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Alert+

Tsunami Alerts Issued After Kamchatka Earthquake

Tsunami Threat Expands After Major 8.8 Earthquake Strikes Kamchatka

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 30 JULY 2025

At 11:24 local time (23:24 UTC) on 30 July, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck near the Kamchatka Peninsula in the far east of Russia. The tremor was shallow, occurring at a depth of 20.7 kilometres. The epicentre was located 136 kilometres east-southeast of Petrovalosk-Kamchatsky.

The immediate impact in parts of Kamchatka was severe. Tsunami waves up to five metres devastated the town of Severo-Kruilsk, and strong shaking in the city of Petrovalosk-Kamchatsky caused power and mobile outages, building damage, and multiple injuries.

Tsunami warnings and evacuation orders have been triggered in coastal regions across much of the Pacific, including Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, and California. The US Tsunami Warning System has issued the following warnings:

Tsunami waves over three metres possible: Ecuador, Russia, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Tsunami waves between one and three metres possible: Chile, Costa Rica, French Polynesia, Guam, Hawaii, Japan, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kiribati, Midway Island, Palmyra Island, Peru, Samoa, Solomon Islands

Tsunami waves between 0.3 and one metre possible: Antarctica, Australia, Chuuk, Colombia, Cook Islands, El Salvador, Fiji, Guatemala, Howland and Baker Islands, Indonesia, Kermadec Islands, Kosrae, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Pitcairn Islands, Pohnpei, Taiwan, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wake Island, Wallis and Futuna, American Samoa, Yap

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued warnings of tsunami heights of up to three metres for coastal areas from Hokkaido to Wakayama Prefecture, with evacuation advisories being issued for nearly two million people in over 220 municipalities. Employees at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant have been ordered to evacuate. The tallest wave recorded at the time of writing was 1.3 metres, at Kuji Port in Iwate Prefecture.

In Hawaii, evacuation warnings were issued across Maui and Oahu, including the state capital, Honolulu, with flights being cancelled as a precaution. Waves as high as 1.8 metres have been recorded near Hawaii.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The earthquake is the joint sixth-largest recorded globally since 1900, and the strongest since Japanʼs 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake. The Kamchatka Peninsula is situated along the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire, a horseshoe-shaped tectonic belt which spans most of the coastal Pacific and is responsible for approximately 90 per cent of the worldʼs earthquakes.

The shallow depth of the earthquake is a key cause of the extensive tsunami threat. The effects of tsunamis will almost certainly depend on the disaster resilience of the countries affected. Hawaii and Japan, two locations anticipated to experience the greatest tsunami impact, both have comprehensive disaster preparedness measures which have highly likely mitigated the potential impact.

In Japan, the suspension of high-speed rail, mass evacuations, emergency broadcasting, and automated sea gates have all contributed towards a low risk to life as of the time of writing. In Hawaii, the rapid issuance of evacuation orders and pre-emptive measures to protect critical infrastructure, such as the shutting down of water supply valves, have likewise considerably reduced the risk to life. The effectiveness of the evacuation orders in Hawaii has been notable, particularly in contrast with the emergency communications system failures that exacerbated the impact of the 2023 Maui wildfires.

In multiple areas with issued tsunami warnings, the level of disruption is high, with significant air travel disruption, high levels of traffic congestion, and the sudden suspension of business activity.


Travel and Safety Guidance in Response to Tsunami Warnings

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • If in a location with an active tsunami warning, immediately move to high ground or as far inland as possible, away from the coastline.
  • Be alert to signs of a tsunami, such as a sudden rise or draining of ocean waters.
  • If you are in a boat, face the direction of the waves and go out to sea.
  • If near the epicentre of the earthquake, expect aftershocks. Be prepared to Drop, Cover, Hold On in case of further tremors.
  • During a tremor, if outside, do not enter buildings and move away from buildings, trees, streetlights and overhead lines.
  • If inside, pick a safe place (under a sturdy table or desk, or against an interior wall and away from windows and heavy furniture). Do not leave until the shaking stops.
  • If evacuating a building, always use the stairs. Look out for fires and falling debris.
  • Prepare an emergency ‘go bagʼ with essentials such as bottled water, batteries, important documents, and medications.
  • Heed evacuation orders and travel to government-issued shelters if safe to do so.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Ensure important documents and medications are appropriately stored.
  • Prepare for power outages, communication disruptions, and travel delays.
  • Stay away from damaged buildings and affected areas until authorities deem them safe.
  • Avoid touching floodwaters, which can contain debris, sewage, bacteria, or chemicals.
  • Confirm booked flights are running prior to checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.

Alert+

Civil Unrest in Angola

Widespread Protests Erupt in Luanda as Fuel Price Hike Sparks Unrest

Intelligence cut off: 17:00 BST 29 JULY 2025

Unrest erupted in Luanda, Angola’s capital, on 28 July, as a three-day taxi driver strike against the government’s decision to raise the price of diesel by approximately 33 per cent began. The taxi driver strike quickly evolved into broader anti-government protests as thousands of people joined demonstrations. Protests have resulted in clashes, roadblocks, looted shops, and destroyed cars, and have continued with intensity into 29 July. Protesters have chanted against fuel price increases and the nearly five-decade rule by the ruling party.

Security forces have reacted forcefully with live ammunition, tear gas, and rubber bullets, killing at least four people in Luanda’s Cazenga area and arresting over 500 across the capital. State-run media has reportedly avoided covering the protests. Despite the clashes and government appeals for an end to the strike, the taxi drivers’ association in Luanda has condemned the violence and casualties but has committed to continuing the strike until at least the 30 July.

According to local media, all access to the Palácio da Cidade Alta is restricted, and the Calemba 2 area of Camama municipality, Campos Universitário Urban District, and 11 de Novembro Street are blocked with barricades. Access to the local hospital on 11 de Novembro Street has been obstructed.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

While the price increase was proposed on 1 July, which has triggered weekly protests, the taxi strike almost certainly acted as a catalyst for Angolan citizens to vent their broader frustrations against the government. The ruling party, People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), has been in power since 1975 and has been facing increasing opposition. Angola’s economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for approximately 90 per cent of export revenues. Global price fluctuations in recent years have triggered high inflation, rising food and transport costs in a country where the average monthly wage is just USD 75.

Angola has a large youth population who are experiencing widespread unemployment and are driving the current wave of unrest. Approximately 65 per cent of Angola’s population is under the age of 24, and only 2 per cent of its population is aged over 65. Social media almost certainly constitutes a tool for organising demonstrations and could be blocked by the government in an attempt to quell the unrest.

Civil unrest will highly likely continue on 30 July, which will be the third and final day of the originally planned taxi driver strike. The forceful reaction from security forces almost certainly aims to deter further protests. However, this could have the adverse effect of further inflaming demonstrations, particularly if footage of violence perpetrated by security forces is widely shared on social media.


Travel Risk Advice for Angola

  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Angola, particularly Luanda.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • The overall security situation in Angola, including Luanda, is likely to remain severe in the coming days.
  • Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts.

Alert+

Thailand-Cambodia Border Clashes

Clashes Intensify on Thailand-Cambodia Border Amid Rising Military Activity

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 24 JULY 2025

The ongoing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has intensified after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine in the disputed area along shared border with Cambodia in Ubon Ratchathani province on 23 July. According to Thai authorities, the mines were newly laid along paths that were supposed to be safe by mutual agreement. The incident prompted Thailand to expel the Cambodian ambassador and close all border crossings with Cambodia, to which Cambodia responded by downgrading diplomatic ties and evacuating its embassy in Bangkok.

In the most significant escalation, on the morning of 24 July, a confrontation involving six Cambodian soldiers and an alleged drone, and several Thai soldiers has triggered direct strikes between the two territories. Thailand and Cambodia have accused each other of provoking the incident.

In response to the clashes, Thailand launched airstrikes at two Cambodian military targets and deployed F-16 fighter jets, which Cambodian media claimed to have downed, something that was refuted by the Thai Air Force as “fake news”. One F-16 fired into Cambodia, destroying a military target, according to a statement by the Thai military. According to Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet, Thailand attacked Cambodian military positions at Prasat Ta Moan Thom and Prasat Ta Krabey in Oddar Meanchey province, and Cambodia’s defence ministry has accused Thailand of targeting a road.

Cambodia has responded with artillery fire into a civilian area in Thailand’s Surin province, according to Thai defence ministry spokesperson. The Thai military has reported at least 12 civilian fatalities, according to latest figures. Artillery fire from Cambodian forces has reportedly caused damage in the Kantharalak district of Si Sa Ket, Thailand, setting a 7-Eleven store ablaze and striking the Phanom Dong Rak Hospital in Surin province. Thai officials have accused Cambodian forces of targeting civilian areas. Cambodia has claimed to have taken control of disputed temples along the border, with reports of Thai soldiers being killed or injured.

The situation has prompted diplomatic responses, with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet seeking intervention from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Despite the conflict, Cambodian authorities report that flights between the two countries are operating normally. Approximately 40,000 citizens have been evacuated from 86 villages in Thailand and evacuations are underway in Preah Vihear, Cambodia. The Thai embassy has urged its citizens to leave Cambodia.

Thailand has also closed its southernmost border checkpoint with Cambodia at Hat Lek in Trat, as clashes continue further north. Both countries have urged civilians not to share photos or videos of the ongoing conflict, indicating a desire to control the narrative and manage the situation domestically.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

After an armed confrontation in the disputed border region of Preah Vihear on 28 May, which resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier, tensions have escalated between the two countries. In the following weeks, border crossing restrictions have been imposed, trade of produce, fuel, and media has been stopped, resulting in protests, economic disruption, and a political crisis in Thailand resulting in the suspension of Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The dispute originates from a 1904 colonial-era agreement between France and Siam using the watershed principle to define the border, but a later French map placed the Preah Vihear Temple in Cambodia. The ICJ ultimately ruled in Cambodia’s favour. Tensions over the disputed region have occasionally escalated, most notably in 2008 following armed skirmishes between Cambodian and Thai troops.

In 2011, both sides engaged in a week-long exchange of artillery, mortars, and rocket fire, triggering at least 15 deaths and 85,000 displacements. The clashes prompted the diplomatic intervention of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and led to both sides agreeing to de-escalate with Indonesian observers monitoring the border. Following the clashes, Bangkok and Phnom Penh agreed to settle future disputes with a Joint Boundary Commission; a means which failed to resolve the current dispute on 15 June.

Given the instability in Thailand, there is an elevated risk of a coup, with the Thai military highly likely exploiting the border crisis with Cambodia to win public favour. Thailand has a history of coups, with 22 coup attempts, 13 of which were successful, since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. The most recent two coups ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra‘s family members, Thaksin in 2006 and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. The normalisation of coups in Thailand has likely created a ‘coup culture’, whereby often military-led takeovers are viewed by many as an acceptable way to solve a political crisis. The likelihood of coups typically increases during times of mass protest or armed conflict, with the military justifying a coup by claiming they are “restoring order”.

Thailand has a significant military advantage over Cambodia, outmatching Cambodia in airpower, firepower, and mobility. Cambodia has historically relied on symbolic and diplomatic efforts during disputes with Thailand. On 14 July, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet declared that mandatory military conscription would be implemented in 2026 in an attempt to bolster its military capabilities.

Continued clashes are highly likely as both sides conduct retaliatory strikes. The accusations of the deliberate targeting of civilian areas from Thailand significantly escalates the risk of miscalculation from both sides. While ASEAN has, so far, been diplomatically impotent regarding the escalations, given the lack of formal mechanisms for conflict dispute and consensus-based decision-making, diplomatic intervention to de-escalate between the two sides is likely.


Travel Risk Advice for Thailand and Cambodia

  • Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stranded in Thailand or Cambodia.
  • Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
  • Ensure you have robust evacuation, communication, and contingency plans in place.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes and civil unrest.
  • Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
  • Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
  • Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts. Unverified claims and disinformation will almost certainly be widely propagated on social media and unvetted sources.

Alert+

Saba Saba Day Protests in Kenya

Road Disruptions Reported Across Kenya as Demonstrations Begin

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 07 JULY 2025

Protests have reignited in Kenya, coinciding with the 7 July anniversary of the historic pro-democracy demonstrations known as Saba Saba Day. While today’s protests are in their early stages, violent incidents have already been reported. On the Nyeri-Nairobi highway in Karatina in Nyeri County, protesters have set tyres alight. Security forces have fired “warning shots” and tear gas to disperse a small group of protesters along Ruaraka Junction on Thika Road in Nairobi.

​Local media have shared images of anti-government demonstrators lighting a fire to block traffic on the B6 road between Embu and Wang’uru in central Kenya’s Kirinyaga County. Police have utilised tear gas to disperse protesters in Kitengela.

Unrest locations in Kenya Saba Saba day 2025

Authorities had anticipated the protests and took pre-emptive measures by setting up roadblocks at several entry points to Nairobi’s Central Business District and blocking roads near the country’s parliament building with razor wire. A large police presence was also reported in Mombasa ahead of the planned demonstrations. Early morning commuters and overnight travellers were stuck at checkpoints, with security forces only letting some vehicles through.

Armed individuals have been accused of attacking protesters, with an armed group attacking the headquarters of a human rights NGO in Nairobi on 6 July. Civil society groups have claimed that they are colluding with security forces. The group reportedly consists of at least 25 individuals on motorbikes armed with clubs and stones. If they target protesters today, it will highly likely escalate the unrest and spark clashes between protesters and security forces.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Anti-government protests have escalated following the death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody on 9 June. Today is the most significant day of unrest since 25 June, the first anniversary of the storming of parliament. Protests will almost certainly escalate throughout the day and into the evening, with demonstrators highly likely to clash with security forces.

​Ahead of today’s protests, Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Interior and National Administration Onesimus Kipchumba Murkomen encouraged security forces to shoot on sight, something that will almost certainly exacerbate the civil unrest.

The 7 July Saba Saba (Seven Seven) Uprising in 1990 saw pro-democracy activists led by opposition figures rally against the rule of President Daniel arap Moi, who had been in power since 1978. The government banned the rally and violently cracked down on demonstrators, with security forces killing at least 20 people, arresting hundreds, and detaining opposition leaders without trial. In December 1991, Moi lifted the ban on opposition parties, enabling multiparty politics. ​

A notable distinction from the Saba Saba Uprising is that, while protests in the 1990s were led by opposition figures, the current demonstrations are a grassroots Gen Z movement led by students without defined leaders or ethnic affiliations.

