Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence and Travel Advice

INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 15 May 2026 – 19 May 2026

Executive Summary

• On 17 May, Pakistani mediators shared with the US a revised Iranian proposal, which was again rejected as insufficient. US President Donald Trump stated on 18 May that the US had planned to conduct strikes against Iran on 19 May but that this was called off following calls with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.
• The two parties are highly likely to remain at a diplomatically unresolvable impasse without either side moving on its red lines, particularly regarding the nuclear file. If the US resumes strikes against Iran to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East.
• Escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and it is likely that sporadic Iranian strikes will continue to prioritise the UAE unless there is a return to full-scale regional conflict.
• On 17 May, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence announced that three attack drones had entered the UAE from the western direction, with one attack drone striking an electrical generator at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the Al Dhafra Region. Authorities have stated that “the incident did not affect the safety of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant” and no increase in radiation has been recorded.
• On 17 May, the Saudi Ministry of Defence stated that “three drones were intercepted and destroyed after entering the Kingdom’s airspace coming from Iraqi airspace.” These are the first public claims of hostile projectiles over Saudi Arabia since 12 April, but it is unconfirmed where the drones were targeting, and the incursion may be linked to the attack targeting the UAE.
• As of 19 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions were reactivated in the UAE following renewed Iranian attacks.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 12 May 2026 – 15 May 2026

Executive Summary

• Following the 11 May reports that the UAE had earlier secretly participated in the conflict as an active combatant with kinetic strikes against Iran, reports emerged on 12 May that Saudi Arabia had also launched several strikes against Iran.
• The Saudi strikes likely resulted in an opposite effect to those conducted by the UAE, reducing rather than increasing Iran’s willingness to attack Saudi territory. Riyadh likely ordered limited, calibrated attacks against Iran to restore deterrence, and Tehran likely views an escalation with Saudi Arabia as a higher risk than with the UAE.
• As recently demonstrated, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. The UAE has highly likely been targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and it is likely that sporadic Iranian strikes will continue to prioritise the UAE unless there is a return to full-scale regional conflict.
• With the current diplomatic track facing major difficulties, Washington may conclude that a return to conflict is the only means of forcing compliance from Tehran. If this occurs, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East.
• Recent leaked assessments by US intelligence services indicate that Iran has restored access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz; regained access to around 90 per cent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities; fields 70 per cent of its transporter erector launchers; and retains 70 per cent of its prewar missile stockpile. If accurate, these assessments likely suggest Iran maintains the capability to conduct large-scale long-range strikes for several more months.
• As of 15 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions were reactivated in the UAE following renewed Iranian attacks.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 8 May 2026 – 12 May 2026

Executive Summary

• On 10 May, Tehran sent through its response to the US-proposed draft agreement, which reportedly included several maximalist demands and minimal to no concessions. US President Donald Trump described the Iranian response as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and said that the “ceasefire with Iran is on massive life support”.
• On 10 May, Kuwaiti authorities announced the detection of an unspecified number of “hostile drones”, the UAE’s Ministry of Defence announced that Emirati air defence systems successfully engaged two attack drones launched from Iran, and a bulk carrier was reported to have been struck by a drone in Qatar’s territorial waters.
• On 11 May, US media reported that the UAE has secretly participated in the Iran conflict as an active combatant. The emerging reports will likely reinforce Iran’s prioritisation of the UAE as a target over other Gulf States.
• On 12 May, Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior announced that the four individuals arrested early this month for attempting to infiltrate Bubiyan Island, Kuwait, were members of Iran’s IRGC. The attempted infiltration, if confirmed, highlights the ongoing threat of IRGC asymmetric and sabotage operations, particularly against high-value targets such as critical national infrastructure.
• As recently demonstrated, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and it is likely that Iranian ‘retaliation’ strikes will continue to prioritise the UAE in the immediate term due to these factors.
• With the current diplomatic track facing major difficulties, Washington may conclude that a return to conflict is the only means of forcing compliance from Tehran. If the US resumes strikes against Iran to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East.
• As of 12 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions were reactivated in the UAE following renewed Iranian attacks.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 5 May 2026 – 8 May 2026

