• If currently in the country, especially the capital and the surrounding area, travellers should remain indoors and minimize all movement for the time being.
• Be aware that all land and air borders are currently closed, travel will be deferred until these restrictions have been lifted.
• Avoid political and governmental buildings in Bamako due to the likelihood of unrest.
• Ensure that you carry personal identification documents at all times. Consider making photocopies of important documents incase of confiscation, theft or loss.
• Travellers should have a grab bag packed and ready, said bag should be carried whenever leaving your residence.
• Review and update your escalation and evacuation plans for Mali, focusing on what protocols staff members should follow in the event there is major deterioration in the security environment.
• Anticipate a heightened military presence throughout the city with additional security being reported near all major political and media buildings. Exercise vigilance and follow all official directives.
• Travellers should follow local media and use the Solace Secure app to stay up to date with security-related events including potential protests, clashes or additional military deployment.

In 2010 Solace Global started out as Solace Global Maritime – providing armed security on vessels transiting the High Risk Piracy Area’s. Throughout the years the company has diversified its tasks ranging from anti-narcotics vessel searches in Colombia to bespoke Oil and Gas projects Globally. Solace Global Maritime supports a variety of tasks on a daily basis and with our in-house team of analysts we are able to report on events that could create change, threat or risk to our clients.

Here we look at piracy and maritime insecurities in the 21st Century. Maritime security is affected by a myriad of causes worldwide, including territorial disputes, conflict, environmental degradation and severe crime.

Despite years of national and international counter proliferation efforts, modern piracy remains a key issue affecting global maritime trade, as well as the oil & gas industry, and is present in most continents. Often concentrated around key transit and shipping routes and chokepoints, piracy and robbery at sea play a central role in fuelling instability and violence both on the water and on land.

Freedom and safety of navigation remain two of the core priorities for the international community, as evidenced by the effect of any threat of blockading one of the world’s straits or channels.This report aims at providing an overview of the main piracy hotspots, its root causes, impact and any efforts in combatting it.

POVERTY:Endemic poverty, unemployment and exploitation comparatively increase the profitability of piracy.

LAWLESSNESS: Lack of effective state control, law enforcement allows illegal activities and the expansion criminal networks both on land and sea.

CONFLICT: Prolonged warfare and internal conflict deteriorate governance, rule of law and state control, as well as day to day business functions. Maritime instability can also be advantageous for its tactical value.

RESOURCES: Critical resources such as oil & gas guarantee immediate profit in the black market. Also, the lack or depletion of key resources such as fishing stock, which are necessary for economic and societal sustainability, can also fuel illegality.

GEOGRAPHY: A complex and fragmented territorial composition, such as river deltas and vast archipelagos allow an easy escape for criminal elements and require high levels of manpower to be effectively policed by the authorities.

The Indian Ocean is considered the birthplace of modern piracy and armed robbery at sea. The proliferation of piracy led to the establishment of “High Risk Area” (HRA): a stretch of ocean off the coast of Somalia and Yemen that suffers from a level of piracy and it is considered critically dangerous for shipping and transit. The monitoring of the HRA is a concerted effort by maritime authorities and the global shipping and oil industries to minimise the threat of piracy: it requires vessels to adopt additional security measures (BMP5), including the use of armed guards, and to notify their passage to maritime authorities. Since 2008, the UN anti-piracy mandate has sanctioned international naval protection initiatives, as well as capacity building efforts on land.

The causes of Somali piracy are fundamentally rooted in the country’s crisis, its lack of rule of law and high level of poverty concentrated in the coastal communities. The collapse of the regime in 1991 led to a loss of control and effective policing of the country’s waters. This allowed activities like smuggling, illegal fishing and piracy to foster and further erode the rule of law in peripheral areas.

As the illegal fishing depleted the Somali fish stocks, local fishermen were increasingly attracted by the profitability of piracy. The influx of money generated by hijacking, kidnappings and robberies at sea greatly destabilised the economy and increased the cost of living, pushing even more fishing communities to embrace illegality. In this sense, while the international maritime efforts have succeeded in drastically reducing the incident rates, they only represent a short-term solution, ultimately ineffective without addressing the core issues on land.

The war in Yemen also represents a source of maritime instability in the region. This is, however, mostly unrelated to piracy and rather motivated by strategic considerations in the ongoing civil war. The Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, causes vessels to transit in the vicinity of Houthi-controlled coastal territories. While Houthi forces have refrained from deliberately threaten the shipping lines, they have conducted maritime attacks against vessels belonging to the Saudi-led coalition, the opposing faction in the civil war.

While the Somali coast has historically represented the world’s piracy hotspot, in recent years it has been overshadowed by the increasingly dangerous pirate activities in the Gulf of Guinea. The oil and gas-rich region of West Africa lacks the necessary refineries to process its production and the continuous exports of crude oil have represented a profitable market for robberies at anchorage points and illegality on the high seas.

Moreover, the basic economic inequalities within these societies have led to only a small elite benefiting from the oil & gas exploitation, creating a disenfranchised and exploited coastal population that turned to “Petro-Piracy”

The extreme fluctuations in market prices have, however, caused the West African pirates to transition towards the more profitable kidnap for ransom operations. The size of the Gulf, with its 6,000km long coastline, represent an area that is extremely hard to police, while the lack of an effective and coordinated effort by regional stakeholders has allowed piracy and armed robbery at sea to grow exponentially.

Moreover, the geography of areas such as the Niger Delta allows for a quick escape through its multitude of inlets, rivers and mangroves, where most of the illegal refineries and black-market centres are based.

While the condition of crisis and conflict in East Africa has allowed for integrated efforts by international navies and a subsequent reduction of piracy, the stronger governance and rule of law in countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea has led to the resistance of most foreign maritime protection initiatives, which are perceived as a violation of national sovereignty.

South East Asia has been the theatre of the oldest forms of piracy. Dating back to the 19^th century, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, as well as the vast archipelagos, have represented perfect hunting grounds for pirates. Now, the 800km long Straits, hosts 1/3 of the maritime commerce worldwide and 1/4 of the global oil trade, consisting in mostly imports from China and Japan. While most of the attacks in recent years are related to occasional crime, such as looting and robberies, the more complex efforts in the past have caused multimillion losses in oil revenue, consisting in large-scale military-like operations. International naval efforts have been successful in reducing the number of incidents, but, due to the vastness of the South East Asian waters, the issue persists.

In 2016, an Asian contingent of the so-called Islamic State established a territorial enclave in the southern Filipino city of Mindanao and caused an entirely new type of piracy to spread in the Borneo area. The vicinity of the archipelagos allowed a network of active and sleeping cells to develop and unify under the leadership of Aby Sayyaf’s Isnilon Hapilon.

With the small island formations facilitating movement and populated by impoverished fishermen, the IS introduced the concept of kidnap for ransom. This method was commonly used in the Middle East caliphate to finance ISIL activities and, due to the large influx of foreign fighters and Asian combatants, the knowledge was applied to the regional context of South East Asia. The Islamic State would encourage local fishermen to kidnap vessels and tourists in exchange for a small section of the profit, causing incidents to skyrocket in the years between 2016 and 2017.

To effectively police the Borneo area, being removed from the main shipping routes going to the South China Sea, represented an unjustifiable cost to regional government until the criminality developed into a complex and lethal operation. It was, however, an effort conducted mainly on land and that resulted in the notorious Marawi siege against the Asian caliphate. While IS piracy has been effectively reduced, occasional incidents continue to take place.

Central America and the Caribbean also represent another of the world’s piracy hotspots, characterised by widespread illegality on land that spills over to the seas, as well as the Venezuelan crisis, which plays a key role in the deteriorating security environment.

The region’s piracy has revolved around a different type of criminality, connected to the illegal activities on land and, in particular, the northbound smuggling of drugs and weapons. The endemic issues of organised crime, poor state control and widespread poverty, as well as the proximity of the islands has allowed the establishment of a Caribbean route to Florida. While the American war on drugs has been successful in demolishing sea-based narcotrafficking routes, it also fuelled violence and crime, causing states like Honduras and Guatemala to reach levels of violence comparable to active warzones.

As seen in the African continent, the high levels of poverty and unemployment in the region play a direct role in encouraging more desperate measures to obtain profit, such as armed robbery.

More recently, however, the political instability, unrest and economic crisis raging throughout Venezuela has become the centre of maritime violence in the region. As the economy collapses, the criminality in the Caribbean seas allows Venezuelan citizens to smuggle goods, food and currency in the country, devastated by inflation levels that risk causing mass starvation amongst the poorest parts of the population.

Desperate coastal communities, suffering from a disastrous attempt by former president Hugo Chavez to nationalise the fishing industry, have increasingly targeted other fishermen, oil rigs and yachts anchored in proximity to Venezuelan waters.

The growing availability of firearms, the spreading lawlessness and the presence of critical resources such as oil & gas is likely to continue to elevate the Venezuelan threat level, unless serious international action is taken.

According to the latest intelligence, on 12 May, four ships were targeted, two Saudi vessels and two others, off the coast of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Speculation remains rife regarding who was behind the attack, with US Intelligence blaming Iranian backed proxies. Despite continued social media chatter stating that the attack happened in the port of Fujairah, it appears the vessels were targeted off the Emirati coast. Regardless, operations at the port of Fujairah continue to function normally and have suffered no interruptions. At this time, there is no clear evidence to suggest that Iran or any other actor was behind the incidents; however, Iranian backed proxies are believed to be the main suspect. There have also been no official claims of responsibility.

The precise nature of the incident still remains unclear at this time. There continues to be a large amount of misinformation on social media stating that an attack occurred in Fujairah port. Indeed, any attack on the port has been denied by the port authorities, and both locals and port workers that have been contacted by Solace Global have stated that it does not appear that any major attack occurred in the port.

Instead, at this time, it appears that four tankers were attacked off the coast of Fujairah. It appears that these vessels, all oil tankers, were subject to some sort of “sabotage” attack whilst anchored near Fujairah; and not in the port.

At the time of writing, there have been no reports of injuries or fatalities on board the vessels and one photo appears to show a light spill of some kind; however, the authenticity of the image could not be verified. The UAE foreign ministry has declared that all acts of sabotage on civilian vessels which threatens the safety of those on board “is a serious development”. Investigations into the incident remain ongoing and, at this time, no group or actor has been blamed for the attack and no suspects have been identified; likewise, no group has claimed the attacks. Though US officials are speculating that Iran-backed proxies have some responsibility in the attacks.