​The protesters have demanded good governance, greater accountability, and justice for victims of police brutality. The broad demands and lack of clear leadership will highly likely make it more difficult for protesters to pressure President William Ruto, who has weathered previous waves of protests since his election in September 2022, to resign. This, alongside the continued heavy-handedness by security forces, means that protests will likely continue beyond today.

Security checkpoints and protests have blocked major roads across Kenya. Continued travel disruptions around major cities, including Nairobi and Mombasa, are highly likely.


Travel Risk Advice for Kenya

  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Kenya, particularly Nairobi and Mombasa.
  • Avoid the central business district in Nairobi, as well as all major government buildings such as the Kenyan Parliament or the Governor’s Office.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • The overall security situation in Kenya, including Nairobi, is likely to remain severe in the coming days.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.

Alert+

Bulk Carrier Attacked by Houthis in Red Sea

Houthis Strike Bulk Carrier in Major Red Sea Attack

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 07 JULY 2025

On 6 July, the Liberia-flagged Greek-owned dry bulk carrier MAGIC SEAS (IMO: 9736169) was attacked 51NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. The attack was almost certainly conducted by the Yemen-based Houthi Movement (officially ‘Ansar Allah’).

At 1125 UTC, the vessel reported being engaged by multiple small vessels (reportedly eight to nine skiffs), which opened fire on MAGIC SEAS with automatic firearms and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). The vessel’s Armed Security Team (AST) returned fire. At 1401 UTC, the Company Security Officer (CSO) reported that the vessel had been struck by ‘unknown projectiles’, resulting in a fire onboard. Following engagement with the skiffs, the vessel was reportedly attacked by four Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs), two of which impacted the port side of the vessel, and two of which were “intercepted and destroyed by the AST”.

Location of July 6 Houthi Attack on MAGIC SEAS in the Red Sea

An executive affiliated with the shipping company which owns the MAGIC SEAS stated that the vessel was also targeted by missiles, which started fires in the forecastle near the ship’s bow and in its second hold, damaging the vessel’s fuel tanks and hitting the engine room. At 1530 UTC, the CSO reported that the crew were preparing to abandon ship, with all crew having abandoned ship by 1553 UTC. The crew were confirmed as rescued by a passing merchant vessel at 1900 UTC. The vessel remains abandoned and is taking on water.

Hours after the attack, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted multiple airstrikes against Houthi targets in Al Hudaydah, Ras Isa and Salif in Yemen. The IAF also reportedly targeted the GALAXY LEADER (IMO: 9237307), which was hijacked by the Houthis in late 2023.

It is almost certain that the GALAXY LEADER was struck due to long-standing concerns that the vessel has been used as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) asset, with the Israeli military having previously stated that the Houthis had installed a radar system on the vessel to track vessels in the region following multiple strikes on the Houthi’s coastal radar infrastructure.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The incident is the first Houthi attack against a merchant vessel since December 2024. Following the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the US and the Houthis on 6 May, some merchant vessel operators had resumed transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. However, the attack against MAGIC SEAS, almost certainly highlights the continuing threat to merchant vessels, and there is a realistic possibility that the Houthis will follow up the success of the attack with further attacks in the near future. 

The brief Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas between January and March led to the Houthi movement announcing an end to attacks against merchant vessels that are not directly affiliated with Israel. However, the Houthis announced a resumption of the anti-merchant shipping campaign after the end of the ceasefire, with the US and Israel then regularly conducting air strikes against Houthi-controlled Yemen. The Houthis, however, did not attack any merchant shipping during this period, despite sustained threats.

The US involvement in strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer in June led to a member of the Houthi politburo announcing an end to the ceasefire with the US, and it is likely that the attack against MAGIC SEAS is intended as strategic messaging of a renewal of the Houthi anti-merchant shipping campaign.

MAGIC SEAS was transiting between China and Turkey. However, the shipowner, Allseas Marine, has at least three other vessels that have previously made port calls in Israel. In a statement published after the attack, the Houthis claimed that the vessel “meets the Yemeni criteria for targeting ships”.  It is unclear at the time of the writing whether this is due to the vessel owners having conducted business in Israel – given the ambiguity of Houthi statements and the previously indiscriminate nature of Houthi attacks, all merchant vessels transiting near Yemen should consider themselves a potential target. 

The Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) employed during the attack stand out for both the scale and diversity of attack methods. While the Houthis have previously used skiffs during attacks, the number used during this attack is particularly large. It is highly likely that the ISR capabilities of the Houthis have been significantly degraded following the withdrawal of Iranian assets from the region and US-Israeli strikes. The Houthis likely used the large group of skiffs to enable the targeting of the vessel with other weapon systems such as USVs and missiles. It is almost certain, given the attack methods, that the Houthis intended to sink the vessel.


Travel Risk Advice

  • Vessel operators transiting the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden should consider the use of an AST. ASTs should be positioned to cover all avenues of approach.
  • Vessel operators should conduct thorough pre-voyage risk assessments.
  • Vessels should have well-rehearsed plans and protocols for emergency response to security incidents.
  • Vessel operators should enhance visual and radar watch 24/7 from the southern Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden. Effective and properly equipped lookouts should be stationed at all times.
  • Vessels operating in the region should consider suspending broadcasting on AIS.
  • Vessels should limit transits to daylight hours where possible.
  • Vessels should limit other electronic signatures and minimise non-essential transmissions to limit detection, identification and targeting.
  • Vessel operators should consider alternative routes due to the threat of renewed Houthi operations targeting merchant vessels. All vessels or shipping companies with clear links to Israel should consider rerouting.
  • Vessels should maintain contact with authorities like the UKMTO and immediately report on any suspicious activity.
  • For further counter-measures, vessel operators should consult authoritative sources such as the BMP Maritime Security guide.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.

Opinion

Travel Risk in 2025: It’s Getting Personal

Travel risk in 2025

How the next generation of travel risk management is evolving to meet individual needs

Robert Aldous
Chief Customer Officer

Cast your minds back to a time when business‑travel advice was little more than a colour‑coded map and a tidy list of “dos and don’ts.” Those days are gone.

The world is moving again – faster than before the pandemic – and today’s travellers are not anonymous employees headed to a pin on a map. They are individuals with intersecting identities, unique expectations, and very real vulnerabilities.

This shift demands that we change the fundamental question. Outside of extreme situations, no longer do we ask, “Is Mexico City safe to travel to?” Instead, we ask, “How will this traveller experience Mexico City, given their medical history, cultural background, or any number of personal factors?”

By moving from place‑centric thinking to a people‑first mindset, risk assessments evolve into living profiles that adapt in real time based off the profile. Guidance becomes dynamic, arriving exactly when it matters, whilst privacy is elevated from a compliance tick‑box to a moral imperative.

Consider what happens when we enrich a traveller’s profile – voluntarily, and always under their control – with up-to-date profile attributes, from language fluency to mobility constraints. A powerful risk-intelligence engine can then align raw, real-time data with personal relevance, transforming generic alerts into guidance that feels timely, empathetic, and, above all, useful. Yet none of this works unless trust sits at the core.

A privacy‑first architecture minimises data collection, encrypts what is stored, and gives the traveller full authority over when and how their information is activated. Safeguarding identity traits must become as routine as safeguarding a passport number.

What does this look like on the ground? Let’s think like the people we want to support. Opening an app and seeing a narrative that speaks to you as an individual, perhaps etiquette during Ramadan for a first-time traveller in the Gulf, or a heads‑up on local insulin availability for someone managing diabetes. Practical options could also appear, like the choice to attend a meeting remotely, an alternate routing through a lower‑threat transit hub, or the contact details of a vetted local guide who speaks your native language, or security-recommended restaurants post-meeting, whilst you wait during a delay? No one is forced to reveal private details, but those who opt in unlock an unprecedented layer of protection and confidence.

As we look ahead, this shift towards personalised, real-time support doesn’t just reflect a technological evolution – it aligns with the rising expectations of the next generation of business travellers. Millennials and Gen Z have already shaped consumer experiences with their demand for relevance, autonomy, and digital convenience. But it’s the emerging cohort of professionals – those coming into leadership in the next five to ten years – who will redefine what good looks like in corporate travel.

They will expect services that anticipate their needs before they arise. For them, hyper-personalised travel risk management won’t be a premium feature; it will be an expected part of the value proposition. This generation won’t just value safety – they’ll expect it to be smart, contextual, and adaptive to their lifestyles, work styles, and identities. The leap from personalisation as a marketing tactic to personalisation as a duty of care will become the new benchmark for progressive employers and security providers alike.

The partnership between human insight and machine intelligence

Where is the frontier? It lies in the partnership between human and machine. Predictive analytics already correlate flight delays, social‑media sentiment, and healthcare capacity in near real time. Algorithms will not be replacing aspects of human judgment, but they can augment our insight, handing us the right information at precisely the right moment. Together, they form a co‑pilot (no pun intended) model in which machines crunch vast, fast‑moving data and humans deliver context, empathy, and final judgment.

Our future conversations around travel or crisis, especially when aiming to engage teams across our businesses in a meaningful way, need to be one that centres people, respects their privacy, and empowers everyone to explore the world on equal footing.


Meet Rob to discuss your risk approach

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Alert+

Nationwide Protests in Kenya

Alert plus solace gloabl

Nationwide Protests in Kenya

Intelligence cut off: 15:00 BST 25 JUNE 2025

Demonstrations and clashes with security forces broke out on 25 June in multiple cities in Kenya. The protests, which initially began in Nairobi, have now expanded to other cities including Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru and Nyahururu. According to Citizen TV, protests are also taking place in Eldoret, Kakamega, Narok, Busia, Makueni, Nyeri, Laikipia, Nyandarua, Machakos, Homa Bay, and Kirinyaga. Demonstrations are reportedly taking place in at least 20 of the country’s 47 counties. While precise numbers are unconfirmed, thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets.

In Nairobi, large crowds have occupied parts of the Thika Road highway, and protesters have blocked streets in the Zimmerman area. Demonstrators are reportedly heading towards the city centre, highly likely aiming to reach the parliament. Security forces have deployed tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds, particularly in the central business district and outside the city hall. One protester in the capital city was reported to be injured after being struck on the head by a tear gas canister and at least eight people have been shot, according to local news.

Reports from Matuu in Machakos County and Molo in Nakuru County indicate that police have opened fire on protesters, resulting in at least two deaths and several injuries in both locations. Eyewitnesses in Matuu claim that the violence occurred when protesters attempted to enter a police station.

The unrest has led to significant disruptions. Kenya Railways announced the suspension of commuter trains in Nairobi due to the ongoing protests. Additionally, the Kenyan government has taken steps to control the flow of information, with the Communications Authority ordering TV and radio stations to cease live broadcasts of the demonstrations.

Local NTV and KTN stations report that security forces raided their transmission centres and turned off their signals. NetBlocks has reported disruptions to the Telegram messaging service across Kenya, following a government ban on media platforms covering the protests live. Multi-media organisation The Standard Group has declared that it will continue to broadcast despite the attempted ‘news blackout’.

Opposition leaders Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa have joined demonstrators in Nairobi, laying wreaths outside parliament in honour of those killed during demonstrations last year which killed an assessed 60 people. Former Chief Justice David Maraga is also taking part in the protests. They have called on police to exercise restraint and have condemned police brutality.


SITUATION ANALYSIS

Kenya Protest Unrest Escalates Amid Police Brutality and Travel Risk Concerns

Sporadic protests have been ongoing in Kenya since 9 June, after blogger Albert Ojwang died in police custody the previous day after being arrested for the alleged defamation of the Deputy Inspector General of Police.  As protests escalated, the Kenyan National Police also released a statement confirming that a woman miscarried whilst in police custody at Rwanyambo police station in Nyandarua County. On 12 June, the government announced a new finance bill, the trigger for the 2024 protests, although the 2025 iteration was far more conservative.

Protests will likely continue to escalate. On 17 June, the most violent day of unrest before today, a large group of unidentified individuals on motorcycles arrived in the Central Business District in Nairobi armed with makeshift weapons, including whips and clubs, and Kenyan police forces shot a bystander who had been selling face masks with an anti-riot shotgun at point-blank range in the head. There is a realistic possibility that the allegedly pro-government individuals could once again target protesters, which would almost certainly inflame tensions.

These protests constitute the most significant demonstrations since the June-August 2024 protests triggered by the government finance bill. The 2024 protests saw a harsh response from security forces, who were accused of abducting, torturing, and killing civilians believed to be leaders of anti-government protests. At least 60 protesters were killed in total.

The continued perceived harsh repression of demonstrations by security forces, as well as the harming of civilians in custody, has significantly exacerbated tensions, and further footage of security forces using excessive force will almost certainly contribute to demonstrations spreading further.

Today’s date, 25 June, marks the first anniversary of the 2024 storming of parliament. Protesters will likely target the parliament again due to its symbolic value, although there is a heavy security presence around the building, and it has been barricaded with razor wire to prevent protesters from entering.

Despite the introduction of a new finance bill being the trigger for the 2024 protests, it is likely the least contributing factor in this wave of demonstrations. The 2024 finance bill aimed to raise 346 billion Kenyan shillings to pay off the country’s high debt by massively increasing taxes on consumers, such as value-added tax (VAT). Amidst a rising cost of living and inflation, this would have added significant economic pressure on ordinary Kenyans, triggering widespread youth-led protests.

The current wave of unrest, on the other hand, is largely directed towards police brutality, with protesters demanding justice and the resignation of a senior officer they blame for the death of Ojwang, likely suggesting that sustained police brutality and a lack of accountability will continue to sustain violent unrest.

The presence of prominent opposition figures will almost certainly add pressure on President William Ruto, who has seen multiple bouts of unrest since attaining power in 2022. There is a realistic possibility that protests will continue to escalate until Ruto steps down.

