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India Launches Airstrikes on Pakistan

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India Conducts Airstrikes in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir After Pahalgam Terror Attack

Intelligence cut off: 10:00 BST 07 MAY 2025

At approximately 00:30 local time on 7 May, the Indian Air Force (IAF) conducted airstrikes against nine different locations in both Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan.

Among the areas targeted are Muzaffarabad, Kotli, and Bagh in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, and Sialkot, Sarjal/Tehra Kalan, Muridke, and Bahawalpur in Pakistan. Pakistani Armed Forces (PAF) spokespersons have claimed the attacks resulted in at least 26 dead and 46 injured.

The strikes, codenamed Operation Sindoor, were carried out as part of India’s broader strategy to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in neighbouring Pakistan, following the 22 April attack in Pahalgam. India’s Defence Ministry has declared that it targeted nine different sites considered “terrorist infrastructure” in a “focused, measured, and non-escalatory” manner, with sites allegedly linked to proscribed militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. No Pakistani military sites were reportedly targeted. Indian officials issued a list of alleged militant camps targeted across Pakistan in the aftermath.

In retaliation, Pakistani forces conducted cross-border shelling in Kashmir, reportedly killing and injuring several civilians, and have claimed to have downed five Indian military aircraft. Flight operations at Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport (KHI) and Lahore’s Allama Iqbal International Airport (LHE) were temporarily suspended overnight due to heightened risks posed by the ongoing aerial engagements.

Similar restrictions have also been implemented across nine airports in northern and western India, with Air India suspending flights to Jammu and Srinagar in Kashmir, Leh, Chandigarh, Jodhpur, Amritsar, Bhuj, Jamnagar, and Rajkot through 10 May.

Air France has suspended flights over Pakistan. Several other airlines have followed suit, re-routing or cancelling flights to and from Europe.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has described the strikes as an “unprovoked act of war” and referred to the Indian claims of targeting terrorist camps as “false”. Pakistan has justified the retaliatory military action as justified under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which allows self-defence in response to armed attack.

Amid the tit-for-tat strikes, both Indian and Pakistani strikes allegedly hit hydropower assets. Unconfirmed reports by Pakistani media have accused India of targeting the Noseri Dam near the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project. Two shells also landed on hydroelectric corporation offices in Indian-administered Kashmir, according to an Indian official.

India’s home ministry ordered mock drills to test preparation for an attack across the country to take place on 7 May, including air raid warning system tests. This constitutes the largest civil defence drill in India since 1971. India’s Air Force is expected to hold drills on the night of 7 May in the west of the country, and Delhi and Bengaluru airports are set to hold disaster management exercises; these are reportedly unlikely to impact passenger operations.

Beijing has declared that it is closely following the situation and has advised its citizens to avoid conflict areas. China’s foreign ministry has urged both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and refrain from taking escalatory actions.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The airstrikes come amid escalatory tit-for-tat actions between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam attack, which resulted in at least 26 civilian deaths. The attack was allegedly orchestrated by the Resistance Front, a reported offshoot of the Pakistan-linked terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The high civilian toll, almost all of whom were Hindu Indian nationals, has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, prompting mass deportations and the imposition of airspace restrictions in the days leading up to the 7 May strikes.

There is precedent for India retaliating with airstrikes after perceived Pakistan-backed militant attacks on its territory. In 2016 India launched “surgical strikes” against Pakistan after four militants killed 19 Indian soldiers in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir; in 2019, further strikes were launched in Balakot after 40 Indian paramilitary personnel were killed in a bombing in Pulwama.

Indian strikes on Pakistan have generally been subthreshold, designed to target militant camps to carry out retaliatory measures while not forcing Islamabad into entering into a direct conflict.

While Pakistan has responded with limited artillery shelling along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, it is likely Pakistan will be forced to respond with airstrikes under mounting public pressure. Pakistani retaliatory strikes are highly likely to be carefully calibrated to remain below the escalation threshold and to avoid triggering a major conflict with a rival nuclear power.

During previous hostilities in 2019, Pakistan refrained from directly targeting Indian military sites, instead striking open areas to demonstrate its capability while limiting civilian casualties. To avoid a major escalation or miscalculation, Pakistan will likely limit its strikes to Indian-administered territory in Jammu and Kashmir.

The targeting of dams, particularly in Indian-administered Kashmir, is highly likely due to India’s perceived weaponisation of water flows after unilaterally pulling out of the Indus Water Treaty. This has significantly escalated tensions between the two sides since it threatens Pakistan’s water supply and agricultural sector, with Pakistan having warned that any attempt from India to disrupt the flow of water from its rivers would be considered an act of war.

Over the past week, India has taken steps to enhance the storage capacity at two hydroelectric facilities in Jammu and Kashmir’s Himalayan region, constituting the first concrete action outside the framework of the Indus Water Treaty. In a highly likely perceived threat to Pakistan’s water supply, India began flushing silt at the Baglihar and Salal dams in the Kashmir valley on 3 May. This would ordinarily only be allowed during the monsoon season, as it involves nearly emptying the reservoirs of silt before closing the dams and slowly refilling them, choking water flow downstream.

Pakistan recorded a significant decrease in the waters of the Chenab River, and since 4 May, almost 90 per cent of the usual volume has been prevented from flowing into the Chenab River.

A full-scale conflict between the two nations remains unlikely despite the airstrikes. For India, a war would highly likely drag the country into a prolonged conflict that would significantly affect its economy. This would almost certainly stretch India’s armed forces, which have been underfunded in recent years, allowing Pakistan to catch up militarily.

Although the US has developed closer ties with India, especially during the Trump administration, a conflict between India and Pakistan would likely impact the global economy, giving the US a strong interest in promoting de-escalation.

