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Gulf States: Situation & Travel Update

Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 24 Apr 2026 – 28 Apr 2026

On 25 April, Iran’s foreign minister reportedly set forth demands from Tehran in Islamabad that the US naval ‘blockade’ of the Strait of Hormuz be lifted as a precondition for talks, giving a proposal to solve the Strait crisis first with a ceasefire extension, with nuclear negotiations delayed to a later stage.
US President Donald Trump subsequently announced that a planned trip to Islamabad by US negotiators had been cancelled due to Tehran’s unchanged negotiating position and a lack of commitment to meet, but that this does not mean a resumption of war.
Continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the current lack of further US-Iran talks to formally extend the ceasefire have increased the risk of a return to full-scale conflict. Such a conflict would highly likely result in renewed Iranian attacks against targets in the Gulf States.
The current status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is almost certainly untenable for both the US and Iran in the long term, and it is unlikely that either party will be willing to prolong the situation indefinitely.
On 24 April, Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence stated that two northern border posts were targeted by drones originating from Iraq, resulting in material damage but no casualties.
As of 28 April, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman’s airspaces are open.

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Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption

On 25 April, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with Pakistani leadership figures in Islamabad, Pakistan. Araghchi reportedly set forth demands from Tehran that the US naval ‘blockade’ of the Strait of Hormuz be lifted as a precondition for talks, proposing to solve the Strait crisis first with a ceasefire extension, and that nuclear negotiations would be delayed to a later stage.

US President Donald Trump subsequently announced that a planned trip to Islamabad by US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been cancelled due to Tehran’s unchanged negotiating position and a lack of commitment to meet, but that this does not mean a resumption of war.

As of 28 April, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman’s airspaces are open.

Saudi Arabia

No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 24 and 28 April.

At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.

As of 28 April, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.

Kuwait

On 24 April, Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence stated that two of Kuwait’s northern border posts were targeted by “two explosive-laden drones” which originated from Iraq. The Ministry of Defence states that the attack resulted in material damage but no casualties. No other attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 24 and 28 April.

At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.

As of 28 April, Kuwait’s airspace is open.

Bahrain

No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 24 and 28 April.

Bahrain’s Interior Ministry stated that 69 people have been stripped of citizenship after allegedly expressing “sympathy” for Iran’s “sinful hostile acts”. There is a realistic possibility that civil unrest may be triggered by the policy, with small-scale but violent unrest having also broken out in support of Iran in the earlier phases of the conflict.

At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.

As of 28 April, Bahrain’s airspace is open.

Qatar

No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 24 and 28 April.

At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.

As of 28 April, Qatar’s airspace is open.

UAE

No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 24 and 28 April.

At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.

As of 28 April, the UAE’s airspace is open.

Oman

No attacks have been reported in Oman between 24 and 28 April.

At least three people have been killed and 16 injured in Oman, as of 10:30 UTC on 27 April.

As of 28 April, Oman’s airspace is open.

Regional Advisory

Continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the current lack of further US-Iran talks to formally extend the ceasefire have increased the risk of a return to full-scale conflict. A return to conflict would highly likely result in renewed Iranian attacks against targets in the Gulf States. Such attacks would likely involve Iran broadening its targeting to include assets and infrastructure that enable the Gulf States to export oil and gas by circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, such as oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the Emirati city of Fujairah.

The current status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is almost certainly untenable for both the US and Iran in the long term, and it is unlikely that either party will be willing to prolong the situation indefinitely. Research estimates that Iran may only have enough storage capacity to last another 12 to 22 days for its domestic oil production, due to the US blockade limiting Iranian exports. However, it is also estimated that the impact on Iranian revenues will not be felt for another three to four months.

Despite the blockade, it is unlikely that Tehran can be compelled to make significant concessions that could be perceived as conceding to the US, in part due to the highly likely consolidation of power by IRGC hardliners over the regime. According to briefings by US officials to the media, some Trump administration officials believe that a continuation of the blockade for two more months could compel compliance from Tehran, while others believe this assessment to be flawed due to the hardening of Iran’s position.

Iran has repeatedly threatened that its forces are ready and prepared to resume attacks, with the military highly likely having exploited the ceasefire to improve its offensive and defensive positions. This has likely involved the excavation of ballistic missiles and ballistic missile launchers that were buried after the US-Israeli joint strikes and the restoration of damaged systems. Iranian military units have likely regrouped, dispersed remaining assets, and repositioned forces to enhance survivability against future strikes and to place Iran in a better position to conduct large-scale attacks against regional targets should active fighting resume.

Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:

Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.

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