Fig. 1: Locations of reported protests in Kenya as of 25 June, 14:45 GMT. Source: Factal
Fig. 2: Locations of reported protests in Nairobi as of 25 June, 14:45 GMT. Source: Factal

Intelligence Team’s Advice: Guidance During Protests

  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Kenya, particularly Nairobi, Mombasa, and Matuu. 
  • Avoid the central business district in Nairobi, particularly around Kenyatta Avenue, Haile Selassie Avenue, City Hall, and any other wide roads conducive to the staging of protests, as well as all major government buildings such as the Kenyan Parliament or the Governor’s Office.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot. 
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation. 
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication. 
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any losses in electricity. 
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place. 
  • The overall security situation in Kenya, including Nairobi, is likely to remain severe in the coming days. 
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict. 

Live Webinar

Israel Iran Conflict: High-Priority Briefing

Intelligence team

Live Webinar: Israel-Iran Conflict High-Priority Briefing

Strategic Intelligence for Global Security & Risk Leaders

As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, with confirmed US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the risk of regional escalation is rapidly increasing. For organisations with global operations, personnel in affected areas, or exposure to Middle East supply chains, access to trusted, real-time insight is essential.

Last Thursday, Solace Global’s intelligence team delivered a high-priority briefing to clients, providing clarity on the evolving security landscape. The session explored Israel’s strategic intent, Iran’s military response, and the rising likelihood of further US involvement.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Delivered by Head of Intelligence Mark Overington and Chief Customer Officer Robert Aldous, the session highlighted:

  • Israel’s objective to degrade Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities
  • Tactical airstrikes on high-value targets, including infrastructure and security networks
  • Iran’s ongoing retaliatory missile attacks and use of regional proxy forces
  • Potential risks to international shipping, airspace, and supply chain continuity
  • The operational outlook for US assets in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf states
Mark Overington - Solace Global Risk

Mark Overington

Head of Intelligence

Robert Aldous Solace Global

Robert Aldous

Chief Customer Officer


LIVE WEBINAR

Gain Access to Next Israel-Iran Security Briefing

On June 21, at approx. 2300 GMT, the US Air Force & Navy carried out attacks at three Iranian Nuclear sites. The attack has been confirmed by US President Donald Trump following days of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran.

Solace Global clients will receive these alerts and extended assessment through Solace Secure and through the GIS Subscription. We are advising clients on all potential scenarios, ensuring businesses are prioritising their people, assets and their Operational Resilience.

Next Israel-Iran Conflict Security Briefing: Thursday 26th June 2025

Solace Global will host a follow-up briefing this Thursday, offering updated analysis and forward-looking scenarios to inform your planning.

To access this and future sessions, sign up to our intelligence subscription service


Alert+

Israeli Airstrikes Target Iranian Nuclear Program

Alert plus solace gloabl

Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Sites in Major Attack

Intelligence cut off: 10:00 BST 13 JUNE 2025

At approximately 03:30 local time on 13 June, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted a series of coordinated airstrikes targeting multiple locations and senior figures across Iran associated with Iran’s nuclear program as part of  ‘Operation Rising Lion’.

Targets included the Natanz Enrichment Complex; nuclear-related facilities in Qom, Markazi, Kermanshah, and Hamadan; and multiple locations in Tehran. Israeli sources have also claimed to have completed a ‘broad strike’ on Iranian air defence systems in western Iran, resulting in the destruction of dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers (SAMs).

Iranian state media claim the strikes resulted in dozens of fatalities and casualties. Among those reportedly killed are Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Iranian Armed Forces General Staff, and senior nuclear scientists Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoun Abbasi.

The strikes form part of a broader Israeli strategy aimed at dismantling the IRGC leadership and disrupting Iran’s nuclear programme. The attack follows days of escalating tensions, fuelled by stalled US-Iran negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

Israel has declared a state of emergency, closed its airspace, suspended operations at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) indefinitely, and  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Israeli citizens that they may have to spend extended periods within air raid shelters. Public offices and educational institutions across the country will remain closed until at least 20:00 local time on 14 June. Emergency services have been placed on high alert, and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have bolstered their presence in the Occupied West Bank

Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has vowed that Israel will face ‘severe punishment’ for the strikes on its nuclear program. On 13 June, Iran launched 100 uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) in response to the Israeli strikes.

Airspace restrictions have been imposed across Iraq, and flight operations at all Iraqi airports have been suspended as a precautionary measure. Multiple reports indicate that explosions have occurred in various locations across Iraq. Although the nature and cause of these incidents remain unconfirmed at this stage, uncorroborated reports suggest facilities associated with Iranian proxy forces have been targeted.

Jordan has closed its airspace and has stated that it will not tolerate violations of its airspace. Air raid sirens have been activated in the capital, Amman, and Jordanian state media has announced that the Jordanian Armed Forces have intercepted drones that have entered its airspace. Jordanian officials have warned citizens not to gather in the street due to the threat of falling debris from intercepted aerial threats.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement affirming that Israel “took unilateral action against Iran” in what Israel has described as a necessary act of self-defence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterised the pre-emptive strikes as a military operation aimed at “rolling back the Iranian threat to Israel’s survival.”

Despite repeated denials from senior US officials regarding any direct involvement in the strikes, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has accused the United States of assisting in the operation. IRGC officials have vowed a “strong response from Iranian forces” against Israel and US forces in the region.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced via social media platform X, that they are “in contact with Iranian authorities regarding radiation levels” that may increase as a result of the attack.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The most immediate threat posed by the escalation is of Iranian retaliation strikes against Israel. Reports indicate that the first wave of Iranian UAVs was completely intercepted by Israel or regional forces. However, the first wave was likely an initial response and will almost certainly be followed by larger waves of layered attacks consisting of UAVs and ballistic missiles conducted by Iranian conventional forces.

Israeli attempts to degrade Iranian air defence likely indicate that further Israeli strikes on Iran are impending, which will almost certainly provoke further Iranian retaliation. Given the strategic importance of Iran’s nuclear program, it is likely that future Iranian attacks will be larger than those observed in April and October 2024.

Iranian proxy forces in the region will highly likely form part of Iran’s retaliation against Israel. The Houthi Movement in Yemen will likely conduct missile and drone attacks targeting southern and central Israel. Iranian proxies in Iraq will likely launch drones at Israel. Despite much of its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon having been dismantled, Hezbollah still maintains a credible arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones, and is likely to conduct attacks primarily against northern Israel.

Whilst Israeli air defence is comprehensive and highly capable, previous Iranian strikes and proxy attacks have managed to successfully penetrate Israel’s defences. Furthermore, there is a high threat from falling debris caused by successful interceptions across Israel, Jordan and Iraq. The resumption of hostilities will almost certainly result in significant airspace closures, and air travel disruption will continue across the region, complicating evacuation.

So far, the US Trump administration has sought to distance itself from the Israeli operation. However, Iran’s foreign ministry has stated that the US will also be responsible for the “dangerous consequences” of Israel’s “adventurism”, and there are indications from Iranian television broadcasts that Iran will now not participate in the scheduled negotiations with the US on 15 June.

The most likely US targets to be attacked are the US military bases in Iraq and Syria. Moreover, it is likely that the Iraq-based Iranian proxies, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMFs), will engage in rocket attacks against these US bases. Such attacks would highly likely lead to retaliation from the US, threatening to further escalate the conflict.

Should Hezbollah resume direct conflict with Israel, this would almost certainly be met with Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, particularly in the Dahieh suburbs of southern Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and south of the Litani River.

As the Royal Jordanian Air Force has already engaged in interceptions of Iranian aerial threats over Jordan’s airspace, this poses an immediate threat of debris in Jordan. Furthermore, Jordanian involvement has previously led to civil unrest in Amman, and this will likely occur again, particularly in the vicinity of the Israeli and US embassies.

It is unlikely but possible that retaliation from Tehran and its proxies will develop to involve strikes against US military bases in the Gulf states, particularly Kuwait and Bahrain, but also the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Gulf state leaders have made distinct efforts to condemn the Israeli strikes, with Iranian officials having previously threatened attacks against US interests across the region in the event of escalation.

For the Gulf states, the highest impact potential outcome is the development of the conflict into a protracted regional conflict involving the US, characterised by the targeting of energy facilities across the region. Strikes against Gulf oil facilities are a key capability Iran can deploy against US interests in the region and threaten to disrupt the global economy.


Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for Los Angeles, USA

  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Israel, Iran, the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), Jordan, and Iraq.
  • Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stranded in Israel, Iran, OPT, Jordan, or Iraq.
  • Travellers in Israel should familiarise themselves with the nearest air raid shelter and ensure that they have downloaded applications that provide early warning of incoming threats, such as Home Front Command or Red Alert.
  • Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
  • Ensure you have robust evacuation, communication, and contingency plans in place.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes, terrorist attacks, and civil unrest.
  • Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
  • Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
  • Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts. Unverified claims and disinformation will almost certainly be widely propagated on social media and unvetted sources.

Alert+

Plane Crash in Ahmedabad, India

Alert plus solace gloabl

Air India flight AL171 crashed during take-off in Ahmedabad

Intelligence cut off: 11:15 BST 12 June 2025

On 12 June, Air India flight AI171 crashed during take-off from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport (AMD) in Ahmedabad in India’s Gujarat province. The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner had a capacity of 256 seats onboard and was bound for London Gatwick Airport (LGW). 242 people are believed to be onboard, including the two pilots and 10 cabin crew staff. According to reports, there were 169 Indian nationals, 53 Britons, seven Portuguese, and one Canadian on board.

The plane departed at 13:38 local time (08:08 UTC), and the signal was lost less than a minute after take-off, while the plane was 625 feet (190 metres) high. The plane was due to land at 18:25 local time (17:25 UTC). According to social media footage, the plane crashed outside the airport perimeter in a residential area near the Civil Hospital Ahmedabad, southwest of the airport. The plane, which had a fuel load of 126,000 litres, caught fire after crashing and black smoke was seen rising from the crash site. While casualty figures are currently unclear, there appear to be some survivors.

Ahmedabad airport map

India’s aviation minister has stated that rescue teams have been mobilised. The Chief Minister of Gujarat has stated that officials have been instructed to carry out ‘immediate rescue and relief operations’ and to make arrangements on a ‘war footing’. A green corridor for injured passengers has been arranged to ensure priority at the hospital. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has been sent from Delhi to investigate the cause of the incident.

While the cause of the crash is unclear, the loss of signal shortly before the crash indicates a critical systems failure is likely. There was high visibility of six kilometres, and there were light surface winds, so a weather-induced accident is unlikely. An investigation into the cause of the incident will almost certainly be quickly carried out by the DGCA and Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB), who will attempt to recover the black boxes (flight data and cockpit voice recorders) to determine the nature of the crash.

The last fatal plane crash in India occurred at Kozhikode International Airport (CCJ) in 2020, where the plane skidded off the runway and crashed into the ground. 21 people were killed and over 100 were injured.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely declare a day of national mourning over the victims of the crash as casualty figures become clear. If the cause of the crash is deemed to be due to poor maintenance, regulatory failures, or negligence, demonstrations are likely to occur outside the airport or outside government buildings.

There will almost certainly be significant flight disruptions over the coming hours. Flight tracking sources indicate that incoming domestic flights have been diverted back to their airports of origin, and departure flights have been cancelled.


INTELLIGENCE TEAM’S GUIDANCE

Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines

•Closely monitor local news reports, government alerts, and the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates. There is a high likelihood of disinformation being published regarding the nature of the plane crash.

•Follow Air India’s X page found here for the latest information regarding the incident.

•Expect significant transport disruptions near the airport and crash site. Where possible, use alternative routes.

•Confirm all flights with your airline if scheduled to depart from or arrive at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport.

•If stranded or delayed, contact your airline’s 24/7 helpline to arrange alternative flights.

•If staying near the airport or crash site, expect transit delays due to crash-related roadblocks. Consider moving hotels to somewhere away from the airport.

•Expect reduced capacity for emergency services in the Ahmedabad area over the coming hours.


Alert+

Anti-ICE Protests in the United States

Alert plus solace gloabl

Anti-ICE Protests Intensify Across US Cities

Intelligence cut off: 12:30 BST 10 JUNE 2025

As of 10 June, demonstrations against the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency entered their fourth consecutive day in Los Angeles. The unrest began on 6 June, triggered by ICE raids in Los Angeles that resulted in the arrest of 118 people.

While Los Angeles has seen the most severe unrest so far, the protests have spread to multiple US cities, including Santa Ana, San Francisco, Austin, New York, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Chicago, Washington D.C., and Seattle.

Protest Activity and Key Locations in Los Angeles, United States June 2025

In Los Angeles, the protests have seen the most violence in the Downtown area, which authorities have declared an “unlawful assembly” area. The unrest has resulted in vandalism, the erection of barricades, reports of looting, and the throwing of projectiles, including Molotov cocktails, at law enforcement. Furthermore, both local law enforcement and federal forces have deployed tear gas, rubber bullets, stun grenades, pepper spray and pepper balls, and used mounted units as part of crowd control operations.

The worst-impacted locations in Los Angeles include the area around the Metropolitan Detention Center, with demonstrators blocking the nearby Highway 101 and setting fire to Waymo driverless taxis; the Los Angeles Federal Building; the Fashion District; Paramount; and Compton.

On 7 June, US President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of 2,000 National Guard troops to the Los Angeles area, which has since been doubled to 4,000. 700 US Marines have been additionally activated for potential deployment; however, they are unable to directly participate in civilian policing unless the Insurrection Act is invoked, which the Trump administration has not done as of the time of writing.

The deployment of the National Guard and Marines has been met with staunch opposition by the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, with the National Guard deployment being the first without a governor’s approval since 1965.

In the days following the initial outbreak of unrest in Los Angeles, “solidarity” protests broke out in multiple other US cities. Of these, the most significant protests took place in San Francisco, where close to 150 people were arrested following violent clashes near a downtown ICE office; Santa Ana, where tear gas and flashbangs were used against protesters outside the Santa Ana Federal Building; and New York, where 24 protesters were arrested at Trump Tower.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The civil unrest has been characterised by the relatively small size of demonstrations, compared to, for example, the Black Lives Matter protests. However, despite the low attendance, the level of disruption has been pronounced, highly likely due to a combination of both the propensity for the attendees to conduct direct action and due to the forceful response by authorities.