The Iranian Foreign Minister has stated that the incident was “alarming and regrettable”. A senior Iranian MP has also stated that the saboteurs appear from “a third country” and has urged a probe into the incident. The UAE Ministry of Energy has stressed the need for increased cooperation within the international community, who are responsible to ensure the safety and security of oil tankers in the region, due to the possible serious impacts on the world economy should navigation in the area be disrupted.

An important note in the incident is that the UAE was flooded with media reports linked to Russia and Iranian servers and social media accounts that claimed the attack occurred on land at Fujairah’s port. While it remains unclear if these fake reports were part of the attack, they included that “seven to ten tankers were in flames”. There were also claims of the US or other aircraft flying over the port at the time. These claims were immediately refuted by the UAE government and the Fujairah port authorities. The Iranian state-funded broadcaster Press TV used the incident as an opportunity to link the “attacks” with the ongoing war in Yemen. Regardless, the incident appears to show a concentrated effort to spread misinformation during and after the incidents.

The incident comes at a time of heightened tension in the region. The US has deployed a carrier battle group, B-52 strategic bombers and patriot defence missile systems to the Persian Gulf. The deployment by the US is understood to be in response to a possible threat to US forces in the region by Iran in response to the increasing tensions over the collapse of the Iran deal.

The deployment of the forces increases the risk of a “miscalculation” by military forces in the Gulf. It is feared that an incident between the two countries’ navies could result in an escalation in the region, including a possible military confrontation. It has also increased the rhetoric from both sides with Iran describing the deployment as a potential “target” and not a threat. Indeed, a former US defence official warned on 12 May that the threat of a miscalculation by either side was now a very “real risk”.

Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf have been a rare occurrence since 1991. Saudi Arabia did not halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the 1981-88 conflict between Iraq and Iran when both sides attacked vessels in the Gulf; in what was known as the “tanker war”. Additionally, oil exports continued during the first Gulf War in 1990-91. The risk to tankers in the Straits of Hormuz region remains LOW for the time being. However, additional incidents or attacks will alter the security environment greatly, likely leading to the deployment of additional maritime assets by numerous countries, which, in turn, raises the risk of an international incident.

The most notable recent incident was in 2010, when a Japanese tanker, the M. Star, was damaged in an explosive attack whilst docked around 14 miles (22 kilometres) off the coast of Fujairah, UAE. This attack was claimed by the Brigades of Abdullah Azzam, a militant jihadist group. More recently, in September 2018, the Saudi military reportedly foiled attacks by Houthi militants at Jizan’s port. According to reports, the military foiled an attack by two explosives-laden remote-controlled boats at the port. The attacks were reportedly in response to Saudi air raids in Yemen. Additionally, in July 2018 a UAE navy vessel was reportedly attacked off the coast of Yemen by Houthi rebels. The vessel is understood to have caught fire and was close to sinking following the attack. Finally, in 2016, Houthi rebels attempted to hit a US destroyer that was launching cruise missiles on rebel positions.

The nearby Straits of Hormuz is bordered by Iran, Oman and the UAE and is the single most important waterway for global oil shipments; making it an attractive target for sabotage or other forms of attack on oil shipments. However, due to the waterway’s strategic importance, it is also one of the most heavily patrolled regions in the world; with significant American naval assets already in the area, not to mention the deployment of a new carrier group.

Algeria: Nationwide Anti-government protests underway nationwide Demonstrations against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement to run for a fifth term in office have organised nationwide. Protests have been out on the streets of Algiers, centred mainly outside the Universities of Bejaia and Bouira. Large crowds and limited scenes of unrest and even clashes were also reported in Oran, Constantine, Setif, Tizi Ouzou, and Bouira. As a result of the widespread protests, there has been significant disruptions to travel and services. In Algiers, public transportation services were suspended and the Algiers Metro was closed. Demonstrations in Algeria are banned. It has been reported that on 1 March, at least 100 people were wounded in clashes between protesters and police across the country. There is a heightened security presence across the country, particularly surrounding demonstrations. The country’s military has also condemned the unrest and called for a halt to the protests. ADVICE: Demonstrations in Algeria are banned; anticipate a heightened security presence near demonstration sites. Current protests are known to turn violent with little notice; further clashes between protesters and police cannot be ruled out. Travellers are advised to continue to monitor the political situation. Businesses and travellers should now start looking ahead and considering altering travel arrangements in the build-up to the election should unrest continue.

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South Korea: Nationwide North Korea has condemned the joint US – South Korea military drills in the region On Thursday, 7 March, North Korea denounced the ongoing joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington as an “all out challenge” to moves towards peace on the Korean peninsula. The US and South Korea had agreed on Sunday to replace two major war games that take place every spring, known as the “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills”, with a shorter “Dong Maeng” or “Alliance” exercise. The joint drills commenced this week and involve tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers and a large number of the 30,000 US troops posted in South Korea. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while the likelihood of a conflict remains remote, international incidents or accidental clashes between the opposing militaries may result in an increase in tensions.

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Guinea-Bissau: Nationwide Final stages of election campaigns underway ahead of vote on 10 March Guinea-Bissau is set to hold legislative elections on 10 March, with the Presidential vote predicted to follow shortly after. As such, election campaigns have begun in the country dubbed as Africa’s first “narco” state. The upcoming elections are already the subject of international scrutiny, having been postponed from the original date of 18 November 2018 – due to two suspensions to voter registration, following allegations of irregularities. As such, ambassadors from the UN Security Council have met with the incumbent President José Mário Vaz, along with opposition party leaders and the country’s electoral commission, in an effort to promote free and fair elections. The former Portuguese colony has been in political crisis since August 2015, when President Vaz sacked his then Prime Minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, on corruption charges. This resulted in the dissolution of the government and caused bitter divisions within the main PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde) to which they both belong. Political protests and associated violence have been present ever since, adding to the country’s continuing instability. In October 2018, thousands of people protested in the nation’s capital to denounce a lack of transparency and irregularities surrounding voter registration. October 2018 also saw a nationwide teacher strike paralyse the education sector – in turn triggering counter-demonstrations and protests. It is also important to note that Guinea- Bissau has witnessed nine coups, or attempted coups, since 1980. ADVICE: Due to the threat of political violence surrounding elections in Guinea-Bissau, travellers are advised to delay all non-essential travel until the elections have passed. If travel is business critical, travellers are advised to consider implementing precautionary security measures. Travellers should also avoid all protests and public gatherings, although they may initially seem peaceful there is the potential for them to turn violent.

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To read more please download the report: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 10

Martin Fayulu, leader of the Engagement for Citizenship and Development party in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has called for campaign of civil disobedience following the Constitutional Courts decision to reject his appeal against the election results on 20 January.

As a result Felix Tshisekedi,  of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress party, could be inaugurated as the new President of the DRC as soon as Tuesday 22 January.

The 30 December 2018 Presidential election has been marred with accusations of vote rigging and fraud following an announcement by the Catholic Church election observers that Martin Fayulu received 60% of the presidential vote and should have been announced as President-elect.  These allegations have been backed-up by leaked data from the electoral commission.

Further allegations have suggested that current President Felix Kabila, who has ruled the DRC since 2001, struck a deal with Tshisekedi allowing him the maintain control of the military and several key government ministries.

Polling also did not take place in several key areas due to instability and the ongoing Ebola Crisis.  Polling indicated that all areas would have voted overwhelming for Fayulu’s Engagement for Citizenship and Development party held.  Elections have been postponed in Beni, Butembo (North Kivu province) and Yumbi (Bandundu province) till March.  The close nature of the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) between Fayulu and Tshisekedi suggest that voting in these areas could have had an impact on the final result – further excluding a large percentage of people from the democratic process. Key opposition figures in the DRC, who were excluded from running in the Presidential election but boast huge regional support, have come out and backed Fayulu’s calls for protests.  Heavyweight politicians  Moise Katumbi and Jean Pierre Bemba who backed the Fayulu led-opposition have called on their supporters to join the campaign of civil disobedience raising fears of anti-government demonstrations erupting throughout the DRC in the coming days.

Solace Global are anticipating widespread unrest in the coming days as citizens of the DRC respond to the courts announcement. Protests are likely to be met by a forceful response by security forces who have used live ammunition against demonstrators during the election period.  Key protest flash points will include the capital Kinshasa as well as opposition held cities including Lubumbashi, Mbuji-Mayi and Kananga.  We are also expecting widespread unrest in Beni and Butembo due to the towns exclusion from the voting process which will create further challenges as international organisations respond to the current Ebola Crisis.

Travel Advice

• In-country staff should minimise all movement in the coming days due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces.  Staff should remain in a secure, gated location, away from potential protest flashpoints.
• Review evacuation plans to ensure they are up to date, realistic and can be implemented at short notice. Consider how you will rapidly assemble staff in a central and secure location especially if they are working in remote locations.
• Travellers should stay up to date with the latest information, especially regarding political demonstrations. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
• Periodically test all communication strategies (multiple communication means will be required including satellite phone) and ensure you have the capability to quickly communicate with staff on the ground.  Internet providers and telephone networks are likely to be intermittently disabled in the coming days.
• Significant traffic disruption is likely near protest flashpoints, on major routes and around key transport and business hubs. Plan routes circumventing areas prone to unrest, alternatively allow additional time if travel through affected areas is unavoidable.
• Anticipate heightened security in urban centres, at protest locations and in the vicinity of government buildings. Exercise vigilance and if people start gathering in a location; leave the area immediately and return to a safe location.
• Always carry personal identification and travel documentation in case you need to transit through a checkpoint.

