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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 13 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 14 March.
- The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region.
- On 14 March, Iranian media linked to the IRGC has advised residents of the UAE to evacuate ports, labelling them “legitimate targets”, following US strikes in Kharg Island. In a follow-up statement, the same media outlet warned residents to “immediately move away” from Jebel Ali, Khalifa, and Fujairah port areas due to likely impending attacks.
- Overnight 13-14 March, Iranian officials claimed to have struck two Citibank locations in Manama and Dubai with attack drones.
- Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure, and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 14 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 14 March.
On 11 March, a spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters (KACHQ, the unified command HQ of the Iranian Armed Forces) declared that US and/or Israel-linked “economic centres and banks” will now be targeted, warning that “people of the region should not be within a one-kilometre radius of banks”. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media released a list of offices and infrastructure linked to the US and Israel, which included companies such as Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle.
On 12 March, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media stated that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
On the night of 13-14 March, US forces carried out large-scale airstrikes on military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island. On 14 March, IRGC-affiliated channels issued a threat to the UAE stating that it would target US “hideouts” in its territory, and warned UAE residents to stay away from ports, docks and US military installations. Moreover, IRGC-affiliated channels reiterated previous threats to strike private companies and civilian assets associated with the US.
As of 14 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait. Bahrain is enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. Qatar has suspended flights and closed its airspace to most commercial traffic, with only heavily limited repatriation flights permitted. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
On 14 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that air defences had intercepted at least 15 drones and one ballistic missile overnight 13-14 March. Officials specified that some interceptions occurred near Al-Jowf and the Empty Quarter. The volume of Iranian strikes targeting Saudi Arabia has almost certainly increased since 12 March. On 13 March, international media reported that five US planes were damaged by Iranian strikes at Prince Sultan Airbase in Al-Kharj. The reports did not specify the day when the incident occurred and added that the attack caused no casualties.
On 12 March, IRGC-linked media asserted that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
At least two people have been killed and 12 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 14 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports.
Kuwait
Overnight 13-14 March, Kuwait’s military stated that they intercepted and destroyed an attack drone in an unspecified location. On 13 March, the Ministry of Defence stated that only one ballistic missile was detected over the previous 24 hours outside of the threat area, causing no damage. The Kuwait Ministry of Interior stated it had detected several individuals using drones for aerial photography in violation of previously announced regulations and that legal measures would be taken against them.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 14 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
On 14 March, the General Command of the Bahrain Defence Force stated that air defences had intercepted and destroyed 124 ballistic missiles and 203 drones targeting the Kingdom of Bahrain since the onset of the hostilities. The General Command also stated that the use of ballistic missiles and drones to target civilian areas and private property constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law and the United Nations Charter. The same day, Iranian media reported having damaged US “targets” in Bahrain in overnight strikes, including Isa Air Base. Iranian officials claimed to have struck a Citibank location in Manama with attack drones overnight, 13-14 March.
Overnight 13-14 March, anti-government groups staged a demonstration in Manama, Sitra, Abu Saiba, Musalla, Samahij, and other locations for “al Quds day”. No notable disruptions or damage to US assets have been reported in connection with the protests.
At least two people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 14 March, the Bahraini airspace is heavily restricted, having previously been closed. On 13 March, Bahrain amended its airspace closure, enabling some departures from Bahrain International Airport (BAH / OBBI) following a specific route, with prior permission.
Qatar
Overnight 13-14 March, the Qatari military twice intercepted ballistic missile attacks, shortly after public safety alerts were issued. Some of the interceptions were reported over Doha. Qatari authorities reportedly evacuated the Msheireb and Education City area of Doha late 13 March, shortly before the missile interceptions.
On 13 March, the Ministry of Interior released a statement maintaining the nationwide remote-work directive until further notice. The statement also declared that Qatar has food and water reserves to cover its needs for 18 months and four months, respectively, in addition to medicine stockpiles to last nine months, and medical supplies sufficient for 12 months. The statement added that Qatari authorities continued to monitor air and water pollution levels following a strike on a fuel depot in its industrial zone.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 14 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. On 6 March, the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announced flights would operate through “designated navigational contingency routes with limited operational capacity” in coordination with the Qatari armed forces. Qatar Airways stated that it will operate heavily limited repatriation flights from Doha Airport (DOH).
UAE
On 14 March, the Defence Ministry stated that, so far, nine missiles and 33 attack drones had targeted the UAE on 14 March. Overnight 13-14 March, debris from an intercepted attack drone struck a building in downtown Dubai, but caused no injuries or fire. Iranian officials also claimed to have struck a Citibank location in Dubai. On 14 March, it was reported that some oil loading operations at the Port of Fujairah have been suspended following an attack drone strike. A fire was also reported in Fujairah after intercepted attack drone fragments fell at an unspecified location; no injuries were reported.
Iranian media linked to the IRGC has advised residents of the UAE to evacuate ports, labelling them “legitimate targets”, following US strikes in Kharg Island. In a follow-up statement, the same media outlet warned residents to “immediately move away” from Jebel Ali, Khalifa, and Fujairah port areas due to likely impending attacks.
At least 20 people, including a British tourist, have been charged under cybercrime laws for allegedly filming Iranian strikes over Dubai, according to the UK Foreign Office. On 14 March, Abu Dhabi police stated that they had arrested 45 people of various nationalities for filming and posting on social media.
At least six people have been killed and 131 injured in the UAE, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 13 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
At least three people have been killed and five injured in Oman, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
As of 14 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities.
The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked companies issued by the KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March. Previously, on 1 March, Iranian attack drones caused damage to three Amazon Web Services (AWS) facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. Overnight 13-14 March, Iranian officials claimed to have struck two Citibank locations in Manama and Dubai with attack drones.
While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates that the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended ballistic missile stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US-Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Despite diminishing stockpiles of projectiles, Iranian forces almost certainly remain available to launch high-volume strikes against Gulf States. Since 12 March, Iranian forces have intensified the volume of drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi Arabia.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems. Russian intelligence sharing with Iran will likely enable Iran to better identify vulnerabilities in regional air defence networks and refine targeting for future strikes.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 45 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. The sharp increase in the number of arrests indicates a likely crackdown on social media activity.
In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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