The Populist Wave and Polarisation in Europe in 2024

In the early 2020s, there has been a noticeable rise in the success of populist parties on both the far-right and far-left across Europe. An analysis conducted by more than one hundred political scientists in 31 European countries during 2022 revealed that approximately 32% of Europeans voted for anti-establishment parties. This is a significant increase compared to around 20% in the early 2000s and 12% in the early 1990s. 

As part of our comprehensive Global Risk Intelligence Forecast 2024, this analysis explores how the rise of both far-right and far-left political parties in Europe over recent years has significantly complexified and energised the political landscape on the continent.

Populist movements, once more prevalent in Eastern Europe, have made significant inroads in Western Europe. Examples include the far-right National Rally Group in France, Germany’s Alternative Für Deutschland, Sweden Democrats, and the rise of far-right parties in Italy’s recent election.

In non-proportional representation systems like the UK’s first-past-the-post, mainstream parties, particularly the Conservative party, have moved rightward in response to the popularity of populist ideas, particularly those related to immigration. “Culture wars” are also being employed to thwart the Labour party’s rise.

While the far-right has seen success in Spain with the ascent of Vox, the Socialist Party has maintained power. Spain faced a political challenge in 2023, leading to a controversial coalition with separatist groups. In Poland, the Law and Justice party was ousted, yet it remains a significant force. Slovakia experienced a shift with the far-left SMER party, impacting foreign policy decisions such as military aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.

  • The Populist Wave and Polarisation in Europe
    • Increased polarisation and populist gains in Western Europe 
    • Shift to the right in the United Kingdom
    • Diverse political landscapes
  • Assessment and 2024 Forecast
    • Upcoming national elections in Europe
    • Predictions for European elections and policy shifts 
    • Impact on national politics in Europe
    • Populist impact on the European union 
    • Eurozone populists and EU dynamics
    • Contention over Ukraine and Putin’s Russia 
    • EU’s response and potential challenges 
Populism wave in Europe Forecast report mock up

Continued in full report…

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Increased Incidents of Undersea Sabotage in 2024

Growing Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2024

South Africa’s Economic Future Amidst Threats of Civil Unrest in 2024

Rising tensions and technological advances have brought undersea sabotage to the forefront of global security concerns. Incidents of undersea sabotage in 2024 are almost certain to cause significant disruptions to maritime domains and critical national infrastructure.

Despite Pakistan’s efforts to secure its mountainous border region and prevent the infiltration of extremists from Afghanistan, it is highly probable that the border remains a significant conduit for militants, contraband, and weaponry.

Civil unrest is expected to cause significant disruption in South Africa in 2024. Despite this, many companies are increasingly choosing to expand or establish a presence in the country for various compelling reasons.

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