Pakistan almost certainly cannot afford to enter a war. Pakistan Armed Forces are currently engaged in a multi-front internal conflict against militant groups, primarily in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While its military is more battle-tested than India’s, a war would almost certainly overstretch its armed forces, would risk destabilising the military-dominated government and would provide opportunities for militants to exploit.

Furthermore, a conflict would hinder the country’s progress in stabilising its economy. Pakistan was removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2023 after legislative and institutional reforms to address perceived anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing deficiencies. India has indicated plans to advocate for Pakistan’s re-entry in the aftermath of the militant attack, and a war would significantly increase the likelihood of this happening.

Furthermore, a conflict would hinder the country’s progress in stabilising its economy. Pakistan was removed from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2023 after legislative and institutional reforms to address perceived anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing deficiencies. India has indicated plans to advocate for Pakistan’s re-entry in the aftermath of the militant attack, and a war would significantly increase the likelihood of this happening.

If re-added, Pakistan would almost certainly face reduced investment and foreign aid, as well as risk being blacklisted, which would significantly affect is ability to finance its debt repayments.

Given that both nations are nuclear-armed, a full-scale conflict would risk rapid escalation and nuclear war. This acts as a deterrence from escalation for both sides, who will likely favour diplomatic options and limited skirmishes despite the ongoing brinkmanship. Diplomatic pressure will almost certainly be applied by regional powers including China.

Amid heightened sectarian tensions, there will highly likely be increased attacks between Hindus and Muslims in India and Pakistan, with probable clashes during protests. There is a realistic possibility of sectarian tensions also manifesting within diaspora communities, such as within the UK, US, and Canada. Disinformation campaigns framing the attack as a symptom of an inter-religious conflict are likely and will almost certainly exacerbate tensions.

This is especially since the tensions come shortly after Modi passed the Waqf Amendment Act, which changes the way Muslim waqf properties are governed, triggering violent protests by conservative Muslim communities, particularly in West Bengal.

There is a realistic possibility of lone-actor attacks, further inflaming sectarian tensions. Security forces of both countries will almost certainly be at a heightened state of alert during the current tensions, which likely reduces the threshold at which they will respond forcefully to perceived unrest, making clashes between protesters and security forces likely.


Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for India and Pakistan

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Jammu and Kashmir, as well as Indian-Pakistani border regions.
  • Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure.
  • Civil unrest and demonstrations are highly likely throughout both India and Pakistan. Travellers are advised to avoid all areas of unrest. Protests are likely to occur near government buildings, foreign embassies, and religious sites.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stranded in India or Pakistan.
  • The security situation in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to remain highly unstable in the coming weeks with an increased potential for further cross-border strikes, terror attacks, and civil unrest.
  • Evacuations and internal displacement will almost certainly lead to widespread travel disruption and congestion on major roads. Ensure vehicles are fuelled, consider alternative routes, and ensure that vehicles are loaded with additional fuel, water, food and other critical supplies.
  • Confirm booked flights are running before checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any losses in electricity. 
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.

Travel Risk Advisory

Songkran Festival 2025

Songkran 2025 Travel Risk Advisory main 2

Key Safety and Risk Factors Ahead of Songkran 2025

Executive Summary

  • Songkran, or the Thai New Year, occurs from 13 to 15 April each year, but typically causes disruptions from 11 to 17 April.
  • Celebrations involve water fights, symbolising washing away bad luck and welcoming the new year.
  • Various health risks are associated with high temperatures and potentially contaminated water.
  • There is a high threat of road traffic accidents, with higher numbers of intoxicated drivers, speeding, and hazardous road conditions.
  • Rates of petty crimes like pickpocketing and bag snatching increase during Songkran.
  • Rates of violent crime often increase as a result of high levels of inebriation.
  • Rates of sexual harassment increase during celebrations.

SITUATIONAL SUMMARY

Songkran, meaning “passage of the sun”, occurs from 13 to 15 April each year (although celebrations usually extend from 11 to 17 April) and celebrates the Thai/Buddhist New Year. It is one of Thailand’s most important holidays and is marked by nationwide celebrations, including parades, religious festivities, and family gatherings.

Widespread water fights are a primary feature of the festival, which symbolise washing away bad luck and welcoming the new year. Many Thais visit temples to “make merit” which typically consists of giving alms to monks and pouring water over statues of the Buddha. Thai residents, diaspora, and tourists usually travel to major cities in Thailand to spend time with their families and participate in the festivities.

Although Songkran is celebrated nationwide, the style of celebrations differs regionally. The largest celebrations typically occur in the capital, Bangkok, a hub for celebrations attracting thousands of nationals and tourists each year. In preparation for the festival, roads are closed and stations equipped with water guns are set up. Chiang Mai is one of the most popular destinations, with thousands gathering around the moat and Thapae Gate to conduct water fights and participate in parades. In Pattaya, the celebrations last until 19 April and include sand pagoda building and live shows.

Related festivals are also celebrated by Cambodia (Cambodian New Year), Laos, Sri Lanka (Sinhalese New Year), Myanmar (Thingyan), Arunachal Pradesh and parts of Assam in India (Sangken), in Xishuangbanna in China, and parts of northern Vietnam.

The Myanmar earthquake on 28 March 2025, which was felt in Bangkok, will almost certainly impact Songkran. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has confirmed that Songkran will continue, despite the damage, but high-rise hotels will undergo inspections.

The Thai Hotels Association (THA) predicts that tourism revenue will fall by 10-15 per cent over the next two weeks, with tourists either cancelling their trips or changing their destinations to other Thai cities, including Pattaya and Phuket. This will highly likely reduce the density of the people celebrating Songkran in the capital but may conversely increase the density of revellers in other major cities, raising the associated risks.

TRAVEL RISKS: TRANSPORTATION

Songkran is one of the most congested periods of the year and typically causes significant travel disruptions. Many people travel to their hometowns or tourist attractions; with railways being overly crowded and flights being unaffordable, road travel is common, which increases the number of road users during this period. Around Thailand’s major cities, authorities typically close roads ahead of the celebrations and set up checkpoints to deter drunk driving.

