be receiving.

MEDICAL CONCERNS

  • All travellers to the Asian Games should visit their doctor at least six to eight weeks before arriving in Indonesia.
  • Travellers should ensure that they are up to date with all routine vaccinations before travelling. Most travellers should ensure that they have vaccinations for hepatitis A, tetanus, and typhoid. For some travellers, it may be advisable to have cholera, hepatitis B, Japanese encephalitis, rabies, and tuberculosis.
  • Travellers should take precaution against mosquito-borne diseases including malaria. This includes the use of insect repellent containing DEET and sleeping in a mosquito net.
  • Travellers should take the necessary precaution against sun- and heat-related illnesses. Sun creams with a sun protection factor (SPF) of 30 or above and 4 or 5 stars UVA (ultraviolet A) protection should be used. Travellers should also ensure that they drink plenty of non-alcoholic fluids.
  • If taking long-term prescribed medication, travellers should contact their local Indonesian diplomatic mission to ensure that the import of such medication does not contravene any local laws. Travellers should also ensure that they maintain the original prescription, consider having it notarised and translated, and that they have more than enough to cover the length of their stay. There may be a limited supply of medication in Indonesia.
  • Health facilities in Jakarta are generally below western standards, although some private hospitals offer western-level care. However, such care can be expensive. Travellers should ensure that they have adequate medical insurance to cover medical repatriation in case of severe incidents.
  • Travellers should avoid drinking tap water, drinks with ice or uncooked food such as salads – water is not potable in Indonesia. Bottled water is widely available.

KEY DATES

25 July 2014
  • The Olympic Council of Asia appointed hosts for the Games during a meeting in Kuwait City.
30 June 2018
  • Organisers announced that the 30 June marks the first day of ticket sales.
15 July 2018
  • Flame for the Asian Games lit in New Delhi, India.
19 July 2018
  • Relay of the Asian Games Flame begins in Indonesia.
21 July 2018
  • Gelora Sriwijaya Stadium in Palembang damaged due to a riot during a local football match.
08 August 2018
  • First events of the Games – Basketball – begin.
18 August 2018
  • Opening Ceremony to be held in the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium.
02 September 2018
  • Closing Ceremony to be held in the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium.

LOCAL ETIQUETTE

While the various ethnic/religious groups in Indonesia have their own traditions and cultural traits, the following information is helpful to remember for most groups.
  • Indonesians avoid direct confrontation and place a large social emphasis on saving face. An unenthusiastic ‘yes’ may, in fact, mean ‘no’ and Indonesians are more likely to say ‘maybe’ rather than ‘I don’t know’. Do not raise your voice with Indonesians, especially with the police. Staying calm makes it more likely that you will receive the help or service needed.
  • If giving something to an individual of a higher status, use two hands as a sign of respect.
  • Avoid crossing your legs while sitting and do not allow the bottom of your feet to face or point at another person.
  • Use your right hand to pass objects or eat food. The left hand is considered unclean. Do not touch food, pass or receive anything, touch anyone or point with your left hand.
  • Although there are no anti-gay laws (apart from in Aceh), there are also no laws protecting the LGBT community and an anti-pornography law has been used to raid gay entertainment venues.
  • The head is considered sacred; the head of others should not be touched.
  • Most restaurants and hotels include a service charge of 10 per cent in their bill. If not automatically added, then a tip of five to ten per cent is appropriate.
  • Standing with your arms on your hips may be interpreted as an angry and aggressive posture.
  • Pointing should only be done with the thumb, not the finger.
  • Indonesians generally expect punctuality for social or business events.
  • Due to the importance of religion in Indonesia, all travellers should dress conservatively, especially women. It is advisable to wear clothes which cover knees and shoulders. Displays of affection between members of the opposite sex are generally frowned upon and may attract unwanted attention.

SOLACE GLOBAL

Solace Global remains available to provide the full range of Travel Risk Management services to clients. Solace Global is also able to provide comprehensive travel tracking, crisis management, in-country journey management, meet and greet, 24/7 monitoring, response, and evacuation services. For further details please contact +44 (0)1202 795 801 or email sgr@localhost.

