Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence and Travel Advice

INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 23 Mar 2026 – 25 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 25 March.
• On 23 March, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is strongly considering entering the war against Iran. With Iranian attacks against the Gulf States having been so significant, Saudi Arabia likely calculates that deterrence against Iran may need to be re-established with offensive operations. The entry of Saudi Arabia, in addition to potentially other Gulf States such as the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, into the war against Iran, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran into these countries.
• A rare storm system has moved through the region this week, leading to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
• On 24 March, Amazon Web Services (AWS) stated that it had been “disrupted” following attack drone activity in Bahrain, although it is unconfirmed whether Amazon’s Bahrain facility was directly hit by an attack drone or if the disruption was due to nearby strikes.
• On 25 March, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts with South Korea, Italy, Belgium, and China following damage to key production facilities caused by an Iranian ballistic missile strike overnight 18-19 March.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drone and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 25 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 20 Mar 2026 – 23 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 23 March.
• In response to a 48-hour ultimatum delivered by US President Donald Trump to Iran on 21 March to open the Strait of Hormuz, or the US would conduct strikes against Iranian power plants, Tehran issued threats to “irreversibly destroy” critical national infrastructure across the region, including desalination plants. On 23 March, President Trump stated that the ultimatum would be extended for a “FIVE DAY PERIOD” due to claimed productive talks.
• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media published a list of power and desalination plants that would be targeted in retaliation strikes, in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.
• The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes. Sustained attacks on desalination facilities are likely to have significant impacts on national water security in the Gulf States.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drone and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 23 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; and Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 18 Mar 2026 – 20 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 20 March.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported on 20 March that its spokesman was killed in overnight strikes by the US and Israel. This follows a series of high-profile “assassinations” of senior Iranian military and political figures, which have triggered retaliation attacks from Iran.
• On 20 March, Iran issued a threat to US and Israeli officials and military personnel, stating they will not be safe in “resorts and tourist centres around the world.”
• In retaliation for the Israeli attack against the Iranian South Pars gas field on 18 March, Iranian forces conducted significant strikes targeting oil and gas facilities across the region.
• UAE authorities announced that they had dismantled a terrorist network operating in the country, which had links to Hezbollah and Iran.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 20 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; and Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 17 Mar 2026 – 18 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 18 March.
• On 18 March, Iran issued an evacuation warning for oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, threatening that they would be targeted in “in the coming hours”. The warning follows gas facilities at Iran’s South Pars field being reportedly struck by Israel a few hours earlier. Specifically, the warning was directed towards: Saudi Arabia’s Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex, the UAE’s Al Hosn Gas Field, and Qatar’s Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex, Mesaieed Holding Company and Ras Laffan Refinery.
• On 17 March, Kuwaiti authorities reported two people injured by debris over the previous 24 hours, following attacks involving two ballistic missiles and 13 attack drones.
• Saudi authorities stated that two attack drones were intercepted on approach to the Diplomatic Quarter in Riyadh on 18 March, with a third attack drone also announced as intercepted over Riyadh.
• Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, stated that deployed Australian troops were safe after an Iranian projectile hit an area near Al Minhad Air Base on 18 March, which is around 24km south of Dubai.
• Travel agents in Oman are reportedly recording a significant surge in interest for getaways for UAE residents during the upcoming Eid Al Fitr holidays. Heavy traffic is expected at key crossings such as the Hatta border crossing.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 18 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 16 Mar 2026 – 17 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 17 March.
• On 17 March, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, stated that Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, and the commander of the paramilitary militia Basij, Gholamreza Soleimani, had been killed in overnight strikes. If confirmed, the killing of two senior leadership figures in Iran is likely to trigger an increased rate of Iranian strikes across the region in retaliation.
• The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. 16 March recorded the highest daily number of combined missiles and drones targeting Saudi Arabia, at 72.