The festival attracts many tourists, stretching transportation networks and local infrastructure. In 2024, approximately 1.9 million foreign tourists visited Thailand during Songkran, which was a 37.54 per cent increase from the year before, something attributed to government measures to ease travel and post-COVID increases in tourism. Tourists typically cause an increased demand for public transport, including taxis and buses, further exacerbating the need for locals to use private transport.

Songkran causes a spike in road traffic accidents (RTAs), and the week of festivities is known locally as the “seven dangerous days”. During this period, the RTA rate approximately doubles in a country already experiencing very high rates. From 11 to 17 April 2024, there were at least 480 RTA fatalities and over 2,000 injuries, equating to approximately 69 fatalities per day. This puts Thailand temporarily in the top 10 the most dangerous countries in the world for RTAs during Songkran. Motorcycles account for most of the deaths, which are generally attributed to driving while intoxicated, speeding, cutting lanes, wet road surfaces, and inadequate safety wear. Revellers throwing water at cars and motorcycles has also contributed to causing accidents.

TRAVEL RISKS: CRIME

Crime and Safety Concerns at Songkran Festivals

The large crowds and heavy tourist presence also raise the likelihood of petty theft, including pickpocketing and bag snatching. In 2024, organised gangs targeted festival-goers at the Pattaya Water Festival, stealing large amounts of cash, mobile phones, credit cards, and essential documents. Foreign travellers are often targeted because of their perceived higher wealth and unfamiliarity with the local area.

Violent crime typically also increases around Songkran due to the large crowds, widespread alcohol consumption, and road rage. In Pattaya, during the 2024 celebrations, a man was arrested after threatening others with a gun after a violent altercation. In the Isaan province of Roi Et the same year, six men were arrested for beating and stabbing two travellers after an argument linked to road congestion.

Men are generally disproportionately at risk of being violently assaulted, accounting for 82 per cent of deaths from assault during Songkran from 2009 to 2011. Attacks on foreigners are often linked to cultural and social misunderstandings perceived as disrespectful or insulting to Thai culture. Examples include excessive intoxication, criticism of the monarchy, wearing unsuitable attire at culturally significant sites, showing disrespect toward national symbols like the Thai flag or anthem, and engaging in overt public displays of affection.

Sexual harassment, sexual assault, and drink spiking also pose a risk to both locals and travellers, with women reporting cases of harassment during water fights. A survey taken in March 2024 found that 32.43 per cent of the Bangkok residents surveyed were sexually harassed at Songkran celebrations in the previous three years and 14.9 per cent did not join water fights due to fears of sexual harassment. Authorities typically launch anti-harassment campaigns leading up to Songkran, stressing its illegality.

While celebrations are widespread, travellers can face penalties for involving unwilling participants. Splashing water on people not involved in the celebrations can be considered causing a nuisance or damaging property, leading to potential prison sentences of up to one month or a 10,000-baht (228 GBP) fine. During the 2024 celebrations, for example, three tourists from Hong Kong were jailed for 28 days after splashing a police officer with water. Similarly, dumping powder on unwilling participants, an act which typically involves non-consensual contact, could result in a public indecency charge.

TRAVEL RISKS: HEALTH

The water fights, large crowds, and high temperatures during Songkran frequently result in elevated health risks. Songkran is often associated with higher rates of colds, flu, respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases, skin diseases, and conjunctivitis. This is largely due to untreated water being used during water fights, which can carry bacteria, viruses, and other pathogens. For example, in Chiang Mai, water is often taken from the moat, while in other towns, it is often sourced from lakes and rivers.

In 2015, lab tests detected a large number of parasites in the Chiang Mai moat, triggering cleaning operations before the festival. In 2024, at least 65 children contracted rotavirus after attending a foam party in Suphan Buri. In the same year, new COVID-19 cases surged to a daily average of 143 during the week following Songkran. The combined risks of infection, road traffic accidents, and the aftermath of the earthquake will likely put a strain on hospitals during Songkran in 2025.


Tips for Staying Safe During Songkran 2025

  • Plan your journeys in advance and allow extra time to accommodate road closures and disruptions.
  • Avoid riding motorcycles, whether as a driver or passenger, from 11 to 17 April.
  • If you must drive, ensure you utilise safety features such as a seatbelt.
  • Be cautious when crossing the streets, as roads are often slippery, and drivers may be intoxicated.
  • Avoid walking close to busy roads.
  • Wrap valuables in waterproof material, such as plastic or zip-lock storage bags.
  • Wear lightweight, quick-drying, dark-coloured clothing.
  • Do not take part in water fights in temples, government buildings, or inside public transport.
  • Do not splash monks, the elderly, babies, or figures of authority, such as police officers.
  • Respect local customs and traditions, ensuring you do not offend Thai culture.
  • Research local regulations before the festivities as some areas ban alcohol during Songkran or set up “safe zones”.
  • Drink plenty of water throughout the day and avoid excessive amounts of alcohol to remain hydrated.
  • Avoid overt displays of wealth and exercise vigilance against pickpocketing.
  • Be alert to the risk of drink-spiking. Do not leave your drink unattended; if you do, purchase a new one when you return.
  • Consider wearing ear and eye protection to minimise the risk of conjunctivitis or ear infections.
  • Avoid taking part in water fights near stagnant bodies of water, as this water is often used and may contain pathogens.
  • Ensure you wash thoroughly after water fights to avoid disease.
  • Take the necessary precautions against sun- and heat-related illnesses, considering that water may remove sunscreen applied to the skin.
  • Carry emergency contact details with you at all times.
  • Due to the heightened risk of injury and illness, travellers should have comprehensive travel insurance in place.