CHINA: Beijing – US issues travel warning after a spate of high-profile international detentions. The US state department has issued a travel advisory following a series of high-profile detentions of Canadian and American citizens in China.  The warning comes after two Canadians, one a former diplomat, were arrested and remain in detention following accusations that they harmed national security.  In total thirteen Canadians have been detained since December 1 and three American nationals have also been barred from leaving the country under China’s controversial ‘exit bans’.  The increase in detentions and exit bans has coincided with the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou who was detained in Vancouver on 1 December at the request of the US.  US officials are attempting to extradite the Chinese national following accusations that she manufactured the sale of US technology to Iran through a Hong Kong company in an attempt to circumvent US sanctions. The trade war between China and the US has escalated in recent months and the arrest of citizens on both sides appears part of an ongoing diplomatic dispute.  The US Presidents statement on 12 December, suggesting that he would personally intervene in the Meng Wanzhou case if it would facilitate a favourable trade deal with China, has only added to fears that the recent spate of arrests are politically motivated. ADVICE:   While travel to China can continue, travellers should exercise increased caution and organisations should have pre-considered contingencies in place prior to employee travel. Employees require a valid visa and in-date passport for the duration of their trip.  If detained, travellers should ask security officials to notify their respective embassy as soon as possible. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: EXTREME) – Further unrest likely following a delay in the release of election results.  Continue to defer all travel until after election announcement. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced on 3 January that the release of provisional election results, which had been anticipated on 7 January, would be delayed after reports that only 20 percent of tally sheets had been received by election officials in Kinshasa.  The announcement comes following reports from the Catholic Church, who had thousands of monitors in attendance at polling stations around the country, that disruptions and irregularities were experienced in some provinces during the election.  While the 30 December vote passed off relatively peacefully, the campaign period was marred by violent clashes between security forces and opposition party supporters in key opposition held areas.  At least seven people were killed in the weeks leading up to the election. President Joseph Kabila, who has held the position of President since 2001, will step down following the release of election results.  The country has been gripped by political crisis since 2016 when Kabila’s second and final term ended.  The delay in the release of the election results alongside accusations of voting irregularities by the Catholic Church is likely to provoke further demonstrations in the coming days.  Government authorities have blocked the internet and banned some media broadcasters in an attempt to disrupt the organisation of protest movements.  See our latest Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC untill after the release of the election results. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres in the coming days and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation for the duration election period.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. SUDAN: Khartoum; urban centre – Anti-austerity protests continue, reports of widespread clashes with security forces, further protests likely Opposition political parties and civil society groups are calling for further anti-government protests on the 4 and 6 January.  The announcement comes after more than two weeks of countrywide demonstrations demanding the end to severe austerity measures that have been implemented by the Sudanese government in an attempt tackle growing inflation in the country.  Widespread discontent has gripped Sudan over the last 12 months following a sharp increase in food prices, countrywide fuel shortages and the devaluation of the Sudanese pound. In the last two weeks protest have occurred daily in major urban centres, including the capital Khartoum and Port Sudan leading to clashes with security forces. Nineteen people have been killed since 19 December and local reports indicate that security forces have used tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse crowds.   Sudanese officials have responded to the protests by implementing emergency protocols throughout the country which include curfews in potential protests flash points and the closure of most university campus in the country.  On Sunday 6 January protesters will attempt march on the Presidential Palace in Khartoum at 13.00 to deliver a petition demanding that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir resigns. ADVICE: Travellers in Sudan should exercise addition caution and follow all instructions from local officials.  An increased security presence should be expected in Khartoum and other urban centres.  If you encounter a protest or gathering of people, leave the area immediately and return to a secure location. VENEZUALA: Countrywide (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: EXTREME) – Current incumbent President Nicolas Maduro will be inaugurated for his second term on 10 January, protests likely. Current incumbent Nicholas Maduro will be sworn in for his second term as Venezuelan president on 10 January leading to calls from local civil rights groups and a collation of opposition parties to demonstrate in urban centres.  The main opposition parties boycotted the 20 May presidential election over a lack of transparency and allegations that the National Electoral Council were unable to hold a free and fair election due to perceived bias.  Opposition protests erupted in the capital Caracas on 16 May which were met by a forceful response from security forces who claimed protesters had not sought permission from the government to hold a demonstration. Despite holding huge oil reserves, the Venezuelan economy has been severely mismanaged leading to widespread poverty and malnutrition.  President Maduro is accused of perpetuating the situation following his refusal to acknowledge the economic challenges or the social impact it is having, refusing the support of international aid groups. Thousands of Venezuelans have fled the country over the escalating socioeconomic challenges and fear of political persecution.  In 2017, months of street protests erupted throughout the country after the government arrested several opposition leaders and dissolved the opposition-led national assembly.  Over 150 people were killed, and 4,500 people were arrested. ADVICE: Consider minimising movement in the capital Caracas and other urban centres on 10 January due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces.  Travellers should avoid all opposition-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.

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Global Headlines • 21 December 4 January 2019

MYANMAR: Rakhine State – Renewed fighting between Buddhist armed groups and Myanmar’s military forces thousands to flee Fighting erupted in December between government forces and the Buddhist separatist group the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine state (Western territory) forcing thousands to flee their homes.  Tensions have been elevated in Rakhine state, known for its religious and ethnic diversity, since the Rohingya crisis erupted last year forcing hundreds of thousands of ethnic Rohingya Muslims to seek refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh.  An escalation of hostilities began after two Buddhist men disappeared on 18 December while fishing in Maungdaw township, on the border with Bangladesh and were later found dead.   On the same day a police convoy was ambushed in the area by unknown assailants resulting in the kidnap and death of a police officer.  The Myanmar military responding by launching clearing operations throughout the state forcing thousands of Buddhists to flee their homes and seek shelter in monasteries and communal camps. The Arakan Army have responded to the clearance operation by launching a series of attacks against security forces in the state.  An AA spokesperson stated that on 4 January a series of attacks occurred at several police posts killing seven members of the security forces and taking 12 hostages.  The forced return of Muslim communities who had sought refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh was meant to begin in December but has subsequently been delayed due to ongoing tensions. ADVICE: Travel to Rakhine state should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by a trusted local contact. Foreign travellers require prior approval from the Myanmar government to visit the state. If travelling to any rural parts of the country, make sure you have suitable communication equipment and check-in regularly with a home contact.  Minimise all movements near police, military or government installations. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. UNITED KINGDOM: Manchester – Three people stabbed at Victoria railway station in suspected terror attack on 31 December Three people were stabbed at Victoria railway station on 31 December in a suspected terror attack.  At approximately 21.00 a male suspect approached people waiting at the tram platform in the station before producing a knife and stabbing two individuals.  Screams alerted the British Transport Police situated in the station who were able to quickly apprehend the suspect.  One of the officers was subsequently stabbed while detaining the assailant.  Witnesses reported hearing the attacker shout Allah and anti-western slogans during the attack.  Police are currently treating the incident as a lone-wolf styled terrorist attack and do not believe anyone else was involved in the planning or execution of the attack. Security had been increased throughout the UK over the festive period with additional units deployed to major transport hubs and in high-profile locations.  This ensured a quick response to the incident, minimising the opportunity for the attacker to do further damage, none of those injured are in a critical condition.  Lone-wolf, low profile attacks continue to present a serious concern for counter-terrorism efforts in the UK due to the difficulty faced by security forces and counter-terrorism agencies in tracking and intervening in such attacks. ADVICE: Individuals in the UK should always maintain situational awareness and exercise heightened vigilance in high profile areas such as transport hubs, tourist locations or government buildings.  Report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities.  Security in and around major transport hubs is likely to remain high in the coming weeks and could lead to potential disruption.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. GERMANY: Bottrop – One man detained after several injured in an intentional vehicle ramming incident on 1 January Four people were injured on 1 January after a car was driven into a crowd of tourists near the Plaza in Bottrop situated in the north west of Germany in the early hours of New Years Day.  The assailant, a 50-year-old German male, fled the scene before attempting to hit a second crowd at a bus stop in Essen where he was eventually stopped and apprehended by police.  A senior government official stated that the incident was an intentional attack that clearly intended to kill or maim.  Police are treating the incident as a xenophobic attack motivated by anti-immigration sentiment. The German governments ongoing support to refugees, which has seen the arrival of over one million asylum seekers arrive in the country in the past three years, has led to a sharp rise in tensions between migrant and host communities. In some German state’s crime, including violent crime, has risen during this time and been explicitly linked by German media to the influx of refugees.  While tensions have risen German officials are treating the attack as a one-off event that can be partially attributed to the suspect history of mental health problems.   That said, such attacks can further isolate migrant communities and provides an opportunity for Islamist groups to use the attack as propaganda for their own recruitment activities. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance if travelling in Germany and report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities.  Security in Bottrop and the surrounding areas is likely to remain high in the coming days and could lead to potential disruption.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
8 Jan	Puntland (Somalia)	Regional elections	MODERATE
10 Jan	Venezuela	Presidential Inauguration	HIGH
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 52 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

