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Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 16 Mar 2026 – 17 Mar 2026

  • Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 17 March.
  • On 17 March, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, stated that Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, and the commander of the paramilitary militia Basij, Gholamreza Soleimani, had been killed in overnight strikes. If confirmed, the killing of two senior leadership figures in Iran is likely to trigger an increased rate of Iranian strikes across the region in retaliation.
  • The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March. 16 March recorded the highest daily number of combined missiles and drones targeting Saudi Arabia, at 72.
  • The UAE’s Ministry of Defence claimed that ten ballistic missiles and 45 attack drones had been intercepted so far on 17 March at 11:35 UTC. At least three explosions were reportedly heard in Dubai; and authorities stated that a Pakistani national was killed by debris in the Bani Yas area of Abu Dhabi.
  • Iran has continued strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
  • The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
  • As of 17 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain and Qatar are allowing limited flights, requiring prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.

Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice

To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.

On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 17 March.

On 17 March, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, stated that Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, had been killed in overnight strikes. Israel also claimed to have killed Gholamreza Soleimani,  the commander of the Basij, the internal security paramilitary militia of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). If confirmed, the killing of two senior leadership figures in Iran is likely to trigger an increased rate of Iranian strikes across the region in retaliation.

As of 17 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, the airspace remains restricted, although arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are now allowed after permission has been given. The airspace remains closed to overflights. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.

On 17 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that air defences had intercepted at least 15 drones in the country’s Eastern Province. The volume of Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia has markedly increased since 12 March, with 16 March recording the highest daily number of combined missiles and drones, 72, fired at Saudi Arabia. The areas most targeted are Riyadh, Al-Kharj (where the Prince Sultan Air Base is located), and the Eastern Province (where key Saudi oil refineries are located).

At least two people have been killed and 12 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.

As of 17 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports.

Overnight 16-17 March, explosions were heard over Kuwait as air defences intercepted ballistic missiles and attack drones. Two medical personnel were reportedly injured after shrapnel from a ballistic missile fell on an ambulance centre. Late 16 March, Kuwaiti authorities claimed to have intercepted seven attack drones over the previous 24 hours.

On 17 March, the Kuwaiti Interior Ministry stated that a cell of alleged Hezbollah fighters involving 14 Kuwaiti nationals and two Lebanese nationals had been arrested in the country. The counterterrorism operation resulted in the seizure of weapons, communication devices, drones, maps, narcotics, cash and Hezbollah paraphernalia.

At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.

As of 17 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.

On 17 March, the Chief of the Terrorism Crimes Prosecution announced that several suspects had been detained following the publishing on social media videos that “glorify, promote, and encourage terrorist acts carried out against Bahrain”.

At least two people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.

As of 17 March, the Bahraini airspace is heavily restricted. On 13 March, Bahrain amended its airspace closure, enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission.

Early 17 March, Qatar’s Interior Ministry urged residents to remain indoors shortly before explosions were heard over Doha. The Defence Ministry subsequently announced that air defences had intercepted several ballistic missiles over the country’s airspace. A fire burned in Qatar’s industrial district from debris from an intercepted ballistic missile.

At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.

As of 17 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. Arrivals and departures via defined waypoints are allowed after permission has been given. The airspace is still closed for overflights.

The UAE’s Ministry of Defence claimed that ten ballistic missiles and 45 attack drones had been intercepted so far on 17 March at 11:35 UTC. Authorities earlier issued multiple incoming threat alerts, urged residents to stay in safe locations, before later stating the situation was safe. At least three explosions were reportedly heard in Dubai; and authorities stated that a Pakistani national was killed by debris in the Bani Yas area of Abu Dhabi.

At least seven people have been killed and 145 injured in the UAE, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.

As of 17 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.

Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.

At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 01:30 UTC on 16 March.

As of 17 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.


Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities. Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened to carry out further attacks on US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.

While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.

Reporting indicates that the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended ballistic missile stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US-Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term.

Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems.

It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 45 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.