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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 27 Mar 2026 – 30 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 30 March.
- US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the USS Tripoli, which has embarked around 2,200 Marines, arrived in the CENTCOM area of responsibility on 27 March. A further 2,000 US Army paratroopers have reportedly been ordered to deploy to the region, with the Pentagon also alleged by US media to be considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops.
- The Houthis’ entry into the conflict on 28 March, marked by strikes against Israel, raises the risk of a broader threat across the Arabian Peninsula if the group escalates its involvement further. The Houthis are almost certainly the most capable Iran-backed proxy force in the region. During the 2014-2022 civil war in Yemen, the Houthis launched multiple attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including international airports and oil and gas infrastructure.
- On 28 March, civil aviation authorities stated that Kuwait International Airport (KWI / OKKK) was impacted by several attack drones, resulting in “significant” damage to the radar system, but no injuries. Another attack on 29 March targeted a service building at an unspecified power and water desalination plant, killing one Indian national.
- Following strikes in the UAE overnight 28-29 March, officials in Abu Dhabi stated that the fire department was dealing with three fires in the Khalifa Industrial Zone caused by ballistic missile debris. At least five people were injured. Emirates Global Aluminium also reported that multiple employees were injured and that the plant sustained “significant damage”.
- Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets, and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 30 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatari airspace is mostly closed but a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 30 March.
On 28 March, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen conducted a series of strikes targeting Israel. While the Houthis’ intervention has so far been limited to Israel, the group’s entry into the conflict has raised concerns that the Houthis could escalate their involvement by resuming attacks against vessels in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb, and Gulf of Aden, and/or conduct strikes against targets in the Arabian Peninsula.
Also on 28 March, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the USS Tripoli (LHA 7), which has embarked around 2,200 Marines, had arrived in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) on 27 March. A further 2,000 US Army paratroopers have reportedly been ordered to deploy to the region, with the Pentagon also alleged by US media to be considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops.
As of 30 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspace remain open.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia came under attack numerous times between 27 and 30 March. On 27 March, US media reported that two US officials briefed that an Iranian strike against Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia resulted in 12 injuries to US personnel, including two seriously injured. Late 27 March, Saudi authorities reported the interception of a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh. On 28 March, Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry announced the interception of at least five attack drones over unspecified territories. On 29 March, Saudi authorities stated that a cruise missile was intercepted heading towards the eastern region. On 30 March, the public was urged to take shelter in Saudi Arabia’s eastern region and Al-Kharj Governorate, with five missiles claimed to have been intercepted heading towards the eastern region, and a total of seven drones intercepted.
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan, on 29 March for a four-way meeting with counterparts from Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, reportedly to discuss diplomatic pathways to ending the conflict. Saudi Arabia’s attendance at the summit follows reports regarding the potential entry of Saudi Arabia into the war against Iran, which international media have claimed is under consideration in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia’s entry into the war with kinetic operations against Iran would highly likely lead to escalated Iranian strikes against targets in Saudi Arabia.
At least two people have been killed and 20 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 10:30 UTC on 27 March.
As of 30 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open. Late 27 March and early 28 March, operations were temporarily suspended firstly at King Fahd International Airport (DMM) in Dammam, and then King Khalid International Airport (RUH) in Riyadh, with operations resuming shortly afterwards in both instances. Philippines Airlines announced on 28 March that flights to Riyadh would be suspended until 1 April.
Kuwait
On 27 March, Kuwait’s National Guard claimed to have intercepted six attack drones over the past 24 hours. On 28 March, civil aviation authorities stated that Kuwait International Airport (KWI / OKKK) was impacted by several attack drones, resulting in “significant” damage to the radar system, but no injuries. Air defences once again activated overnight 28-29 March, intercepting 14 ballistic missiles and 12 attack drones, according to the Ministry of Defence. On 29 March, the Kuwaiti military stated that 10 personnel were injured following a drone attack on an unspecified military camp. Another attack targeted a service building at an unspecified power and water desalination plant, killing one Indian national. Air defences reportedly intercepted five attack drones overnight.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 March.
As of 30 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Overnight 27-28 March, air raid sirens activated as air defences intercepted another wave of Iranian strikes. A fire reportedly broke out at an unspecified location following the attack. On 28 March, Bahrain’s military stated that 20 missiles and 23 attack drones were intercepted overnight. Authorities subsequently banned all drone use until further notice. Air raid sirens sounded again overnight 28-29 March, with attack drones reportedly impacting an aluminium plant in Riffa. Bahrain claimed that air defences intercepted six drones over the previous 24 hours. Bahrain’s Foulath Holding, which controls Bahrain Steel and SULB steel company, declared force majeure, citing regional conditions, suspending “certain operational activities” until further notice. Sirens once again sounded overnight 29-30 March, with air defences reportedly intercepting seven attack drones and eight ballistic missiles.
One person reportedly died while in police custody. The individual had been arrested on the accusation of spying for Iran. The statement followed small demonstrations, with protesters claiming the individual had been tortured. On 28 March, the anti-government group reported that the whereabouts of the other five arrested remain unknown. This is likely to prompt further protests.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 March.
As of 30 March, the Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. Passengers wishing to depart the region have been able to depart via King Fahd International Airport (DMM) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, depending on the operational status of the airport, the King Fahd Causeway, and shelter-in-place advisories.