SUPPORTING SAFE TRAVEL ACROSS THAILAND

Journey Management Services for Travel to Thailand

Songkran and other national festivals in Thailand can bring increased movement, road closures, and heightened risks. For organisations, this means planning travel with greater care and oversight.

Solace Global provides tailored journey management services to support safe and seamless movement across Thailand. We combine local insight with secure transport coordination, route planning, and real-time monitoring — all underpinned by intelligence from our Global Security Operations Centre (GSOC).

Alert+

Myanmar Hit by 7.7-Magnitude Earthquake

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Emergency Declared as Earthquake Devastates Sagaing and Mandalay

Intelligence cut off: 10:00 GMT 28 March 2025

At 12:50 local time (06:20 UTC) on 28 March, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the Sagaing Region of central Myanmar. The epicentre was located approximately 16 kilometres north-northwest of Sagaing City in Mandalay’s outskirts, at a depth of 10 kilometres. The main tremor was followed by several aftershocks of above 5.0 magnitude. The earthquake has caused widespread damage across the cities of Sagaing and Mandalay, with multiple high-rise buildings and bridges destroyed. Tremors have also been felt in neighbouring countries, including Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, and Thailand.

The impacts of the earthquake were felt strongly in Thailand, where shaking caused buildings to collapse in Bangkok. The Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra declared a state of emergency within the first hours of the earthquake being felt and also ordered the evacuation of tall buildings in Bangkok, at least one of which collapsed while under construction. Communications were disrupted in Bangkok, and the Transport Ministry temporarily suspended flights nationwide for approximately 20 minutes; flights have since resumed. Train services were also suspended in the capital until further notice.

Official casualty figures are currently unclear. Myanmar’s military junta controls most radio, television, print, and online media; internet use is restricted; and communication lines are currently down. According to the US Geological Survey, thousands are likely dead as a result of the shaking, stating that ‘high casualties and extensive damage are probable, and the disaster is likely widespread.’ Myanmar’s national disaster management committee has declared a state of emergency in Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, northeastern Shan State, Naypyitaw Council Area, and Bago.

Local reports have confirmed several casualties. In Mandalay, the collapse of a mosque resulted in 10 deaths, and several monks were injured when a monastery also collapsed. In Taungoo Township, a school collapse claimed the lives of five children, and 14 others died when a mosque collapsed. Two fatalities were reported in Pyawbwe Township following the collapse of both a mosque and a university building. In Taungoo Township, a school acting as a shelter for displaced people collapsed, trapping over 20 individuals. In Aungban, Shan, the collapse of a hotel killed two people and left 20 others trapped.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The earthquake is the strongest in Myanmar in over 150 years. The last comparable tremor occurred in 2012 when a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck near Shwebo, 120 kilometres north of Mandalay. The 2012 earthquake resulted in 26 fatalities: a toll almost certain to be considerably exceeded by the latest quake. North-central, south-central, and central Myanmar frequently experiences seismic activity due to their location within the convergence zone of the Indian and Sunda Plates, where tectonic stress is periodically released as earthquakes.

The Sagaing Fault is a major geological feature running north to south through central Myanmar, which likely explains why Bangkok was more affected than areas in Bangladesh. Its positioning induces east-west compression, leading to crustal shortening and uplift, while also generating north-south stress that drives lateral crustal movement. Given its proximity to Myanmar’s largest urban centres, including Mandalay and Yangon, the fault poses a significant risk of damage in the event of future seismic activity.

Several aftershocks have already been felt in Myanmar; further aftershocks are highly likely in the coming days. While the aftershocks are unlikely to reach a similar magnitude to the initial earthquake, further aftershocks of approximately 5.0 magnitude may still occur. This could further damage structures that have already been weakened by the initial tremor and hinder relief efforts.

A humanitarian crisis has been ongoing in the country since the military conducted a coup in February 2021, deposing the democratically elected government. Several resistance groups formed in the aftermath, triggering a civil war. Significant civilian casualties and widespread displacement have occurred as a result of the conflict, and the nation faces a worsening humanitarian crisis. The earthquake will almost certainly exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis by disrupting power and water infrastructure, trade routes, and agriculture, which accounts for between 25 and 30 per cent of Myanmar’s GDP.

Given the mountainous topography of the region, limited capabilities of the authorities, and potential aftershocks, relief efforts will likely be hampered. This will likely be exacerbated by the ongoing conflict, whereby the military junta will almost certainly prioritise regime survival over humanitarian assistance, likely using limited resources to assist the affected regions not under its control. The government has implemented a state of emergency in the aftermath, which may be used to conduct arbitrary detentions, impose curfews, and censor media.

The likely limited assistance will almost certainly be exacerbated by the presence of rebel groups in Mandalay. These groups include Mandalay People’s Defence Force (PDF), Ta’ang National Liberation Front (TNLF), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA).  On 14 March, at least 27 people were killed and at least 30 injured after Myanmar’s military junta conducted an airstrike on Singu Township, Mandalay. It is likely that rebel groups will take advantage of the damaged infrastructure and communications networks in the region to capture government-held territory near Mandalay.


Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for Myanmar

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • Expect aftershocks. Be prepared to Drop, Cover, Hold On in case of further tremors.
  • During a tremor, if outside, do not enter buildings and move away from buildings, trees, streetlights and overhead lines.
  • If inside, pick a safe place (under a sturdy table or desk or against an interior wall and away from windows and heavy furniture). Do not leave until the shaking stops.
  • If evacuating a building, always use the stairs. Look out for fires and falling debris.
  • Prepare an emergency ‘go bag’ with essentials such as bottled water, batteries, important documents, and medications.
  • Confirm booked flights are running before checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
  • Management should maintain communication with the individuals affected until the event is concluded.
  • Heed evacuation orders and travel to government-issued shelters if it is safe to do so.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Ensure important documents and medications are appropriately stored.
  • Prepare for power outages, communication disruptions, and travel delays. Stay away from damaged buildings and affected areas until authorities deem them safe.