• The UAE’s Ministry of Defence claimed that ten ballistic missiles and 45 attack drones had been intercepted so far on 17 March at 11:35 UTC. At least three explosions were reportedly heard in Dubai; and authorities stated that a Pakistani national was killed by debris in the Bani Yas area of Abu Dhabi.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 17 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 15 Mar 2026 – 16 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 16 March.
• On 16 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that air defences had intercepted at least 64 attack drones in Riyadh and Eastern Province. The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. The areas most targeted are Riyadh, Al-Kharj (where the Prince Sultan Air Base is located), and the Eastern Province (where key Saudi oil refineries are located).
• Early 16 March, an attack drone struck fuel tanks in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport (DXB), prompting a temporary suspension of operations at the airport. DXB resumed operations later on 16 March.
• Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 16 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 14 Mar 2026 – 15 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 15 March.
• Iranian officials have reiterated threats to target US and Israeli private companies across the region, characterising these attacks as “retaliatory” for potential future US-Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure.
• On 15 March, Iran reportedly fired six missiles and 34 drones against targets located in Saudi Arabia. Since 12 March, the volume of Iranian strikes targeting Saudi Arabia has increased.
• Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 15 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 13 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 14 March.
• The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
• On 14 March, Iranian media linked to the IRGC has advised residents of the UAE to evacuate ports, labelling them “legitimate targets”, following US strikes in Kharg Island. In a follow-up statement, the same media outlet warned residents to “immediately move away” from Jebel Ali, Khalifa, and Fujairah port areas due to likely impending attacks.
• Overnight 13-14 March, Iranian officials claimed to have struck two Citibank locations in Manama and Dubai with attack drones.
• Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 14 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 12 Mar 2026 – 13 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 13 March.
• The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March.
• On 12 March, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media stated that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
• On 13 March, Dubai officials reported minor damage to a building in the Dubai International Financial Centre caused by debris from a successful interception.
• On 13 March, the Omani authorities reported the downing of two drones in the Suhar Governorate. One of the drones fell in the Al-Awahi Industrial Area, resulting in the death of two expatriates and several injuries.
• Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• As of 13 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 11 Mar 2026 – 12 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 12 March.
• The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March.
• As of 12 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• In Dubai, UAE, 11-12 March attack drones impacts were recorded in the Al Bada’a area and onto the façade of a building on Sheikh Zayed Road, causing no injuries. An attack drone also hit the Address Creek Harbour hotel, sparking a fire that was brought under control and causing no injuries.
• On 11 March, Iranian drone strikes hit fuel tanks in Salalah, Oman, setting off a large blaze. Omani authorities said there were no injuries.
• In Kuwait on 12 March, an attack drone strike injured at least two people after impacting a residential building in Mangaf, southern Kuwait.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 10 Mar 2026 – 11 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 11 March.
• On 11 March, a spokesman for KACHQ, the unified command HQ of the Iranian Armed Forces, declared that US and/or Israel-linked “economic centres and banks” will now be targeted, warning that “people of the region should not be within a one-kilometre radius of banks”. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media released a list of offices and infrastructure linked to the US and Israel, which included companies such as Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia and Oracle. Moreover, the KACHQ stated that Iran will now move from a claimed policy of “reciprocal hits” after attacks to continuous strikes on its adversaries.
• As of 11 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• Qatar Airways announced a limited flight schedule to and from Doha, Qatar, on 13 and 14 March, dependent on the airspace reopening.
• In Dubai, UAE, four people were injured on the morning of 11 March, after “two drones fell in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport (DXB)”. The Dubai Media Office added that air traffic is operating as normal.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 09 Mar 2026 – 10 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 10 March.
• As of 10 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• Overnight 9-10 March, one person was killed, and eight were injured in an Iranian attack drone strike on a residential building in Manama, Bahrain.
• The frequency of Iranian attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia is highly likely increasing, in comparison to the earlier phases of the conflict when Saudi Arabia was targeted significantly less than other countries in the Arabian Peninsula.
• A drone strike on 10 March at the UAE’s state-run ADNOC’s Ruwais refinery resulted in a fire, leading to the closure of the facility. Iranian strikes against oil and gas infrastructure have likely escalated in retaliation for Israeli strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure.

