Global Intelligence Summary

At approximately 13:10 local time on 22 February, the Mexican Secretariat of National Defence (SEDENA) conducted an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco State. The operation resulted in the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Several alleged CJNG members were also killed, and unverified reports claim that either one of Mencho’s sons or his brother-in-law was detained.

In response to the operation, members of the CJNG set multiple vehicles alight across the state of Jalisco and imposed numerous roadblocks, particularly in the heavily touristed town of Puerto Vallarta, Tapalpa, and the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area. Multiple businesses, including supermarkets, banks, and petrol stations, were also targeted in acts of arson. Cartel members in Guadalajara allegedly warned residents to remain indoors or risk being targeted. Multiple flights were cancelled and major international airlines suspended operations to the affected areas.

The unrest spread to other parts of Mexico, with security officials reporting that over 250 blockades occurred across 20 different states. Local authorities and foreign governments issued shelter-in-place warnings. The Governor of Jalisco urged people to stay in their homes until the situation is under control, and a red alert was issued for the state of Jalisco. Guadalajara.

As of 26 February, the US has lifted its shelter-in-place warnings, airlines have resumed normal operations at affected airports, including those in Jalisco, and most schools and businesses have reopened.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Since its establishment in 2009, CJNG has developed into the most powerful cartel in Mexico. As its leader, El Mencho became one of the most wanted individuals in both Mexico and the US, with US authorities offering a USD 15,000,000 reward for information leading to his capture. The operation leading to El Mencho’s death follows months of increased US intelligence cooperation with Mexico and pressure from the Trump administration for Mexico to do more to counter the cartels, which included several of the cartels being designated as Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTOs).

This has resulted in the formation of a new US military-led task force specialising in intelligence collection on drug cartels, known as the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel. This task force, which also includes multiple US government agencies, was involved in the operation and reportedly provided key targeting data to Mexican forces. The establishment of this task force and the resources dedicated to it almost certainly indicate that combating the cartels is a strategic priority of the Trump administration, and Washington’s intent is likely to expand coordination with Mexican security forces.

Past cases of arrests or killings of key cartel leaders have resulted in immediate waves of violence. In October 2019, the arrest of Ovidio “El Ratón” Guzmán López, son of Sinaloa boss “El Chapo”, resulted in the outbreak of severe violence in Culiacán, known locally as “Culiacanazo”. Faced with extreme levels of cartel violence, authorities took the controversial decision to release Guzmán.

Likely, the short-term wave of violence that followed El Mencho’s death was designed to serve as a warning to both Mexico City and Washington that similar operations targeting senior cartel leadership will be responded to with rapid, coordinated, and destabilising violence aimed at undermining the government and causing major economic disruption. However, the scale of the unrest and CJNG’s ability to coordinate operations in at least 20 states in Mexico was likely a shock to both the Mexican and US authorities.

Tourist resorts and key transport routes are integral to cartel operations, serving as critical revenue hubs and logistics corridors. Consequently, violence in these areas is likely to subside in response to security operations and the cartel’s priority of preserving revenue streams and maintaining freedom of movement. However, CJNG will highly likely continue to respond to the killing of its leader with targeted violence against the authorities and security forces across its areas of operations. The states that will likely be most affected by the violence include Jalisco, Nayarit, Michoacán, Baja California and Baja California Sur, Colima, Tamaulipas, and Sinaloa; the areas where the CJNG is most influential.

CJNG developed into the most powerful cartel in Mexico by combining rapid territorial expansion with the absorption and co-option of smaller criminal factions, some of which had splintered from larger rival cartels. El Mencho was instrumental in this process, who reportedly controlled nearly everything, provided strategic direction and enforced internal discipline. His death is likely to result in an immediate power vacuum within CJNG, increasing the risk of immediate factionalism and instability. As demonstrated by the fragmentation of the Sinaloa Cartel, this is likely to result in competing succession claims and intra-cartel fighting, which in the long term is likely to result in a significant increase in cartel violence in Mexico.