Cypriot Reunification Talks Planned for 28 June 2017

• UN-brokered talks on Cypriot reunification are planned for 28 June 2017 in Switzerland, with potentially vital short- and longer-term implications for travel to Cyprus and the wider region.
• There is a great deal of ground to be made up between the Greek and Turkish communities on the Mediterranean island.
• Cyprus has been divided since 1974, with the Greek half of the island an EU member state.

Political: On 28 June 2017, representatives from the two governments on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus are to begin new talks on reunification. The talks, brokered by the UN, are due to take place in the Swiss resort of Crans-Montana, with 12 days of negotiations planned. The talks aim to settle the differences between the two halves of Cyprus – Greek Cyprus (internationally recognised by the UN and an EU member state) and Turkish Cyprus (recognised by Turkey only).

Cyprus has been administered by two different governments since 1974, after Turkish troops invaded and occupied the north of the island in reaction to an attempt to unite the island with the Greek state. At present, the two sides of the island are separated by a UN-administered buffer zone.

The 28 June 2017 talks have not been greeted with a great amount of optimism, due to domestic restraints on all parties, recent regional developments, and historic negotiating difficulties between these parties. They have, however, been described as a ‘once- in-a-generation’ opportunity for reconciliation, with all sides closer to a deal than they have perhaps ever been.

Greek Cyprus is due to hold presidential elections in 2018. The closer negotiations get to the February elections, the more hardline President Anastasiades is expected to become. It is expected that he will want to show strength against the threat of Turkey and offer a preferential deal to his people, in any subsequent referendum. Though some government ministers have reportedly suggested that a reunification deal may improve his electoral standing.

The greatest impediment to reunification is the issue of security. Both sides have to agree on a security policy which does not discriminate in favour of one ethnic group against the other. Turkey maintains a strong military force in the Turkish half of Cyprus. While probably fewer than the 40,000 troops used to invade in 1974, it is unclear how many remain. Indeed, estimates have fluctuated between 17,500 and 35,000. This is a vitally important and contentious issue with Greek Cypriots.

Geopolitical Implications

As with most issues in international relations, there are more actors present in these negotiations than simply the two sides of Cyprus. Greece, Turkey, and the UK (which maintains sovereign military bases on the island) are vital to ensuring the success of any deal, especially in terms of security.

President Tsipras of Greece reportedly told other EU leaders at a recent summit, that the EU should push back at attempts by Turkey to extract concessions from Brussels in return for a more constructive approach to talks on Cyprus. After a previous round of talks in January of this year, Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, declared that his country had the right to maintain a troop presence on the island indefinitely. In order for a deal to be struck, both Turkey and Greece will need to have more flexible positions, which may prove difficult as both sides seek to extract maximum advantage from negotiations. Both Turkey and Greece are seeking to improve their power base in the region and undoubtedly see each other as competitors. Turkey’s recent assertive diplomatic, political, and military actions unquestionably unnerve Athens. This includes Ankara discussing the prospect of restating a claim over Greek islands in the Aegean Sea.

Negotiations over Cypriot reunification may be key to Turkey’s EU accession, the European migrant crisis, and Turkey’s relationship with western Europe, which is presently rocky at best. Given the implications of reunification both domestically and internationally, these talks may represent the last opportunity, in the medium-term at least, to lay the groundwork for future reunification. Failure may stir up tensions in a region already facing uncertainty. An agreement would mark only one step on a long road to reconciliation, with many hurdles and challenges to be overcome.