Alert+

Heightened Security Risk
Ahead of October 7 Anniversary

Second Anniversary of October 7 Hamas Attack Raises Security Concerns

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 06 OCTOBER 2025

The second anniversary of the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel that precipitated the ongoing conflict in Gaza falls on 7 October 2025. The first anniversary of the attack in 2024 coincided with several notable security developments. In Israel, the Yemen-based Houthis, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, and Hamas launched joint missile and rocket attacks targeting large cities, including Tel Aviv, injuring 12. Also in Israel, large-scale anti-government protests were held to mark the anniversary, with tens of thousands of people in attendance in Tel Aviv and other cities.

Protests were also recorded in several large Western European, Middle Eastern, and American cities. These continued in the days following the anniversary, and particularly on 13 October, the anniversary of the start of the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip following the attack.

Several terrorism-related arrests were also carried out by authorities ahead of the first anniversary of the attack. For example, in Canada, a Pakistani citizen was arrested and subsequently extradited to the US for allegedly planning an attack on behalf of the Islamic State (IS) at a Jewish community centre in New York City on 7 October 2024. More recently, on 1 October 2025, German authorities stated that they had detained three suspected Hamas sympathisers in Berlin, for allegedly planning attacks on Jewish places of worship to coincide with the attack’s second anniversary.

In 2025, several large-scale protests have taken place in the days preceding the anniversary. These have been driven by the detention, in early October, of the vessels of the ‘Global Sumud Flotilla’ by the Israeli military as it attempted to reach Gaza. Violent demonstrations have been recorded in Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Spain, with several cases of vandalism and direct action aimed at shutting down transport in large cities.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

High Risk of Protests and Terrorism Around October 7 Anniversary

The anniversary of the 7 October attack will likely result in an increased risk of civil unrest and terrorism, particularly in Western Europe. This will highly likely be particularly severe in the countries that have had recent large-scale ‘Global Sumud Flotilla’ protests, particularly Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the UK, as protest organisers seek to maximise pressure on their governments and capitalise on the large attendance during the previous demonstrations.

Civil unrest is highly likely to consist of both large-scale demonstrations and small-scale targeted direct actions meant to affect local transport and services. The former are highly likely to target high-visibility areas like the vicinity of Israeli diplomatic offices, local government buildings, and the headquarters of companies perceived to be supporting the Israeli war effort.

A common tactic seen in previous protests is the blockade of main roadways, such as the ring roads that surround most large European cities. In terms of direct action, protesters may seek to carry out targeted acts of vandalism against private and public assets, and particularly company offices, or blockades of public transport hubs, such as train and metro stations and airports. While lower, the threat of more sophisticated acts aimed at causing disruptions, such as the targeting of electrical infrastructure or the use of drones to disrupt airport operations, cannot be ruled out.

The increased likelihood of terrorism on 7 October is driven by the date’s symbolic importance. In addition to the thwarted plot in Germany in early October 2025, there have been several foiled or successful terrorist attacks in Europe and North America, which have coincided with notable dates associated with Judaism or Israeli history. This most recently occurred with the 2 October Manchester synagogue stabbing attack on Yom Kippur, which killed two people and was perpetrated by a highly likely self-radicalised “lone wolf” inspired by extremist Islamist ideology.

While 7 October 2025 remains the most high-risk date for both civil unrest and terrorism, the threat is likely to remain elevated in the short term following the attack anniversary. Protests are highly likely to occur on the 10-13 October period, the first weekend following the anniversary and the second anniversary of the beginning of the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Moreover, ongoing significant developments in negotiations between Hamas and Israel are highly likely to serve as triggers for demonstrations.

Travel and Safety Guidance during Heightened Global Security Risk

Avoid the vicinity of diplomatic offices, government buildings, and places of worship due to higher threats of civil unrest and terrorism.
Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to depart.
If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and withdraw on foot.
Monitor local media for updates on planned protests and disruptions. Allocate additional time for road travel in large urban areas, including to airports.
Always follow all instructions and orders from authorities. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.