Qatar
On 28 March, Qatar’s Ministry of Defence announced that Qatar was targeted by several attack drones. On 30 March, Qatar’s Interior Ministry stated that a fire was brought under control at a garage in the industrial area; the cause of the fire is unknown.
On 28 March, Qatar signed a defence cooperation agreement with Ukraine. Ukraine manufactures highly capable and cheaply produced means of intercepting Shahed-family attack drones, a threat which the Gulf States have struggled to intercept at the high rates Ukraine achieves against Russia. The provision of Ukrainian expertise and counter-drone capabilities would highly likely improve interception rates against Iranian attack drones.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 March.
As of 30 March, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, a limited number of Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission.
UAE
Air defences were activated overnight 27-28 March, with Emirati authorities stating that the military was responding to incoming ballistic missiles and attack drones. Officials in Abu Dhabi stated that the fire department was dealing with three fires in the Khalifa Industrial Zone caused by ballistic missile debris. At least five people, all Indian nationals, were injured. Emirates Global Aluminium also reported that multiple employees were injured and that the plant sustained “significant damage”. On 28 March, the military stated they shot down 37 attack drones and 20 ballistic missiles in the previous 24 hours. Air defences were reactivated overnight 28-29 March, against another wave of ballistic missiles and attack drones. On 29 March, the Defence Ministry stated that air defences intercepted 16 ballistic missiles and 42 attack drones over the past day. Interceptions continued overnight 29-30 March, with explosions reported over Dubai. On 30 March, air defences reportedly engaged 11 ballistic missiles and 27 attack drones.
On 28 March, the UAE signed a defence cooperation agreement with Ukraine. Ukraine manufactures highly capable and cheaply produced means of intercepting Shahed-family attack drones, a threat which the Gulf States have struggled to intercept at the high rates Ukraine achieves against Russia. The provision of Ukrainian expertise and counter-drone capabilities would highly likely improve interception rates against Iranian attack drones.
At least 11 people have been killed and 169 injured in the UAE, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 March.
As of 30 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
On 28 March, two attack drones reportedly targeted the Port of Salalah, resulting in one worker being injured and limited damage to a crane. The Danish shipping company Maersk subsequently announced that the “port was immediately evacuated and operations across the facility were temporarily suspended.” While the attack drones have not been directly claimed by Iran, the IRGC claimed on 28 March to have targeted a US military support vessel “at a considerable distance from the port of Salalah in Oman”.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 March.
As of 30 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, including oil and gas infrastructure, desalination facilities, and airports. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
The Houthis’ entry into the conflict on 28 March, marked by strikes against Israel, raises the risk of a broader threat across the Arabian Peninsula if the group escalates its involvement further. The Houthis are almost certainly the most capable Iran-backed proxy force in the region, although Tehran highly likely exercises less direct control over the Houthis in comparison to other groups in the ‘Axis of Resistance’, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
During the 2014-2022 civil war in Yemen, in which a Saudi Arabia-led coalition intervened on behalf of the internationally recognised Yemeni government (IRG), the Houthis launched multiple attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, including international airports and oil and gas infrastructure. The Houthis are likely cautious about restarting hostilities with Saudi Arabia due to the potentially high threat to the Houthis posed by a full restart of the civil war. However, the Houthis targeting Saudi Arabia cannot be ruled out, particularly if the Iranian regime is further existentially threatened. With the Strait of Hormuz being de facto closed to most maritime traffic, the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea has become increasingly critical to the global supply of crude, with the Houthis capable of complicating this maritime route by resuming attacks against vessels.
Moreover, the UAE backed the separatist Southern Transition Council (STC) in Yemen, a group which was reportedly preparing for potential ground operations against the Houthis until their disbandment in early 2026 following conflict with the Saudi-backed IRG. The Houthis have conducted attacks against the UAE as recently as 2022, where an attack using long-range attack drones and ballistic missiles in January 2022 struck fuel trucks near Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH / OMAA) and killed three civilians, for example.
US and/or Israeli targeting of Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, power plants, and economic interests such as banks, in addition to the killing of senior Iranian military or political officials, will likely trigger increased rates of Iranian strikes in retaliation, as has occurred earlier in the conflict.
Furthermore, the potential involvement of US and/or Israeli ground forces to conduct operations in Iran’s Kharg Island, against Iran’s buried enriched uranium at Isfahan and Natanz, or the Iranian coastline around the Strait of Hormuz, would also likely trigger intensified Iranian retaliation strikes. In response to a threat issued by US President Donald Trump on 23 March to attack Iranian power plants, senior Iranian figures and IRGC-linked media issued threats to conduct attacks against desalination and power plants across the region, and Iranian strikes have already targeted desalination plants on several occasions. The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes.
Interception rates across the region remain high, although they have notably decreased since the start of the conflict, with numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. Reporting indicates that the volume of both Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones launched at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US/Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high enough to conduct daily attacks, and Iran continues to be capable of launching lower-volume ballistic missile attacks, particularly at high-value targets (HVTs) such as oil and gas infrastructure.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior reiterated on 27 March that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.” In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with around 70 British nationals reported to have been arrested for filming drones and missiles, for example. In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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