It is highly likely that protests will continue in the following days, given the so far established cycle of escalation. ICE raids were the initial primary trigger for the unrest, with the protests in Paramount, for example, being triggered by rumours of an ICE raid at a Home Depot. It is almost certain that further ICE raids will continue to act as a trigger for localised demonstrations in major US cities, with protesters attempting to stop the mass detentions through direct action.

As the protests progressed, however, additional triggers for escalation materialised. First, the arrest and hospitalisation of David Huerta, the President of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), acted as a trigger for protests within the organised labour movement, with union chapters coordinating demonstrations.

Second, the deployment of the National Guard and then the proposed deployment of active-duty US Marines have catalysed so-called “solidarity” protests in other US cities.

A key trigger for further escalation would be the unlikely but possible scenario of the Trump administration invoking the Insurrection Act, which would allow the deployment of the armed forces for law-enforcement activities.

The most likely hotspots for demonstrations (and associated violent clashes with authorities) continue to be federal facilities, particularly ICE offices and federal detention centres, and areas where ICE raids are being conducted (with social media being a key means of enabling this).

There is a high risk of collateral violence to bystanders at these protests, given the levels of violence thus far, and they should be avoided as far as possible. Furthermore, the unrest has resulted in significant transport disruptions, with major freeway closures such as the 101 Freeway being closed in Los Angeles.


Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for Los Angeles, USA

  • Avoid all protest areas in Los Angeles, particularly areas around the Metropolitan Detention Centre, the Fashion District, Compton, and Paramount.
  • Closely monitor local news reports, government alerts, and the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the demonstrations.
  • Follow the Los Angeles Police Department’s X page found here for the latest information regarding protest areas and associated traffic disruptions.
  • Where possible, use alternative routes to steer clear of protest locations and avoid public transport.
  • If in the vicinity of a protest, try to leave if it is safe to do so. Always abide by authority and police directions.
  • If you are in a crowd and unable to leave, take precautions to minimise the risk of a crowd crush. These include staying upright, moving away from all hard barriers, going with and not against the crowd, and holding your arms at chest level in a boxer-like stance to relieve pressure.
  • Ensure that you always carry personal identification documents or copies.​​
  • Ensure knowledge of important contact numbers. These should include at least the local emergency number(s) and contacts for your local embassy or consulate.
  • Expect a heightened security presence to continue beyond 10 June. This will likely result in protracted transport disruptions.

Travel Risk Advisory

NATO Summit 2025

NATO Summit 2025 Travel Risk Advisory Solace Global

Travel Advice and Risk Mitigation Measures for the NATO Summit

Executive Summary

  • The NATO Summit will take place in The Hague on 25–26 June 2025, attracting around 8,500 attendees, including heads of state, ministers, and international delegates.
  • Heightened security and large-scale deployments will significantly affect daily life across the Randstad region from 22 to 27 June.
  • Extensive airspace restrictions and runway closures at Schiphol Airport will disrupt commercial flights, with up to 30% reduction in capacity.
  • Road closures on key routes around The Hague, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam will lead to severe congestion and travel delays.
  • Demonstrations and counter-events are expected, with an increased risk of disruption near designated protest zones.
  • There is an elevated cyber threat environment, with risks including disinformation, surveillance, and network intrusions.
  • The Netherlands remains at a “substantial” terrorism threat level; lone actor attacks are more likely than coordinated group actions.
  • Business and government travellers should adopt robust security measures and avoid affected areas unless operationally required. Learn more about Executive Protection and Secure Journey Management.

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 25 and 26 June 2025, the annual NATO Summit is set to take place in The Hague, Netherlands, for the first time since the founding of NATO in 1949. The event is set to host approximately 8,500 visitors, consisting of approximately 45 heads of state, 45 foreign ministers, 45 defence ministers, 6,000 delegates, 2,000 journalists, and 800 guests.

The summit is occurring within the context of the Trump administration consistently distancing itself from NATO, major developments in the war in Ukraine, and European NATO leaders increasingly discussing the necessity for capable European defence and deterrence against Russia that is independent from US support. While an official agenda has not been published, the summit will almost certainly address defence funding and membership status for its member states, in addition to boosting NATO defence capabilities.

The summit will almost certainly trigger significant travel disruptions and heightened security threats in the Randstad area from 22 to 27 June.

Numerous security measures will be implemented during the summit. 27,000 police officers, approximately half of the Dutch National Police force, are set to be deployed across the two days, supported by 5,000 armed forces personnel and special forces teams on 24-hour standby.

Patriot air defence systems and counter-drone installations will reportedly be used to defend the summit from aerial threats. F-35 fighter jets and Apache patrols will also occur over the city and along the coast. An air exclusion zone will operate over a 22-kilometre stretch of coast between the Hook of Holland and Noordwyk.

Security will be prioritised at the World Forum (where the summit will be taking place), Huis ten Bosch (where the leaders will dine), and the Grand Hotel Huis ter Duin (where President Donald Trump will likely reside).

TRAVEL RISKS

Significant travel disruptions should be expected during the week of the NATO Summit. The World Forum is approximately 30 minutes from two of the Netherlands’ largest airports, Amsterdam Schiphol Airport (AMS) and Rotterdam The Hague Airport (RTM).

Significant airport disruptions are almost certain, particularly at Schiphol, where the Polderbaan Runway will be closed to air traffic between 21 and 27 June. With the Buitenveldertbaan Runway currently under maintenance, commercial air traffic will be reduced by between 25 and 30 per cent during this period, with an estimated 100,000 passengers likely to face cancellations or rescheduling. This may increase traffic at The Hague airport as flights reroute.

Transport disruptions will also affect road travel. Authorities are set to close roads to transport world leaders on the A4, A5, A44, N44, and N440 from 22 to 27 June, which will almost certainly disrupt travel between Amsterdam, The Hague, and Rotterdam. The N434 will also be closed in the afternoon and evening of 25 June. Local and regional roads around the Hague, Wassenaar, Katwijk, Noordwijk, Haarlemmermeer, Leiden, and Rotterdam will also be closed, making several areas difficult to reach. Large-scale diversion routes have been set up.

The most congested periods will highly likely be late 23 June, early 24 June, and late 25 June. Triple the normal traffic volumes are to be expected at least 450 kilometres around the periphery of the World Forum. In anticipation of major traffic disruptions, the Dutch government have warned people to avoid the central Randstad region between 23 and 26 June, advising residents to work from home as much as possible and to use public transport if travel is necessary. Public transport will likely be overcrowded as people avoid driving disruptions and follow government advice, likely leading to an increase in petty crime.

Are protests expected during the NATO Summit in the Netherlands?

There will almost certainly be civil unrest in the days around the event. An international protest has already been organised for 22 June at Koekamp near the Hague Central Station by the Dutch Counter Summit Coalition for Peace and Justice. A “Counter Summit” conference has been scheduled for 21 to 22 June, which may draw additional protesters to The Hague.

Authorities have designated specific areas for demonstrations, with small-scale protests allowed around the World Forum, and larger-scale protests limited to the Malieveld. While the demonstrations will likely be peaceful, the high levels of security during the summit raise the possibility of clashes between protesters and security forces.

There will likely be a heightened risk of cyberattacks and espionage, perpetrated mostly by Russia. Typical hybrid threats from Russia, in its campaign to gain a competitive advantage over its Western adversaries, include disinformation campaigns, sabotage, and cyberattacks.

Disinformation, particularly on social media platforms like X, will likely be used to sow confusion and undermine confidence in authorities; fake security, transportation, or health and safety alerts online are a potential method. Espionage could additionally target business travellers as hostile actors attempt to access confidential and proprietary information. Public Wi-Fi networks are a likely target, with perpetrators aiming to steal personal data or credentials.

Cyberattacks and sabotage targeting essential services such as transport infrastructure pose another threat, with perpetrators incentivised to cause disruptions to reduce the summit’s credibility.

There is an increased threat of terrorism, resulting from the high visibility of the event. Before the event was announced, the Netherlands’ National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) placed the country at a threat level four, indicating a “substantial” risk of terrorist attack.

A recent attack took place on 27 March 2025, where a mass stabbing occurred near Dam Square, injuring five individuals. The perpetrator was a Ukrainian citizen from Donetsk; the motive is still unclear, but he has been charged with attempted murder with terrorist intent.

While the high levels of security likely lower the risk of coordinated attacks by violent extremist organisations (VEOs), lone actor attacks are more difficult to mitigate against and predict for intelligence agencies. Lone actors typically use unsophisticated opportunistic methods, including vehicle ramming, knife attacks, and arson.


MITIGATION

Travel Advice and Risk Mitigation Measures for the NATO Summit in The Hague

  • Plan for significant travel disruptions. Check with your airline to confirm if your flight is still operating as scheduled.
  • Adhere to instructions issued by authorities. Carry valid identification at all times.
  • Unless specifically travelling to the event, avoid travelling near the World Forum, Huis ten Bosch, or Grand Hotel Huis ter Duin.
  • Avoid the Diplomatic Zone around the Peace Palace, International Court of Justice, and embassies, which may be heavily restricted.
  • Avoid areas where demonstrations are taking place.
  • Avoid overt displays of wealth and be mindful of pickpockets, particularly in large crowds and on public transportation.
  • Stay up to date with local news outlets. The Municipality of The Hague (Gemeente Den Haag) website typically publishes advisories regarding road closures and security perimeters.
  • Business travellers in sensitive industries should assume that they are being targeted by espionage and implement the appropriate security protocols and countermeasures. These include avoiding public Wi-Fi networks; using multi-factor authentication, VPNs and loaner devices; and establishing clear red lines for what information they are willing to share and bring in-country. Learn more →

Alert+

Car Ramming Incident in Liverpool

Alert plus solace gloabl

Vehicle Rams Crowd in Central Liverpool After Premier League Victory Parade

Intelligence cut off: 10:45 BST 27 MAY 2025

At approximately 18:00 local time on 26 May, a vehicle drove into a crowd of football supporters in Water Street, central Liverpool. The incident occurred as supporters were celebrating Liverpool’s victory in this year’s Premier League, with a parade in the city centre having just concluded when the incident happened. Videos taken at the location show a dark van repeatedly driving into the crowd of supporters before coming to a stop.

The responding police stated they had made an arrest in connection with the incident. A 53-year-old individual from the local area is currently alleged to have been responsible for driving the vehicle into the crowd. As of the time of writing, authorities have confirmed that at least 47 people have been injured, 27 of whom were transported to nearby hospitals.

Liverpool Car Ramming Incident Location Map

Police stated that they are not currently treating the incident as a terror-related act. They moreover stated that they consider it an “isolated incident” and are not looking for further suspects.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Eyewitness accounts and video footage captured in the immediate prelude to the incident indicate that the car ramming likely occurred after an altercation erupted between the suspect, who had entered the newly reopened street, and supporters who had surrounded his vehicle. The information available thus far likely indicates a lack of premeditation or terror-related motive for the attack.

In the aftermath of the attack, there have been several reported cases of disinformation being spread online regarding the perpetrator’s identity and motive for the attack. These are almost certainly meant to provoke retaliatory violence against minority communities in the UK and mirror a phenomenon already observed in the immediate aftermath of the stabbing attack in Southport in July 2024.

As of 27 May, UK authorities have taken several steps to combat the spread of misinformation, and a decrease in the engagement of disinformation narratives on select social networks has been observed. Nevertheless, a remote possibility of “retaliatory” attacks following the incident remains extant.


Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for Liverpool, UK

  • In Liverpool, adhere to all safety directives, avoid all gatherings and the area of Water Street, and plan for alternative routes.
  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • Monitor Merseytravel for updates on public transport services and road closures in Liverpool.
  • If you are caught in the vicinity of an attack, follow RUN – HIDE – TELL.
  • If caught in the vicinity of an attack, seek immediate hard cover and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • Ensure that you always carry personal identification documents or copies.​​
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any power outage.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.
  • The emergency number in the United Kingdom is 999.

Alert+

Nakba Day Protests 2025

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What is Nakba Day and Why is it Significant?

Intelligence cut-off: 17:00 GMT 14 May 2025

The 77th anniversary of the Nakba falls on 15 May 2025. “Nakba” is an Arabic term that translates to “catastrophe” and is used to describe the mass-displacement of Palestinians that resulted from the 1947-49 war, affecting approximately 750,000 individuals. The Nakba is an important event in shaping Palestinian identity and has a significant influence on Palestinian diaspora politics.

Where Did the Largest Nakba Day Protests Occur in 2024?

The 2024 Nakba Day protests were the most extensive to occur in connection with the commemoration. Several gatherings that were attended by tens of thousands of attendees were recorded in several cities, with hotspots concentrated in Western Europe and in large North American urban centres. On 18 May 2024, protests in London were attended by an estimated 250,000 people, with smaller gatherings in Manchester, Leeds, Cardiff, and Edinburgh among other cities. Large-scale protests were likewise recorded in Barcelona, Madrid, Milan, Bologna, Berlin, Paris, Marseille, Toulouse and other large European urban centres.

In North America, Nakba Day coincided with several large-scale protests, with major demonstrations occurring in cities including New York City, Toronto, Washington, D.C., Miami, Cleveland, and Portland.

Why Are Universities Central to These Demonstrations?

In both Europe and North America, university-based groups have been particularly active in spearheading the unrest, making campuses hotspots of demonstrations. Student groups at, among others, Columbia University in New York, Sorbonne and Sciences Po, in Paris, and Amsterdam University staged large-scale demonstrations and direct action in connection with pro-Palestine unrest.

Nakba Day Protests across the Middle East in 2024

Nakba Day protests are also common in the Middle East, due to the commemoration’s lasting political importance.  In 2024, particularly notable demonstrations occurred in Beirut, Tunis, Amman, and Rabat. In Israel, protests were concentrated in Tel Aviv, with the local Tel Aviv University being a focal point for the demonstrations.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has almost certainly contributed to driving larger Nakba Day protests in countries and regions that have not previously been as impacted by pro-Palestinian protests as Western Europe, the Middle East, and North America. In the Asia-Pacific region, for instance, protests were held in cities like Sydney and Melbourne in Australia, and Osaka and Tokyo, Japan.