Executive Summary

• Iran launched another wave of strikes against the UAE on 5 May. Emirati air defences were activated again on 8 May, with no immediate reports of damage.
• On 5 May, President Trump announced that Project Freedom would be suspended, the US being highly likely constrained by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait suspending the use of their territory and airspace. However, reporting on 7 May indicates that these restrictions have been lifted. Should Project Freedom restart, this would likely lead to further Iranian strikes against the UAE.
• On 7 May, Iranian forces launched missiles and attack drones at three US naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US forces subsequently conducted strikes against the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas and the island of Qeshm.
• As illustrated on 3-5 May and 7-8 May, escalation in the maritime domain can quickly lead to Iranian strikes targeting the UAE. The UAE has been highly likely targeted over other Gulf States due to multiple factors, and it is likely that Iranian ‘retaliation’ strikes will continue to prioritise the UAE in the short term due to these factors.
• As of 8 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Flight restrictions have been reactivated in the UAE.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 1 May 2026 – 5 May 2026

Executive Summary

• On 4 May, Iranian forces launched 15 missiles and four attack drones at the oil terminal in Fujairah, UAE. This marks the first attacks originating directly from Iran against the Gulf States since the implementation of a ceasefire on 8 April.
• Omani officials also reported that a building housing workers was damaged by an “attack” in the Tibat area of Bukha, which is in close proximity to the Emirati border, with “moderate injuries to two expatriates”.
• The attacks followed the 3 May announcement by US President Donald Trump of the new Project Freedom initiative and escalated conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Iranian strikes on the UAE almost certainly represent the most significant escalation since the ceasefire’s implementation on 8 April. However, messaging from US President Donald Trump has so far refrained from stating that the ceasefire has been violated or is no longer in effect.
• There is a high risk of a tactical miscalculation and/or escalation occurring in the maritime domain, with retaliatory strikes unlikely to be contained to the immediate area of engagement or the maritime domain.
• If the US and/or Israel resume strikes against Iran in an effort to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed full-scale Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. Such attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting, in particular to include oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati port of Fujairah (as it did on 4 April).
• As of 5 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman are open. Following the 4 May attacks, flight restrictions have been reactivated in the UAE.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 28 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026