Alert+

Turkey’s Opposition Leader Arrested in Istanbul

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Transport Hubs Closed as Protests and Restrictions Hit Istanbul

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 GMT 19 March 2025

On the morning of 19 March, the Mayor of Istanbul and head of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Ekrem Imamoglu, was arrested on suspicion of being the head of a “criminal organisation” as well as aiding the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

On 18 March, Imamoglu was stripped of his university degree by Istanbul University, over reports of administrative irregularities during his studies. As university degrees are required for presidential candidates in Turkey, Imamoglu who is widely regarded as the most popular opposition candidate for the 2028 elections, has effectively been excluded from running by the university’s decision.

Istanbul Turkey - Protests Map 2025

CHP is holding its candidate selection process on 23 March. In addition to Imamoglu, authorities reported that “100” other suspects had been arrested in the operation, including prominent journalist Ismail Saymaz.

Turkish media reported, following the arrest, that authorities have imposed a four-day restriction period on meetings, demonstrations, and press releases in the city. There are confirmed reports that Turkish authorities have imposed widespread internet restrictions, blocking access to platforms including X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. In central Istanbul, multiple metro stations, including Taksim station, are reported to be closed on orders of the governor.

CHP leaders have organised multiple protests for 14:00 local time, including in Istanbul and Ankara. A gathering of protesters has been recorded at the central Istanbul police station as of the time of writing.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The arrest of Imamoglu is highly likely to provoke significant unrest, and it is almost certain to be perceived by opposition supporters as a move by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to consolidate power and neutralise the opposition. Erdogan is constitutionally barred from running for president again, but it is likely that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) will field a constitutional amendment to prolong Erdogan’s presidency.

Protests are highly likely to concentrate in the centres of large cities, especially Istanbul. The CHP call for protests at the local party headquarters will almost certainly mean that these will be hotspots for gatherings of Imamoglu’s supporters. In addition to party offices, local universities are highly likely to be affected by unrest. Istanbul University is generally considered particularly liberal and is especially at risk as its students have in recent years launched several protests against its rectors, who are appointed directly by the president and are perceived to be excessively friendly to the government.

The authorities have closed Taksim Square metro station to limit the size of protests being organised near Taksim Square and are likely to close other stations.

Turkish police are highly likely to respond violently to any large gatherings and will also likely target isolated groups of protesters to prevent the formation of larger crowds. Turkish police employ harsh crowd-control measures including the use of tear gas, water cannons, and pepper spray. Arbitrary detentions of bystanders have been reported. Turkish authorities have previously used increased powers during periods of increased instability to detain foreign nationals who have engaged in or been near major protests.

Ankara Turkey - Protests Map 2025

Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for Greece

  • Avoid all large gatherings. Limit travel in central Istanbul and Ankara due to the threat of protests. Avoid travelling to the vicinity of university campuses.
  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • Monitor the IETT website for live updates on transport in Istanbul.
  • Plan for alternative routes and means of transport in Istanbul and Ankara. Allocate additional time for all travel
  • If caught in a protest area, try to leave quickly if it is safe to do so.
  • If you are in a crowd and unable to leave, take precautions to minimise the risk of crowd crush. These include staying upright, moving away from all hard barriers, going with and not against the crowd, and holding your arms at chest level in a boxer-like stance to relieve pressure.
  • Increased security deployments are likely to continue throughout the four-day restrictions period (19-22 March). Disruptions are highly likely to be particularly severe during the weekend.
  • Ensure that you always carry personal identification documents or copies.​​
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any losses in electricity.
  • Consider options to bypass internet restrictions or mitigate their impacts. This could include downloading useful resources ahead of travel and using a VPN and Tor Browser while in-country.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.

Alert+

7.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Tibet

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Widespread Damage in Tibet: Earthquake Strikes Near Mount Everest

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 GMT 07 January 2025

At 09:05 local time (01:05 UTC) on 7 January, a powerful magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Tingri County in southern Tibet. The epicentre was located approximately 80 kilometres north of Mount Everest at a depth of ten kilometres. The main tremor was followed by aftershocks of above 5.0 magnitude. The earthquake has caused widespread damage across Tingri County, including the city of Shigatse. Tremors were also felt in neighbouring countries, including Nepal and northern India, although no significant damage has so far been reported in these locations.

Initial reports confirm at least 95 fatalities and over 130 injuries, with more than 1,000 buildings damaged or destroyed. While the mountainous Tingri County is scarcely populated, approximately 7,000 people live within 20 kilometres of the epicentre. The city of Shigatse, the second largest in Tibet, has around 800,000 residents.

Local sources reported that the earthquake has disrupted local power and water supplies, and damage to local roadways has also been recorded. In January, the area has daily minimum temperatures of below -15 degrees Celsius, and daily average temperatures of -7.5 degrees.

The Chinese Air Force has initiated rescue efforts and deployed drones to the affected area. At least 1,500 firefighters and rescue workers have also been dispatched, alongside supplies including cotton tents, quilts, and folding beds.

Tibet 7.1-Magnitude Earthquake ShakeMap

7.1 Magnitude earthquake recorded at 01:05 UTC, 7 January 2025. United States Geological Survey ShakeMap, MMI Contours


SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The earthquake is one of the deadliest China has experienced in recent years. On 23 January 2024, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck Xinjiang, China. The death count was significantly lower, however, with only three deaths. In 2008, a large earthquake in Sichuan province killed nearly 70,000 people.

Southwestern regions of China are frequently affected by earthquakes. This is largely due to the region lying at the convergence zone of the Indian Plate and Eurasian Plate, which periodically releases tectonic stress as earthquakes. Furthermore, the region has numerous active fault systems including the Longmenshan Fault Zone, which triggered the 2008 earthquake, and the Xianshuihe Fault Zone.

