Increased Militancy in Uganda in 2024

Throughout 2023, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a militant group, has escalated its attacks in Uganda. Particularly noteworthy is the incident in June 2023 when the ADF targeted a school in Mpondwe, resulting in the tragic deaths of 41 civilians, mostly students. Another significant incident occurred in October 2023, when the ADF attacked a Ugandan national park, leading to the killing of two British newlyweds and their guide.

As part of our comprehensive 2024 Intelligence Forecast, this analysis explores the escalating threat of the ADF in Uganda and the challenges for Ugandan authorities in 2024.

The ADF has historically targeted Ugandan security services since its establishment in 1995, initially formed to oppose the government of Uganda under President Yoweri Museveni. Over time, the group has evolved and embraced more extremist motivations, particularly leaning towards Islamic extremism. This shift is evident in a rising trend of attacks on civilian targets, with an estimated 80% of ADF attacks in June 2023 focusing on civilians.

While the ADF initially operated mainly in western Uganda, it has shifted its operations to the eastern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), particularly in the border province of North Kivu. This geographical shift allows the ADF to exploit border areas, facilitating cross-border attacks into Uganda and providing a relative safe haven in the DRC.

In this report:

  • Increased Militancy in Uganda in 2024
    • Surge in ADF attacks on Uganda in 2023
  • Assessment and 2024 Forecast
    • 2024 forecast on ADF’s evolution and threat to regional stability
    • Leadership changes and radical shift
    • High-profile attacks and recognition in 2023
    • Connections to transregional groups and foreign financing
    • Recruitment and media exposure
Increased militancy in Uganda Report mock up

Continued in full report…


More from the 2024 Intelligence Forecast

The Sahel Deterioration and Violence in West Africa in 2024

South Africa’s Economic Future Amidst Threats of Civil Unrest in 2024

Global Supply Chains at Risk in the South China Sea in 2024

The Sahel, characterised by growing instability triggered by poverty, food insecurity, water scarcity and challenges presented by terrorism, rebel groups and poor governance, faces threats of further deterioration of security in 2024.

Civil unrest is expected to cause significant disruption in South Africa in 2024. Despite this, many companies are increasingly choosing to expand or establish a presence in the country for various compelling reasons.

China’s aggression in the South China Sea has prompted international condemnation and spurred efforts to finalise a non-aggression pact with claimant territories. Lack of co-operation could lead to key supply chain disruptions in 2024.


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