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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 25 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 27 March.
- On 27 March, US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days to 6 April. The ultimatum initially led to Iranian threats against desalination and power plants across the region.
- A combined attack drone and cruise missile attack led to material damage at Mubarak al Kabeer Port in Kuwait, with no injuries recorded, and an attack drone strike against Shuwaikh Port also resulted in material damage but no injuries.
- On 26 March, at least two people were killed, and multiple others were injured when debris from a ballistic missile interception fell onto Sweihan Road, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Pakistani, Indian, Emirati and Jordanian citizens were reportedly among the casualties.
- The potential entry of Saudi Arabia into the war against Iran, which remains reportedly under consideration in Riyadh, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran.
- Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets, and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 27 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 27 March.
On 27 March, US President Donald Trump extended the deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 10 days, to 6 April. President Trump initially issued a 48-hour deadline on 21 March, with threats against Iranian power plants, then extended it to five days on 23 March. The ultimatum led to Iranian threats against desalination and power plants across the region.
Iran announced on 25 March that it had received a 15-point peace proposal from Washington, but that this “does not mean negotiations with the US.” In an apparent rejection of the plan, Iran presented a 5-point counterproposal that included Iran’s “exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz”. President Trump’s claims of ongoing negotiations with Iran have been repeatedly denied by Tehran, although Germany’s foreign minister stated on 27 March that, based on his information, there have been indirect contacts and preparations may be underway for a US-Iran meeting soon in Pakistan.
The US is deploying 2,200 Marines and 2,000 Army paratroopers to the region, which could be preparation for potential ground operations against Iran’s Kharg Island or Iran’s coast around the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is reportedly considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the region.
As of 27 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains restricted, although arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are now allowed once permission has been given. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspace remain open.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi authorities reported repeated interceptions of attack drones throughout 25 March and into 26 March, particularly in Eastern Province. On 26 March, the Saudi military stated that it had downed at least 39 attack drones, including four identified over Eastern Province. Later on 26 March, the Defence Ministry stated that two ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh were intercepted, with four additional missiles falling into the Arabian Gulf. Moreover, there were reportedly interceptions of three attack drones in the Riyadh region, with debris falling near an undisclosed military site with no injuries reported.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on 27 March the signing of a defence cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia. Ukraine possesses highly capable means of intercepting Shahed-family attack drones, a threat which the Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, have struggled to intercept at the high rates Ukraine achieves against Russia. The provision of Ukrainian expertise and counter-drone capabilities would highly likely improve Saudi interception rates against Iranian attack drones.
The potential entry of Saudi Arabia into the war against Iran, which remains reportedly under consideration in Riyadh, would likely lead to escalated Iranian strikes against targets in Saudi Arabia.
At least two people have been killed and 20 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 11:30 UTC on 26 March.
As of 27 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
On 25 March, Kuwait’s Interior Ministry stated that it had thwarted a terrorist plot linked to Hezbollah, arresting six people, including five Kuwaiti citizens. Air defences responded to ballistic missiles and attack drones overnight 25-26 March, with the Kuwaiti military stating that it intercepted two attack drones. Air defences again operated overnight 26-27 March to intercept ballistic missiles and attack drones, with another two attack drones reportedly intercepted. On 27 March, a combined attack drone and cruise missile attack led to material damage at Mubarak al Kabeer Port in Kuwait, with no injuries recorded, and an attack drone strike against Shuwaikh Port also resulted in material damage but no injuries.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 11:30 UTC on 26 March.
As of 27 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Overnight 25-26 March, Bahrain reactivated its air raid sirens and reported an Iranian ballistic missile strike in Muharraq, with a structure catching fire. The blaze was brought under control, with no injuries reported. Unverified reports claimed that a gas leak occurred following the strike, with the damaged structure situated close to the airport. Authorities reportedly sent out a message to residents in the vicinity to close their windows. Air raid sirens were once again activated on 27 March due to possible nearby attack drones.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 11:30 UTC on 26 March.
As of 27 March, the Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. Passengers wishing to depart the region are able to depart via King Fahd International Airport (DMM) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
Qatar
On 27 March, Qatar’s Interior Ministry advised residents to shelter in place due to incoming attack drones. The alert was subsequently lifted. The Interior Ministry also urged the public to enable alerts and notifications on their phones from the National Warning System to remain informed.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 11:30 UTC on 26 March.
As of 27 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. Arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are allowed after permission has been given.
UAE
Air defences were activated overnight 25-26 March, with authorities stating that air defences responded to ballistic missile and attack drone strikes. On 26 March, at least two people were killed, and multiple others were injured when debris from a ballistic missile interception fell onto Sweihan Road, Abu Dhabi. Pakistani, Indian, Emirati and Jordanian citizens were reportedly among the casualties. On 26 March, UAE authorities stated that its air defences dealt with 11 attack drones and 15 ballistic missiles coming from Iran over the previous 24 hours. Air defences were activated again on 27 March.
Heavy rain took place overnight 26-27 March, leading to flooding in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
At least 11 people have been killed and 169 injured in the UAE, as of 11:30 UTC on 26 March.
As of 27 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
A storm system in the region has led to heavy rainfall and flash flooding in Oman. On 26 March, Omani authorities issued a warning for heavy rainfall from 01:00 local time to 22:00 local time on 27 March.
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring UAE, and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 11:30 UTC on 26 March.
As of 27 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, including oil and gas infrastructure, desalination facilities, and airports. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
While the content of Washington’s 15-point peace plan remains unconfirmed, Iran will highly unlikely agree to all the points specified. It is unlikely that Iran will currently accept concessions that significantly diminish its future deterrence against renewed US and/or Israeli attacks, such as strict limits on its ballistic missile programme. Tehran is likely to consider movement solely on the nuclear file, but regional actors, such as Saudi Arabia, highly likely fear any peace agreement which would maintain Iran as a wounded but surviving hostile state with continued broad ballistic missile capabilities and support for its proxy forces.
It is likely that many senior figures in Tehran assess that Washington’s attempts to conduct peace negotiations may be a ruse, due to general distrust and the deployment of ground forces to the region, which, as of 27 March, remains limited.
The potential entry of Saudi Arabia into the war against Iran, which remains reportedly under consideration in Riyadh, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran. With Iranian attacks against the Gulf States having been so significant, figures such as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman likely calculate that deterrence against Iran may need to be re-established with offensive operations.
US and/or Israeli targeting of Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, power plants, and economic interests such as banks, in addition to the killing of senior Iranian military or political officials, will likely trigger increased rates of Iranian strikes in retaliation, as occurred earlier in the conflict. Furthermore, the potential involvement of US and/or Israeli ground forces to seize targets such as Iran’s Kharg Island would also likely trigger increased Iranian retaliation strikes. In response to a threat issued by US President Donald Trump on 23 March to attack Iranian power plants, senior Iranian figures and IRGC-linked media issued threats to conduct attacks against desalination and power plants across the region. The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes.
Interception rates across the region overall remain high, although they have notably decreased since the start of the conflict, with numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates that the volume of both Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones launched at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high enough to conduct almost daily attacks, and Iran continues to be capable of launching lower-volume ballistic missile attacks, particularly at high-value targets (HVTs) such as oil and gas infrastructure.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 45 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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