UNITED KINGDOM: Gatwick Airport, London –  Anticipate disruption; flight delays at Gatwick following drone activity near runway. Gatwick has reopened its runway and a limited number of planes have been allowed to arrive and depart after the authorities implemented a 36-hour suspension of flights after a drone was sighted near one of the runways.  Despite the airport reopening over 100 flights are expected to be cancelled in the next 24 hours, with both planes and crews out of place.  Over 126,000 people were meant to depart from Gatwick yesterday which will likely create a backlog of passengers needing to access different flights and delays at check-in desks throughout the airport.  Local authorities believe the drone activity may have been a deliberate attempt to disrupt air traffic during one of the busiest times of year.  The drone was first spotted at 21.00 on 19 December and was continually sighted over the next 24 hours with the last sighting being late on 20 December.  Please see our recent Christmas and Winter Travel Advisory for more information on what to do during seasonal flight delays. ADVICE: Widespread disruption is expected at Gatwick over the next 48 hours as flight operators seek to clear the backlog of passengers. Those expecting to depart from Gatwick should contact their operator to reconfirm the current status of their flight.  Passengers should also check-in online as soon as possible and arrive to the airport early to prevent your seat being from being reassigned to a standby passenger. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: SEVERE) – Presidential election postponed until 30 December. Anticipate unrest; associated clashes.  Defer non-critical travel. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) has delayed the Presidential Election until 30 December citing a shortfall of electronic voting machines in the capital Kinshasa.  The announcement comes following a suspected arson attack on 13 December that destroyed 8,000 electronic voting machines, roughly two-third of the number required for voting in the capital city. Over the next week CENI will now attempt to move electronic voting machines from other parts of the country to make up the shortfall in Kinshasa and will need to replace five million ballots that were also lost in the fire. The latest delay is likely to create further unrest in the coming days as opposition groups voice their anger over the repeated delays to an election that was meant to take place in 2016.   Protests broke out in Kinshasa near the main university following the announcement of the postponement on 20 December leading to clashes with security forces as they attempted to disperse the demonstrators. The December campaign period has been marred by clashes between opposition supporters and security forces with reports that the military have used live ammunition in an attempt to disperse political rallies in opposition held areas of the country leading to dozens of deaths.  Campaigning has been banned in Kinshasa over fears of related violence.   See our latest Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC till after the election cycle. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres between 29 December – 1 January and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation over the election period.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES (WEST BANK): Ramallah; West Bank – Anticipate unrest; increased security following recent escalation in attacks. Travellers in the West Bank should exercise caution and anticipate heightened security following the recent increase in violence between Palestinians and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF).  Tensions increased throughout the region after two Israeli soldiers were killed at a checkpoint in a drive by shooting near the Israeli settlement Ofra, to the east of Ramallah, on 13 December.  In response to the shooting the IDF temporarily closed access to Ramallah, declaring it a military zone and launching raids into the city to find the perpetrators of the attacks.  Four Palestinians were killed following Israeli operations in the West Bank.  On 20 December a Palestinian was killed after Israeli soldiers opened fire on vehicle at Beit El Military road block north of Ramallah.  The recent escalation in tensions between the two groups is likely to cause further incidents and security operations.  Movement restrictions are likely in the coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in the West Bank should exercise addition caution over the current period and minimise time spent at military checkpoints or near Israeli settlements.  An increased security presence is likely in border regions between Israel and the West Bank and delays should be expected at check points.     Always carry your travel documentation with you as well as photographic ID to minimise delays. MAURITIUS: Countrywide (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE) – Tropical Cyclone Cilida due to make landfall on 22 December; heavy rainfall and flooding possible. Tropical Cyclone Cilida is forecast to make landfall on 22 December on the Island of Mauritius in the southern Indian Ocean.  The cyclone, which is expected to reach an intensity equivalent to a category 4 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale), will result in wind speeds up to 240 kmph (150 mph) as it passes the eastern shoreline of the Island.  Heavy rain and strong winds have been forecast as well as the possibility of storm surges on the eastern coastal areas of the Island.  Travel disruption, including flight cancellations, remains possible during the tropical storm and travellers in or transiting to Mauritius should monitor developments over the coming days and reconfirm their travel schedule. ADVICE: Travellers due to fly from Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) should reconfirm itinerates with their airline.  In the event of cancellations, your travel provider will be able to support with additional arrangements.  Roads may become impassable due to flooding, check the status of routes before setting out on journeys.   Strong winds could bring down electricity pylons and basic preparations should be made in the event of a sustained power outage.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. SPAIN: Barcelona – Anticipate travel disruption; further protests following anti-government demonstrations on 21 December A series of protests broke out in Barcelona following the decision by the Spanish cabinet to hold their weekly meeting in Barcelona.  Demonstrators blocked major highways leading to the city causing severe travel disruption on 21 December. The protests were quickly organised by pro-secessionist parties who see the government decision to hold the weekly meeting in Barcelona as both provocative and detrimental to their hopes for Catalonian succession from Spain.  Local media reported on clashes between security forces and protesters on some major routes into the city as security forces attempt to disperse the protesters. ADVICE: Heightened security measures and significant traffic disruption is expected on 21 December. Further protests are likely over the weekend leading to localised travel disruption.  Confirm the status of routes before setting out on road journeys.   Avoid all protests as a precaution. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.

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Global Headlines: 14 – 20 December 2018

MOROCCO: Imlil (Marrakesh-Safi region) – Two foreign nationals found dead near Atlas Mountains in potential terrorist attack Four men have been arrested on terrorism charges after the bodies of two Scandinavian tourist were discovered on 17 December 10 km (6mi) from the remote village of Imlil (Marrakesh-Safi region) in the Atlas Mountains.  A video was released on social media purported showing one of the victims being killed by the men. A spokesperson for Morocco’s General Prosecutor announced on 20 December that the four men who have been detained had recorded a video pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) a week before the bodies were discovered.  This is the first terrorism related incident to occur outside Morocco’s urban areas. The two female tourists, from Denmark and Norway, had been on a hiking holiday in the Atlas Mountains. Attacks on tourists remain incredibly rare in Morocco, which has become a popular tourist destination with European travellers.  The last known terrorist attack occurred in 2011 when a bomb was planted in a café popular with tourists and expatriates, killing 17 including 11 Europeans. That said, the country continues to host Islamic extremist elements with thousands of Moroccans believed to have travelled to join IS in Syria in recent years. The repatriation of these fighters, following the fall of IS self-proclaimed caliphate, has placed additional pressure on Morocco’s counter terrorism agencies and an increase in small-scale extremist attacks remains possible.  Both Denmark and Norway have issued travel warnings to their citizens following the attack. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance when travelling to Morocco, report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities and minimise time spent in the vicinity of potential terrorist targets (government buildings, tourist destinations, security check points). If visiting a rural part of the country, make sure you have suitable communication equipment and check-in regularly with a home contact.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. TUNISIA: Sidi Bouzid province – Sidi Bouzid province: Security operation dismantles terror cell planning attacks on Tunisian security forces Tunisian Security officials announced on 19 December that it had detained eight individuals in Sidi Bouzid province who were part of an extremist cell with ties to a transnational terrorist organisation.  The announcement comes weeks after 12 individuals were arrested in connection with the suicide bombing that occurred on Avenue Habib Gourguiba in the capital, Tunis on October 26 wounding 26 people and killing the bomber.  An interior ministry spokesperson told local media that all 12 had links to the Islamic State (IS). The attack in October was the first terrorist attack to occur in Tunisia since 2015 when the government-imposed strict counterterrorism reforms, improving the security environment in major cities. The latest development highlights the possibility of increased terrorist activity within Tunisia but also the capability of Tunisian security forces in identifying and disrupting terrorist activity throughout the country.  Further security operations remain likely in the coming weeks and an increased security presence should be expected in major cities and near potential targets for attack (tourist sites, government buildings, transport hubs).  Read our latest Travel Advisory on the increased threat of terrorism in Tunisia. ADVICE: While travel to Tunisia remains possible, enhanced precaution should be considered prior to travel.  Travellers should minimise time spent near potential target sites and refrain from travelling to tourist sites at peak hours.  Minimise movement on foot after dark and maintain a varied routine while in country.  Additionally, remain vigilant to the threat posed by terrorism and report any suspicious behaviour to the authorities. GREECE: Athens – Explosive device detonates at media group headquarters on 18 December, no casualties reported A makeshift explosive device detonated near the headquarters of Greek non-state media group SKAI in the early hours of 17 December, causing extensive damage to the building.  The explosion, which occurred at 2.37am, was described by local media as especially powerful causing damage as high as the sixth floor.  A warning call was made to two media companies 45 minutes before the explosion which allowed both buildings to successfully evacuate before the detonation.  A spokesperson for the Greek anti-terror police announced that 10 kg of explosives had been packed into a rucksack and placed by a roadside barrier immediately outside the building before being remotely detonated.  No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.  A day later the Athens Court of Appeals was evacuated following an anonymous phone call warning of an explosive device being place near the building.  The call was later determined to be a hoax but caused significant disruption as security forces investigated the incident. Targeted political bombings are becoming more frequent in Athens and the attack on media headquarters bore similarities to a bombing that occurred near the Athens Court of Appeals on 21 December 2017 that was claimed by the far-left Group of Popular Fighters who claimed to be targeting the corrupt judicial system.  On 13 November 2018 an improvised explosive device was defused outside the home of the Supreme Court deputy prosecutor.  The bomb had been hidden in motorcycle outside the prosecutor’s home.  Police were alerting to the potential of an IED after an anonymous call was made to the main Athens police station giving the address of the deputy prosecutor.  Small scale IED are likely to continue due the volatile political environment currently dominating Athens, leading to travel disruption. ADVICE: Travellers in Athens should always maintain situational awareness, minimising time spent near government or judicial buildings.  In the event that you are in a building when an alarm sounds, immediately evacuate the building and follow all advise issued by local authorities.  Bomb threats are likely to cause localised disruption in areas of central Athens and in the event of an evacuation plan routes avoiding the area.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
30 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	SEVERE
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH
31 Dec	Guinea-Bissau	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
8 Jan	Puntland (Somalia)	Regional elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 51 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

TOGO: Nationwide (Moderate) – Nationwide: Anticipate heightened security; disruption, following ban on opposition protest The Togolese government have banned all opposition protests and rallies in the build up to the 20 December legislative elections stating fears over public disorder.  Demonstrations had been planned by opposition leaders in urban centres throughout the country from 8 December to 18 December calling for the deferral of the election process to allow for constitutional reforms.  Fourteen opposition political parties, who make up the main opposition collation, denounced electoral irregularities and subsequently did not submit candidates for the upcoming elections.  Togo has been engulfed in political crisis over the last year with regular demonstrations calling for the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, who has ruled the country since 2005 following the death of his father.  The three main religious institutes in Togo have backed calls to postpone the December elections, questioning the transparency and accountability of the current ballot process. ADVICE: Opposition groups are likely to defy the government order and continue with planned protests in major urban centres leading to localised clashes with security forces. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. ARMENIA: Yerevan, Urban Centres (Low) – Snap parliamentary elections due to be held on 9 December, unrest possible Following acting Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, decision to resign and dissolve parliament, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has announced that snap elections will be held on 9 December.  The decision comes a month after tens of thousands of people protested in the Armenia capital, Yerevan, against a bill that would make it increasingly difficult for the prime minister to call for new elections.  Armenia experienced a peaceful revolution in May this year when hundreds of thousands of people protested the perceived corruption and cronyism within Armenia’s ruling class, forcing the Prime Minister, Serzh Sargsyan, to resign. ADVICE: While protests generally pass of peacefully, travellers should avoid all election-related gatherings as a precaution, Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Jordan:  Amman (Moderate) – Heightened security; travel disruption expected as protests over new tax laws persist In the latest in a series of protests, hundreds of Jordanians took to the streets in the capital Amman on 6 December to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz.  This is the third such protest in Amman following the governments introduction of International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed austerity measures that have ended bread subsidies and increased taxes.  The measures are expected to disproportionately impact low to mid-income earners, reinforcing already existing inequality within the country.  Yesterday’s protest occurred at 17.00 (local time) near Amman’s 4^th circle. Demonstrators attempted to march from the courtyard of Jordan Hospital to the 4^th circle roundabout.    Security forces intervened to stop protesters marching on the roundabout and disrupting traffic at rush hour.  Protests are likely to persist in the coming weeks and clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Avoid all protests as a precaution due to the risk of travel disruption. Violent clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out.  Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Thailand: Countrywide (Low) – Cycling event to cause significant travel disruption, road closures in city centre on 9 December More than 85,000 people have signed up to take part in the Bike Un Ai Rak cycling event on 9 December taking place in the Thai capital, Bangkok.  The event is due to begin at 15.00 (local time), with road closures expected from 12.00 to 19.00 on the day.  Public transport, including buses, sky trains, subways, and expressways will be overcrowded as ticket prices have been waived for those taking part in the event.  Residual travel disruption is expected throughout the city.  Cyclists will begin their ride at the Dusit Palace before making their way south through the city to  Lat Pho Park, south of the Chao Phraya River, they will then return on a similar route.  Up to 25 major roads in central Bangkok with remain closed for the duration of the event and travellers are advised to avoid road travel in central Bangkok. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key event locations to minimise disruption. United Kingdom: London (Low) – Pro-Brexit rally on 9 December likely to cause travel disruption in central London, counter protests expected Thousands of people are expected to attend a pro-Brexit rally demanding there is no ‘betrayal’ by politicians when they vote on Teresa May’s current deal to leave the European Union (EU).  The current proposal on the terms of the divorce between the EU and Great Britain has angered several pro-Brexit politicians who argue the deal is not reflective of what the country voted on during the referendum.  Protesters will meet at the Dorchester hotel in Park Lane before marching on Whitehall, where the rally will be staged.  Far-right politician Tommy Robinson, aka Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, and UKIP leader, Gerard Batten are expected to speak at the event.  A counter-protest has been organised and will run concurrently to the pro-Brexit protest.  While the Metropolitan police have made a statement ensuring that policing will be upscaled in the protest-affected areas, clashes between rival supporters cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between rival protesters in the past, if you are caught near a protest, leave the area immediately, return to a safe location and follow the direction of the local authorities