The Lhasa block, also known as the Lhasa terrane, is a significant geological region in southern Tibet, situated between the Bangong-Nujiang suture zone to the north and the Indus–Yarlung Zangbo suture zone to the south. This positioning generates north-south compression, resulting in crustal shortening and uplift, as well as west-east stress, which drives lateral crustal movements. These geological processes play a crucial role in the formation of the Himalayas and significantly impact regional fault systems and seismic activity.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

While the United States Geological Survey measured the earthquake’s magnitude as 7.1, the China Earthquake Networks Center recorded a magnitude of 6.8. Differences in earthquake readings is relatively common due to the utilisation of different magnitude scales, algorithms, frequency sensitivity, distance from the epicentre, and the complexity of the fault movement.

Several aftershocks have already been felt in Tibet and Nepal; further aftershocks are highly likely in the coming days. While the aftershocks are unlikely to reach a similar magnitude to the initial earthquake, further aftershocks of approximately 5.0 magnitude may still occur. This could further damage structures that have already been weakened by the initial tremor and hinder relief efforts.

Power and water have been significantly disrupted in the region, which could further exacerbate humanitarian issues as residents cope with the aftermath. More deaths will almost certainly be confirmed as authorities verify fatalities amidst ongoing rescue efforts.

Shigatse, the closest city to the epicentre, is regarded as one of Tibet’s holiest cities and contains the Tashilhunpo Monestary which houses the seat of the Panchen Lama, a central figure in Tibetan Buddhism, second only to the Dalai Lama. It is an important pilgrimage site for Tibetan Buddhists. Furthermore, because of its proximity to the Nepalese border, it is an important trade hub. The earthquake will almost certainly disrupt trade through the region as recovery efforts continue.

The area is also a notable tourist site. Since Tingri county is located at the foot of Mount Everest, tourists often base themselves in the region. Mount Everest sightseeing tours have been cancelled in the aftermath. However, no significant damages were recorded at Mount Everest base camp.

The government’s response to the earthquake is likely to be viewed through the lens of historical Tibetan grievances. Given the mountainous topography of the region and potential aftershocks, relief efforts will likely be hampered, potentially opening the government up for criticism regarding its effectiveness at governing in the region. In the aftermath of the earthquake, there is a realistic possibility that those sympathetic to Tibetan independence will scrutinise the government response and call for self-determination.


Travel Risk Advice: Precautions for Tibet Erthquake Zones

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts
  • Expect aftershocks. Be prepared to Drop, Cover, and Hold On in case of further tremors.
  • During a tremor:
    • If outside, avoid entering buildings. Move away from buildings, trees, streetlights, and overhead lines.
    • If inside, pick a safe place, such as under a sturdy table or desk, or against an interior wall. Stay away from windows and heavy furniture. Do not leave until the shaking stops.
  • If evacuating a building, always use the stairs.
  • Be alert to fires and falling debris.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Follow evacuation orders and travel to government-designated shelters if it is safe to do so.
  • Ensure important documents and medications are safely stored.
  • Prepare an emergency “go bag” with essentials, including bottled water, batteries, important documents, and medications.
  • Confirm flights are operating before checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
  • Prepare for potential power outages, communication disruptions, and travel delays.
  • Avoid damaged buildings and affected areas until authorities declare them safe.
  • Management should maintain communication with affected individuals until the situation is fully resolved.

US speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan

A delegation of American politicians, including House Speaker and senior Democratic politician Nancy Pelosi, landed at Taipei Shongshan Airport in the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) on 2 August. The visit to Taiwan comes amidst an ongoing tour of the Asia-Pacific by the high-profile delegation, which has been conducted for the purpose of reaffirming American commitments to the region. Countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan were included on the official itinerary list, but the visit to Taiwan was hidden, likely out of concerns that any official confirmation would prompt a harsh response from the People’s Republic of China (PRC, or China).

Intelligence suggesting that Nancy Pelosi would visit Taiwan prompted a series of warnings from the Chinese government and state media broadcasters. China warned that any visit to Taiwan would be considered as a provocation that would necessitate a diplomatic and, in some communications, military response from Chinese authorities. Speculation of Nancy Pelosi’s visit prompted China to engage in aggressive military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait during the morning of 2 August, including the positioning of warships and aircraft along the contested Median Line. A Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack was later recorded against the website of Taiwan’s presidential office.

Four US Navy warships, including the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship, have been operating east of Taiwan. US officials have stressed that their positioning was prompted by a “routine deployment”, but US military authorities remain on high alert due to the increased risk of miscommunication and miscalculation stemming from the elevated number of both US and Chinese military assets in the region.

In response, Chinese authorities announced three-day military drills will commence near Taiwan from 4 August.

Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan represents the most senior visit by a US official since the visit of House Speaker and Republican politician Newt Gingrich to  Taipei in 1997. Newt Gingrich’s visit prompted irritation within China but was tolerated at the time. Since 1997, however, China’s role in the global economy has grown exponentially, and China has begun to exercise a more assertive role in both regional and global diplomacy. There is now an increased willingness within the Chinese government to adopt a more hawkish stance towards Taiwan, which is actively considered to be one of China’s core national interests, alongside increasingly bellicose rhetoric regarding reunification.

Taiwanese self-governance and the perception of Taiwan as an integral territory of China has prompted the Chinese government to enforce a ‘One China’ policy in its global relations; a practice which the US has acknowledged since President Richard Nixon’s decision to thaw relations between the US and China in 1972. Despite this, the incumbent Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has accused US President Joe Biden of conducting a “fake” One China policy, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned the US “not to play with fire” over the legal and diplomatic status of Taiwan.

