Haiti’s Security Challenges and Opportunities in 2024

Since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti has experienced a continuous deterioration in security, resulting in the death of thousands and the displacement of tens of thousands. Even before Moïse’s murder, the Caribbean nation was grappling with political, socio-economic, and crime-related crises. However, his death created a power vacuum that emboldened armed gangs, leading to the dominance of gang warfare, particularly in the capital, Port-au-Prince.

Presently, these gangs control a significant portion of the country, with approximately 80% of the capital under their influence. This situation has resulted in widespread violence and has stretched the capabilities of the already overwhelmed police force.

As part of our comprehensive Global Risk Intelligence Forecast 2024, this analysis explores Haiti’s ongoing security crisis and the potential for international intervention in 2024.

The escalating violence in Haiti has triggered a refugee crisis, prompting waves of migrants to leave the country. Between October 2022 and July 2023, the United States alone has received over 125,000 Haitian migrants. The situation worsened in October 2023 when the Dominican Republic, the only country sharing a land border with Haiti, closed all routes, blocking the escape routes that hundreds of thousands of Haitians had sought since the onset of the violence.

In October 2023, the UN Security Council approved the Kenyan-led multinational task force, with support from officers of Jamaica, the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda. The United States committed at least USD 100 million in financial aid and logistical support. The Kenyan government, having secured parliament’s approval, sought to deploy officers after the UN confirmed funding. However, the deployment is currently on hold due to a temporary court order resulting from a petition filed by a small Kenyan opposition party.

In this report:

  • Haiti’s Security Challenges and Opportunities in 2024
    • Haiti’s Ongoing security crisis
    • Gangs, kidnappings, and the struggle for control
    • Escalating refugee challenge
    • Kenyan-led task force for Haiti’s security
  • Assessment and 2024 Forecast
    • The prospect of international intervention in Haiti
    • Task force objectives in Haiti
    • Struggle for international credibility
    • Kenyan mission’s impact on gang dynamics
    • The struggle for security
    • A turning point in Haiti’s security landscape
Haiti security challenges in 2024 report mock up

Continued in full report…

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Growing Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2024

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Despite Pakistan’s efforts to secure its mountainous border region and prevent the infiltration of extremists from Afghanistan, it is highly probable that the border remains a significant conduit for militants, contraband, and weaponry.

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