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GLOBAL HEADLINES: 30 – 06 December 2018

IRAN: Chabahar (Moderate) – Car bomb kills four and injures at least 40 in south eastern port city on 6 November A vehicle-born improvised explosive device was detonated outside the police headquarters in the south eastern port city of Chabahar (Sistan e Baluchistan province), killing four police officer and injuring at least 40 people.  The suicide bomber drove a vehicle laden with explosives at the headquarters but failed to reach the target before detonating the explosives.  Local police officers stationed at a check point outside the building have been commended for stopping the vehicle from reaching its intended target. Ansar al-Fuqran, a Sunni Baloch militant group who want autonomy from Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack.  Iran’s Sistan e Baluchistan province, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, is one of two majority Sunni provinces in Shia dominated Iran and is populated by ethnic Baloch’s who identify closely with the Baluchistan province in Pakistan.  Sistan e Baluchistan suffers one of the highest rates of poverty in the country, remains severely underdeveloped and is largely cut off from the political scene in Tehran.  Livelihoods are centred around cross border smuggling with Pakistan which Iranian security forces are increasingly trying to stop.  While such attacks remain rare due to the capability of Iranian security forces in the region, there remains a persistent threat of terrorist and militant attacks in the region. ADVICE: Travel to Sistan e Baluchistan should be only be considered for business-critical purposes only due to the threat posed by kidnapping, criminality and terrorist attacks.  Organisation’s should work with a local trusted partner to ensure they receive the correct documentation to travel to the region.  Travellers in the province should minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. UKRAINE: Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts (Moderate) – Ukraine’s security forces carry out raids on Russia Orthodox churches; tensions remain elevated Ukraine’s security forces conducted a series of raids on 3 December targeting Orthodox Churches and the homes of Orthodox priests.  Up to eight searches were conducted by security forces in Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts and appeared to target churches who had rejected the recent independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, pledging their allegiance to the Russian branch of the Orthodox church.  The Ukrainian security forces stated that the searches were in response to recent allegations that certain churches were inciting hatred and violence throughout their congregations.  Up to 20 priests have been summoned for questioning by police forces in recent days.  The raids are likely to spark protests by members of the Russian Orthodox church in the coming days and further provoke the already tense political standoff between Russia and Ukraine. ADVICE: Travel to Ukraine remains possible however travellers should stay up to date with local news and regional developments. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any changes in the security environment or travel restrictions in the local area.  Russian males age 16 to 60 remain unable to travel Ukraine at the present time and martial law is in effect till in the ten regions bordering Russia.  Read our latest travel advisory on the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine following the Kerch Strait incident. AFGHANISTAN: Kabul (Severe) – Parliamentary election results found to be invalid, protest likely Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) announced on 6 December that all votes cast in Kabul during the October parliamentary elections are invalid citing 25 conduct reasons for the decision, including mismanagement and fraud.  The findings will now be reviewed by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC).  According to the Afghan constitution, if the findings are ratified by the IEC, the Election Commission will have seven days to arrange secondary polls.  Only 14 of the 33 provinces have announced the official results following the ballot that took place on 20 October, casting doubts on the credibility of the election process.  The announcement by the IECC is expected to be met with anger by Kabul residents and will likely lead to protests in the capital in the coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts.  Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency.

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SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
9 Dec	Armenia	Parliamentary Elections	LOW
9 Dec	Peru	Constitutional Referendum	MODERATE
9 Dec	Tanzania	Independence Day	LOW
10 Dec	Libya	Presidential and Parliamentary elections (Postponed)	HIGH
12 Dec	Kenya	Jamhuri Day (Independence Day)	LOW
16 Dec	Bahrain	National Day	LOW
16 Dec	Kazakhstan	Independence Day	LOW
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	MODERATE
17 Dec	Bhutan	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
18 Dec	Qatar	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	HIGH
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	MODERATE
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
30 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	HIGH
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast Week 49 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

GLOBAL FORECAST: 30 – 06 December

UNITED STATES: MIDWEST STATES (LOW) – Anticipate travel disruption as severe weather warning issued from 30 November to 2 December. The US National Weather Service (NWS) have issued a winter weather warning for large parts of the Mid-West and Northern Plains with blizzard conditions expected from the evening of Friday 30 November until 2 December. Up to 11 inches of snow has been forecast in areas of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota and wind speeds are expected to reach speeds of up to 55 km (35 miles) per hour leading to severe disruption in affected areas. The recent weather warning follows significant disruption in Illinois and Missouri states on 26 and 27 November after blizzard-like conditions left 200,000 homes without power, grounded more than 1700 flights and led to treacherous driving conditions. ADVICE: Travellers currently in, or travelling to, the affected states should reconfirm the status of their flights with the relevant airline or airport, follow all directives issued by local authorities and check the status of routes before embarking on any road move. Early December is historically the busiest travel period in the US and travellers should anticipate a knock-on impact to flights if widespread cancellations are announced. ARGENTINA: BUENOS AIRES (LOW) – Expect travel disruption; heightened security during G20 summit from 30 Nov – 1 Dec World leaders will gather in the capital, Buenos Aires, on 30 November to take part in the two-day G20 summit. Heightened security measures have been implemented throughout the city and the main business district will remain closed for the duration of the summit. The event is being held at the Costa Salguero convention centre and widespread disruption and street closures are expected throughout the Palermo neighbourhood as well as localised anti-G20 protests. Jorge Newbery (AEP), El Palomar (EPA), San Fernando (FDO) and Moron (MXV) airports have been closed to commercial flights to allow for the arrival of foreign dignitaries. Ezeiza International Airport (EZE) will remain open but heightened security and associated disruptions are to be expected. ADVICE: Anticipate disruption throughout Buenos Aires from the 30 November including at Ezeiza International Airport (EZE). Where possible, avoid travel to Palermo neighbourhood and the main business district. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. GEORGIA:  TBILISI (LOW) – Opposition parties to demonstrate on 2 December to denounce election results. A coalition of opposition political groups, including the former ruling party the United National Movement (UNM), have called for anti-government protests to be held in the capital city, Tbilisi, on 2 December amidst widespread accusations that the recent presidential election was rigged. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke via video link from Freedom Square on 29 November to denounce the election process that saw the independent candidate, funded by the Georgian Dream party, Salome Zurabishvili, win a second-round poll with around 60 percent of the vote. Allegations of vote buying, and a rigged polling process have been reported in local media sources and international election observers describe the campaigning process as an ‘uneven playing field’. Protesters are expected to march on Rustaveli Avenue in the morning and remain there throughout the day. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. LIBYA: COUNTRYWIDE (SEVERE) – Anticipate unrest following decision to postpone elections till spring 2019. An international summit on Libya, held in Italy on 12 November, concluded with the announcement that the Libyan parliamentary and presidential elections will be postponed till spring. The decision was made following the increase in violence in recent months between rival groups and the failure of the two parallel governing bodies to agree on the terms of the election process. At present the UN-backed Government of National Accord, made up of powerful Misrata and Tripoli-based militias, govern in the west of the country while the House of Representative, alongside the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar, govern in the east. The scheduled polls have been seen as a potential tool to reconcile the two governments in an effort to unite the country. The postponement of Parliamentary elections will result in localised protests in urban centres as Libyan nationals call for greater transparency and accountability in the governance process. Violence between rival militia groups is expected to continue as they compete for power and control in certain areas of the country. ADVICE: All travel to Libya should be supported by an accredited and trusted security provider with 24-hour response capability, secure journey management procedures as well as in-country intelligence and logistics support. Travellers in-country should stay up to date with local media and liaise with their security provider regarding the feasibility of ground movement during periods of unrest.