Although an invasion of Taiwan remains highly unlikely in the near-term due to the complexity of an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait, geopolitical and economic impact, and the potential for US involvement in the conflict, Nancy Pelosi’s visit is certain to escalate tensions further and will very likely lead to an increased Chinese military presence in the region over the coming weeks. Chinese officials have likely calculated that there is a need to reassert Chinese credibility over their red lines in Taiwan, given the current trajectory of US-Taiwan relations. A further military response remains realistically possible, such as live-fire exercises, significant naval and aerial posturing off Taiwan, or potentially missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwanese response should be anticipated, and the potential for miscalculation should not be ruled out. China may also seek to conduct retaliatory actions towards the US through economic levers.

•In the event of a significant security development, travellers in Taiwan should follow any instructions issued by the Taiwanese government.

•Political tensions may disrupt airspace in both China and Taiwan. It is advised to monitor flight information and check with your travel provider if you are unsure of the status of your flight.

•Instances of civil unrest within Taiwan cannot be ruled out. Travellers should avoid all demonstrations and large public gatherings as they may escalate quickly and without warning.

•Areas where political figures are known to gather are likely to be focal points for political activism and unrest, especially sites due to be attended by Nancy Pelosi or other delegates. You should be particularly vigilant in these areas and follow any specific advice from the local security authorities.

•Expect localised travel disruption and an enhanced security force posture in the short-term as Taiwanese authorities increase measures to protect the US delegation.

• Be aware that China may seek to retaliate for Nancy Pelosi’s visit within the economic, cyber, and diplomatic domains, which could place additional restrictions on business operations and travel within China, Taiwan, and the wider region.

• Make sure you are familiar with contact details for the emergency services (in Taiwan – dial 110 for the police, 119 for medical assistance or the fire brigade).

• Exercise increased caution, remain vigilant, be aware of your surroundings and report any suspicious activity to security personnel as soon as possible.

• If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey the security cordon in place. 

• Report any suspicious items and behaviours to the nearest security or police officials. 

• Monitor the Solace Secure platform and local media for updates. 


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Pyeongchang Olympics Risk Summary

The Winter Olympics is set to begin in Pyeongchang, South Korea on 09 February. Travel to the country brings a unique set of challenges and issues to overcome. For more on the Olympics, how to prepare and, what to expect when travelling to South Korea, please take a look at our risk summary below or download this information as a PDF from the following link:  Solace Global – Event Advisory – Pyeongchang Olympics Risk Summary

THE ROAD TO PYEONGCHANG…

  • 16 Oct 2009 – Pyeongchang submits bid to host games
  • 06 Jul 2011 – Pyeongchang selected as winner
  • 24 Oct 2017 – Olympic Torch Relay commenced
  • 09 Feb 2018 – Olympics Opening Ceremony
  • 25 Feb 2018 – Olympics Closing Ceremony
  • 09 Mar 2018 – Paralympics Opening Ceremony
  • 18 Mar 2018 – Paralympics Closing Ceremony

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT KEY FACTS

  • Estimated 43,703 (Pyeongchang County, as of 2014)
  • Population: 219,274 (Gangneung Metropolitan Area, as of 2012)
  • Geographic Area: 1,464 Km² (Pyeongchang County)  1,039.99 km² (Gangneung Metropolitan Area)
  • Language: Korean
  • Religion: Non-religious/traditional beliefs, Christianity, Buddhism
  • Weather: Cold & temperate (Pyeongchang) Warm & temperate, heavy rainfall (Gangneung)
  • GMT: +9
  • Capital: Seoul
  • Currency: South Korean Won
  • Emergency Services: 119 (Fire & Medical)  112 (Police)

PYEONGCHANG OLYMPICS KEY FACTS

COUNTRIES: 94

A record 94 countries are sending athletes to the 2018 Games. With North and South Korea competing under one flag. The Korean women’s ice hockey team will feature athletes from both countries. 2018 has seen a thawing of interKorean relations, after high tensions throughout 2017.

ATHLETES: 2,900

More than 2,900 athletes will compete at the Games. Russia has been banned from attending but more than 160 Russians will compete under the Olympics flag. The United States will send the most athletes, with nearly 250 planned competitors.

TICKETS: 1.07MILLION

1.07 million tickets for the Games will be on sale. So far, about 75% have been sold. The figure is lower than in comparison with Sochi 2014. Security is the most prominent factor contributing to a lack of sales, though the Russian doping scandal and a lack of local interest have also been contributing factors.

SECURITY: 5,000 

North Korean unpredictability remains the most obvious security challenge. 5,000 members of the military will be deployed for the Games. There are also plans for 15,000 volunteers to support the running of the Games.

OLYMPIC VENUES: 13

The events for the Games will be in Gangwon Province. Specifically in the Pyeongchang Mountain Cluster (snow events), Jeongseon (alpine speed events), and Gangneung (ice events).


LOCAL ETIQUETTE

  • Business dress is strictly formal; men generally wear dark suits, and women, typically modest dresses. Although this may later be relaxed, adherence to this code is advisable for early meetings. Dressing well is considered a sign of respect.
  • It is customary to greet people with a bow from the waist. A handshake may also be a substitute. More established acquaintances typically abbreviate the bow to a nod of the head.
  • When taking something from an older or senior person always use two hands; if you must use one hand, you should support your right arm with your left hand. This extends to the exchange of business cards. Another convention is to support your right arm with your left hand when shaking hands with somebody older or more senior. When talking to someone older, direct eye contact should generally be avoided.
  • Korean society places great emphasis on “face”. Embarrassing situations are to be avoided, or downplayed, as much as possible. This also makes it unusual to receive an apology if someone bumps into you.
  • Buddhist temples often display Swastikas. It originates as a local religious or spiritual symbol and has no connection to the Third Reich or Nazism.
  • Initial conversations are likely to cover a great deal of breadth rapidly; this may include questions about family, career, age, and education. This is not seen as intrusive, however brief answers are acceptable if you do not wish to divulge excessive detail.
  • Tipping is not expected in South Korea (but is welcomed), however a service charge of around 10% may be charged (compulsory) by hotels.
  • Bargaining is acceptable at open markets, but not so welcomed in shops and stores.
  • At some restaurants, you are required to take off your shoes before entering the dining area (usually a wooden floored area). If going to the bathroom, you should use sandals which are usually provided.
  • If you are an important guest, it can be considered rude to pour your own drink, and this must be poured for you by the person sitting next to you. If you are not an important guest, you should pour another’s drink before pouring your own.
  • Do not raise bowls to your mouth when eating. Leave the table to blow your nose and do not make any loud noises at the table.
  • The number four is considered unlucky (tetraphobia) due to its similarity to the Chinese character for death (common in East Asian nations). Even giving gifts in multiples of four is unadvisable. Contrarily, the number seven is considered lucky.
  • Kissing in public is discouraged, especially around older Koreans, as it is considered highly immodest.
  • Physical contact can be considered a personal violation, this includes back slapping and patting. Unless you have a very close relationship with someone, it is advisable not to touch them.