Violent Incidents during Protests

During the 2024 Nakba Day protests, episodes of violence between protesters and responding security forces were recorded at some locations. For instance, protests in Brooklyn, New York, resulted in around 40 arrests as violent clashes broke out between police and protesters. In Berlin, protests were halted due to the deployment of fireworks, posing a threat to bystanders. In London, local police arrested several people over violent chants and slogans.

Full Report with analysis and travel risk advice included in Global Intelligence Subscription



Alert+

India Launches Airstrikes on Pakistan

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India Conducts Airstrikes in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir After Pahalgam Terror Attack

Intelligence cut off: 10:00 BST 07 MAY 2025

At approximately 00:30 local time on 7 May, the Indian Air Force (IAF) conducted airstrikes against nine different locations in both Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan.

Among the areas targeted are Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Bagh in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and Sialkot, Sarjal/Tehra Kalan, Muridke, and Bahawalpur in Pakistan. Pakistani Armed Forces (PAF) spokespersons have claimed the attacks resulted in at least 26 dead and 46 injured.

The strikes, codenamed Operation Sindoor, were carried out as part of India’s broader strategy to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in neighbouring Pakistan, following the 22 April attack in Pahalgam. India’s Defence Ministry has declared that it targeted nine different sites considered “terrorist infrastructure” in a “focused, measured, and non-escalatory” manner, with sites allegedly linked to proscribed militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. No Pakistani military sites were reportedly targeted. Indian officials issued a list of alleged militant camps targeted across Pakistan in the aftermath.

In retaliation, Pakistani forces conducted cross-border shelling in Kashmir, reportedly killing and injuring several civilians, and have claimed to have downed five Indian military aircraft. Flight operations at Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport (KHI) and Lahore’s Allama Iqbal International Airport (LHE) were temporarily suspended overnight due to heightened risks posed by the ongoing aerial engagements.

Similar restrictions have also been implemented across nine airports in northern and western India, with Air India suspending flights to Jammu and Srinagar in Kashmir, Leh, Chandigarh, Jodhpur, Amritsar, Bhuj, Jamnagar, and Rajkot through 10 May.

Air France has suspended flights over Pakistan. Several other airlines have followed suit, re-routing or cancelling flights to and from Europe.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has described the strikes as an “unprovoked act of war” and referred to the Indian claims of targeting terrorist camps as “false”. Pakistan has justified the retaliatory military action as justified under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which allows self-defence in response to armed attack.

Amid the tit-for-tat strikes, both Indian and Pakistani strikes allegedly hit hydropower assets. Unconfirmed reports by Pakistani media have accused India of targeting the Noseri Dam near the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project. Two shells also landed on hydroelectric corporation offices in Indian-administered Kashmir, according to an Indian official.

India’s home ministry ordered mock drills to test preparation for an attack across the country to take place on 7 May, including air raid warning system tests. This constitutes the largest civil defence drill in India since 1971. India’s Air Force is expected to hold drills on the night of 7 May in the west of the country, and Delhi and Bengaluru airports are set to hold disaster management exercises; these are reportedly unlikely to impact passenger operations.

Beijing has declared that it is closely following the situation and has advised its citizens to avoid conflict areas. China’s foreign ministry has urged both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and refrain from taking escalatory actions.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The airstrikes come amid escalatory tit-for-tat actions between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack, which resulted in at least 26 civilian deaths. The attack was allegedly orchestrated by the Resistance Front, a reported offshoot of the Pakistan-linked terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The high civilian toll, almost all of whom were Hindu Indian nationals, has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, prompting mass deportations and the imposition of airspace restrictions in the days leading up to the 7 May strikes.

There is precedent for India retaliating with airstrikes after perceived Pakistan-backed militant attacks on its territory. In 2016 India launched “surgical strikes” against Pakistan after four militants killed 19 Indian soldiers in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir; in 2019, further strikes were launched in Balakot after 40 Indian paramilitary personnel were killed in a bombing in Pulwama.

Indian strikes on Pakistan have generally been subthreshold, designed to target militant camps to carry out retaliatory measures while not forcing Islamabad into entering into a direct conflict.

While Pakistan has responded with limited artillery shelling along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, it is likely Pakistan will be forced to respond with airstrikes under mounting public pressure. Pakistani retaliatory strikes are highly likely to be carefully calibrated to remain below the escalation threshold and to avoid triggering a major conflict with a rival nuclear power.

During previous hostilities in 2019, Pakistan refrained from directly targeting Indian military sites, instead striking open areas to demonstrate its capability while limiting civilian casualties. To avoid a major escalation or miscalculation, Pakistan will likely limit its strikes to Indian-administered territory in Jammu and Kashmir.

The targeting of dams, particularly in Indian-administered Kashmir, is highly likely due to India’s perceived weaponisation of water flows after unilaterally pulling out of the Indus Water Treaty. This has significantly escalated tensions between the two sides since it threatens Pakistan’s water supply and agricultural sector, with Pakistan having warned that any attempt from India to disrupt the flow of water from its rivers would be considered an act of war.

Over the past week, India has taken steps to enhance the storage capacity at two hydroelectric facilities in Jammu and Kashmir’s Himalayan region, constituting the first concrete action outside the framework of the Indus Water Treaty. In a highly likely perceived threat to Pakistan’s water supply, India began flushing silt at the Baglihar and Salal dams in the Kashmir valley on 3 May. This would ordinarily only be allowed during the monsoon season, as it involves nearly emptying the reservoirs of silt before closing the dams and slowly refilling them, choking water flow downstream.

Pakistan recorded a significant decrease in the waters of the Chenab River, and since 4 May, almost 90 per cent of the usual volume has been prevented from flowing into the Chenab River.

A full-scale conflict between the two nations remains unlikely despite the airstrikes. For India, a war would highly likely drag the country into a prolonged conflict that would significantly affect its economy. This would almost certainly stretch India’s armed forces, which have been underfunded in recent years, allowing Pakistan to catch up militarily.

Although the US has developed closer ties with India, especially during the Trump administration, a conflict between India and Pakistan would likely impact the global economy, giving the US a strong interest in promoting de-escalation.

Pakistan almost certainly cannot afford to enter a war. Pakistan Armed Forces are currently engaged in a multi-front internal conflict against militant groups, primarily in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While its military is more battle-tested than India’s, a war would almost certainly overstretch its armed forces, would risk destabilising the military-dominated government and would provide opportunities for militants to exploit.

Furthermore, a conflict would hinder the country’s progress in stabilising its economy. Pakistan was removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2023 after legislative and institutional reforms to address perceived anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing deficiencies. India has indicated plans to advocate for Pakistan’s re-entry in the aftermath of the militant attack, and a war would significantly increase the likelihood of this happening.

Furthermore, a conflict would hinder the country’s progress in stabilising its economy. Pakistan was removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2023 after legislative and institutional reforms to address perceived anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing deficiencies. India has indicated plans to advocate for Pakistan’s re-entry in the aftermath of the militant attack, and a war would significantly increase the likelihood of this happening.

If re-added, Pakistan would almost certainly face reduced investment and foreign aid, as well as risk being blacklisted, which would significantly affect is ability to finance its debt repayments.

Given that both nations are nuclear-armed, a full-scale conflict would risk rapid escalation and nuclear war. This acts as a deterrence from escalation for both sides, who will likely favour diplomatic options and limited skirmishes despite the ongoing brinkmanship. Diplomatic pressure will almost certainly be applied by regional powers including China.

Amid heightened sectarian tensions, there will highly likely be increased attacks between Hindus and Muslims in India and Pakistan, with probable clashes during protests. There is a realistic possibility of sectarian tensions also manifesting within diaspora communities, such as within the UK, US, and Canada. Disinformation campaigns framing the attack as a symptom of an inter-religious conflict are likely and will almost certainly exacerbate tensions.

This is especially since the tensions come shortly after Modi passed the Waqf Amendment Act, which changes the way Muslim waqf properties are governed, triggering violent protests by conservative Muslim communities, particularly in West Bengal.

There is a realistic possibility of lone-actor attacks, further inflaming sectarian tensions. Security forces of both countries will almost certainly be at a heightened state of alert during the current tensions, which likely reduces the threshold at which they will respond forcefully to perceived unrest, making clashes between protesters and security forces likely.


Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for India and Pakistan

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Jammu and Kashmir, as well as Indian-Pakistani border regions.
  • Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure.
  • Civil unrest and demonstrations are highly likely throughout both India and Pakistan. Travellers are advised to avoid all areas of unrest. Protests are likely to occur near government buildings, foreign embassies, and religious sites.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stranded in India or Pakistan.
  • The security situation in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to remain highly unstable in the coming weeks with an increased potential for further cross-border strikes, terror attacks, and civil unrest.
  • Evacuations and internal displacement will almost certainly lead to widespread travel disruption and congestion on major roads. Ensure vehicles are fuelled, consider alternative routes, and ensure that vehicles are loaded with additional fuel, water, food and other critical supplies.
  • Confirm booked flights are running before checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any losses in electricity. 
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.

25 April – 02 May

Global Intelligence Summary

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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events

Key Events This Week

America

AMER

Cartel Violence in Mexico

A surge in violence in a Mexican tourist location is highly likely linked to the fragmentation of the Sinaloa Cartel and may serve as a vignette as to how cartels will shift operations as narcotics smuggling is threatened.


Europe, Middle East and Africa

EMEA

Western Europe Power Grid Incident

The cause of a power outage across Western Europe will likely take weeks to identify, however, the incident almost certainly highlighted major vulnerabilities in the energy network that could be exploited in the future.

EMEA

Anti-Tourism Protests Set to Rise

Anti-tourism protests are almost certain to increase in frequency in May and peak during the summer, with South European states, like Spain, Portugal, France, and Italy, being particularly affected.

EMEA

AfD Extremist Label May Backfire

There is a realistic possibility that Germany’s designation of the AfD as an extremist group will result in increased levels of right-wing extremism, resulting from the party’s isolation on the political stage.

EMEA

Kremlin Likely to Exploit Ceasefire Deal

It is highly likely that the Kremlin will use an announced three-day ceasefire to accuse Ukraine of violations to gain concessions, with the minerals deal likely increasing US interest in supporting Ukraine.

EMEA

Romania Elections May Spark Protests

The 4 May presidential elections in Romania are highly likely to coincide with demonstrations by the supporters of banned candidate Călin Georgescu.

EMEA

Burkina Faso Risks Investment Fallout

Burkina Faso’s move to increase state ownership of foreign-operated industrial mines is likely to lead to coercive measures, discourage foreign investment, and cause long-term instability.

EMEA

Northeast Nigeria Violence Escalates Again

A surge in violence in northeast Nigeria is likely the result of overstretched government forces, an increase in extremist use of technology, and may be indicative of a temporary truce between rival groups.


Asia Pacific

APAC

India-Pakistan Tensions Remain Localised

While all-out conflict is unlikely between India and Pakistan, limited airstrikes, protests, and an escalation of sectarian violence in the two countries are highly likely.


The US Embassy in Mexico has issued a security alert for the popular tourist areas of Los Cabos (Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo) and La Paz in Baja California Sur, following a wave of violence in an area normally shielded from significant levels of cartel violence.

On 22 April, three high-ranking law enforcement officials were killed in the area in two separate attacks. On 24 April, at least three passenger buses were set on fire in Los Cabos and La Paz while passengers were still onboard. On 25 April, a shootout occurred in Cabo San Lucas during a security operation aimed at apprehending those responsible for the arson attacks on the buses.

In addition, cartels operating in the area have displayed “narcomantas” (banners) with threats against officials in public areas, including near the Los Cabos International Airport. The violence has resulted in an increase in security operations in the area and a wave of arrests. In one operation, Marcos Iván “N” (“Marquitos”), a senior figure in the La Mayiza (or Los Mayos) faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, was apprehended.

Solace Global Assessment: 

It is highly likely that the increase in violence in Baja California Sur is associated with the fragmentation of the Sinaloa Cartel following the detention of its senior leadership in July 2024. The arrest of Joaquín Guzmán López and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada resulted in infighting between the two primary factions within the Sinaloa Cartel, the Los Chapitos and the La Mayiza factions.

This has resulted in a steep rise in violence within Sinaloa, which has now likely migrated to Baja California Sur, where both factions are vying for territorial control of key smuggling routes on the Baja California Peninsula and lucrative elements of the tourist industry. The recent arrest of “Marquitos”, of the La Mayiza faction, likely triggered retaliatory actions by elements of Los Chapitos who are likely seeking to exploit the power vacuum and exert control over illicit revenue sources.

Initial reports now indicate that Rene Bastidas Mercado, or “El 00”, of the Los Chapitos faction is now in control of Baja California Sur. However, reports suggest that Abraham Cervantes Escareaga, known as “El Babay” of the La Mayiza faction, is attempting to reassert control over Baja California Sur.

Cartels often refrain from conducting violence in tourist areas for several reasons. Cartels often benefit directly and indirectly from the tourism industry, with profits generated from the direct ownership of tourism-related businesses, local drug sales to visitors, extortion of hospitality venues, and money laundering through cash-rich front companies.

Moreover, violence in tourist areas invariably invites a major increase in security operations and international scrutiny, particularly from the United States, whose travel advisories can significantly affect the local tourism industry. However, this tacit non-aggression pact has almost certainly been suspended as a result of the Sinaloa Cartel’s fragmentation, with rival factions calculating that a transient increase in violence and intimidation will be strategically beneficial in the long term once control is consolidated.

There is also a realistic possibility that the Mexican government’s increased force posture in northern Mexico and increased security on the US-Mexico border have led to a loss of revenue for the Sinaloa Cartel. Recent reporting indicates that the cartel has been forced to suspend or relocate operations due to increased arrests, seizures and raids, largely associated with increased pressure from the US, which has threatened tariffs and even direct action against the cartels if Mexico fails to curtail narcotics smuggling into the US.

This sustained pressure has reportedly impacted both narcotics and human smuggling revenues, two of the Sinaloa Cartel’s primary income streams. In response, it is highly likely that the cartel, especially its more fragmented factions, will attempt to compensate for these financial losses by expanding into alternative illicit revenue sources. One major avenue is extortion, which has long been used by the cartels to extract funds from local businesses.