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GLOBAL HEADLINES 23 – 29 NOVEMBER

RUSSIA; UKRAINE: KERCH STRAIT (MODERATE) – Tensions elevated as Russia seize Ukrainian naval vessels in Kerch Strait on 25 November The Russian Federal Security Services (FSB) border guard rammed, then fired upon, three Ukrainian naval vessels before boarding and detaining 23 Ukrainian sailors on 25 November.  It is the first Russian-acknowledged use of force against Ukraine since the 2014 escalation of violence in Crimea.  According to Ukrainian media, at least six crewmen were injured during the incident which occurred in the strategically important Kerch Strait, a thin waterway between mainland Russia and Crimea and the only transit route to the sea of Azov.  The waterway remains crucial to Ukrainian economic and military interests as it is the only route that serves the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine.  The 23 Ukrainian crewmen are now being held by Russian forces in Russian annexed Crimea.  Ukraine immediate response to the incident was to call the attack, ‘an act of aggression’, while also rushing a Presidential decree through parliament, declaring 30-days of martial law in the ten regions of Ukraine bordering Russia. ADVICE: While the escalation in tensions between the two countries represents a concern for travellers, especially those operating near Russian annexed Crimea, it is unlikely that the incident will prompt anything more than a political response.  Russian males will not be allowed to enter Ukraine from 30 November.  Anti-Russia protests were held outside the Russian embassy in Kiev on 26 November causing minor disruption around the embassy.  Travellers should remain up to date with local intelligence and media and avoid all protests as a precaution. AFGHANISTAN: KABUL (SEVERE) – Ten people killed after compound of security firm targeted in complex attack on 28 November At least ten people were killed and 19 were injured following a complex attack on a compound run by a British security company in Kabul. At 18.30, a vehicle based improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated at the entrance to the compound before armed men stormed the building leading to a fierce firefight between armed security staff and the attackers. The attack occurred hours after Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, outlined his plans to promote peace in the country. The Taliban have subsequently claimed responsibility for the attack stating that the compound was considered by the group to be a base for occupying forces and has been used to carry out attacks with Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The attack comes amidst growing anti-government protests in Kabul calling for greater political transparency and security. Thirty people have subsequently been injured following the use of live ammunition by security forces attempting to disperse protesters. ADVICE: Travel to Afghanistan should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by an accredited security provider. Terror groups have shown both the desire and capability to launch attacks in the capital Kabul. If travel is business critical, minimise time spent around religious sites, government buildings and police checkpoints. Always seek the advice of a trained security specialist prior to travel. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC): KINSHASA (HIGH) – US Embassy Kinshasa remains closed for the fifth consecutive day on 30 November following possible terrorist threat The US embassy in the capital, Kinshasa, has remained shut for a fifth consecutive day following credible and precise information of a possible terrorist threat against US government facilities in Kinshasa. The embassy released a statement to its citizens on Monday 26 November via its website urging US citizens to remain vigilant and keep a low profile. The closure comes four weeks ahead of the DRC legislative and presidential elections which have been delayed for two years. Congolese government authorities have played down the threat, stating that the US embassy has over-reacted to the incident. Although it is not known who has issued a threat toward the US, multiple militias groups are currently engaged in clashes including, the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). On 12 March 2017, a US national and special investigator for the UN was killed alongside his Swedish colleague by rebels near the city of Kananga (Lulua province) while investigating government abuses in the province.  While UN investigations found the militant group Kamuina Nsapu complicit in the killing, several other investigations have identified that Congolese intelligence service, the Agence Nationale de Renseignements (ANR), were linked to the attack. ADVICE: Travellers in Kinshasa should maintain a low profile and exercise vigilance while in Kinshasa. Avoid the area near the US embassy and continue to monitor their website and local news sources for up to date information. Traveller should consider minimising movement in the city during the build-up to the election as widespread unrest is expected.

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UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
30 Nov	Argentina	G20 Summit	LOW
Nov (exp)	Chad	Legislative elections (postponed)	HIGH
1 Dec	Central African Rep.	National Day	MODERATE
1 Dec	Mexico	Presidential Inauguration	MODERATE
2 Dec	Laos	National Day	LOW
2 Dec	UAE	National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates	NEGLIGIBLE
3 Dec	Poland	Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice,	NEGLIGIBLE
10 Dec	Libya	Presidential and Parliamentary elections (postponed)	HIGH
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	MODERATE
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	HIGH
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	MODERATE
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
23 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	HIGH
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH

 

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 48 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

GLOBAL FORECAST: 23 – 30 NOVEMBER

GUINEA-BISSAU: URBAN CENTRES (MODERATE) – Anticipate protests following further delay in legislative elections A further delay in the deadline for voter registration has led to the postponement of legislative elections in Guinea Bissau. The polls that were meant to take place on November 18 have now been pushed back to an undetermined date. Local reports suggest only 230,000 people of the estimated 900,000 eligible voters have been registered to vote. In response to the latest interruption in election proceedings, opposition and civil society groups are expected to launch a series of rallies demanding transparency and accountability in the capital Bissau and other urban centres. On 21 October, thousands of people peacefully demonstrated in Bissau over the irregularities in the voter registration process leading to severe traffic disruptions. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.

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ARGENTINA: ALL AIRPORTS (LOW) – Aviation and transport sector workers strike on 26; 27 November, severe disruption expected Employees and union members of national carrier Aerolineas Argentinas will hold a 24-hour strike on 26 November following the suspension of 376 of their colleagues who had taken part in a previous strike on 8 November. The strike will cause significant delays at all airports throughout the country, with up to 100% of flights cancelled. The 8 November strike led to the grounding of 258 flights with up to 30,000 passengers affected. Transport Unions are also planning to hold a nationwide public sector strike on 27 November from 04.00 to 07.00 (local time) affecting flights, ferries and all public transport. ADVICE: Reconfirm flight schedules with your airline before travelling to the airport. In the event of cancellations consult your travel provider for alternative arrangements.

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NIGERIA:  ABUJA, LAGOS, URBAN CENTRES (HIGH) – Electoral campaign period officially begins ahead of 16 February presidential election. The official campaign period began on 19 November ahead of 16 February 2019 presidential election. Travellers should anticipate a substantial increase in the frequency of political rallies and demonstrations in most major urban centres throughout Nigeria, including in the capital, Abuja, as well as the commercial centre, Lagos. Rallies are likely to cause disruption in urban centres and lead to road closures. Civil society groups will also use the opportunity to launch anti-government and anti-corruption protests. Most rallies are likely to arrange with local authorities ahead of time and pass off relatively peacefully however, security forces have a history of using tear gas and live ammunition when trying to disperse demonstrators. On 23 November, protesters amassed outside the US embassy to demand free and fair elections and draw international attention to the ongoing insecurity currently felt throughout the country. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.

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FRANCE: COUNTRYWIDE (LOW) – Anticipate travel disruption as protests over increases in fuel prices continue Protest over the increase in fuel prices are expected to continue this weekend causing widespread travel disruption throughout urban centres in France. Over the past week protesters have attempted to block motorways and petrol stations leading to severe traffic delays in Pairs, Avignon, Bordeaux and Strasbourg. Organisers of the protest have stated that on Saturday, 24 November, they will launch mass protests in Paris in an attempt to bring the capital to a standstill. Demonstrations are likely to affect most major roads in the capital including the A1 and A3 highways that connect central Paris to Charles de Gaulle Airport.  To read more please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between motorists and protesters, if you are caught in traffic caused by protests, remain in your car and follow the direction of the local authorities.

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GLOBAL HEADLINES 16 – 23 NOVEMBER

BELGIUM: BRUSSELS (LOW) – Policeman stabbed near Grand Place on 20 November, motives unclear A policeman was stabbed, sustaining nonlife threatening injuries, in the early hours of the morning in central Brussels. The attacker, a Belgian national, was subsequently shot and wounded as police officers responded to the incident near Grand Place in the historic centre of the city.  Local news agencies have reported that the attacker shouted “Allahu Akbar” during the incident. The assailant had been recently released from prison following a conviction for attempted manslaughter. In a remarkably similar attack on 30 May a gunman, who police believe was radicalised in prison, killed two police officers and one civilian in a religiously motivated attack in Liege before being shot and killed by police.  The Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for the May incident. While intelligence and counter-terrorism measures have improved in Belgium since the March 2016 coordinated suicide bombings, small scale, lone wolf attacks remain possible. ADVICE: Travellers in Belgium should maintain situational awareness and report any suspicious behaviour to the police.  Minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. If visiting tourist attractions, avoid peak hours.

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AFGHANISTAN: KABUL (SEVERE) – Suicide explosion kills at least 60 at religious ceremony on 20 Nov At least 50 people were killed and over 80 were injured following a suicide bombing at 18:15 (local time) at Uranus Wedding Hall in police district 15, north of Kabul. Religious scholars had gathered at the wedding hall to celebrate the birthdate of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad (Eid Milad-un-Nabi). The Taliban immediately released a statement denying their involvement in the attack. While no group has yet claimed responsibility, the Islamic State in Khoresan (IS-K), an Islalmic State affiliate, have launched a string of attacks against religious minority groups over the last 12 months, calling them heretics and non-believers. To read more please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travel to Afghanistan should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by an accredited security provider. Islamist groups have shown both the desire and capability to launch attacks in the capital Kabul. If travel is business critical, minimise time spent around religious sites, government buildings and police check points. Always seek the advice of a trained security specialist prior to travel.

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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC): TANGANYIKA PROVINCE (HIGH) – Two American humanitarian workers killed by militants on 15 Nov Two aid workers were killed by armed militants while returning from a field visit 80 km from their office in Kalemie in the south eastern province of Tanganyika. The aid workers had been travelling by motorcycle on the road when they were stopped and shot by the armed militants. It is not yet known if the incident was motivated by criminal or other intent. Since 2016, inter-ethnic violence between the indigenous Twa and migrant Bantu populations has led to widespread displacement and insecurity in the region. Twelve refugee camps are located near Kalemie managing over 70 thousand people. In recent months there has been an escalation in attacks targeting humanitarian workers and international organisations throughout DRC’s eastern provinces. On 17 November an international NGO had its vehicles looted in Baraka (South Kivu) and on 20 November armed men attacked and looted international NGO compound in Lulimba (south Kivu). Attacks on International NGOs are likely to continue due to the high presence of armed militias and a worsening economic situation. ADVICE: Staff should understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency. Prioritise establishing networks with other organisations operating in the area with clear information sharing arrangements. Remain up to date with the latest location specific security information and trends by monitoring news sources and security alerts.