Week 29 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

22 July 18: Attack Reported near Baraawe, Somalia. A merchant vessel reported coming under attack at 01°06’N 044°02’E. Vessel and crew reported safe in Baraawe port. The reported location of the attack, less than 1000m off shore, likely indicates the attackers were opportunistic and presently lack the capability to launch attacks further afield. 25 July 18: Saudi Vessel Attacked near Al Hudaydah. Local media reporting suggests that a vessel, identified as the Saudi-flagged barge Dammam, was struck by the Houthi at 4°47’N 041°44’E. The method of attack or the level of damage remains unclear, but re-purposed surface-to-air missiles have previously been used.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

17 July 18: Libyan Coastguard Reportedly Destroyed Migrant Vessel. At least three people were reported to have died after refusing to board a Libyan Coastguard vessel after the Coastguard took action to scupper their boat and return the occupants to the Libyan shore. Details remain sparse, however accusations have been made against commercial ship operators for failing to rescue the group, with some Non-Governmental Organisations suggesting that these deaths are directly tied to the Italian Government’s recent practice of barring ships carrying migrants from their ports.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

22 July 18: Merchant Vessel Approached South of Lome, Togo. A merchant vessel at 01°30’N 001°15’E was approached by a blue and white fishing vessel. The fishing vessel launched two skiffs which attempted to board the MV. The MV’s evasive manoeuvres prevented skiffs closing to within 0.5nm. All crew and vessel reported safe. The significant distance from shore indicates that this group may seek to conduct further attacks throughout the Gulf of Guinea, and presently  makes identifying their country of origin impossible.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

19 July 18: Theft from Vessel in Chittagong Anchorage, Bangladesh. Theives boarded a container vessel at 22°02’N 091°46’E undetected and escaped with three mooring ropes. Upon the alarm being raised, Bangladeshi law enforcement conducted a search, resulting in the stolen properties being returned to the vessel.
Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 29 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 29 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 29

Headlines From this Week

  • Israel Approves Jewish Nation-State Bill – The Israel parliament, or Knesset, approved a controversial bill which categorises Israel as a Jewish state and elevates the Hebrew language over Arabic. The passing of the bill saw furious scenes in the parliament building. This move is likely to bring protests not only within Israel but also on the borders of the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank.
  • Trump and Putin Meeting Fallout – President Trump faced widespread condemnation from across the US political spectrum for statements made after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland. Trump has fluctuated between stating that Russia did and did not meddle in the 2016 election. A further meeting between the two, which has also seen widespread opposition, has been penned for Autumn 2018.
  • 48 Dead in Mongolia Flooding – Widespread flooding, notably in the capital Ulaanbaatar and in provinces of Bayan-Ölgii, Khovd, Uvs, and Govi-Altai, have left at least 48 people dead in Mongolia. The adverse weather conditions have led to evacuations, damage to travel infrastructure, and power outages. Further heavy rainfall is forecast in parts of western, northern, and central Mongolia in the coming days, with the potential to exacerbate flooding and cause further disruption and risk to life.
  • Protests Continue in Iraq – Protests, which began in the southern city of Basra 08 July, have continued this week. At least 11 fatalities have been reported as the unrest over a lack of basic services, namely electricity shortages, has spread from Basra all the way to the capital Baghdad. 500 injuries have also been reported (including 300 members of the security forces) Demonstrators have also voiced grievances with corruption, unemployment, and water shortages. Security personnel have used live ammunition and water cannons to disrupt protests and telecommunications have been intermittently suspended.
  • Deadly Flooding in Niger – At least 13 people have been killed nationwide after heavy rainfall and flooding in Niger, with the most affected areas being Maradi, Agadez, and Diffa. In total, the adverse weather conditions have affected more than 17,000 people. Further rainfall is expected over the coming days.
  • Nicaragua Government Occupies Masaya – Pro-government forces retook the opposition stronghold of Masaya on 18 July after nearly 24 hours of skirmishes. Protesters and barricades have been cleared from the streets. Three fatalities were reported as a result of this operation. Unrest is set to continue nationwide.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Pakistan General Election – The 2018 general election in Pakistan is set to be held on 25 July. The election may prove to be only the second democratic transfer of power in the country’s history. Former-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been banned from running in the election over corruption charges. The campaign period has seen a number of terror attacks targeting rallies and politicians. Pakistan’s security forces, a powerful political element in the country, have been accused of actively favouring the candidacy of Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party
  • Anti-IMF Protest in Argentina – Activists have planned another protest against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to take place in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, on 21 July. The demonstration has been arranged to coincide with the visit of IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Activists are set to gather at the intersection of the Pueyrredon and Las Heras avenues starting at 1100hrs local time. It is unclear how many attendees should be expected but previous anti-IMF unrest has seen violence.
  • Mali Presidential Election – Mali will elect a new president on 29 July 2018. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has announced he will be running for a second term. The president of Mali is elected via a two-round system, with the victor requiring at least 50 per cent of the vote to win a five-year term in office. There are more than a dozen other candidates in the running for Mali’s top post. The election period is likely to lead to a spike in civil unrest and terrorism – much of Mali remains outside of the control of the central government in Bamako. Mali is also one of the world’s poorest countries and corruption is endemic.
  • Elections in Cambodia – Cambodia goes to the polls on 29 July 2018 to elect members of the sixth National Assembly. There are 125 seats to be contested with 63 required for a majority. The ruling party, the Cambodian People’s Party led by Hun Sen, is expected to win as the opposition and free media has been decimated by the government. Demonstrations are certainly possible before the election on 29 July but are more likely to be in favour of the regime. Travellers should avoid discussion of the alert as it may lead to arrest or a forceful response from local security officials.
  • Les Fetes de Bayonne – Bayonne Festival, dubbed the largest festival in France, is set to take place between 25 and 29 July in the French Basque city of Bayonne. The event is inspired by the Festival of San Fermin in Pamplona, Spain. A series of events occurs over these days and the city is expected to be crowded with tourists – this raises the potential for criminality.