Executive Summary

• On 29 April, Trump reiterated that US forces will continue to impose a naval blockade on Iran until the Iranian government agrees to a deal that addresses its nuclear programme. Overall, it is unlikely that the US blockade will be capable of compelling Iran to make immediate concessions.
• On 29 April, US officials said that the USS Gerald R Ford carrier is set to depart the Middle East and return to its homeport in Virginia in the coming days. This may be in anticipation of a relief in place with an additional carrier.
• On 30 April, President Trump reportedly received a briefing on potential plans for new military action against Iran. US officials have briefed that the proposals include a “short and powerful” wave of strikes, likely including infrastructure targets.
• If the US resumes strikes against Iran to break the current deadlock, this would highly likely result in renewed Iranian attacks against targets across the Middle East. Attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting to include assets and infrastructure that enable the Gulf States to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, such as oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati port of Fujairah.
• An Iran-affiliated group reportedly targeted US troops in Bahrain in an information campaign on social media.
• As of 1 May, the airspaces of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 24 Apr 2026 – 28 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• On 25 April, Iran’s foreign minister reportedly set forth demands from Tehran in Islamabad that the US naval ‘blockade’ of the Strait of Hormuz be lifted as a precondition for talks, giving a proposal to solve the Strait crisis first with a ceasefire extension, with nuclear negotiations delayed to a later stage.
• US President Donald Trump subsequently announced that a planned trip to Islamabad by US negotiators had been cancelled due to Tehran’s unchanged negotiating position and a lack of commitment to meet, but that this does not mean a resumption of war.
• Continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the current lack of further US-Iran talks to formally extend the ceasefire have increased the risk of a return to full-scale conflict. Such a conflict would highly likely result in renewed Iranian attacks against targets in the Gulf States.
• The current status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is almost certainly untenable for both the US and Iran in the long term, and it is unlikely that either party will be willing to prolong the situation indefinitely.
• On 24 April, Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence stated that two northern border posts were targeted by drones originating from Iraq, resulting in material damage but no casualties.
• As of 28 April, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 21 Apr 2026 – 24 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• On 21 April, potential US-Iran talks in Pakistan were put on hold after Iran refused to send a delegation to the negotiations. US President Donald Trump subsequently unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely, although US officials briefed on 22 April that the extension is expected to last only three to five days.
• The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group (CSG) entered the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AoR) on 23 April, transiting past eastern Africa. Depending on transit speed, the Bush CSG is anticipated to be on station within two to four days.
• On 22 April, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media outlet Fars News Agency published a list of threatened targets in the Gulf States if their “geography and facilities are used” in attacks against Iran. These included specific oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.
• As of 24 April, Kuwaiti airspace has been opened following an announcement by the authorities. Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar’s airspaces are open, although carriers must adhere to strict procedures. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain fully open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 17 Apr 2026 – 21 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• US President Donald Trump stated on 20 April that the deadline for the two-week ceasefire is now Wednesday evening (22 April), Washington time.
• The ceasefire came under significant pressure and has been considered on the verge of collapse following continuing disputes in the Strait of Hormuz.
• As of 21 April, it remains unclear whether further potential talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, between the US and Iran will go ahead. US Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Islamabad imminently, with Iranian participation unconfirmed.
• If a ceasefire extension is not agreed upon before its expiration or potential talks result in a total breakdown in negotiations, there is a high likelihood of kinetic activity returning to pre-ceasefire levels. All parties have likely exploited the ceasefire to improve their offensive and defensive positions.
• On 20 April, the UAE’s State Security Agency announced that it dismantled a “terrorist organisation” and arrested its member over an alleged plot which included plans for “coordinated terrorist and sabotage attacks”.
• As of 21 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 14 Apr 2026 – 17 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• US officials have briefed that further direct in-person talks are likely before the expiration of the ceasefire. A Pakistani delegation visited Tehran on 16 April, and calls and draft proposal exchanges have reportedly continued remotely between the US and Iran.
• Both Iran and the US almost certainly remain incentivised to continue negotiations in the immediate term, although the ceasefire remains highly fragile and could break down rapidly with minimal advanced warning.