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UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
24 Nov	Bahrain	Parliamentary elections	High
24 Nov	Australia	State elections	Insignificant
25 Nov	Mali	Legislative elections	High
25 Nov	Bosnia	Republic Day	Low
25 Nov	Suriname	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Albania	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Mauritania	Independence Day	Low
30 Nov	Argentina	G20 Summit	Insignificant
Nov (exp)	Chad	Legislative elections (date not announced)	High
1 Dec	Central African Rep.	National Day	Moderate
2 Dec	Laos	National Day	Low
2 Dec	UAE	National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates	Insignificant
3 Dec	Poland	Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice,	Insignificant
10 Dec	Libya	Presidential and Parliamentary elections	High
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	Moderate
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	High
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	Moderate
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	High
23 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	High
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	High

 

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 47 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

The main area of activity in the past two weeks has been in the Gulf of Guinea. There have been numerous boardings and attacks; this includes a kidnapping that required Nigerian Navy intervention. By contrast, the Indian Ocean HRA has been relatively quiet over the past weeks with no significant incidents since the attack on 16 October off the Somali coast and the two suspicious approaches in Bab el Mandeb Strait at the beginning of November. Elsewhere, the Mediterranean has been seeing GPS outages near Port Said and Cyprus since March. While it remains unclear what is causing these disruptions, it is likely that military operations by both the Egyptian military and the Russian Navy are the cause. Please see below for more:

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Gulf of Guinea

11 November: Vessel attacked and boarded by armed men near Bonny, Nigeria. A drifting UK-flagged bulk carrier was attacked and boarded by armed pirates at position 4°7’0 N 7°0’0 E. The boarders stole ship stores, robbed the vessel and kidnapped 10 members of the crew before escaping. Nigerian Navy vessels intercepted the pirates and freed the hostages. 11 November: MV attacked by armed men in blue boat, Niger River, Nigeria. A MV was attacked by eight armed men at 0600 UTC 2nm off the mouth of the River Niger, Nigeria. The attackers were in a small blue-coloured boat, wore black/dark clothes, and covered their faces. The security team onboard the vessel thwarted the attack; however, the assailants escaped. 14 November: Tanker boarded near Lagos, Nigeria. An intruder was spotted onboard by a crewmember who sounded the alarm. As the crew gathered, the intruder fled by jumping overboard. No items were stolen and no injuries to the crew were reported. The authorities are investigating the incident. 14 November: A black speedboat with six armed men onboard sighted in Emeroke Channel, Nigeria It is unclear what the target of the suspicious vessel was. This is the second such sighting of a suspicious vessel in the area.  On 5 November a similar vessel with armed men on board was sighted near Akwa Ibom Creeks. 19 November: The Nigerian Navy has impounded 52 vessels and arrested 40 people for alleged piracy. According to the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC), Western Naval Command, Rear Admiral Habila Ngalabak, the arrests have occurred over the past two to three months as part of a push against piracy-related activities in this period. 22 November: Nigerian flagged vessel boarded by pirates in the Gulf of Guinea, south of Kwa Ibo. The crew took refuge in the citadel as the pirates boarded the vessel. The boarders left via a blue hulled boat before a security vessel managed to intervene. The crew is reported safe and no crewmen were kidnapped. However, there was some damage to the bridge. The direction that the pirates escaped in is unknown.

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Bab El-Mandeb Strait 

November: Arab Coalition Forces destroy 16 naval mines off Yemen’s west coast. According to Arab coalition sources, the mines had been planted by Houthi militants in international waters. It is unclear if further mines remain in the area.

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Mediterranean

11 November: Multiple instances of GPS interference reported by vessels and aircraft operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. These reports have been concentrated near Port Said and the Suez Canal, Egypt, as well as in the vicinity of the Republic of Cyprus. Additional instances of similar interference were reported in October 2018 near Jeddah Port, Saudi Arabia.  This interference results in the loss of, or altering of, GPS signals; affecting bridge navigation, GPS-based timing and communications equipment. 17 November: Six Greenpeace activists boarded tanker Stolt Tenacity in Gulf of Cadiz Greenpeace reportedly targeted the vessel as a sign of protest against rainforest destruction in Indonesia; as the ship was carrying palm oil products from Wilmar International. According to Greenpeace, Wilmar is a major supplier to global snack food giant Mondelez; one of the world’s largest purchasers of palm oil. The captain of the vessel detained the borders.

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Persian Gulf and India

17 November: Boarding at Kakinada Anchorage in India. Unnoticed, robbers boarded an anchored product tanker, stole ship’s stores and escaped. The theft was noticed during routine rounds. Port control and agents were informed. 18 November: Iranian Navy vows to maintain its presence on the high seas. An Iranian Navy commander has vowed that Iran’s navy is vital to secure the country’s interests despite threats from the US and a recent incident with UK destroyer HMS Diamond. He also insisted that the country’s “strong” navy would maintain its presence on the high seas so that other countries will not “take advantage”. There was also talk of the Iranian navy operating in the Atlantic “whenever necessary”.

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Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 46-47 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Headlines From This Week

 

• United States: Wildfires ongoing in California as latest death toll hits record numbers – Fifty-six people have been killed and 130 people are unaccounted for in the deadliest wildfire ever recorded in California state. The blaze, which started as a result of a campfire, spread rapidly towards urban centres in northern California fuelled by the critically dry vegetation and strong winds. Over 52,000 people have been evacuated from Paradise, Magalia, Concow, Butte Creek Canyon and Butte Valley and rest centres have been established outside the fire zone. More than 9,000 firefighters have been deployed to help tackle the blaze and thousands in the affected area remain without power. Travellers should avoid all areas affected by the wildfire, especially where mandatory evacuation orders are in place. Liaise with local contacts to determine the feasibility of routes and overland journeys. Follow all directives issued by the authorities.

 

• Mozambique: Latest attack highlights continued militant threat in Cabo Delgado – In the early hours of 15 November, militants in Cabo Delgado province attacked Nagalue village, Macomia district killing one person and destroying homes and shops. Residents fled into the surrounding areas upon hearing the attack. Armed groups have been launching small-scale attacks in Cabo Delgado since October 2017, targeting police stations, shops and houses in the province leading to 90 death of mostly civilians. Unlike terror incidents, the armed group are yet to claim responsibility for the attacks or make any demands. While most of the militants are rumoured to be of Muslim faith, there is a limited religious connection to the attacks, suggesting they may be linked to the worsening socio-economic situation in the region. Foreign visitors planning on travel to Cabo Delgado should limit movements to daylight hours only and ensure secure journey management is in place for the duration of their travel.

 

• Somalia: Complex attack in capital Mogadishu underscores continued capability of terrorist groups to attack high profile targets – Fifty people were killed and over 100 injured in a complex, multi-target attack in the Hodan district of the capital. Three vehicle-based explosive devices detonated outside three main buildings on the busy KM4 roundabout near the first checkpoint for Mogadishu International Airport (MIA). One of the buildings targeted was the Sahafi Hotel and militants attempted to storm the building after the blasts. Al Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack which is the first major attack on the capital for several months. Somalia remains a severe risk travel environment and all travel should be supported by an accredited security provider with 24-hour response capability. Accommodation should be booked inside the secure MIA compound.

 

• Israel, Palestinian Territories: Ceasefire between Hamas and Israeli Government ends three-day escalation in violence in southern Israel and Hamas controlled Gaza – Tensions between the two groups escalated after Israel launched a military operation in the Gaza strip leading to the first direct ground confrontation between the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and Hamas since Operation Protection Edge in 2014. One Israeli soldier and seven Palestinians were killed in the raid and Israeli air defence was needed to support the evacuation of the IDF unit. In response to the incursion, Hamas launched a rocket that destroyed a military bus and injured a soldier. Israel retaliated by targeting and destroying an alleged munitions storage site, an intelligence base and television station. Hamas subsequently launched 400 missiles at Israel over the next 48 hours and the IDF targeting more than 100 sites in Gaza. The ceasefire, which has brought an end to the current hostilities, has been met with condemnation by the Israeli parliament and the situation should be monitored by all travellers going to southern Israel in the coming months.

 

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What To Look Out For Next Week

 

• Bahrain: National assembly elections to be held 24 November, amidst rising tensions between Shia and Sunni communities – In June 2018, legislation approved by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa banned most opposition parties from running in November election. Al-Wefaq, the main opposition party, subsequently called for all Shia aligned political parties to boycott of the elections. On 4 November, Bahrain sentenced three prominent Al-Wefaq politicians to life imprisonment on charges of spying including their secretary general, Sheikh Ali Salman. Tensions between the ruling powers in Bahrain and Shia opposition groups has been evident since 2011, when Shia communities participated in widespread anti-government protests. Since 2011, protests have been held weekly in smaller Shia villages, outside the capital Manama. While the Bahrain government will try and suppress political protests during the election period, travellers should anticipate protests in areas close to Manama. Low-level Shia militant attacks cannot be ruled out and travellers should minimise their time spent near potential targets.

 

• Bangladesh: Election date deferred until 30 December, anticipate unrest in coming weeks as political campaigning begins Opposition parties had requested a longer deferral from the Bangladesh Election Committee (BEC), in order to prepare for the upcoming elections. The main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted parliamentary elections in 2014 due to perceived corruption and fraud by the ruling Awami League resulting in 154 of the 300 parliamentary being uncontested. The perceived injustice and lack of free and fair elections led to countrywide protests and widespread violence. The military were subsequently deployed, and curfews were imposed in several neighbourhoods. Fears that the 2018 election would result in a major deterioration of the security environment have been allayed by the involvement of the main opposition groups; however, existing tensions are likely to lead to major unrest in urban centres. On 14 November 32 people were injured when the BNP and security forces clashed in Dhaka as supporters accompanied a BNP candidate to pick up their election nomination papers. Travellers should anticipate an uptick in political demonstrations and rallies in the coming weeks as parties start campaigning. Travellers should further, take all precautions necessary to avoid all such gatherings.

 

• Cameroon: Violence to continue in Northwest and Southwest regions – Clashes between the Cameroon military and Anglophone separatists have escalated since the re-election of Paul Biya in October, causing a further deterioration in the security environment. Separatist announced a boycott prior to the 7 October polls, leading to historically low voter turnout, with many residents fearful of repercussions if they tried to vote. Violence has subsequently escalated since Paul Biya’s re-election was announced, with clashes between the military and insurgents being reported daily and schools and government-run institutions being targeted by insurgents. The separatist movement gathered pace last year when the Cameroon military forcefully repressed peaceful protests calling for the declaration of an independent Anglophone state. In response the Cameroon military used forceful measures to end the unrest, killing protesters and arresting the main leaders of the separatist movement. Over the last 12 months, the situation has escalated dramatically with over 300 separate security incidents being reported since January. With no current dialogue between the insurgents and the government, the crisis, and increasing insecurity, will likely continue in the medium to long-term. The Northwest region remains under curfew and road travel is only possible between 06.00 and 18.00 (local time). Travel to the region should be for essential purposed only and supported by an accredited security with 24-hour response capability.