This may account for the recent attacks on buses, with transport operators frequently for extortion and the attacks potentially retaliation for failing to pay protection fees or for paying the rival faction. If this assessment is accurate, the situation in Baja California Sur may serve as a vignette for how cartel operations are likely to adjust in the near future, with cartels shifting towards more localised and coercive tactics to generate revenue methods such as extortion, as transnational trafficking becomes riskier and less profitable.


Canada’s Liberal Party wins federal elections

The Liberals, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, have managed to win enough seats to form a minority government, following a last-minute surge in popular support that erased months of Conservative Party dominance in the polls. Carney, who replaced Justin Trudeau after the latter announced he would step down in January 2025, has campaigned on promises to reverse some of Trudeau’s most controversial policies and to respond to US economic coercion.


No party wins a majority in Cayman Islands general election

No party won a majority in the 30 April 2025 General Election. The People’s Progressive Movement won seven seats, but did not meet the ten required to form a majority. Two newly formed parties, the Cayman Islands National Party and the Caymanian Community Party each won four seats. A non-binding referendum on three issues was also held regarding whether the Cayman Islands should develop cruise berthing infrastructure, introduce a national lottery, and legalise marijuana. As with the 2021 election, parties will now engage in coalition talks to attempt to form a government.


Clashes in Dominican Republic over anti-migrant protests

Protests occurred in Santo Domingo on 27 April, coinciding with the 60th anniversary of the start of the Dominican Civil War. Demonstrations during the day were also organised by the Old Dominican Order, a nationalist group, which opposes the alleged “Haitianisation” of the country and has called for mass deportations of Haitian nationals.

While the protests began peacefully, there were reported clashes between protesters and the police, who deployed tear gas. While the current government of President Luis Abinader has adopted a tough stance on migration, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Haiti has almost certainly driven a rise in support for more radical nationalist and identitarian groups.


Opposition party wins snap election in Trinidad and Tobago

On 29 April, the Union National Congress (UNC), led by former prime minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, declared victory in a snap election. The election was called by the newly appointed Prime Minister Stuart Young, after Keith Rowley stepped down amid rising cost of living and soaring crime rates.

The election follows a 105-day state of emergency imposed after a surge in homicides, with 623 recorded in 2024 out of a population of approximately 1.5 million. The rise in murders is linked to criminal gangs, including the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua, and has placed the country among the most violent countries in the Americas, with a homicide rate of 37 per 100,000 people.

The Bissessar has promised numerous measures to combat the crime wave, including the establishment of new ministries of defence and justice. She has also promised to raise wages for public sector workers amid economic stagnation triggered by declining natural gas production, which comprises approximately 80 per cent of the country’s economy. Bissessar previously declared a state of emergency to combat crime during her first tenure as prime minister; there is a realistic possibility that she will use similar measures during her new tenure.


Violent protests erupt in Guyana after the death of an 11-year-old girl

Guyana has imposed a curfew effective from 29 April following violent protests caused by the death of an 11-year-old girl. The girl was found dead at a coastal resort in Tuschen, leading to accusations that she was sacrificed as part of a religious ritual.

The alleged murder and resulting police investigations led to protests in Tuschen, in the capital Georgetown and other parts of the country, with reports of looting, property damage and clashes with the police. The police resorted to using tear gas and firing ammunition after blockades were erected in the capital and clashes erupted outside of Georgetown Public Hospital. There is a realistic possibility of renewed unrest following the release of autopsy results, which are currently being finalised.

Security, Armed Conflict and Terror

Trump administration to designate Haitian gangs as FTOs

On 29 April, the Trump administration informed the US Congress of its intent to designate the Haitian gangs, Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif, as foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs). The move will follow the designation of several Latin American cartels as FTOs.

The designation could enable the US to freeze any financial assets held within US jurisdiction linked to the groups and could penalise anyone providing material support to the gangs. The move could also enable the Trump administration to deport anyone connected to the gangs from the US back to Haiti. In a far less likely development, the designation could also help provide legal justification for US counterterrorism or intelligence collection in Haiti.

Environment, Health and Miscellaneous

Red alert issued for Costa Rican volcano

On 24 April, a red alert was issued due to an increasing and significant series of eruptions taking place at the Poas Volcano, situated approximately 30km north of the capital, San José. The authorities have closed the Poas National Park as a result of the volcanic activity and have warned against approaching nearby riverbeds due to the presence of volcanic material. Should the volcano continue to release ash, there is a realistic possibility of disruption to air traffic at Juan Santamaría International Airport.


Powerful earthquake strikes off the coast of Esmeraldas, Ecuador

The earthquake, which struck around midday on 25 April, was magnitude 6.3 with a depth of 35 kilometres. Moderate shaking was felt in Esmeraldas, which led to multiple buildings being significantly damaged, with shaking being reportedly felt as far as Guayaquil. Although the earthquake happened at sea, it resulted in no tsunami threat.

Across Ecuador, at least 179 residences were damaged, with 22 people injured and 716 people being “affected”, the majority in Esmeraldas and Muisne. There were no disruptions recorded at Quito Airport.

Due to Ecuador’s proximity to the Pacific Ring of Fire and multiple fault lines, the country is highly seismically active. Previous powerful earthquakes, such as the 2016 7.8 magnitude quake near Muisne which killed at least 676 people, have caused a significant impact.


On 28 April 2025, a significant power outage affected mainland Spain, Portugal, Andorra, and parts of southwestern France, disrupting daily life for an estimated 55-60 million people. The blackout commenced at 12:33 CEST and persisted for up to ten hours in various regions. The cause of the blackout remains unknown, with investigations underway. Initial reports indicate a sudden and substantial drop in energy demand, which resulted in the destabilisation of the grid.

In Spain, the blackout halted all train and metro services, stranding an estimated 35,000 passengers, and disrupted operations at Madrid’s Barajas Airport. Internet and telecoms dropped to less than 20 per cent of normal capacity, while nuclear plants shut down automatically and relied on generators for cooling. Madrid enforced its emergency plan, closing shops and deploying police for traffic control. Economic losses were estimated at EUR 1.6 billion, and at least seven deaths were reported, with some linked to generator misuse.

In Portugal, essential services and payment systems failed, hospitals relied on generators, and public transport, including metro and rail, was suspended. Lisbon Airport was temporarily closed, while Porto and Faro airports operated on backup power. In France, the effects were limited to brief outages in parts of the southwest.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Investigations as to why the power outages occurred are ongoing and will likely take weeks to establish a widely accepted explanation. Several explanations have been advanced, although several experts are indicating that it may have been a convergence of factors and not a single cause.

As investigations progress, there is a huge risk of disinformation being proliferated, with largely discounted explanations, such as a state-sponsored cyber-attack, gaining a lot of traction in the information space. One popular theory alleges that Spain’s rapid integration of renewable energy is at fault. The theory is likely to fuel further controversy over net-zero energy policies and will almost certainly be leveraged by right-leaning groups to exert pressure on the current Sanchez administration in Spain.

Regardless of what caused the blackout, the incident highlighted multiple vulnerabilities. One of the primary vulnerabilities is Portugal’s overreliance on Spain for electricity imports, which left the country exposed to grid failures.

The disruption demonstrated how energy interdependence, which is typically beneficial under normal conditions, can rapidly become a liability when a neighbouring system experiences instability. The blackout clearly highlighted the fragility of digital and communications infrastructure across the affected areas. Both telecommunication and internet services fell to a fraction of their normal capacity, severely disrupting business and daily life.

The blackout also demonstrated major shortcomings in public sector preparedness, with inconsistent or poor contingency planning evident at multiple hospitals, airports and across the wider transport network.

While a deliberate cyberattack or act of sabotage has so far largely been dismissed as the cause, the scale and speed of the disruption underscore the systemic vulnerabilities within Europe’s interconnected energy networks. In the future, these weaknesses could be deliberately exploited by malicious state or non-state actors seeking to cause widespread disruption and economic loss if the underlying structural causes of the outage are not identified and addressed.


On 27 April, a group of anti-tourism protesters surrounded a tourist bus in the centre of Barcelona and sprayed its occupants with water guns. The symbolic event, which mirrors similar protests in 2023 and 2024, was carried out to launch the new manifesto of an international protest group, the Southern European Network Against Touristisation (SET).

Initially launched in 2018 in Spain, SET has gained significant traction since 2021 and has expanded to Italy, Spain, and Portugal, with local chapters in 17 cities. SET has pledged to continue to carry out direct action in the summer and has called for a general demonstration on 15 June.

Solace Global Assessment: 

While anti-tourist groups have existed in Europe since the early 2000s, often operating alongside or as part of smaller far-left and anarchist movements, a pan-European anti-tourism movement has considerably grown since the COVID-19 Pandemic. SET is only one of many similar groups, which include regional movements like Less Tourism, More Life (in the Balearic Islands), Banc the Temps (Mallorca), Arran (Catalonia), No Grandi Navi (Venice), Nice a Nous (Nice). However, the manifesto published following the Barcelona protest likely indicates an effort to coordinate direct action as part of an international movement.

Protests by SET and other anti-tourism groups are almost certain to occur in high-visibility areas, usually next to well-known tourist sites. A notable number of protests are likely to include direct action protest tactics. While most protests are likely to be peaceful, there remains a realistic possibility of isolated cases of harassment and vandalism targeting tourists or tourist facilities.

A smaller number of protests, likely including SET’s 15 June demonstration, will entail larger gatherings, meant to disrupt tourism-related activities in city centres. An example of this is the May 2024 march through the centre of Palma de Mallorca, which was attended by around 10,000 people.

In terms of dates, it is highly likely that protests will begin to intensify in frequency in the first weeks of May and will peak in late June and July, coinciding with the end of the academic year in most European countries.

Some elements within the broader movement have reportedly refused to rule out targeting airports and other transportation hubs, a move that could result in major transport disruptions if done at scale. These actions could consist of blockades of roads leading to and from transport hubs, or, particularly in the case of airports, attempts to enter the perimeter, thus forcing a shutdown of airport operations.


On 2 May, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), officially classified the country’s far-right party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), as a “proven right-wing extremist organisation.”  The move marks the most serious action to date designed to contain Germany’s growing far-right movement and was justified on the grounds that the BfV has definitive evidence that the AfD actively works against Germany’s democratic system.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The designation marks the first time in modern German history whereby a party with nationwide representation in parliament has been officially labelled as extremist, although some state-level branches of the AfD, such as those in the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia, have already received the designation. It is highly unlikely that the designation will result in the banning of the AfD. However, it will serve as a precursor for increased state surveillance of the AfD and will almost certainly isolate the party on the national stage, with other parties now far less likely to cooperate with the AfD within the Bundestag.

For AfD supporters, who secured almost 21 per cent of the vote in the 2025 federal election, the move will almost certainly be perceived as politically motivated and an attempt to suppress dissenting voices. The immediate effect of the designation is likely to be the galvanising of AfD’s base. This could result in the organising of protests across Germany, particularly in the east, which may lead to violent clashes between AfD supporters with both the police and counter-protestors.

In the long term, the designation is likely to lead to deeper divisions and could ultimately drive right-wing extremism underground if supporters feel it is no longer possible to achieve their objectives through established democratic structures. This trend is likely to translate into an increase in right-wing politically motivated violence, with right-wing extremist crimes totalling over 30,000 in 2024, according to the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA). Moreover, the reallocation of intelligence and counter-terrorism resources to monitor elements of the AfD could result in an overstretching of these resources, ultimately leading to reduced oversight of other forms of extremism within Germany.


After a 26 April meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Vatican, Trump wrote on social media that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be ‘just tapping me along’ and threatened Russia with ‘Banking or Secondary Sanctions’. This was followed by a Kremlin announcement on 28 April of a unilateral three-day ceasefire between 8 and 10 May during WWII Victory Day commemorations.

Furthermore, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on 29 April that the Victory Day ceasefire proposal ‘is the start of direct negotiations, without preconditions. Kyiv has responded by again calling for Washington’s previous proposal for a full, permanent ceasefire, or at least a 30-day ceasefire, as a prelude to comprehensive negotiations for a peace agreement.

Additional statements from the past week, however, from Lavrov, former President Dmitry Medvedev, and senior Kremlin officials, have all variably reiterated maximalist war goals as a condition for peace, which included the ‘destruction’ of the current Ukrainian government and the full annexation of desired oblasts, including currently unoccupied areas.

On 30 April, Ukraine and the US signed what has been termed the ‘minerals deal’, with the agreement having been delayed with talks needing to restart after the fractious February encounter between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance, in the White House.

The newly negotiated agreement is watered down in Ukraine’s favour compared to the previously proposed draft text, with the establishment of a joint fund with the US and Ukraine each contributing 50 per cent of financing and revenues split 50/50.

Following the minerals deal, the US State Department certified a proposed license to export USD 50 million worth of military aid to Ukraine, the first such permission since Trump paused Ukrainian military aid after taking office.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The minerals deal is the result of a concerted effort by Kyiv to find ways to incentivise the Trump administration to maintain US support for Ukraine, having been held off during the Joe Biden administration in anticipation of Trump’s second presidency.

The increasing frustration of Trump and US officials over the intransigence of Moscow during talks has led to the development of two highly distinct possible scenarios: a) Washington changes its approach to be more coercive against Russia, with the use of more stringent sanctions (as threatened by Trump), or possibly even the ramping of military support to Kyiv; or b) The Trump administration “washes its hands” of Ukraine, accusing both Moscow and Kyiv as being uncooperative and leaving the support of Ukraine to European allies.

The minerals deal has likely considerably reduced the likelihood of the second scenario in the short to medium term, although the final terms of the deal omit previously demanded stipulations on paying back the US for aid given thus far.

It is highly likely that the Kremlin will use the three-day ceasefire to accuse Kyiv of violations, as it did during the energy infrastructure moratorium. The Easter truce, whilst leading to a pause in long-range strikes against Ukrainian urban centres, was marred by extensive accusations of violations.

However, Moscow is highly likely motivated to keep Washington engaged in talks insofar as the Kremlin can leverage them for concessions to further its objectives, and likely fears forcing Trump into taking a more hardline approach. Although denied by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Putin’s claims on 26 April that Russian forces have retaken all of Kursk, if true, will likely result in a reorientation of Russian forces concentrated in the area to conduct new operations – including the developing northeastern Ukraine spring offensive towards Sumy.

