Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03

Headlines From This Week

Winter Storms in Europe – At least nine people were killed after Storm Friederike hit western Europe. Hurricane level winds shut down transportation systems in parts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Adverse weather conditions were reported from the United Kingdom to as far away as Romania.
Assassination in Kosovo – Prominent Kosovo Serb Politician, Oliver Ivanović, was assassinated outside of his party’s headquarters on 16 January. This murder came on the same day that Belgrade and Pristina began talks on normalising ties after a break of more than a year. Ivanović was an opponent of the Belgrade-backed Serb party in Kosovo. His death may further complicate regional relations.
Significant Earthquake off Peru Coast – On 14 January 2018, a magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Peru. At least two people have been reported dead, with dozens more left injured or homeless with a state of emergency declared in the affected zones. Many have been left without power and roads have been damaged; international travel remains uninterrupted.
Volcanic Activity in Southeast Asia – Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia has shown continued activity, spewing volcanic ash 2,000 metres into the air on 15 January but has since settled. Activity at Mayon Volcano, Philippines has forced 38,000 people from their homes. Thousands have been evacuated from islands surrounding Kadovar, Papua New Guinea, as scientists suggest that a volcanic eruption could be imminent.
Twin Suicide Bombings in Maiduguri – A double suicide bombing at a market in the northern Nigerian city of Maiduguri killed at least 12 and injured 48 others on 17 January. One attacker was male and the other female. Boko Haram are the most likely culprits of this attack; the Islamic insurgency group has killed more than 20,000 people in its nine-year insurgency.
Clashes at Tripoli Airport – At least 20 people were killed after clashes at Tripoli Mitiga Airport, with another 63 injured. Fighting started on 15 January. The Special Deterrent Force, a militia which controls the airport, clashed with a rival militia led by local strongman Bashir al-Baqara; both militias are ostensibly allied with the UN-backed government. Reports suggest that al-Baqara was fighting to release his men held at a nearby prison. All flights were diverted to Misrata Airport, though operations have reportedly resumed at Mitiga.
Tensions in the Nile Region – Tensions continue to rise in the Nile region as Sudan sent more troops to its border with Eritrea, partly in reaction to the reported presence of Egyptian troops in Eritrea. Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia on one side, and Egypt and Eritrea on the other, have deteriorated recently, as all sides seek to maintain, or increase, control over precious natural resources.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Kabila Rally in the DRC – Catholics in the Democratic Republic of Congo called for a fresh rally against the continued premiership of President Kabila for 21 January. New Year’s Eve protests against Kabila’s rule led to the deaths of at least six people. Significant and violent unrest should be expected in Kinshasa especially.
‘Women’s March’ Rallies – The 2018 Women’s March, planned as a follow up to the 2017 march, is due to take place on 20-21 January 2017. The primary event will take place on 21 January 2018 in Las Vegas, United States, with other significant marches occurring in New York City and Washington DC. Marches of different sizes have been confirmed in at least 31 different countries/territories, including dozens of marches across the United States.
World Economic Forum – The annual World Economic Forum conference is due to take place in Davos, Switzerland between 23-26 January 2018. Many heads of states due to attend, including President Trump. Enhanced security measures and the unrest should be expected in the lead up to, and during, the event.

Significant Dates & Events

20 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
21 January – Hong Kong Marathon
22 January – Inauguration of George Weah as Liberia’s new president
24 January – Unification Day, Romania
25-26 January – India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit, New Delhi, India
25-27 January – Opposition rallies planned in Honduras as the new president is sworn in
25-28 January – Winter X Games take place in Aspen, Colorado
25 January – Revolution Day, Egypt
26 January – Australia Day, Australia
26 January – Republic Day, India
26 January – Second Round of Czech presidential elections
26 January – National Resistance Movement (NRM) Liberation Day, Uganda

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 03 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.