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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 23 Mar 2026 – 25 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 25 March.
- On 23 March, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia is strongly considering entering the war against Iran. With Iranian attacks against the Gulf States having been so significant, Saudi Arabia likely calculates that deterrence against Iran may need to be re-established with offensive operations. The entry of Saudi Arabia, in addition to potentially other Gulf States such as the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, into the war against Iran, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran into these countries.
- A rare storm system has moved through the region this week, leading to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
- On 24 March, Amazon Web Services (AWS) stated that it had been “disrupted” following attack drone activity in Bahrain, although it is unconfirmed whether Amazon’s Bahrain facility was directly hit by an attack drone or if the disruption was due to nearby strikes.
- On 25 March, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts with South Korea, Italy, Belgium, and China following damage to key production facilities caused by an Iranian ballistic missile strike overnight 18-19 March.
- Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The scale of Iranian ballistic missile and attack drone strike packages launched at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drone and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 25 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Jordan’s airspaces are open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 25 March.
On 23 March, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia had recently “agreed to let American forces use its King Fahd air base”, according to anonymous sources briefing the media, and that “[i]t is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war”, according to one source. Moreover, the UAE has engaged in a domestic crackdown on Iranian-owned assets, and verified footage indicates that the US launched ballistic missiles against Iran from the territory of Bahrain.
A rare storm system has moved through the region this week, leading to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
As of 25 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling a highly limited number of departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission, but the airspace is effectively closed to almost all commercial flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains restricted, although arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are now allowed after permission has been given. Saudi Arabia’s airspace is fully open, and Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
On 23 March, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia had recently “agreed to let American forces use its King Fahd air base”, according to anonymous sources briefing the media, and that “[i]t is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war”, according to one source.
Overnight 23-24 March, at least five attack drones were intercepted over the Eastern Province. More were downed on 24 March. Flight operations at King Fahd International Airport (DMM / OEDF) in Dammam were temporarily suspended for an hour on 24 March, highly likely as a precautionary response to Iranian strikes. Overnight 24-25 March, air defences intercepted a ballistic missile and multiple attack drones over the Eastern Province. On 25 March, Saudi Arabia’s civil defence stated that shrapnel from an intercepted ballistic missile fell on two houses in the Eastern Province; no injuries were reported.
At least two people have been killed and 20 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 07:30 UTC on 25 March.
As of 25 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
On 23 March, the British military stated that a ground-based counter-drone system successfully downed two attack drones overnight 22-23 March. Overnight 23-24 March, air defence systems were activated and power outages were reported as debris fell onto seven power lines. On 24 March, Kuwait’s Defence Ministry stated that it detected 17 ballistic missiles and 13 attack drones over the previous 24 hours. Air defence systems were subsequently activated again, with an attack drone igniting a fuel tank fire at Kuwait International Airport (KWI / OKKK); no injuries were reported. Further attack drones were downed overnight 24-25 March.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 07:30 UTC on 25 March.
As of 25 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Air raid sirens were activated overnight 23-24 March. On 24 March, Bahrain’s military stated that a soldier from the UAE was killed by an Iranian strike on its territory, with the UAE’s Ministry of Defence later confirming that the military personnel killed was a civilian contractor from Morocco; five other Emirati troops were injured in the same attack. On 24 March, Amazon Web Services (AWS) stated that it had been “disrupted” following attack drone activity in the area, although it is unconfirmed whether Amazon’s Bahrain facility was directly hit by an attack drone or if the disruption was due to nearby strikes. Air raid sirens were once again activated overnight 24-25 March, with air defence systems intercepting attack drones over the country’s airspace.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 07:30 UTC on 25 March.
As of 25 March, the Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. Bahrain is enabling a highly limited number of departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission, but the airspace is effectively closed to almost all commercial flights.
Qatar
On 25 March, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts with South Korea, Italy, Belgium, and China following damage to key production facilities caused by an Iranian ballistic missile strike overnight 18-19 March. The Ministry of Interior announced that social events may be held in open spaces from 25 March with the coordination with relevant authorities.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 07:30 UTC on 25 March.
As of 25 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. Arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are allowed after permission has been given.
UAE
The UAE’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) stated on 24 March that its air defences had intercepted five ballistic missiles and 17 attack drones launched by Iran, compared to seven ballistic missiles and 16 attack drones on 23 March. On 24 March, Bahraini authorities announced that a member of the Emirati armed forces was killed in Bahrain during an Iranian missile attack on Bahrain, with the UAE’s MOD stating that the fatality was a Moroccan national and civilian contractor who was killed, along with injuries to five members of the UAE’s MOD.
Separately from the Middle East conflict, the regional storm system led to orange-level storm warnings being issued for Abu Dhabi, and a yellow-level alert for Dubai, Al Ain and Fujairah on 24 March. On 25 March, the UAE’s interior ministry issued a warning for hail, high winds, and lightning on 25 March, urging the public to take caution.
At least eight people have been killed and 161 injured in the UAE, as of 07:30 UTC on 25 March.
As of 25 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
Separately from the Middle East conflict, a storm system in the region has led to heavy rainfall and flash flooding in Oman. Five deaths were recorded over the weekend from flooding in the Al Batinah South region, and another flood-related death was recorded in Khasab on 24 March. As of 25 March, the governorates of Al Buraimi, A’Dhahirah, Musandam, North Al Batinah, South Al Batinah, Al Dakhiliyah, and North Al Sharqiyah are experiencing heavy thunderstorms. Hilal Salim Al Hajri, Head of the Forecasting and Early Warning System Department at the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), stated that the forecasts for 26 March indicate relative calm.
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring UAE, and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 07:30 UTC on 25 March.
As of 25 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
The reports of Saudi Arabia considering entering the war against Iran, in addition to the UAE’s crackdown on Iranian assets and verified footage of US ballistic missiles being launched from Bahrain against Iran, are likely to have an impact on the region’s threat environment. Prior to the current conflict beginning on 28 February, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States publicly stated that the US would not be able to use its military facilities and airspace for offensive operations against Iran, almost certainly in an effort to ward off potential Iranian retaliation.
However, with Iranian attacks against the Gulf States having been so significant, figures such as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman likely calculate that deterrence against Iran may need to be re-established with offensive operations. The entry of Saudi Arabia, in addition to potentially other Gulf States such as the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar, into the war against Iran, would highly likely result in an increased rate and scale of retaliation attacks being launched by Iran into these countries.
US or Israeli targeting of Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, power plants, and economic interests such as banks, in addition to the killing of senior Iranian military or political officials, will likely trigger increased rates of Iranian strikes in retaliation, as occurred earlier in the conflict. Furthermore, the potential involvement of US and/or Israeli ground forces to seize targets such as Iran’s Kharg Island would also likely trigger increased Iranian retaliation strikes. In response to a threat issued by US President Donald Trump on 23 March to attack Iranian power plants, senior Iranian figures and IRGC-linked media issued threats to conduct attacks against desalination and power plants across the region. The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes.
Interception rates across the region overall remain high, although they have notably decreased since the start of the conflict, with numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates that the volume of both Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones launched at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US-Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high enough to conduct almost daily attacks, and Iran continues to be capable of launching sporadic ballistic missiles, particularly at high-value targets (HVTs) such as oil and gas infrastructure.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 45 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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