SCAMS

  • Fake Hotel Scams: South Korea has the world fastest internet connections and the greatest internet penetration. Accordingly, a proportional amount of criminal activity and scams are based online. Travellers frequently are targeted by false websites offering modern hotels at low prices. Upon arrival, the hotel either does not exist, or is poorly maintained or an unregistered bedsit. Travellers are advised to undertake proper due diligence on any accommodation or book through a reputable agency.
  • Begging: Foreigners in South Korea can be specifically targeted by beggars who may solicit donations forcefully or apply pressure through unsolicited physical contact. Avoid giving any indication of where your wallet or cash is stored in case they are seeking to distract you for a pickpocket.
  • The ‘Taxis Parked in Front of Your Hotel’ Scam: In front of many four & five-star hotel there are taxis waiting all day. Despite appearances, these taxis are not associated with the hotel. These drivers may not switch on their meters when picking up passengers and instead insist on an excessive charge whilst already in motion. Travellers should be aware of taxis which wait outside of hotels. If you need a taxi, ask your hotel to order one for you from a reputable company and ensure they meter your journey. If the vehicle has a meter, it should be used, if not, agree the price before setting off.
  • The ‘Tour guide’ Scam: A traveller will be approached by a friendly local who speaks good English and has some anecdotes about the traveller’s country of birth. They offer to take the tourist on a tour for a tiny price. For the whole excursion, they seem genuine and kind, however will make efforts to steer travellers towards businesses owned by relatives or friends, who will then pressure the travellers to purchase merchandise at heavily elevated prices. Travellers should be cautious of strangers with intentions too good to be true; invariably they are. If you wish to take a sightseeing tour, prearrange through a reputable agent.
  • Overcharging: Travellers should be aware that foreigners can be overcharged while shopping. This can be intentional or unintentional (inability to read or understand labels). In restaurants, adhere to dishes on the menu and check the bill prior to payment.
  • Racism: Travellers to, and foreign residents in, South Korea have noted a prevalence of racism within the country. Travellers should note that, unlike many countries in the west, South Korea is ethnically homogenous, with more than 99 percent of inhabitants having Korean ethnicity. The judiciary in South Korea have been accused of being heavily biased against foreigners. If there is a dispute with a local, the law will almost always rule in favour of the local against the foreigner. Even if physically assaulted by a local, it is possible that retaliation will cause significant legal problems. For road traffic accidents or incidents of dispute, it is important that a Korean speaker or Korean local is contacted, in order to get both sides of the story.


SECURITY SUMMARY

South Korea, or the Republic of Korea (ROK), holds a geographically and politically important position in the region. The country has excellent relations with the United States, China, and increasingly, with Japan. The ROK’s most substantial threat comes from the aggressive North Korea, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The ROK’s alliances are mainly used to help manage the continued threat from the DPRK. ROK-DPRK relations have improved somewhat since the beginning of the year, with both Koreas to march under one flag at the opening ceremony.

Both sides of the demilitarised zone maintain some degree of communication. Indeed, President Moon, elected in 2017, has sought to offer an olive branch to South Korea’s northern neighbour, returning to the ‘Sunshine Policy’ (to a large extent) of the post-millennium leadership in Seoul.

Throughout 2017, Pyongyang has tested a series of missiles including those which passed over Japan. More concerningly, in early September 2017, the DPRK conducted its most powerful nuclear test to date, causing a 6.3- magnitude earthquake. While low-level border skirmishes have taken place historically, especially over the disputed Yeonpyeong Islands, the chances for an imminent return to full-blown conflict before or during the Olympics remain unlikely. This is due to the present relationships. The US maintains a force of nearly 30,000 personnel in the ROK to assist in the country’s defence. Also, North Korea maintains a largely friendly relationship with China and Russia which are both sending athletes to compete in the Games (the latter under a neutral flag). Moreover, North Korea athletes, including two figure skaters, are due to compete at the Games.

These facts ensure that the risk of a DPRK missile attack during the Games is LOW.


GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE

Although South Korea can be considered very safe (especially in terms of crime and terrorist threat), it is advisable to remain aware of your surroundings to at least the same degree as you would in any other developed country.

Take extra care of passports, credit cards and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone or at night, and make sure to use a legitimate means of transport such as public transport or metered taxis.

Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves.

When air pollution is high, follow local advice and stay hydrated, indoors, with the windows closed when possible.

South Korean security forces often hold Civil Emergency Exercises in major cities, usually involving evacuation to a safe area such as a metro station. Although you do not have to participate as a foreign national, it is best to follow the instruction of the authorities when the sirens sound indicating an exercise. Be aware that the judiciary has been accused of being biased against foreigners and will nearly always side with locals in any disputes.

There are heavy penalties for drug offences, even for personal use, and foreign nationals can be detained purely on the basis of drug tests.