19 – 26 March
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Geopolitical, Global Security & Environmental Events
Key Events This Week
America
United States
The upcoming “No Kings” protests, on 28 March, will almost certainly be attended by millions of people in the United States. While the protests are overall likely to be peaceful, isolated violent incidents cannot be ruled out.
Ecuador
Ecuadorian security forces’ large-scale operations against the cartels will highly likely continue in the short term. It is highly likely that Ecuador and the US will further deepen their cooperation against organised criminal groups.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Europe
The pro-Iran group that claimed several recent arson and grenade attacks targeting Jewish communities in Europe is likely a state-sponsored actor, conducting a hybrid warfare campaign directed by Tehran.
Ukraine
The largest strike package launched at Ukraine in a 24-hour period in the war thus far, with almost 1,000 attack drones, likely indicates an evolution in Russian tactics towards daytime attacks, complicating risk management.
Israel & Lebanon
Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon are likely to intensify in the short term. Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Beirut was highly likely aimed at discouraging the Lebanese government form pressuring Hezbollah.
Gulf States
The ultimatum given by the US against Iran, if enacted, would likely lead to Iranian retaliation strikes against desalination plants in the Gulf States, facilities which are critical for regional water security.
Sudan & Chad
Further cross-border attacks would highly likely prompt Chad’s military to fulfil its threats of military operations in Sudan following a drone strike that killed at least 17 at a Chadian funeral.
DRC
An agreement between the DRC and Rwandan governments to “de-escalate tensions” are highly likely symbolic, with the DRC aiming to increase pressure on Rwanda while reclaiming territory captured by AFC/M23.
Asia Pacific
Pakistan & Afghanistan
Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan following a temporary Eid ceasefire highly likely signal a return to fighting, with further cross-border strikes highly likely.
APAC
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz’s impact on multiple countries in the APAC region has a realistic possibility of causing secondary impacts such as civil unrest, particularly in Bangladesh and the Philippines.
Hong Kong
Amendments to Hong Kong’s national security law almost certainly reflect a broader crackdown on freedom of communication, enabling authorities to access mobile phone and computer passwords.
North, Central and South America
USA: Third “No Kings” protests likely to be attended by millions of participants nationwide.
On 28 March, the third instalment of the “No Kings” protest movement is scheduled to take place across the United States. “No Kings” events have been organised by several civil society organisations, such as the 50501 Movement, the No Kings Coalition, and the Indivisible Movement, and oppose the administration of US President Donald Trump. Previous “No Kings” protests occurred in June and October 2025. The June protests recorded an estimated attendance of five million people across more than 2,100 protest locations, while the October protests are estimated to have been attended by more than six million people.
Some “No Kings” protest events are also scheduled to occur in Canada, Mexico, Australia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, Ecuador, and Kenya.
Solace Global Assessment:
In addition to previous “No Kings” events, the upcoming protests also follow large-scale waves of protests in 2026 opposing recent operations by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) federal law enforcement agency, particularly in the state of Minnesota. On 23 and 30 January, two large-scale nationwide protests were held in reaction to the killing of two anti-ICE protesters in Minneapolis. The anti-ICE protest movement, in addition to opposition against the war with Iran, is likely to further galvanise participation in the third iteration of the “No Kings” demonstrations.
On 28 March, protests will almost certainly be recorded across most large US urban centres. Most protest events will begin at around 12:00 to 13:00 local time, but disruptions are likely to begin in the late morning across most city centres. Previous “No Kings” protests have been characterised by a lack of violent clashes or direct action relative to their significant size, and primarily only resulted in localised traffic disruptions. While the planned and vertically organised nature of the protests reduces the likelihood of violence, localised cases of clashes between protesters and police, or protesters and counter-protesters, cannot be ruled out. The likelihood of such incidents increases in the late afternoon, after the main protest events have ended and crowds begin dispersing. Furthermore, there is a realistic possibility of isolated political violence, including “lone wolf” terrorism, targeting the protest events due to their anticipated large turnout. This follows from recent notable cases of attacks or attempted attacks, including the Islamic State-inspired botched grenade attack at a protest in New York City on 7 March.
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