• If a ceasefire extension is not agreed upon in the coming days, there is a high likelihood of kinetic activity returning to pre-ceasefire levels. All parties have likely exploited the ceasefire to improve their offensive and defensive positions.
• On 16 April, US President Donald Trump stated that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. The status of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire likely plays a key role in either strengthening or weakening the Iran-US ceasefire.
• On 17 April, it was reported that Dubai Police confirmed in official internal documents that “electronic monitoring operations” were used to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group. The individual who sent the video was then reportedly located, lured to a meeting point, and arrested by police.
• As of 17 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 10 Apr 2026 – 14 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• Both Iran and the US almost certainly remain incentivised to continue negotiations in the immediate term, although the ceasefire remains highly fragile and could break down rapidly with minimal advanced warning.
• On 11 April, the US began engaging in Pakistan-mediated talks with Iran. However, on 12 April, the talks ended without an agreement.
• Despite the failure of the Islamabad post-ceasefire talks to produce a peace agreement, neither side has declared an end to talks or the ongoing two-week truce.
• Sources indicated on 14 April that a second round of post-ceasefire talks may occur later this week.
• On 12 April, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Iraqi Ambassador following alleged low-scale drone attacks targeting Gulf States that are claimed to have originated from Iraq.
• On 11 April, unconfirmed Bahraini media reports stated that one attack drone was intercepted over the past 24 hours in Bahrain.
• As of 14 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is open, but with a high rate of flight cancellations. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains unused by almost all carriers, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 8 Apr 2026 – 10 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• Following the agreement of a 15-day ceasefire on 7 April, US and Iranian officials are scheduled to begin negotiations in Pakistan. Iranian forces have largely paused their attacks on Gulf states, although occasional reports of drone launches have been recorded on 8 and 9 April.
• As of 10 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is partially open, with operations gradually resuming. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 7 Apr 2026 – 8 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• On the evening of 7 April, US and Iranian officials agreed to a two-week ceasefire, in a deal brokered by Pakistani officials. The agreement was announced shortly before the deadline set by US President Donald Trump. The deal involves an immediate cessation of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran.
• Despite the deal, several Iranian attacks on Gulf states have been recorded on 7-8 April. This is likely due to the breakdown of command and control in Iran caused by US and Israeli strikes.
• Late 7 April, vehicular movement was once again suspended along the King Fahd Causeway connecting Saudi Arabia to Bahrain due to a missile threat, before reopening early 8 April.
• As of 8 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 2 Apr 2026 – 7 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• On 2 April, two US strikes targeted the newly built B1 bridge linking Tehran to Karaj. In response, Iranian media published a list of major bridges across the region. The list includes the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Sea Bridge in Kuwait, King Fahd Causeway linking Saudi Arabia to Bahrain, the Sheikh Zayed Bridge and Sheikh Khalifa Bridge in the UAE, and the King Hussein Bridge, the Damia Bridge, and the Abdoun Bridge in Jordan. On 7 March, the King Fahd Causeway was closed due to the threat of Iranian attacks.
• On 7 April, the Israeli military warned the people of Iran not to use trains, with their X account stating: “Dear Citizens, for the sake of your security, we kindly request that from this moment until 21:00 Iran time, you refrain from using and travelling by train throughout Iran. Your presence on trains and near railway lines endangers your life.” This almost certainly increases the likelihood that Iran will target rail infrastructure in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
• On 5 April, US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, calling on authorities to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and agree to a deal on ending the conflict. President Trump later added that the deadline to reach an agreement would be 20:00 EST on 7 April (00:00 UTC on 8 April).
• Following the US ultimatum, Iranian officials threatened to “irreversibly destroy” critical national infrastructure (CNI) in the region, including power plants and water systems, in response to potential US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
• Multiple CNI sites were struck in Kuwait, including Al Ahmadi Port Refinery, a water and desalination plant, and Shuaiba oil complex.
• Bahraini authorities noted that an Iranian drone attack had likely damaged the GPIC petrochemicals plant. Further damage was also reported at a BAPCO Energies storage facility.
• Multiple civilian and CNI sites were targeted in the UAE, including buildings belonging to the US company Oracle in Dubai, Habshan gas plant, an Emirates Global Aluminium plant near Abu Dhabi, Borouge petrochemicals plant, and the Sharjah telecom building. On 3 April, two fires were reported at the Royal Airwing building at Dubai International Airport (DXB / OMDB).
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 7 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 31 Mar 2026 – 2 Apr 2026