Significant Dates and Events

  • 07 to 29 July – France – Tour de France Cycle Race
  • 19 to 22 July – United States – Summer X Games in Minneapolis
  • 19 to 22 July – United Kingdom – The Open golf championship at Carnoustie
  • 20 to 22 July – United Kingdom – Baggage handlers plan to strike at London Luton Airport
  • 20 to 22 July – Germany – Formula One race weekend near Heidelberg
  • 24 July – Ireland – Ryanair pilots to strike
  • 20 to 22 July – United States – Rugby World Cup Sevens in San Francisco
  • 21 July – Belgium – National Day
  • 21 July – Guam – Liberation Day
  • 21 July – Germany – Pro-refugee rally in Dusseldorf
  • 21 July – France – Planned anti-violence march in Beaumont-sur-Oise
  • 21 July to 05 August – United Kingdom – Women’s Hockey World Cup, London
  • 21 and 25 July – Bangladesh – Garment rallies in Dhaka
  • 22 July – Gambia – Revolution Day
  • 22 July – Israel – Pro-LGBT nationwide strike
  • 23 July – Egypt – Anniversary of the Revolution
  • 23 July – Papua New Guinea – National Remembrance Day
  • 23 July – Philippines – Anti-Duterte rally planned in Quezon City
  • 23 July – Oman – Renaissance Day
  • 23 and 26 July – Guinea – Further nationwide strikes scheduled for 23 and 26 July
  • 25 July – Puerto Rico – Constitution Day
  • 25 July – Spain – Ambulance workers in Malaga to strike
  • 25 July – Cuba – National Revolution Day
  • 25 July – Tunisia – Republic Day
  • 26 July – Liberia – Independence Day
  • 27-29 July – Hungary – Formula One race weekend in Budapest
  • 28 July – Peru – Independence Day
  • 28 July – United Kingdom – Eurostar staff at St Pancreas station to strike
  • 28 July – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally planned in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 29 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 29 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 28 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

11 July 18: Suspicious Approach near Hanish Islands, Southern Red Sea. A merchant vessel sighted a group of skiffs at 13°22’N 042°45’E. One skiff, carrying eight persons, approached to within 0.2nm of the MV, and ladders were sighted. Embarked security personnel displayed their weapons and the skiff moved away.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

17 July 18: Libyan Coastguard Reportedly Destroyed Migrant Vessel. At least three people were reported to have died after refusing to board a Libyan Coastguard vessel after the Coastguard took action to scupper their boat and return the occupants to the Libyan shore. Details remain sparse, however accusations have been made against commercial ship operators for failing to rescue the group, with some Non-Governmental Organisations suggesting that these deaths are directly tied to the Italian Government’s recent practice of barring ships carrying migrants from their ports.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

03 July 18: – Late Report – Tug Approached South West of Beyelsa,  Nigeria. A tug boat was approached by a fishing boat and skiff. At 01°49’N 003°12’E. The skiff approached to within 0.5nm, but repeated attempts to come alongside were prevented by heavy swell and evasive actions. After five hours, the skiff moved away.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

06 July 18: – Late Report – Theft from Tug in Pulau Batam. Four coils of towline were stolen from a Singapore-flagged tugboat operating near Pulau Batam between 0130LT and 0330LT. Coastguard reported that the tug appeared to be followed by two Sampans for approximately two hours before the theft was discovered. All crew were unharmed 10 July 18: Theft at Anchor, Sandakan, Malaysia. An unknown number of robbers boarded a berthed tanker in Sandakan and escaped with ship’s properties. The theft was later discovered by duty crew members. Vessel and crew otherwise unharmed.
Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 28 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 28 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.