 

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
18 Nov	Guinea Bissau	Legislative elections	POSTPONED
18 Nov	Latvia	Independence Day	Insignificant
18 Nov	Morocco	Independence Day	Insignificant
18 Nov	Oman	National Day (2-day holiday)	Insignificant
21, 23 Nov	Thailand	Lantern Festival (disruption at Chang Mai, reconfirm flights)	Insignificant
22 Nov	Lebanon	Independence Day	Low
24 Nov	Bahrain	Parliamentary elections	Moderate
24 Nov	Australia	State elections	Insignificant
25 Nov	Mali	Legislative elections	High
25 Nov	Bosnia	Republic Day	Low
25 Nov	Suriname	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Albania	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Mauritania	Independence Day	Low
Nov (exp)	Chad	Legislative elections (date not announced)	High
1 Dec	Central African Rep.	National Day	Moderate
2 Dec	Laos	National Day	Low
2 Dec	UAE	National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates	Insignificant
3 Dec	Poland	Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice,	Insignificant

 

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. The Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Headlines From This Week

• Untied States: California: Mass Shooting in Bar – Twelve people were killed, and multiple injuries reported, after a gunman opened fire at 23.20 in a crowded bar on 7 November. The Borderline Bar and Grill was hosting a live music event for students when the gunman forced his way into the bar and threw a smoke grenade before opening fire on the crowd. The perpetrator was killed after security forces entered and secured the building. No motive for the attack has been identified and investigations are ongoing. There have been 307 mass shootings in the US since 1 January.  The attack highlights a continued threat posed by mass shootings throughout the US and travellers should remain vigilant when in public areas.
• France: Arrest of six people in connection with far-right terrorist plot – French security forces apprehended six people over an alleged plot to attack French President Emmanuel Macron. According to local reports the suspects, aged between 20 and 60, were all members of a far-right movement and one of the suspects was found in possession of a firearm when he was arrested. The recent arrests, while indicating the capability of the intelligence services to identify and disrupt such plots, highlight an uptick in right-wing extremism across Europe that is likely to persist in the medium to long term.
• Yemen: Hodeidah: Fighting intensifies near port city – The Saudi-led coalition have started a renewed offensive against the vital port city, launching over 100 airstrikes on the eastern part of Hodeidah in the last 72 hours and cutting off all access routes. The increase in hostilities comes amidst calls from international governments to negotiate a ceasefire due to increasing civilian casualties. UN-sponsored peace talks are scheduled to take place in Sweden at the end of November and the recent Saudi-led offensive is believed to be a tactic to secure as much ground as possible prior to any cease fire being implemented.  The port has been under blockade by the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, a decision that has been blamed for the current humanitarian crisis affecting 14 million people in Yemen. Despite the blockade, over 70 percent of food and medical supplies for Houthi held areas of Yemen come through Hodeidah.
• Sahel Region: Burkina Faso; Chad; Niger; Mauritania, Mali: Islamist militants intensify attacks against security forces – There has been an escalation in attacks being committed by Islamist groups against security forces in the Sahel region. On 8 November, a Police Station was attacked by militants in Soum province (Sahel region) and two days earlier two soldiers were killed in the same province of Burkina Faso following the detonation of an IED near a military convoy.   On 3 November Nigerien military units engaged with Islamist militants in Tillaberi region, along the border with Mali and Burkina Faso, destroying several training camps associated with Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). On 27 October, Islamist militants launched two attacks on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in Tombouctou and Mopti regions. Militants launched a complex attack on the MINUSMA military base in Ber, killing two peacekeepers. A further attack targeted a MINUSMA convoy with an IED, injuring two peacekeepers. The recent escalation in violence highlights a continued deterioration in the security environment and travellers should seek professional security advice prior to travel to any of the border regions.

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What To Look Out For Next Week

• Pape New Guinea (PNG): APEC Economic Leaders Meeting (AELM) to cause travel disruption in Port Moresby from 12 – 18 November – The Summit brings national delegates from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation together and is the final event of PNGs APEC hosting year. The main two event venues include the International Convention centre and APEC Haus and travellers in country should anticipate severe disruption around both the venues. Local authorities have drafted in additional police resources in an effort to bolster security. Road closures should be expected, especially when dignitaries are moving between venues and Jacksons International Airport. The PNG government has been widely criticised amongst opposition and religious leaders in the country due to the high levels of spending on the event. PNG remains one of the poorest countries in the region and the summit is likely to result in protests over both, internal socio-economic issues and global issues affecting PNG, such as climate change. Such protests are expected to be localised and quickly contained. Nevertheless, as a precaution, all such protests should be avoided.
• Myanmar / Bangladesh: Repatriation of Rohingya refugees set to begin – The governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar have agreed to begin the repatriation of 750,000 Rohingya refugees who fled western Rakhine state in 2017 following widescale ethnic violence directed towards Muslim communities. For the last year the Rohingya’s have been living in camps established in south-eastern Bangladesh near the coastal town of Cox’s Bazar. The presence of refugees in the region has added considerable strain to the Bangladesh economy and lead to tensions between local communities and refugee communities, over competition for scarce natural resources. The repatriation agreement has been met by widespread condemnation from international groups, including the UN, who state that the Rohingya’s are at high risk of persecution if they return. The UN’s High Commission for Refugees also added that Rakhine state was not yet in a conducive state for returns. The announcement has led to isolated protests in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh with one refugee attempting to commit suicide after being told that he would be involuntarily repatriated.  Any forced repatriation is likely to be met by strong resistance by Rohingya communities and widespread unrest and civil disobedience remains likely in the coming weeks.
• France: Travel disruption expected during protests near Place de la Republique, Paris, on 11 November – French civil action groups have called for a widespread protest following President Macron’s decision to invite US President Donald Trump as honoured guest to the 100^th anniversary commemorative event celebrating Armistice Day, the end of World War I. Protesters will gather at 14.00 on 11 November in Republic Square. The event is likely to be well attended and result in widespread traffic disruption in the local area. Travellers should plan routes bypassing the event and anticipate heightened security in the local area.

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Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

28 October 18: Pirate whaler seized and destroyed by EU NAVFOR: EU NAVFOR military personnel seized an active Pirate Action Group (PAG) whaler on 28 October before destroying the vessel in a controlled explosion.  The whaler had been under surveillance since a merchant vessel was attacked off the coast of Somalia on 16 October (see maritime advisory). Following investigations by EU NAVFOR it was concluded that it was likely that the vessel would be used to launch further attacks on maritime shipping transiting the area.  The vessel was tracked to a small bay off the Somali coast, where it was seized and destroyed. 23 October 18: Royal Navy vessel intercepted by Iranian attack boats in the Persian Gulf.  HMS Dragon, a Royal Navy type 45 Destroyer, was intercepted by three Iranian gun boats while escorting British vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident sparked a stand-off between the two naval forces. The Iranian gunships demanded that the British vessels remain 1000 yards clear of their port side.  Following communications between the Officer of the Watch and the Iranian authorities the Iranian vessels eventually moved aside however, the incident highlights ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf.

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Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

22 October 18: Vessel boarded at Pointe Noire.   Suspected criminals boarded an anchored MV at 23.28 LT in position 4°46°46N – 11°47°30E off Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo.  The two armed men boarded the vessel via the anchor chain and proceeded to steal ropes before disembarking.  Crew and vessel have been reported safe. 27 October 18: MV attacked 60nm from Bonny, Nigeria. At 04.00 LT a distress call was received on the Emergency Broadcast Channel 16 from a MV in position 03°21N 006°30E.  The vessel declared that it was being chased by two skiffs before it started moving in a circular motion.  The attack has since been confirmed by the Nigerian Navy. 11 crew members are suspected to have been kidnapped, nine further crew members were left on board, unharmed.  An investigation by Nigerian authorities is underway. 29 October 18: Two MV under attack 102nm of Pointe Noire.  Two vessels were reported under attack at 12.50 LT in position 04°47S 010°07E.  One MV and its crew are safe however the second MV is reported hijacked.  Last position recorded at 14.24 LT at position 04°42S 010°04E.  A further report indicates a third vessel was subsequently hijacked but has now been released.

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Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

17 October 18: Anchored Bulk Carrier boarded by criminals at Muara Berau Anchorage, Samarinda   Two armed men boarded an anchored bulk carrier.  The duty seaman notified the duty officer after noticing intruders on forecastle deck.  The alarm was raised and crew mustered.  On investigation, the ship stores were reportedly stolen.  The relevant authorities were notified of incident.

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

16 October 18: MV attacked off 340nm east of Mogadishu, Somalia. Four pirates in a speed boat approached an underway bulk carrier at 1234 UTC in position 00°49N, 050°53E.  The pirates, armed with AK-47s, fired several shots towards the vessel prompting the Master to raise the alarm, contact local authorities and activate the ship security alarm system (SSAS).  The crew mustered and armed guards onboard the vessel returned fire, resulting in the pirates aborting the attack and moving out of site.  All crew reported safe. 16 October 18: Alain Goma freed after being held by Houthi rebels for four months in Sana’a, Yemen.  Intense negotiations between the French Envoy to Yemen and Houthi leaders resulted in the release of the French citizen.  Goma had been held since July when his vessel was damaged on a sailing trip forcing him to dock at the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was being occupied by the Houthi rebels.  He was later transferred to Sana’a’s main prison.  French authorities thanked both Omani and Saudi authorities for their subsequent intervention in negotiations.

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Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

14 October 18: Vessel boarded at Lagos Anchorage.  Two suspected criminals boarded an anchored product tanker at 0045 LT in position 6°17°2N – 3°13°87E in Lagos’ Secure Anchorage Area, Nigeria.  The duty watchman was alerted to their presence and quickly raised the alarm and sounded the ships horn, both intruders subsequently disembarked the vessel.  The tanker was searched and the incident was reported to local authorities who dispatch a patrol vessel. This latest incident highlights an uptick in the number of vessels being bordered while at Lagos port or anchorage.  Since January 2018, 14 intrusions have been reported, a clear rise from the six reported throughout 2017.

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Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

12 October 18: Italian Prime Ministers announces that two Italian vessels seized by Libya forces will return home.  On 10 October the Libyan National Army released a statement saying that they had seized the vessels in Libyan territorial waters and brought them to Ras al-Hilal port.  The two fishing vessels and their crews have now been authorised to return back to Italy.

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Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 October 18: LATE Anchored LPG Tanker boarded off Kandla. Criminals bordered the LPG tanker in position 22°48°1N, 68°58°3E at Deedayal Anchorage and raided the ships stores before escaping.  The theft went unnoticed by the ships crew and was only realised on a routine stowaway search at 17.30 UTC on 10 October.  The incident was reported to Port Control.

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Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 42 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.