Executive Summary

• On 31 March, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it would attack US companies in the region starting on 1 April in retaliation for attacks on Iran. The IRGC published a list of 19 companies with corporate offices in the region: Microsoft, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Nvidia, Intel, IBM, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Boeing, Cisco, Dell, HP, Oracle, Palantir, JPMorgan, General Electric, G42, and Spire Solutions.
• The IRGC’s threat was followed by an additional drone strike on an Amazon data centre in Bahrain, air defences being activated over Dubai, and “minor” damage being reported in the Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD), UAE, due to debris.
• On 1 April, President Trump gave a televised address in which he said that he expects the war to last another two to three weeks, and reiterated serious threats against Iran if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz.
• Air defences were activated in Bahrain on 1-2 April, with the IRGC Navy claiming to have targeted the “Al-Hidd Industrial City, Bahrain” and “Remaining aluminium infrastructure, Bahrain”.
• In the UAE, one Bangladeshi national was killed on 1 April after debris from an intercepted drone reportedly fell in the Al-Rifaa area. Interceptions have been reported over Dubai and Abu Dhabi on 2 April, with Abu Dhabi authorities reporting “minor” damage in the Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD) following debris from a missile interception. The IRGC Navy claimed that attacks were launched against “Abu Dhabi American Steel Industries”.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 2 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 30 Mar 2026 – 31 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 30 March, US President Donald Trump threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and desalination plants if a “deal is not shortly reached” and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately opened. Moreover, an Iranian Health Ministry official claimed on 31 March that a desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island has been out of service since an alleged attack on 7 March.
• President Trump’s threats and Iran’s claims of Qeshm’s desalination plant being out of order almost certainly raise the risk of future Iranian retaliation strikes targeting CNI and desalination plants in the Gulf States. Following President Trump’s initial ultimatum earlier in March, the IRGC-linked FarsNews Agency published a list of potential targets for retaliation strikes, including power and/or desalination plants in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.
• Early 31 March, a spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defence stated that Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a total of seven ballistic missiles launched towards Riyadh.
• The US Embassy in Qatar published an alert on 30 March, stating, “[t]he U.S. Embassy in Doha lifted its shelter in place advisory.”
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets, and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 31 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 27 Mar 2026 – 30 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the USS Tripoli, which has embarked around 2,200 Marines, arrived in the CENTCOM area of responsibility on 27 March. A further 2,000 US Army paratroopers have reportedly been ordered to deploy to the region, with the Pentagon also alleged by US media to be considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops.
• The Houthis’ entry into the conflict on 28 March, marked by strikes against Israel, raises the risk of a broader threat across the Arabian Peninsula if the group escalates its involvement further. The Houthis are almost certainly the most capable Iran-backed proxy force in the region. During the 2014-2022 civil war in Yemen, the Houthis launched multiple attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including international airports and oil and gas infrastructure.
• On 28 March, civil aviation authorities stated that Kuwait International Airport (KWI / OKKK) was impacted by several attack drones, resulting in “significant” damage to the radar system, but no injuries. Another attack on 29 March targeted a service building at an unspecified power and water desalination plant, killing one Indian national.
• Following strikes in the UAE overnight 28-29 March, officials in Abu Dhabi stated that the fire department was dealing with three fires in the Khalifa Industrial Zone caused by ballistic missile debris. At least five people were injured. Emirates Global Aluminium also reported that multiple employees were injured and that the plant sustained “significant damage”.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets, and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 30 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 25 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 27 March, US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days to 6 April. The ultimatum initially led to Iranian threats against desalination and power plants across the region.
• A combined attack drone and cruise missile attack led to material damage at Mubarak al Kabeer Port in Kuwait, with no injuries recorded, and an attack drone strike against Shuwaikh Port also resulted in material damage but no injuries.
• On 26 March, at least two people were killed, and multiple others were injured when debris from a ballistic missile interception fell onto Sweihan Road, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Pakistani, Indian, Emirati and Jordanian citizens were reportedly among the casualties.
• The potential entry of Saudi Arabia into the war against Iran, which remains reportedly under consideration in Riyadh, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets, and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 27 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 23 Mar 2026 – 25 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 23 March, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is strongly considering entering the war against Iran. With Iranian attacks against the Gulf States having been so significant, Saudi Arabia likely calculates that deterrence against Iran may need to be re-established with offensive operations. The entry of Saudi Arabia, in addition to potentially other Gulf States such as the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, into the war against Iran, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran into these countries.
• A rare storm system has moved through the region this week, leading to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
• On 24 March, Amazon Web Services (AWS) stated that it had been “disrupted” following attack drone activity in Bahrain, although it is unconfirmed whether Amazon’s Bahrain facility was directly hit by an attack drone or if the disruption was due to nearby strikes.
• On 25 March, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts with South Korea, Italy, Belgium, and China following damage to key production facilities caused by an Iranian ballistic missile strike overnight 18-19 March.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drone and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 25 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 20 Mar 2026 – 23 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• In response to a 48-hour ultimatum delivered by US President Donald Trump to Iran on 21 March to open the Strait of Hormuz, or the US would conduct strikes against Iranian power plants, Tehran issued threats to “irreversibly destroy” critical national infrastructure across the region, including desalination plants. On 23 March, President Trump stated that the ultimatum would be extended for a “FIVE DAY PERIOD” due to claimed productive talks.
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media published a list of power and desalination plants that would be targeted in retaliation strikes, in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.
• The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes. Sustained attacks on desalination facilities are likely to have significant impacts on national water security in the Gulf States.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drone and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 23 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; and Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 18 Mar 2026 – 20 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported on 20 March that its spokesman was killed in overnight strikes by the US and Israel. This follows a series of high-profile “assassinations” of senior Iranian military and political figures, which have triggered retaliation attacks from Iran.
• On 20 March, Iran issued a threat to US and Israeli officials and military personnel, stating they will not be safe in “resorts and tourist centres around the world.”
• In retaliation for the Israeli attack against the Iranian South Pars gas field on 18 March, Iranian forces conducted significant strikes targeting oil and gas facilities across the region.