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INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 08 Mar 2026 – 09 Mar 2026

Executive Summary

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
• As of 9 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
• Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
• The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
• Overnight 8-9 March, at least 32 people were injured in the Sitra area south of Manama, following an alleged drone strike on a residential area. All those injured were Bahraini citizens. Contrary to initial reports, videos shared on social media show an interceptor missile mistakenly striking the area. The exact cause of the injuries remains unconfirmed.
• On 8 March, Saudi officials reported that two people were killed and several more injured by a strike on a residential area in Al-Kharj. These are the first reported casualties recorded in Saudi Arabia since the start of the conflict.
• On 9 March, Iranian officials selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the regime’s new Supreme Leader. The appointment constitutes a victory for the hardline political and religious factions of the Islamic Republic, and for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US officials have threatened to target Khamenei.​

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This week’s Global Intelligence Briefing covers the increased terrorism threat in the United States following the outbreak of war with Iran, nationwide Bolsonaro rallies in Brazil, Ukrainian frontline advances, US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the resulting regional conflict, Israeli operations in Lebanon, Iranian attacks across the Gulf, Pakistan’s open conflict with the Afghan Taliban, and Shia protests across South Asia.

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Iran’s shift to the targeting of critical infrastructure and other civilian profile targets is likely reflective of an attempt to increase economic disruption across the Gulf, pressure regional governments that host US military bases and support operations, and demonstrate Iran’s capacity to impose widespread costs across the region despite being under sustained pressure from US and Israeli joint strikes. Iran may have also calculated that attacks of this magnitude may undermine the long-term presence of the US military in the Middle East by increasing the political and security costs for host nations and raising domestic pressure within Gulf states to distance themselves from US military operations.

Iran is also likely attempting to pressure Washington and Tel Aviv by provoking international condemnation and economic pressures on a global scale. Attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, followed by the suspension of operations at these sites, combined with a de facto Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, will almost certainly trigger economic shocks and volatility in global energy markets, as well as disruptions to maritime trade and energy supply chains. This strategy is likely to increase international pressure and could help to isolate Washington.

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Current US and Israeli military operations mark a significant escalation from Operation Midnight Hammer, which involved preliminary strikes on Iranian conventional military capabilities to enable a US bombing run on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Furthermore, the scale of the US’s current force posture and forward positioning of military assets is the largest buildup in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Iran’s current strategy is likely aimed not only at striking Israel and US military forces but also at generating widespread economic disruption, undermining US regional security guarantees and restoring deterrence by positioning itself as a resilient power capable of inflicting widespread damage and costs despite suffering major losses, evidenced by its attacks on Arab nations and attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

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Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 06 MARCH 2026

Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat increasingly used by regional airlines as a hub for relief flights, including services operated by Qatar Airways.

Israel’s airspace continues to be closed to most civilian traffic. Access is currently limited to military operations and civilian flights that have received prior authorisation.

Jordan’s airspace remains open; however, operators are being advised to plan for potential delays and carry additional fuel as a precaution.

• Saudi Arabia: Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf  – Expires 2200 UTC | 5 March
• Iran: Total closure – Expires 0830 UTC | 7 March
• Iraq: Total closure – Expires 0900 UTC | 7 March
• Qatar: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 5 March
• Bahrain: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 5 March
• Kuwait: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 5March
• Syria: Total closure – Expires 2100 UTC | 7 March
• United Arab Emirates: Closure by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones – All expire 1200 UTC | 6 March
• Israel: Total closure – Expires 1000 UTC | 9 March
• Azerbaijan: Southern sector closed – Expires 1939 UTC | 5 March

Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 05 MARCH 2026

Intelligence cut off: 08:47 UTC 04 MARCH 2026

We note that Oman airspace remains open. In addition, Jordan has removed its nighttime ban.

• Saudi Arabia: Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf  – Expires 2200 UTC | 4 March
• Iran: Total closure – Expires 0830 UTC | 7 March
• Iraq: Total closure – Expires 0900 UTC | 7 March
• Qatar: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 4 March
• Bahrain: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 4 March
• Kuwait: Total closure – Expires 1600 UTC | 4 March
• Syria: Total closure – Expires 2100 UTC | 7 March
• United Arab Emirates: Partially closed – Expires 1200 UTC | 4 March
• Israel: Total closure – Expires 1000 UTC | 9 March

Solace Global is currently able to evacuate personnel from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Israel. If you require assistance, our security team is available 24/7 to discuss secure transportation.

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Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 03 MARCH 2026

Gulf States Ground Evacuation Routes and Border Crossings Map

Israel Ground Evacuation Routes and Border Crossings Map

Please Note:

All ground movements are subject to current immigration and border regulations. Travellers must confirm entry requirements in advance, including visa eligibility, residency status, and passport validity. Border policies and processing times may change with little notice.