It is likely that Moscow will continue to offer “olive branches” such as the Easter truce or the possibility of direct talks to set conditions for Washington to make concessions and apply pressure to Kyiv, whilst continuing to pursue results on the battlefield to achieve maximum leverage over Ukraine.


Romanians will vote to elect their next president on 4 May, with a second round on 18 May if no candidate receives an absolute majority. The elections are the second to happen in less than a year, as the previous vote in November 2024 was annulled by the Constitutional Court over alleged Russian interference, and the winning candidate, Călin Georgescu, was barred from running. Currently, the polls indicate that George Simion, leader of the populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), is the leading candidate. AUR has backed Georgescu’s unsuccessful challenge of the court ruling, and has pledged to give him a government role following a possible victory.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Georgescu’s supporters will likely stage demonstrations against the vote in the last days of the campaign, and on 4 May itself. These demonstrations are likely to be concentrated in Bucharest and are unlikely to result in large-scale traffic disruptions. Nevertheless, a realistic possibility remains of clashes between protesters and police.

In the short term, the elections are likely to be a source of political instability in Romania. With Georgescu’s ban, the vote will highly likely function as a “referendum” on the judiciary and on other Romanian state institutions.

Finally, there is a remote possibility of political violence. Following the annulment of the November 2024 vote, several extremist groups and activists have called for a “revolution” against the Romanian state and have encouraged supporters to attack state officials. If political violence were to occur, the most likely targets would be security personnel, state officials, or electoral stations and staff on or near 4 May. While unlikely to be directly targeted, travellers would be at risk of being collaterally impacted.


On 28 April, Burkina Faso Prime Minister Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo announced on a nationwide broadcast that the junta government is planning on increasing state ownership of foreign-operated industrial mines as part of efforts to retain a greater share of mining revenues. The initiative will be led by the recently formed state-owned company, Société de Participation Minière du Burkina (SOPAMIB).

SOPAMIB has already been used to achieve control of two industrial gold mines, which were previously owned by the London-listed firm, Endeavour Mining. The move also follows the revision of Burkina Faso’s mining code, which will prioritise national ownership, local suppliers, labour and expertise, but has generated fears of weakened investor protections, concerns of arbitrary state intervention due to a lack of legal clarity, the potential for retroactive contract changes, and pressure tactics.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Burkina Faso’s recent changes towards the mining sector are similar to those observed in Mali and Niger, two other resource-rich but highly unstable and fragile states suffering from endemic poverty, political instability and extremist violence. The junta is likely trying to capitalise on current gold prices, which have increased substantially since the imposition of US tariffs and the associated economic uncertainty.

While this may increase government revenue in the short term, there is a high likelihood that this shift will result in decreased foreign investment, greater economic instability, further isolation and overreliance on extractive industries. In the long term, it is likely that these trends will undermine attempts to stabilise the country, deter investment and reduce job creation, trends that will ultimately be to the advantage of extremists like the al-Qaeda-aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and other violent extremist organisations (VEOs), which collectively are assessed to already control approximately 50 per cent of the country.  

Burkina Faso’s efforts to consolidate control over the mining industry will likely involve coercive measures similar to those reported in Mali and Niger. This has involved the detention of foreign nationals working for foreign mining companies that have failed to adhere to the imposition of retroactive taxes or changes in mining codes.

In Mali, personnel belonging to Barrick Gold were detained in order to extract leverage from the company after the company allegedly failed to meet its tax obligations, with the junta also threatening to place the mine under provisional administration unless tax payments were made.  There have also been reports of gold stocks being seized, mining permits being suspended, and the seizing of mines, all tactics that the Burkina Faso junta is likely to employ as it asserts control over the mining industry.


A spate of attacks in northeastern Nigeria has resulted in warnings of a jihadist revival in the area. On 24 April, at least 14 farmers were killed in Borno State’s Gwoza district near the border with Cameroon, an attack that has been linked to Boko Haram.

On 26 April, Boko Haram ambushed and killed 10 members of the Civilian Joint Task Force in Adamawa State. Suspected twin Boko Haram attacks on 27 April in Adamawa and Borno resulted in 22 deaths, including hunters and Civilian Joint Task Force members.

On 28 April, Boko Haram attacked a Christian community in Borno, killing seven people and burning homes and churches. Then on 29 April, a roadside improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated on a bridge between Rann and Gamboru Ngala in Borno State, killing 26 civilians. The attack has been claimed by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).

The surge in violence since January has already led to a warning from the Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, who claimed that insurgents were making gains with minimal resistance from the Nigerian military. On 29 April, the Nigerian government appointed Major General Abdulsalam Abubakar as the new commander of counterinsurgency operations in the northeast but refused to officially link the appointment to the surge in violence.

Solace Global Assessment: 

In recent years, the Nigerian military has successfully managed to contain and even push back Boko Haram, with internal fights with ISWAP leading to a further weakening of the broader jihadist movement. However, both internal and external developments have likely shaped the conditions for a jihadist revival in the region.

The wider destabilisation and increase in extremism in the Sahel have severely impacted Nigeria. Groups like Boko Haram have been able to exploit the porous border with Niger to establish safe havens in the ungoverned spaces of the Sahelian state. However, more recently, there has been an emergence of new jihadist threats in the northwest of Nigeria linked to Niger, a development that when combined with a host of other internal threats such as banditry and successionist movements, has likely resulted in the overstretching of Nigeria’s military.

This development has been greatly compounded by the increased use of IEDs and uncrewed aerial vehicles by both groups, particularly ISWAP. This could indicate a shift towards more asymmetric tactics, employing high-impact attacks that are difficult to anticipate while conserving manpower by avoiding direct confrontation with security forces.

UAVs are also being increasingly used in an intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance (ISR) capacity by both groups, a trend that will enable the VEOs to better plan, coordinate and execute attacks against government forces, which are often poorly trained and ill-equipped. ISWAP’s increased use of technology may reflect developing links between it and the broader Islamic State (IS) network. IS has facilitated the transfer of funds, technical expertise and training across its affiliates, resulting in a significant enhancement of their capabilities.

If harnessed effectively by ISWAP and emulated by Boko Haram, it is highly likely that the increased use of these technologies will lead to a migration of violence from rural areas to urban areas, resulting in higher rates of civilian casualties.

Following an ideological split in 2016, Boko Haram’s and ISWAP’s relationship has been characterised by internecine fighting and attempts to expand into each other’s areas of influence. However, there have been previous attempts to establish a truce, likely driven by mutual concerns over external pressure.

The recent surge in violence, which has seen coordinated attacks across their typical area of operations, could be anecdotal evidence of a fragile truce in play. If this is the case, then the temporary cooperation and even coordination between Boko Haram and ISWAP could significantly increase the threat to security forces and civilians and could even lead to a transfer of expertise from IS-affiliate to Boko Haram, potentially resulting in more sophisticated tactics and attacks.


Anti-migrant protests and counterprotests on Easter Rising Day in Ireland

At least three people were arrested during protests on 27 April in Dublin. The protests were attended by around 5,000 people and were led by anti-migrant campaigners and activists. The relatively large attendance was highly likely driven by the high social media virality attained by the campaign due to the support of several online influencers and celebrities. Local civil society groups, as well as party members, staged counterprotests. Despite some hostile interactions between the two sides, no clashes were recorded.


Germany’s new cabinet announced

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will reflect the changed power dynamics between the Christian Democratic Union parties (CDU/CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD), with the former getting ten ministries and the latter seven. The Christian Democratic appointees are in line with Merz’s campaign pledges to increase state security and growth, and to crack down on immigration. The SPD’s main victory is its retention of the Defence Ministry, which will likely allow it to dictate a continuation of Berlin’s support for Kyiv, and a greater say on the direction of Germany’s rearmament plans. The new government is, nevertheless, still likely to face considerable domestic pressure.


Conclave to begin in the Vatican City on 7 May

The voting process to elect the new pope will likely coincide with large influxes of pilgrims and tourists to Rome and other Italian cities. There is a risk of terrorism due to the high visibility of the event and its importance for Catholics. Likewise, civil unrest remains possible, particularly smaller, symbolic actions, as groups capitalise on the visibility of the conclave to mainstream their position. Travellers to Rome are likely to encounter traffic and service disruptions. While a conclave can last indefinitely, the process is likely to take less than a week. Nevertheless, disruptions are likely to continue in the short term following the papal election.


Hungarian opposition lawmakers temporarily barred from parliament

On 28 April, Hungary’s parliament voted to temporarily banish and cut the salaries of six opposition Momentum MPs after they lit flares and played the Soviet national anthem in protest of the 18 March ban on LGBTQ+ Pride marches. The House Speaker Laszlo Kover has also filed a criminal complaint against three of the MPs over the use of flares.

This constitutes the first instance of members of parliament being banned from the chamber since Hungary became a democracy in 1990. Ruling party Fidesz’s decision to ban Pride marches is highly controversial, and the EU is currently investigating whether the party’s plan to deploy facial recognition technology is illegal. Numerous protests have occurred in the wake of the government’s decision to ban Pride events, and more are likely following the news regarding the banning of MPs.


Mali’s junta plans to dissolve all political parties

The national dialogue committees promoted by the junta after taking power in 2021 have issued “recommendations” for junta leader Assimi Goita to become the country’s president and begin a five-year term, and for dissolving all existing parties. The proposals were justified by their proponents as meant to align Mali to the political structure of the other members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The move, which is likely to be mostly or fully adopted by the junta, will almost certainly further centralise power in the junta’s hands and disenfranchise civil society organisations. The ban on parties and the de facto prohibition of the creation of new ones is likely to be weaponised by the government to target domestic political dissent.


Opposition leader appears in court, and more opposition officials arrested in Tanzania

On 28 April, Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu appeared in court to face sedition charges following his recent arrest. Armed police barred access to the courthouse to journalists and members of the Chadema Party, resulting in accusations of an attack on press freedom and a violation of constitutional rights. Police also conducted illegal raids in the homes of Lissu and Deputy Chairperson John Heche, and other key officials from Chadema were arrested in separate incidents. These incidents have drawn international condemnation and fears that Tanzania is drifting towards more authoritarianism under President Samia Suluhu Hassan ahead of the November general election.

Security, Armed Conflict and Terror

Lone wolf “Incel” attacker injures two in Leeds, UK

On 26 April, a man reportedly injured two women using a crossbow in Headingley, Leeds. The attacker, who was found to also be in possession of a firearm, was arrested by responding police.

Online posts reportedly originating from the perpetrator’s Facebook profile indicate that he espoused a violent ideology marked by extreme hatred of women, linked to “incel” (“involuntary celibate”) online subcultures. This link with incel ideology is likely further underscored by the attacker’s choice of target. The Headingley area is especially frequented by students of nearby Leeds University, and, by selecting it, the attacker likely sought to harm students.

Past incel lone wolves, like the 2014 Isla Vista attacker, the 2015 Umpqua Community College shooter, the 2017 Aztec, New Mexico and 2018 Parkland, Florida school shooters, all deliberately targeted students.


Online calls for violence targeting UK Hindu and Muslim communities

The rise in tensions between India and Pakistan following the recent terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir has almost certainly driven a sharp increase in the spread of misinformation and hateful content targeting Hindus and Muslims, particularly those from diaspora communities, in the UK.

Notably, a considerable amount of the content espouses far-right and identitarian ideologies, in addition to religious extremism. The development almost certainly showcases the growing threat of sectarian violence within diaspora communities. There is a realistic possibility of political violence, including mob violence, occurring in large UK cities following further increases in India-Pakistan tensions.


Islamophobic stabbing attack kills one in France

On 25 April, a man carried out a stabbing attack at a mosque in Ales, France, killing one worshipper. The alleged perpetrator, who was detained by Italian police after trying to flee the country, is a French-Bosnian citizen who reportedly shouted anti-Islamic slogans and filmed himself during the attack, subsequently sharing the video online.

Civil society organisations have staged rallies in solidarity with the victims and the French Muslim communities and have called for a national day of direct action on 11 May. The attack in Ales shares multiple details with similar lone wolf attacks, including the use of bladed weapons, the selection of a high-visibility target, and the recording and sharing of the attack on social media.


Three people gunned down in Uppsala, Sweden

On 29 April, three people under the age of 20 were shot dead at a hair salon in the Swedish city of Uppsala, approximately 40km north of Stockholm. The police responded by establishing a large cordon of the area, suspending all rail traffic in the immediate area and conducting a manhunt, which ultimately led to the arrest of a 16-year-old suspect.

The motive for the shooting remains unconfirmed; however, authorities believe it is connected to the ongoing gang-related violence that has affected Sweden in recent years, violence that, according to some assessments, has made the country the worst in the EU for gun crime. The incident also highlights the trend of increasing youth involvement in violent crimes.


Israel conducts airstrikes near Syrian presidential palace following sectarian clashes against Druze

On the morning of 2 May, Israel conducted airstrikes within 500 metres of Syria’s presidential palace in Damascus. Syrian sources indicate that the interim-President Ahmad al-Sharaa and top officials had left the palace just an hour prior. The strikes follow sectarian violence in Jaramana and other predominantly Druze areas of southern Syria between 28-30 April, after the circulation online of an audio clip alleged to be a Druze leader insulting the Islamic Prophet Muhammad, which has been denied by the accused Druze sheikh.

Sunni gunmen entered Druze towns and clashed with Druze militias, with the General Security Forces attempting to curb the violence. At least 102 people have reportedly been killed thus far in the clashes. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the Israeli strikes are intended to be a warning to Damascus, to deter the deployment of Syrian forces south of Damascus or threats against the Druze community.

It is almost certain that the Sharaa government does not exercise control over the fighters who are attacking the Druze. In comparison to the March massacres of Alawites, government-aligned security forces have highly likely been far more effective in attempts to prevent sectarian clashes against the Druze, successfully cordoning off Druze settlements despite suffering casualties. The Israeli strikes, however, will likely further inflame hostilities emanating from Sunni militants against the Druze, and there is a realistic possibility that these hostilities will be increasingly directed against the Sharaa government if it is perceived as being weak against Israel.


Iraqi security arrests one ISIS suspect in connection with New Orleans truck attack

A spokesperson of the Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council said that Iraqi forces had arrested the individual responsible for “inspiring” the New Year’s Eve attack that killed 14 people. This represents an important development for analysing the attack. While it immediately became evident that the perpetrator had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), the new arrest likely demonstrates a greater level of vertical direction and a sustained commitment from the VEO to conduct external attacks outside of the Levant.