• UAE authorities announced that they had dismantled a terrorist network operating in the country, which had links to Hezbollah and Iran.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 20 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; and Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 17 Mar 2026 – 18 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 18 March, Iran issued an evacuation warning for oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, threatening that they would be targeted in “in the coming hours”. The warning follows gas facilities at Iran’s South Pars field being reportedly struck by Israel a few hours earlier. Specifically, the warning was directed towards: Saudi Arabia’s Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex, the UAE’s Al Hosn Gas Field, and Qatar’s Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex, Mesaieed Holding Company and Ras Laffan Refinery.
• On 17 March, Kuwaiti authorities reported two people injured by debris over the previous 24 hours, following attacks involving two ballistic missiles and 13 attack drones.
• Saudi authorities stated that two attack drones were intercepted on approach to the Diplomatic Quarter in Riyadh on 18 March, with a third attack drone also announced as intercepted over Riyadh.
• Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, stated that deployed Australian troops were safe after an Iranian projectile hit an area near Al Minhad Air Base on 18 March, which is around 24km south of Dubai.
• Travel agents in Oman are reportedly recording a significant surge in interest for getaways for UAE residents during the upcoming Eid Al Fitr holidays. Heavy traffic is expected at key crossings such as the Hatta border crossing.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 18 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 16 Mar 2026 – 17 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 17 March, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, stated that Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, and the commander of the paramilitary militia Basij, Gholamreza Soleimani, had been killed in overnight strikes. If confirmed, the killing of two senior leadership figures in Iran is likely to trigger an increased rate of Iranian strikes across the region in retaliation.
• The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. 16 March recorded the highest daily number of combined missiles and drones targeting Saudi Arabia, at 72.
• The UAE’s Ministry of Defence claimed that ten ballistic missiles and 45 attack drones had been intercepted so far on 17 March at 11:35 UTC. At least three explosions were reportedly heard in Dubai; and authorities stated that a Pakistani national was killed by debris in the Bani Yas area of Abu Dhabi.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 17 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 15 Mar 2026 – 16 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 16 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that air defences had intercepted at least 64 attack drones in Riyadh and Eastern Province. The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. The areas most targeted are Riyadh, Al-Kharj (where the Prince Sultan Air Base is located), and the Eastern Province (where key Saudi oil refineries are located).
• Early 16 March, an attack drone struck fuel tanks in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport (DXB), prompting a temporary suspension of operations at the airport. DXB resumed operations later on 16 March.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 16 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 14 Mar 2026 – 15 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Iranian officials have reiterated threats to target US and Israeli private companies across the region, characterising these attacks as “retaliatory” for potential future US-Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure.
• On 15 March, Iran reportedly fired six missiles and 34 drones against targets located in Saudi Arabia. Since 12 March, the volume of Iranian strikes targeting Saudi Arabia has increased.
• Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 15 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 13 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
• On 14 March, Iranian media linked to the IRGC has advised residents of the UAE to evacuate ports, labelling them “legitimate targets”, following US strikes in Kharg Island. In a follow-up statement, the same media outlet warned residents to “immediately move away” from Jebel Ali, Khalifa, and Fujairah port areas due to likely impending attacks.
• Overnight 13-14 March, Iranian officials claimed to have struck two Citibank locations in Manama and Dubai with attack drones.
• Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 14 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 12 Mar 2026 – 13 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March.
• On 12 March, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media stated that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
• On 13 March, Dubai officials reported minor damage to a building in the Dubai International Financial Centre caused by debris from a successful interception.
• On 13 March, the Omani authorities reported the downing of two drones in the Suhar Governorate. One of the drones fell in the Al-Awahi Industrial Area, resulting in the death of two expatriates and several injuries.
• Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 13 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 11 Mar 2026 – 12 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March.
• As of 12 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• In Dubai, UAE, 11-12 March attack drones impacts were recorded in the Al Bada’a area and onto the façade of a building on Sheikh Zayed Road, causing no injuries. An attack drone also hit the Address Creek Harbour hotel, sparking a fire that was brought under control and causing no injuries.
• On 11 March, Iranian drone strikes hit fuel tanks in Salalah, Oman, setting off a large blaze. Omani authorities said there were no injuries.
• In Kuwait on 12 March, an attack drone strike injured at least two people after impacting a residential building in Mangaf, southern Kuwait.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 10 Mar 2026 – 11 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• On 11 March, a spokesman for KACHQ, the unified command HQ of the Iranian Armed Forces, declared that US and/or Israel-linked “economic centres and banks” will now be targeted, warning that “people of the region should not be within a one-kilometre radius of banks”. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media released a list of offices and infrastructure linked to the US and Israel, which included companies such as Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia and Oracle. Moreover, the KACHQ stated that Iran will now move from a claimed policy of “reciprocal hits” after attacks to continuous strikes on its adversaries.
• As of 11 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• Qatar Airways announced a limited flight schedule to and from Doha, Qatar, on 13 and 14 March, dependent on the airspace reopening.
• In Dubai, UAE, four people were injured on the morning of 11 March, after “two drones fell in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport (DXB)”. The Dubai Media Office added that air traffic is operating as normal.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 09 Mar 2026 – 10 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• As of 10 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• Overnight 9-10 March, one person was killed, and eight were injured in an Iranian attack drone strike on a residential building in Manama, Bahrain.
• The frequency of Iranian attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia is highly likely increasing, in comparison to the earlier phases of the conflict when Saudi Arabia was targeted significantly less than other countries in the Arabian Peninsula.
• A drone strike on 10 March at the UAE’s state-run ADNOC’s Ruwais refinery resulted in a fire, leading to the closure of the facility. Iranian strikes against oil and gas infrastructure have likely escalated in retaliation for Israeli strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 08 Mar 2026 – 09 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• As of 9 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• Overnight 8-9 March, at least 32 people were injured in the Sitra area south of Manama, following an alleged drone strike on a residential area. All those injured were Bahraini citizens. Contrary to initial reports, videos shared on social media show an interceptor missile mistakenly striking the area. The exact cause of the injuries remains unconfirmed.
• On 8 March, Saudi officials reported that two people were killed and several more injured by a strike on a residential area in Al-Kharj. These are the first reported casualties recorded in Saudi Arabia since the start of the conflict.
• On 9 March, Iranian officials selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the regime’s new Supreme Leader. The appointment constitutes a victory for the hardline political and religious factions of the Islamic Republic, and for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US officials have threatened to target Khamenei.​