Evacuations conducted by Solace Global are assessed case by case, based on the evacuee’s citizenship and the entry requirements of the receiving country. Route selection depends on border accessibility, security conditions, and onward travel options.

Intelligence cut off: 09:00 UTC 03 MARCH 2026

We note that Oman (OOMM) airspace remains open.

• Saudi Arabia (OEJD) — Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf  — Expires 2200 UTC | 3 March
• Iran (OIIX) — Total closure — Expires 0830 UTC | 7 March
• Iraq (ORBB) — Total closure — Expires 0900 UTC | 4 March
• Qatar (OTDF) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 3 March
• Bahrain (OBBB) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 3 March
• Kuwait (OKAC) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 3 March
• Syria (OSTT) — Total closure — Expires 2100 UTC | 3 March
• United Arab Emirates (OMAE) — Partially closed — Expires 1200 UTC | 4 March
• Israel (LLLL) — Total closure — Expires 1000 UTC | 6 March
• Jordan (OJAC) — Closed daily from 1500 to 0600 — Expires 0600 UTC | 5 March

Solace Global is currently able to evacuate personnel from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Israel. If you require assistance, our security team is available 24/7 to discuss secure transportation.

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Intelligence cut off: 16:30 UTC 02 MARCH 2026

• Since 28 February, Iran has conducted ballistic missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
• Iran has further escalated strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, including oil and gas infrastructure, in addition to strikes targeting US military facilities.
• Airspaces remain closed across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, as of 2 March.
• In Kuwait, the Doha West power station, Mina Al Ahmadi Refinery, and US Embassy in Kuwait City were impacted. Most drones were reportedly intercepted near Rumaithiya and ⁠Salwa neighbourhoods.
• In Bahrain, a foreign vessel in Salman Industrial City and a US-flagged tanker in the Port of Bahrain were impacted. Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) was targeted on 1 March by an Iranian drone, causing material damage but no casualties.
• In Qatar, air defences intercepted attacks reportedly aimed at civilian infrastructure, including Hamad International Airport (DOH / OTHH). A water tank in Ras Laffan Industrial City was also impacted.
• The UAE has been the second most targeted country behind Israel. Further explosions were reported in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai on 2 March.
• Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term, and while likely continuing to prioritise the targeting of US military installations, they will also likely continue against civilian-profile targets due to the escalation in Iranian targeting patterns.
• The UK FCDO maintains its travel advice to advise against all but essential travel to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 UTC 02 MARCH 2026

• Cyprus: Airspace Open
• Egypt: Airspace open. Israeli passport holders NOT permitted entry.
• Jordan: Partial closure on a daily basis, between UTC 1500 and 0600, until March 5th. Israeli passport holders must use this route, open to all other passport holders.
• Saudi Arabia: Partial closure affecting area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf
• Bahrain: Total closure
• Israel: Total closure
• Iran: Total closure
• Iraq: Total closure
• Kuwait: Total closure
• Qatar: Total closure
• Syria: Total closure
• United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates (OMAE) airspace is not outright closed, but remains restricted by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones, effectively limiting commercial air traffic.

Intelligence cut off: 12:30 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

• Avoid all non-essential travel to the Middle East.
• Travellers should follow shelter-in-place orders and advisories, particularly in Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
• Do not conduct travel to the airport until shelter-in-place orders or recommendations are lifted. Once lifted, ensure that booked flights are still running before conducting travel to the airport.
• Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if situated in the Middle East.
• Travellers in Israel should familiarise themselves with the nearest air raid shelter and ensure that they have downloaded applications that provide early warning of incoming threats, such as Home Front Command or Red Alert.
• Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
• Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
• Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes, terrorist attacks, and civil unrest.
• Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
• Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
• Closely monitor alerts from a security provider if available, trusted local news reports and government alerts.

Intelligence cut off: 12:30 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

On 28 February, Iran conducted ballistic missile strikes targeting United States military facilities in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain in response to joint United States and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The strikes targeted US military installations across the Gulf region, including facilities associated with force posture, command and control, and logistics.

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Intelligence cut off: 08:10 UTC 28 FEBRUARY 2026

At approximately 10:00 Iranian local time on 28 February, the US and Israel conducted strikes against Iran. The strikes followed weeks of escalating regional tensions, large-scale US military build-up across the region and Tehran’s refusal to concede to US demands regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

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