US strikes hit migrant centre in Yemen, as UK joins the new aerial campaign against Houthis

The US-led aerial campaign against the Houthi movement in Yemen has continued, with the UK having now also participated in aerial strikes. On 28 April, a migrant detention centre was reportedly hit by US strikes, with the Houthi-run health ministry and media claiming 68 fatalities and 47 injuries. Whilst Houthi-provided statistics are unreliable, footage from the bombing’s aftermath has been geolocated and verified.

On 29 April, the UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF) conducted strikes using precision-guided bombs against a cluster of buildings identified as being used to manufacture drones, 24km south of Sanaa. The migrant trail from East Africa to Saudi Arabia results in considerable numbers of Ethiopians, Sudanese, Somalis crossing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to Yemen, and available information indicates that a majority of the casualties from the 28 April attack were Ethiopian.

During US President Donald Trump’s first presidency, the Pentagon relaxed the rules of engagement for airstrikes in 2017, which almost certainly contributed towards a 330 per cent increase in civilian casualties from US airstrikes in 2019 compared to 2016. It is highly likely that Trump has similarly relaxed rules of engagement during his second presidency.

The UK’s participation in the new anti-Houthi aerial campaign is likely partly conditioned by an attempt to appease the Trump administration, with senior advisors and the Vice President having expressed frustration at the lack of European action against the Houthis. With reports indicating that a potential US-UK trade deal is being given ‘second-order priority’, Westminster is likely further incentivised to appease Washington’s desires for increased military involvement against the Houthis.


Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) increases kidnapping operations

On 26 April, ISSP operatives attacked a Nigerien military convoy in the Sakoira area. The ambush resulted in the deaths of 12 Nigerien soldiers, and the kidnapping of five Indian nationals. In 2025 alone, ISSP has kidnapped at least 14 foreign nationals. Of these, only four Moroccan truck drivers who had been kidnapped near the Niger-Burkina Faso border have been released (although some sources dispute this), while a Spanish national kidnapped in southern Algeria was rescued by Azawad forces.

The sharp increase in the number of kidnappings makes them highly likely part of a concerted effort by ISSP’s leadership, marking a shift in the group’s strategy. Moreover, unlike the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which, during its zenith in 2014-2017, sought to kidnap foreigners as a propaganda tool and later executed them, ISSP has not released media regarding the hostages, possibly indicating that it is seeking to negotiate ransom payments for their release.


Reports indicate JNIM attempting to establish presence in eastern Senegal

A report by the Timbuktu Institute has indicated a significant escalation in jihadist activity by the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in the tri-border region of Kayes, which includes parts of Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal. The report suggests that attacks between 2021 and 2024 have increased sevenfold in the area and that JNIM are attempting to infiltrate eastern Senegal.

JNIM is likely capitalising on weak state governance and the prioritisation of regime survival in Mali to increase its influence in the area, which it will exploit to increase attacks in Senegal. The strategy likely reflects similar attempts to establish safe havens and buffer zones in other countries that border the Sahelian states, such as Benin and Togo, a move that would allow JNIM to expand its economic activity and recruitment in Senegal to exert greater pressure on the Malian government.


Renewed assaults on El Fasher in Sudan’s Darfur region

On 29 April, at least 41 people were killed in shelling of El Fasher in a renewed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) offensive. El Fasher is the regional capital of North Darfur and constitutes the final town held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SAF reported that they killed 600 militants and 25 military vehicles, a number likely inflated.

The RSF is intensifying the siege of the city after being pushed out of Khartoum by the SAF, and its capture is almost certainly a high priority for the paramilitary. By capturing El Fasher, the RSF will complete a crucial step in consolidating its control of Darfur, where it has recently formed a parallel government.

Humanitarian groups in the region have been forced to halt food distributions in the city, and at least 540 people have been killed in the region in the past three weeks. The renewed offensive will almost certainly impact humanitarian operations in Darfur, since El Fasher constitutes a hub for humanitarian operations in all five Darfur states.


Opposition MP killed in “targeted and premeditated” shooting in Nairobi, Kenya

On 30 April, Charles Ong’ondo Were, a member of parliament representing Kasipul constituency in the west of Kenya for the Orange Democratic Movement, was shot and killed in the capital, Nairobi. Were was shot when his vehicle was stationary at traffic lights by a shooter riding as a pillion passenger on the back of a motorcycle. The police have described the killing as “targeted and premeditated”.

The assassination of politicians is relatively rare in Kenya but Were had previously voiced concerns for his safety. Should the public perceive the incumbent administration as being in any way implicated, there is a realistic possibility of civil unrest in Kenya. Public dissatisfaction with President Ruto is already high, resulting from the 2024 attempt to pass a controversial tax bill and the government’s handling of the subsequent protests, which led to multiple civilian fatalities and mass arrests.

Environment, Health and Miscellaneous

Major explosion at Iranian port leads to mass casualties and significant economic disruption

A large explosion on 26 April at Shahid Rajaei Port in Bandar Abbas, Iran killed at least 70 people and injured over 1,000. The port handles 85 per cent of Iran’s shipping, including a considerable proportion of oil exports. 1,500 hectares of the port are estimated to have been affected, and authorities state that it will take one to two weeks to return to normal operations.

The explosion will highly likely exacerbate Iran’s ongoing economic crisis, with losses of approximately USD 25 million per day since 26 April. The Iranian interior minister, Eskander Momeni, blamed noncompliance with safety precautions and negligence for the blast, with customs authorities claiming the trigger was imported cargo catching fire.

Western media, however, has implicated a sodium perchlorate shipment, which is used to produce solid fuels used in ballistic missiles, which has been denied by Iran’s defence ministry. The port reportedly received hundreds of tons of the chemical precursor in February and March, almost certainly delivered from China. Some experts point towards ammonium nitrate, which is a widely used fertiliser and industrial explosive, as a likely culprit, as it was for the 2020 Beirut port explosion. Detonating ammonium nitrate is difficult, however, without other chemicals catalysing it, such as the fireworks which triggered the detonation in Beirut.

While it would be unusual for the sodium perchlorate to be stored at the port for so long after delivery, an unnamed source linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) briefed that the chemical was responsible for the explosion. Whatever the cause, there is a realistic possibility of civil unrest due to the number of fatalities, exacerbation of Iran’s economic woes, and the perceived or actual cover-up being conducted by authorities.


Wildfires in Israel threaten Jerusalem

As of 2 May, wildfires that threatened Jerusalem have been largely contained. The Israeli government declared a national emergency after Israel’s largest ever wildfires broke out on 1 May along the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv highway. High winds have exacerbated the fire, spreading it to burn at least 5,000 acres.

Approximately 163 ground crews and 12 aircraft are attempting to contain the fires, with military planes dropping retardant to stop them from spreading. On 2 May, authorities declared the re-opening of the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv highway.

The fires are suspected to have been deliberately started, and conflicting reports have emerged regarding the number of arson suspects detained; Prime Minister Netanyahu mentioned 18 arrests, while police have confirmed only three. Due to the effectiveness of the fires and the associated disruption, there is a realistic possibility that this tactic will be emulated in the future.


Following the 22 April militant attack that killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, tensions have escalated between India and Pakistan. On 30 April, India responded in kind to Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian airlines, closing its airspace for all Pakistani aircraft until 23 May.

On the same day, Modi held a meeting with senior state and defence officials, declaring that the Indian armed forces have the freedom to decide the ‘timing, targets, and mode’ of their response to the militant attack. Pakistan’s information minister has warned of ‘credible intelligence’ that there may be an imminent attack from India and has warned that it will respond appropriately.

Troops have exchanged small-arms fire across the border, but no casualties have been reported. The US and UN have called for de-escalation, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging Islamabad to condemn the terror attack and cooperate in its investigation.

Solace Global Assessment: 

A full-scale conflict between the two nations remains unlikely despite the escalating tensions and aggressive rhetoric. For India, a war would highly likely drag the country into a prolonged conflict that would significantly affect its economy.

Furthermore, there is a realistic possibility that China would join the conflict as a Pakistani ally, and New Delhi would almost certainly like to avoid a multi-front war, which would stretch its armed forces, which have been underfunded in recent years, allowing Pakistan to catch up militarily.

Although the United States has developed closer ties with India, especially during the Trump administration, a conflict between India and Pakistan would likely impact the global economy, giving the US a strong interest in promoting de-escalation.

Pakistan almost certainly cannot afford to enter a war. Pakistan Armed Forces are currently engaged in a multi-front internal conflict against militant groups, primarily in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While its military is more battle-tested than India’s, a war would almost certainly overstretch its armed forces, would risk destabilising the military-dominated government and would provide opportunities for militants to exploit.

Furthermore, Pakistan was removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2023 after legislative and institutional reforms to address perceived anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing deficiencies. India has indicated plans to advocate for Pakistan’s re-entry in the aftermath of the militant attack, and a war would significantly increase the likelihood of this happening. If re-added, Pakistan would almost certainly face reduced investment and foreign aid, as well as risk being blacklisted.

Limited airstrikes and limited border clashes are likely amid significant public pressure for visible action. In the aftermath of the 2019 suicide bombing in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir by a Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), India launched airstrikes across the line of control in Balakot targeting an alleged JeM training camp. Similar actions are highly likely in the coming days and will likely target militant camps away from populated areas to avoid a miscalculation or significant escalation.

Pakistan will likely respond with limited and sub-threshold military action designed not to provoke an escalation. Cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure are also likely, due to the minimal threat of loss of life.

Amid heightened sectarian tensions, there will highly likely be increased attacks between Hindus and Muslims in India and Pakistan, with probable clashes during protests. There is a realistic possibility of sectarian tensions also manifesting within diaspora communities, such as within the UK, US and Canada.

Disinformation campaigns framing the attack as a symptom of an inter-religious conflict are likely and will almost certainly exacerbate tensions. There is a realistic possibility of lone-actor attacks, further inflaming sectarian tensions.

Security forces of both countries will almost certainly be at a heightened state of alert during the current tensions, which likely reduces the threshold at which they will respond forcefully to perceived unrest, making clashes between protesters and security forces likely.


Bangladesh seizes Hasina family assets

This follows a ruling by the Anti-Corruption Commission, which targets multiple real estate assets, land, and more than 120 bank accounts. The interim government has capitalised on its efforts to dismantle the remnants of the government led by Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League (AL) party, following their removal from power in August 2024, to increase its support and maintain its unstable hold on power.

The volume and value of the assets that have been targeted almost certainly showcase the extent and penetration of the system of clientelism promoted by AL and Hasina as part of their efforts to maintain political supremacy. While authorities have highlighted the importance of due process, assets linked with AL members have been repeatedly targeted in acts of mob vandalism. There is a high likelihood of this trend continuing, despite government efforts to curtail it.

Security, Armed Conflict and Terror

Pakistani security forces kill 54 militants at Afghan border

Security forces reportedly engaged dozens of militants as they were trying to cross the border on the night of 26-27 April in the North Waziristan area. The Pakistani military called the militants “Khwarij”, a term that usually refers to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and is an iteration of “Kharijites”, a name derived from early Islamic history often used as a derogatory term to describe violent, extremist and revolutionary Islamist groups.

The incident’s casualty count is unusually high and likely highlights ongoing TTP efforts to reinforce their position on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line. TTP, moreover, may be seeking to capitalise on Pakistan’s ongoing instability and its tensions with India, which have a realistic possibility of overstretching or unbalancing Islamabad’s security forces. De facto, Pakistani officials have hinted at this logic: following the attack, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi stated that the TTP were prompted to carry out their incursion by “foreign masters” (obviously referring to Kabul) who “[asked] them to enter Pakistan as soon as possible”.


Car-ramming attack at Chinese elementary school

A man reportedly drove a vehicle into a crowd of students and parents outside an elementary school in Jinhua, Zhejiang province. Due to limited information being released about the incident by Chinese media, the exact number of injuries is unclear, although videos taken by bystanders seem to show at least five injuries.

There is a realistic possibility that this attack falls within the “revenge against society” attacks (sometimes referred to with terms like “Zhang Xianzhong” or “Xianzhongxue” on Chinese social media, after the leader of a 17th-century peasant rebellion). These attacks have attracted significant media attention since at least 2021, and around 20 alleged cases occurred in 2024 alone. They are characterised by the lack of a clear ideological motive, the targeting of low-visibility and high-density locations (often schools), and the use of improvised weapons, like vehicles or knives. Moreover, unlike lone wolf attackers in Western countries, perpetrators are not preoccupied with sharing their actions on social media.


Twin attacks in Thailand’s Yala province

Two coordinated insurgent attacks in Thailand’s Yala province between 28–29 April killed three security personnel and injured another, highlighting the persistent threat posed by Muslim separatist groups in the Deep South, despite ongoing peace talks and increased security measures following a spate of attacks in recent months.

If attacks continue at this rate, there is a realistic possibility that the government rejects peace talks and pursues more aggressive military tactics. This would constitute a similar approach seen under former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which involved the imposition of curfews, arbitrary arrests, an increase in raids and the use of military tribunals for suspected militants.

Environment, Health and Miscellaneous

Wildfires in South Korea cause significant disruptions in Daegu

Wildfires that began on 28 April in Daegu led to the evacuation of over 5,000 residents and the issuance of a Level 3 wildfire response, the highest tier, from the Korea Forest Service. Several disruptions resulted from the fires, including the closure of local schools and key infrastructure such as Gyeongbu expressway. By the evening of 28 April, the fire was reportedly 50 per cent contained and by the afternoon of 29 April, the fire was reportedly fully extinguished. On 30 April, however, the fire rekindled, prompting further evacuation advisories for nearby residents, particularly around the Guam neighbourhood.

In addition to the considerable impact in neighbourhoods close to the fires, the wildfires caused a deterioration in air quality across Daegu. The Daegu wildfires follow the March wildfires that originated in Ulseong, which were the worst in South Korean history and killed at least 28 people. According to a report published by an independent body of scientists and researchers, the Ulseong fires were highly unusual in terms of scale and speed, with climate change being a significant factor. Climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and severity of wildfires globally.


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