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This week’s Global Intelligence Briefing covers the increased terrorism threat in the United States following the outbreak of war with Iran, nationwide Bolsonaro rallies in Brazil, Ukrainian frontline advances, US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the resulting regional conflict, Israeli operations in Lebanon, Iranian attacks across the Gulf, Pakistan’s open conflict with the Afghan Taliban, and Shia protests across South Asia.

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Iran’s shift to the targeting of critical infrastructure and other civilian profile targets is likely reflective of an attempt to increase economic disruption across the Gulf, pressure regional governments that host US military bases and support operations, and demonstrate Iran’s capacity to impose widespread costs across the region despite being under sustained pressure from US and Israeli joint strikes. Iran may have also calculated that attacks of this magnitude may undermine the long-term presence of the US military in the Middle East by increasing the political and security costs for host nations and raising domestic pressure within Gulf states to distance themselves from US military operations.

Iran is also likely attempting to pressure Washington and Tel Aviv by provoking international condemnation and economic pressures on a global scale. Attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, followed by the suspension of operations at these sites, combined with a de facto Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, will almost certainly trigger economic shocks and volatility in global energy markets, as well as disruptions to maritime trade and energy supply chains. This strategy is likely to increase international pressure and could help to isolate Washington.

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Current US and Israeli military operations mark a significant escalation from Operation Midnight Hammer, which involved preliminary strikes on Iranian conventional military capabilities to enable a US bombing run on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Furthermore, the scale of the US’s current force posture and forward positioning of military assets is the largest buildup in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Iran’s current strategy is likely aimed not only at striking Israel and US military forces but also at generating widespread economic disruption, undermining US regional security guarantees and restoring deterrence by positioning itself as a resilient power capable of inflicting widespread damage and costs despite suffering major losses, evidenced by its attacks on Arab nations and attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

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Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 06 MARCH 2026

Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat increasingly used by regional airlines as a hub for relief flights, including services operated by Qatar Airways.

Israel’s airspace continues to be closed to most civilian traffic. Access is currently limited to military operations and civilian flights that have received prior authorisation.

Jordan’s airspace remains open; however, operators are being advised to plan for potential delays and carry additional fuel as a precaution.

• Saudi Arabia: Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf  – Expires 2200 UTC | 5 March
• Iran: Total closure – Expires 0830 UTC | 7 March
• Iraq: Total closure – Expires 0900 UTC | 7 March
• Qatar: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 5 March
• Bahrain: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 5 March
• Kuwait: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 5March
• Syria: Total closure – Expires 2100 UTC | 7 March
• United Arab Emirates: Closure by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones – All expire 1200 UTC | 6 March
• Israel: Total closure – Expires 1000 UTC | 9 March
• Azerbaijan: Southern sector closed – Expires 1939 UTC | 5 March

Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 05 MARCH 2026

Intelligence cut off: 08:47 UTC 04 MARCH 2026

We note that Oman airspace remains open. In addition, Jordan has removed its nighttime ban.

• Saudi Arabia: Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf  – Expires 2200 UTC | 4 March
• Iran: Total closure – Expires 0830 UTC | 7 March
• Iraq: Total closure – Expires 0900 UTC | 7 March
• Qatar: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 4 March
• Bahrain: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 4 March
• Kuwait: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 4 March
• Syria: Total closure – Expires 2100 UTC | 7 March
• United Arab Emirates: Partially closed – Expires 1200 UTC | 4 March
• Israel: Total closure – Expires 1000 UTC | 9 March

Solace Global is currently able to evacuate personnel from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Israel. If you require assistance, our security team is available 24/7 to discuss secure transportation.

