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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 21 Apr 2026 – 24 Apr 2026
- Since 8 April, with the implementation of a two-week ceasefire, only isolated attempted attacks have continued at far lower rates, with unconfirmed points of origin.
- The ceasefire came under significant pressure and has been considered on the verge of collapse following continuing disputes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- On 21 April, potential US-Iran talks in Pakistan were put on hold after Iran refused to send a delegation to the negotiations. US President Donald Trump subsequently unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely, although US officials briefed on 22 April that the extension is expected to last only three to five days.
- The USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group (CSG) entered the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AoR) on 23 April, transiting past eastern Africa. Depending on transit speed, the Bush CSG is anticipated to be on station within two to four days.
- On 22 April, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media outlet Fars News Agency published a list of threatened targets in the Gulf States if their “geography and facilities are used” in attacks against Iran. These included specific oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.
- As of 24 April, Kuwaiti airspace has been opened following an announcement by the authorities. Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar’s airspaces are open, although carriers must adhere to strict procedures. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain fully open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Gulf States Navigate Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Disruption
On 21 April, US Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Islamabad, Pakistan, was put on hold after Iran refused to send a delegation to the negotiations. US President Donald Trump subsequently stated that he would unilaterally extend the temporary two-week ceasefire agreement that was reached between the US and Iran. No exact timeframe was originally provided for the extension, with the Trump administration framing it as “indefinite” while negotiations remain ongoing. However, US officials briefed on 22 April that the extension is expected to last only three to five days.
As of 24 April, it remains unclear whether further potential talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, between the US and Iran, which could formalise the ceasefire, will go ahead.
Iranian forces have continued attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has continued to enforce its “blockade” of the Strait against Iranian-linked vessels. The unilaterally extended ceasefire remains highly fragile due to continued disputes in the Strait of Hormuz. On 23 April, US President Donald Trump announced that he had “ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be… that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.”
As of 24 April, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group (CSG) is deployed in the Red Sea, and the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG remains in the Arabian Sea. The USS George H.W. Bush CSG entered the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AoR) on 23 April, transiting past eastern Africa. Depending on transit speed, the Bush CSG is anticipated to be on station within two to four days.
On 22 April, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media outlet Fars News Agency published a list of threatened targets in the Gulf States if their “geography and facilities are used” in attacks against Iran. These included specific oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.
As of 24 April, Kuwaiti airspace has been opened following an announcement by the authorities. Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar’s airspaces are open, although carriers must adhere to strict procedures. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain fully open.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 21 and 24 April.
On 22 April, IRGC-linked media reported that the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force warned that oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, including Ghawar and Abqaiq, may be targeted if the country’s territory is used to launch attacks towards Iran.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 08:30 UTC on 21 April.
As of 24 April, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
No attacks have been reported in Kuwait between 21 and 24 April. The Ministry of Interior announced the reinstatement of permission to hold social activities, including weddings, parties, and theatrical performances, from 24 April.
On 22 April, IRGC-linked media reported that the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force warned that oil facilities in Kuwait, including Burgan, Mina Abdullah, and Mina Al-Ahmadi, may be targeted if the country’s territory is used to launch attacks towards Iran.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 08:30 UTC on 21 April.
On 23 April, Director of the Public Authority of Civil Aviation of the State of Kuwait Sheikh Humoud Mubarak Humoud Al-Jaber Al-Sabah announced that the airspace would re-open, starting from the evening of 23 April.
Bahrain
No attacks have been reported in Bahrain between 21 and 24 April.
On 22 April, IRGC-linked media reported that the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force warned that oil facilities in Bahrain, including Abu Safa oil field and the Sitra Refinery, may be targeted if the country’s territory is used to launch attacks towards Iran.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 08:30 UTC on 21 April.
As of 24 April, Bahrain’s airspace is open. However, there is still a high rate of flight cancellations. Confirm your flight with your airline before going to the airport; services are limited and can change at short notice.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 21 and 24 April.
On 22 April, IRGC-linked media reported that the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force warned that oil facilities in Qatar, including Ras Laffan Complex, may be targeted if the country’s territory is used to launch attacks towards Iran.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 08:30 UTC on 21 April.
As of 24 April, while the airspace is unused by almost all commercial carriers, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate several international routes with special permission. The Qatar Civil Aviation Authority (QCAA) confirmed that international carriers are expected to resume flights to and from Doha Hamad International Airport (HIA/OTHH) in the near future.
UAE
No attacks have been reported in the UAE between 21 and 24 April.
On 22 April, IRGC-linked media reported that the commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force warned that oil facilities in the UAE, including Upper Zakum oil fields to Ruwais, and Habshan may be targeted if the country’s territory is used to launch attacks towards Iran.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 08:30 UTC on 21 April.
As of 24 April, the UAE’s airspace is open, although carriers must adhere to strict procedures.
Oman
No attacks have been reported in Oman between 21 and 24 April.
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 08:30 UTC on 21 April.
As of 24 April, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Continuing disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the current lack of further US-Iran talks to formally extend the ceasefire have increased the risk of an imminent return to full-scale conflict. Such a conflict would highly likely result in renewed Iranian attacks against targets in the Gulf States, and it is likely that such attacks would involve Iran broadening its target set, particularly against assets and infrastructure that enable the Gulf States to export oil and gas by circumventing the Strait of Hormuz, such as oil pipelines to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The current status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is almost certainly untenable for both the US and Iran, and it is unlikely that either party will be willing to prolong the situation indefinitely. However, it is also unlikely that Tehran can be compelled to make significant concessions that could be perceived as conceding to the US, with the current level of pressure applied against it. This is further complicated by the almost certain lack of a coherent negotiating partner for the US, with the Iranian regime likely fragmented between different factions, although hardline IRGC commanders likely currently wield the most control over the regime.
There is a realistic possibility that President Trump’s extension of the current ceasefire was intended to buy time for the arrival of the USS Bush CSG, an assessment which is supported by the Bush CSG’s estimated arrival time corresponding with the 3–5-day ceasefire extension period briefed by US officials.
Iran has repeatedly threatened that its forces are ready and prepared to resume attacks, with the military likely having exploited the ceasefire and cessation of attacks to improve its offensive and defensive positions. This has likely involved the excavation of ballistic missiles and ballistic missile launchers that were buried after the US-Israeli joint strikes and the restoration of damaged systems. Iranian military units have likely regrouped, dispersed remaining assets, and repositioned forces to enhance survivability against future strikes and to place Iran in a better position to conduct large-scale attacks against regional targets should active fighting resume.
Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity:
- Jordan has warned against publishing videos or information regarding Jordan’s defensive operations without authorisation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.”
- In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. Reports indicate that Dubai Police have used “electronic monitoring operations” were used to detect a photo shared within a private WhatsApp group
- In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”.
- Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”.
- Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.

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