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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 08 Mar 2026 – 09 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
- As of 9 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
- Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- Overnight 8-9 March, at least 32 people were injured in the Sitra area south of Manama, following an alleged drone strike on a residential area. All those injured were Bahraini citizens. Contrary to initial reports, videos shared on social media show an interceptor missile mistakenly striking the area. The exact cause of the injuries remains unconfirmed.
- On 8 March, Saudi officials reported that two people were killed and several more injured by a strike on a residential area in Al-Kharj. These are the first reported casualties recorded in Saudi Arabia since the start of the conflict.
- On 9 March, Iranian officials selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the regime’s new Supreme Leader. The appointment constitutes a victory for the hardline political and religious factions of the Islamic Republic, and for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). US officials have threatened to target Khamenei.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 9 March.
As of 9 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait and Bahrain. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. Qatar has suspended flights and closed its airspace to most commercial traffic, with only limited repatriation flights permitted. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
On 8 March, Saudi officials stated that two people died and twelve were injured after an unspecified “military projectile” fell in a residential location in Al-Kharj governorate. This is the first confirmed attack resulting in casualties in Saudi Arabia. Earlier, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had stated that they targeted radar installations in Al-Kharj. The Prince Sultan Air Base is located approximately 20km southeast of Al-Kharj and is regularly used by US forces.
As of 9 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports.
Kuwait
On 9 March, Iran’s IRGC stated that its navy targeted Al-Adiri helicopter airbase with attack drones and cruise missiles. The IRGC claims to have destroyed the base’s fuel and gas tanks, US helicopter ramps, and logistics and support facilities. Overnight 8-9 March, the Kuwait Defence Ministry stated that air defences were activated in response to the missile and drone threat.
The Kuwait Electricity Ministry stated that a small fire in one fuel tank was extinguished after breaking out at Subiya Power and Water Distillation Plant; drone fragments were discovered at the fire’s origin. Another fire was recorded at Shuwaikh Power and Water Distillation Station on 9 March. The two facilities are located on opposite sides of Kuwait Bay. The plants are critical in supplying both electricity and desalinated water to Kuwait’s population and industry. The Kuwaiti military stated that three ballistic missiles were shot down in total on 8 March.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 15:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 9 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Air raid sirens sounded in Bahrain on 9 March, with the public urged to seek shelter. A fire was reported at the Bapco oil refinery in Al-Mu’amirah, south of Manama, after Iranian strikes. No casualties were reported; however, Bapco Energies declared force majeure on the group’s operations.
Overnight 8-9 March, at least 32 people were injured (four in critical condition) in the Sitra area south of Manama, following an alleged drone strike on a residential area. All those injured were Bahraini citizens. Contrary to initial reports, unverified footage shared on social media potentially indicates an interceptor missile mistakenly striking the area. The exact cause of the injuries remains unconfirmed.
At least one person has been killed, and 40 have been injured in Bahrain, as of 15:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 9 March, the airspace remains closed in Bahrain.
Qatar
On 9 March, Qatar’s military stated that it intercepted 17 ballistic missiles and six attack drones in the latest Iranian attack. Qatar’s Ministry of Defence also stated that its air defences intercepted a “missile attack” overnight, without specifying the number of missiles. Local media reported that explosions, likely from missile interceptions, were heard in Doha.
On 9 March, the Qatari Ministry of Interior stated that the General Directorate of Criminal Investigations had arrested over 300 individuals of various nationalities in connection with the filming, dissemination, and publication of misleading information. The arrests are highly likely associated with the filming of Iranian missile and drone attacks.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 15:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 9 March, the airspace remains restricted in Qatar. On 6 March, the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announced flights would operate through “designated navigational contingency routes with limited operational capacity” in coordination with the Qatari armed forces. Qatar Airways stated that they will operate limited flights from Doha Airport (DOH), with services to airports including Seoul (ICN), London Heathrow (LHR), Delhi (DEL), Madrid (MAD), Islamabad (ISB), and Beijing (PKX) scheduled on 9 and 10 March. Aircraft depart with their transponders switched off as a safety precaution and may not appear on flight tracking platforms.
UAE
On 9 March, the UAE Ministry of Defence stated that two soldiers had died after a helicopter suffered a technical malfunction and crashed at an undisclosed location.
On 9 March, UAE officials stated that they had detected 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones. UAE air defences intercepted 15 missiles, with three falling into the sea, and 17 drones, the last falling in the country’s territory. At least two people were injured in Abu Dhabi in two separate incidents caused by falling debris following successful interceptions. Authorities also reported that falling debris caused a fire in Fujairah near oil sector infrastructure.
At least four people have been killed and 112 injured as of 15:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 9 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is increasingly being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
At least one person has been killed and five injured in Oman, as of 15:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 9 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
On 9 March, Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is the son of his predecessor, Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the opening strikes of the conflict. Mojtaba Khamenei is widely seen as a hardliner, with deep ideological and political ties to the IRGC. US President Donald Trump stated that the new Supreme Leader “[is] going to have to get approval from [the US]” or “he’s not going to last long.” Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment is likely an indication that the Iranian leadership intends to maintain a hardline and aggressive posture rather than pursue immediate de-escalation.
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has further escalated strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities. Recent US and Israeli strikes targeting oil facilities in Iran are likely to result in Iranian retaliatory attacks targeting energy infrastructure and other economically significant targets across the Gulf.
The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes. In Kuwait, 90 per cent of drinking water is obtained from desalination plants, compared with 86 per cent in Oman, 70 per cent in Saudi Arabia, and 42 per cent in the UAE. Sustained attacks on desalination facilities are likely to have significant impacts on national water security.
While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has diminished since 28 February. It is almost certain that the US-Israeli strike campaign, combined with heavy ballistic missile usage, has diminished Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term.
Sustained Iranian drone attacks are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems. Russian intelligence sharing with Iran will likely enable Iran to better identify vulnerabilities in regional air defence networks and refine targeting of future strikes.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, and in Bahrain, two individuals were arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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