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Gulf Security Remains Volatile Despite Ceasefire
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 08 Apr 2026 – 10 Apr 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran.
- Following the agreement of a 15-day ceasefire on 7 April, US and Iranian officials are scheduled to begin negotiations in Pakistan. Iranian forces have largely paused their attacks on Gulf states, although occasional reports of drone launches have been recorded on 8 and 9 April.
- As of 10 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is partially open, with operations gradually resuming. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: US, Iran Announce Two-Week Ceasefire
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure.
The two-week ceasefire agreed late 7 April remains in effect.
On 9 April, Iran’s military stated that it had not conducted any attacks since the beginning of the ceasefire, following multiple reports of attacks in multiple Gulf states on 8 April. The statement elaborated, stating that any attacks would be announced in official statements.
As of 10 April, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahraini airspace is partially open, with operations gradually resuming. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. In Qatar, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, but Qatar Airways flights continue to operate with special permission. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman’s airspaces remain open.
Saudi Arabia
No attacks have been reported in Saudi Arabia between 9 and 10 April.
At least three people have been killed and 29 injured in Saudi Arabia, as of 10:15 UTC on 10 April.
As of 10 April, Saudi Arabia’s airspace is open.
Kuwait
Overnight 9-10 April, air defences were reportedly activated in response to attack drones over Kuwait, according to Kuwaiti authorities. The National Guard facility was reportedly struck, resulting in “significant damage” but no reports of injuries.
At least seven people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 10:15 UTC on 10 April.
As of 10 April, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
On the evening of 9 April, Bahraini authorities stated that they had intercepted seven Iranian drones over the past 24 hours. Iran has denied having carried out attacks following the approval of the ceasefire. No attacks have been reported in Bahrain on 10 April.
At least three people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 10:15 UTC on 10 April.
Late on 8 April, the Bahrain Airport Company (BAC) stated that it would gradually resume flights, following the authorities’ announcement that the airspace would be partially reopened. An EU-wide safety advisory for the region remains in force. Confirm your flight with your airline before going to the airport; services are limited and can change at short notice.
Qatar
No attacks have been reported in Qatar between 9 and 10 April.
At least 20 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 10:15 UTC on 10 April.
As of 10 April, while the airspace is closed to almost all commercial flights, Qatar Airways flights continue to operate several international routes with special permission.
UAE
Late 8 April, UAE authorities stated that they are seeking clarifications regarding the ceasefire and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, following post-ceasefire interceptions earlier in the day. On 9 April, the UAE’s Defence Ministry stated that no threat had been detected over the country’s airspace since that morning.
At least 12 people have been killed and 224 injured in the UAE, as of 10:15 UTC on 10 April.
As of 8 April, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
At least three people have been killed and 15 injured in Oman, as of 10:15 UTC on 10 April.
As of 10 April, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Truce-related talks between US and Iranian delegates are scheduled to begin in Pakistan on 11 April, following Islamabad’s successful mediating role in the ceasefire process. It is highly likely that Iranian forces will continue to refrain from launching strikes against neighbouring countries in the immediate term. However, incidents in Kuwait and Bahrain likely demonstrate how some Iranian units may still carry out attacks independently. However, these are unlikely to threaten the ceasefire’s stability.
The ceasefire almost certainly remains highly unstable, and the issue of the continuation of the war in Lebanon remains the main threat to its continuation. Tehran has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the deal if Israeli attacks continue, while Israeli officials have reiterated their position that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. Israeli authorities have agreed to hold talks with their Lebanese counterparts next week.
The cessation of Iranian strikes across the Gulf will highly likely enable the gradual reopening of local airspaces, and will likely be leveraged by Gulf state governments to increase the number of evacuation and repatriation flights. Increased activity by regional civilian airlines is likely in the short term.
Travellers are strongly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage, or military activity. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior has stated that “[p]hotographing or publishing or circulating information related to countering missiles and drones and the locations of their falls exposes you to legal accountability.” In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal. In Bahrain, several people have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability and has arrested hundreds of people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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