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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 18 Mar 2026 – 20 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 20 March.
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported on 20 March that its spokesman was killed in overnight strikes by the US and Israel. This follows a series of high-profile “assassinations” of senior Iranian military and political figures, which have triggered retaliation attacks from Iran.
- On 20 March, Iran issued a threat to US and Israeli officials and military personnel, stating they will not be safe in “resorts and tourist centres around the world.”
- In retaliation for the Israeli attack against the Iranian South Pars gas field on 18 March, Iranian forces conducted significant strikes targeting oil and gas facilities across the region.
- UAE authorities announced that they had dismantled a terrorist network operating in the country, which had links to Hezbollah and Iran.
- Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, regular attack drones and lower volume ballistic missile attacks are likely to remain frequent in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 20 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait; Bahrain’s airspace is effectively closed with very limited exceptions; Qatar is allowing limited flights with prior permission; the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; and Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 20 March.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported on 20 March that its spokesman, Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naini, was killed in overnight strikes by the US and Israel. This follows a series of high-profile “assassinations” of senior Iranian military and political figures, which have triggered retaliation attacks from Iran. On 20 March, Iran issued a threat to US and Israeli officials and military personnel, stating they will not be safe in “resorts and tourist centres around the world.”
In retaliation for the Israeli attack against the Iranian South Pars gas field on 18 March, Iranian forces conducted significant strikes targeting oil and gas facilities across the region, including the Ras Laffan LNG field in Qatar, the Habshan gas facility in the UAE, the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait, and the SAMREF oil facility in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia.
As of 20 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling a highly limited number of departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission, but the airspace is effectively closed to almost all flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains restricted, although arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are now allowed after permission has been given. The airspace remains closed to overflights. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
Overnight 18-19 March, explosions were heard over Riyadh, with the military stating that it was defending against a missile attack. Attack alerts were also issued in Al-Kharj. Debris struck multiple locations in Riyadh after four ballistic missiles were intercepted, reportedly injuring four people. Attack drone interceptions were also reported over an unspecified gas field in Saudi Arabia’s eastern region and near Al-Kharj, with a ballistic missile intercepted over the eastern region. Early 19 March, Saudi military officials say two Iranian attack drones and two ballistic missiles were destroyed over the country’s Eastern Province, with another four attack drones intercepted. On 20 March, Saudi authorities stated they had intercepted at least 15 drones, mostly over the Eastern Province.
Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry says forces intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile near the port of Yanbu in western Al-Madinah province on 19 March. An attack drone also targeted the SAMREF oil facility in Yanbu, resulting in “minimal impact” to the facility’s operations. These attacks mark the first in Saudi Arabia’s western region. Oil loadings were temporarily suspended as a result.
At least two people have been killed and 16 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 12:30 UTC on 19 March.
As of 20 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports. As a result of incoming attacks, major flight disruptions were recorded at Dammam’s King Fahd International Airport (DMM) on 18 March.
Kuwait
Early 19 March, air defences were activated in Kuwait against ballistic missiles and attack drones. Following a strike from an attack drone, a fire broke out at Mina al-Ahmadi refinery. The blaze was subsequently extinguished, with authorities confirming that there were no injuries. A second refinery, Mina al-Abdullah, was hit shortly after, sparking another fire, which was subsequently extinguished with no reports of injuries. Operations at the two refineries have been suspended.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 12:30 UTC on 19 March.
As of 20 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Overnight 18-19 March, and on 19 March, Bahrain activated its air raid sirens multiple times, with the public urged to take shelter.
At least two people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 12:30 UTC on 19 March.
As of 20 March, the Bahraini airspace is closed with very limited exceptions. Bahrain is enabling a highly limited number of departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission, but the airspace is effectively closed to almost all flights.
Qatar
On 18 March, an Iranian ballistic missile caused significant damage and started a fire at the Ras Laffan terminal, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility. Four out of five ballistic missiles targeting the facility were reportedly intercepted. Following the strike, Qatar issued a nationwide shelter-at-home order due to the elevated “security threat level” and asked Iranian security and military attaches and staff to leave the country within 24 hours. The fire was subsequently brought under control but was still being dealt with on 19 March. The strike was almost certainly conducted in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars Gas Field.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 12:30 UTC on 19 March.
As of 20 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. Arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are allowed after permission has been given.
UAE
Overnight 18-19 March, air defence systems intercepted Iranian strikes over the country. The UAE halted operations at the Habshan gas facility after the site was hit by debris. On 19 March, the UAE military claimed to have shot down seven ballistic missiles and 15 attack drones. Further explosions were heard, with air defences activated.
On 20 March, UAE officials stated that they had dismantled a “terrorist network” funded by Hezbollah and Iran, arresting an unspecified number of members. According to authorities, the group engaged in money laundering, terrorist financing, and posed a threat to national security.
At least eight people have been killed and 158 injured in the UAE, as of 12:30 UTC on 19 March.
As of 20 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring UAE and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 12:30 UTC on 19 March.
As of 20 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
Any further strikes conducted by Israel and/or the US against Iranian oil and gas infrastructure will highly likely be met with increased Iranian targeting of oil and gas facilities across the region, as followed the 18 March Israeli attack against the South Pars gas field. Moreover, the killing of senior Iranian military or political officials will likewise trigger increased rates of Iranian strikes in retaliation, as followed the 17 March killing of Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani.
While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates that the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended ballistic missile stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US-Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 45 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.

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