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Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 03 MARCH 2026

Gulf States Ground Evacuation Routes and Border Crossings Map

Israel Ground Evacuation Routes and Border Crossings Map

Please Note:

All ground movements are subject to current immigration and border regulations. Travellers must confirm entry requirements in advance, including visa eligibility, residency status, and passport validity. Border policies and processing times may change with little notice.

Evacuations conducted by Solace Global are assessed case by case, based on the evacuee’s citizenship and the entry requirements of the receiving country. Route selection depends on border accessibility, security conditions, and onward travel options.

Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 03 MARCH 2026

We note that Oman (OOMM) airspace remains open.

• Saudi Arabia (OEJD) — Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf  — Expires 2200 UTC | 3 March
• Iran (OIIX) — Total closure — Expires 0830 UTC | 7 March
• Iraq (ORBB) — Total closure — Expires 0900 UTC | 4 March
• Qatar (OTDF) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 3 March
• Bahrain (OBBB) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 3 March
• Kuwait (OKAC) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 3 March
• Syria (OSTT) — Total closure — Expires 2100 UTC | 3 March
• United Arab Emirates (OMAE) — Partially closed — Expires 1200 UTC | 4 March
• Israel (LLLL) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 6 March
• Jordan (OJAC) — Closed daily from 1500 to 0600 — Expires 0600 UTC | 5 March

Solace Global is currently able to evacuate personnel from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Israel. If you require assistance, our security team is available 24/7 to discuss secure transportation.

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Intelligence cut off: 16:30 UTC 02 MARCH 2026

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted ballistic missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
• Iran has further escalated strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, including oil and gas infrastructure, in addition to strikes targeting US military facilities.
• Airspaces remain closed across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, as of 2 March.
• In Kuwait, the Doha West power station, Mina Al Ahmadi Refinery, and US Embassy in Kuwait City were impacted. Most drones were reportedly intercepted near Rumaithiya and ⁠Salwa neighbourhoods.
• In Bahrain, a foreign vessel in Salman Industrial City and a US-flagged tanker in the Port of Bahrain were impacted. Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) was targeted on 1 March by an Iranian drone, causing material damage but no casualties.
• In Qatar, air defences intercepted attacks reportedly aimed at civilian infrastructure, including Hamad International Airport (DOH / OTHH). A water tank in Ras Laffan Industrial City was also impacted.
• The UAE has been the second most targeted country behind Israel. Further explosions were reported in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai on 2 March.
• Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term, and while likely continuing to prioritise the targeting of US military installations, they will also likely continue against civilian-profile targets due to the escalation in Iranian targeting patterns.
• The UK FCDO maintains its travel advice to advise against all but essential travel to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 UTC 02 MARCH 2026

• Cyprus: Airspace Open
• Egypt: Airspace open. Israeli passport holders NOT permitted entry.
• Jordan: Partial closure on a daily basis, between UTC 1500 and 0600, until March 5th. Israeli passport holders must use this route, open to all other passport holders.
• Saudi Arabia: Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf
• Bahrain: Total closure
• Israel: Total closure
• Iran: Total closure
• Iraq: Total closure
• Kuwait: Total closure
• Qatar: Total closure
• Syria: Total closure
• United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates (OMAE) airspace is not outright closed, but remains restricted by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones, effectively limiting commercial air traffic.

Intelligence cut off: 12:30 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

• Avoid all non-essential travel to the Middle East.
• Travellers should follow shelter-in-place orders and advisories, particularly in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
• Do not conduct travel to the airport until shelter-in-place orders or recommendations are lifted. Once lifted, ensure that booked flights are still running before conducting travel to the airport.
• Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if situated in the Middle East.
• Travellers in Israel should familiarise themselves with the nearest air raid shelter and ensure that they have downloaded applications that provide early warning of incoming threats, such as Home Front Command or Red Alert.
• Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
• Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
• Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes, terrorist attacks, and civil unrest.
• Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
• Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
• Closely monitor alerts from a security provider if available, trusted local news reports and government alerts.

Intelligence cut off: 12:30 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

On 28 February, Iran conducted ballistic missile strikes targeting United States military facilities in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain in response to joint United States and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The strikes targeted US military installations across the Gulf region, including facilities associated with force posture, command and control, and logistics.

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Intelligence cut off: 08:10 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

At approximately 10:00 Iranian local time on 28 February, the US and Israel conducted strikes against Iran. The strikes followed weeks of escalating regional tensions, large-scale US military build-up across the region and Tehran’s refusal to concede to US demands regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

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