Election Guide: Q3 2024

02 July 2024

The Solace Global Election Guide offers detailed analysis of significant elections and their potential impacts on political stability and policy directions in the coming year.

Political transitions during elections often introduce periods of uncertainty. This uncertainty may contribute to market fluctuations, diplomatic strains, and shifts in policy orientation, all of which can influence businesses, investments, and global stability.

Here’s what’s inside:

France braces for a pivotal electoral showdown marked by President Macron’s high-stakes bid to thwart Marine Le Pen’s surging National Rally in the parliamentary elections. Against a backdrop of escalating social unrest and security challenges, including recent incidents of violence and political maneuvering, the outcome holds profound implications for the nation’s political landscape and governance. With alliances shifting and tensions mounting, France stands at a critical juncture, poised to determine its direction amidst a climate of deepening division and uncertainty.


French Election Review 2024

The recent French National Assembly elections have yielded unexpected results, reshaping the political landscape and setting the stage for a period of uncertainty and potential instability in the country.

In a surprise move, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called for a snap general election on 4 July, catching many off guard as the Conservatives brace for an uphill battle against Labour’s anticipated landslide victory after 14 years of Tory rule. With pressing concerns over the cost of living, healthcare, and immigration dominating voter sentiment, the outcome could reshape political dynamics in the UK, prompting scrutiny of the First Past the Post system and potential ramifications for the country’s future direction.


United Kingdom Review 2024

On 4th of July, the UK parliamentary election resulted in a landslide victory for the centre-left Labour Party, ending 14 consecutive years of Conservative Party government. No major disruptions were recorded during the electoral process, and the results were not met with any civil unrest, reflecting the UK’s tradition of orderly elections.

The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) aims to retain its longstanding control. Incumbent President Paul Kagame, seeking a fourth term following controversial constitutional reforms, faces criticism for human rights abuses and political repression. With significant international attention and potential shifts in geopolitical alliances, the elections are set to be a critical moment for Rwanda’s future.

Scheduled for July 15, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime-controlled election excludes opposition-held regions, setting the stage for predictable dominance by the Ba’ath Party. Despite widespread criticism and allegations of electoral manipulation, Assad’s grip on power appears poised to continue, maintaining a status quo marked by longstanding political control and enduring civil strife in the war-torn nation.

Incumbent Nicolás Maduro faces his toughest challenge yet amidst severe economic turmoil and international scrutiny. Backed by prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado, former diplomat Edmundo González emerges as the primary contender, with polls indicating a significant lead over Maduro. Amid concerns of electoral manipulation and a humanitarian crisis driving millions abroad, the outcome holds profound implications for Venezuela’s future stability and global relations.

Czechia’s upcoming legislative elections highlight a shifting political landscape amidst European dynamics. With the centre-right Spolu coalition currently holding sway in the Senate, led by the Civic Democratic Party and allies, the contest intensifies against the populist ANO party, led by billionaire Andrej Babis, known for its nationalist rhetoric and recent EU realignment. Amidst concerns over immigration policies and alignment with nationalist EU factions, the outcome will determine Czechia’s future path within the European Union and its domestic stability.

Algeria gears up for its presidential election on September 7th amidst ongoing political unrest and regional tensions. President Adelmadjid Tebboune’s early election call has sparked controversy, occurring against a backdrop of low voter turnout and criticism over electoral fairness. As the ruling FLN party maintains its grip, opposition voices remain stifled, with implications for both domestic governance and Algeria’s geopolitical relations, notably with neighbouring Morocco over the Western Sahara dispute.

Jordan prepares for its parliamentary elections on September 10, navigating its path towards democratic governance amidst ongoing challenges and reforms. With a constitutional monarchy structure where King Abdullah wields substantial authority, the elections for the House of Representatives will see increased participation by political parties under new electoral laws. As Jordanians anticipate potential shifts in parliamentary dynamics, the outcome holds implications for the country’s political landscape and reform progress.

Romania’s upcoming presidential election on September 15th underscores a pivotal moment in its political trajectory, navigating a landscape influenced by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) under Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s leadership. With incumbent Klaus Iohannis ineligible for a third term, the elections highlight the country’s semi-presidential system, where the president’s role, though ceremonial in theory, holds significant sway over foreign policy. As anti-establishment parties like the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) and SOS Romania gain traction, the outcome will shape Romania’s political direction leading up to crucial parliamentary elections in December.

The Freedom Party (FPÖ), leading in recent polls, poses a substantial challenge to the current coalition led by the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Green Alternative party (GRÜNE). With Austria’s political landscape evolving, the election outcome will carry implications for domestic policies and its stance within the European Union, particularly amidst rising nationalist sentiments.


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