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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 12 Mar 2026 – 13 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 13 March.
- The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked banks and economic centres issued by the Iranian KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March.
- On 12 March, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media stated that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
- On 13 March, Dubai officials reported minor damage to a building in the Dubai International Financial Centre caused by debris from a successful interception.
- On 13 March, the Omani authorities reported the downing of two drones in the Suhar Governorate. One of the drones fell in the Al-Awahi Industrial Area, resulting in the death of two expatriates and several injuries.
- Iran continues strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, desalination plants, international hotels, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- As of 13 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 13 March.
On 11 March, a spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters (KACHQ, the unified command HQ of the Iranian Armed Forces) declared that US and/or Israel-linked “economic centres and banks” will now be targeted, warning that “people of the region should not be within a one-kilometre radius of banks”. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media released a list of offices and infrastructure linked to the US and Israel, which included companies such as Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle.
On 12 March, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked media stated that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
As of 13 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait and Bahrain. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. Qatar has suspended flights and closed its airspace to most commercial traffic, with only heavily limited repatriation flights permitted. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
On 13 March, Saudi Arabian defence officials stated that a drone approaching the international diplomatic area in the west of Riyadh was shot down by air defences. Additional drones were intercepted in Al-Kharj and the Eastern Provinces. Saudi Arabian defence officials reported that at least 50 Iranian drones were shot down over the country overnight on 12-13 March during multiple waves of attacks.
On 12 March, IRGC-linked media asserted that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum.
At least two people have been killed and 12 injured in Saudi Arabia as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 13 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports.
Kuwait
Reporting from 12 March indicates that foreign nationals have found it difficult to leave the country due to a Kuwaiti law requiring foreign nationals to obtain exit permits from their employers. Many teachers have reportedly been denied permission to leave. The Kuwaiti immigration authority is reportedly urging employers to supply exit permits. Reports also emerged on 12 March that the Canadian section at Ali Al-Salem Air Base, which has repeatedly been targeted by Iranian strikes, was damaged by a ballistic missile strike on 1 March.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 13 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
On 12-13 March, air raid sirens were activated multiple times in Bahrain. On 13 March, IRGC-channels stated that they had targeted US bases in Manama. On 12 March, the General Command of the Bahrain Defence Force stated that air defences had intercepted and destroyed 114 ballistic missiles and 190 drones targeting the Kingdom of Bahrain since the onset of the hostilities. The General Command also stated that the use of ballistic missiles and drones to target civilian areas and private property constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law and the United Nations Charter.
At least two people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Bahrain, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 13 March, the airspace remains closed in Bahrain.
Qatar
The Defence Ministry announced that Qatar was targeted by two ballistic missiles, one cruise missile, and several attack drones by Iran on 12 March. All were successfully intercepted.
On 12 March, IRGC-linked media asserted that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum. Also on 12 March, French oil company TotalEnergies stated that it would suspend oil production in Qatar in response to the heightened threat environment.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 13 March, the airspace remains heavily restricted in Qatar. On 6 March, the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announced flights would operate through “designated navigational contingency routes with limited operational capacity” in coordination with the Qatari armed forces. Qatar Airways stated that it will operate heavily limited repatriation flights from Doha Airport (DOH).
On 13 March, Hamad International Airport (HIA) warned passengers about fraudulent accounts impersonating the airport and stressed that it will never request passport details via phone, email, SMS, or social media, urging travellers to rely only on official communication channels.
UAE
On 13 March, Dubai officials reported minor damage to a building in the Dubai International Financial Centre caused by debris from a successful interception. The incident follows a warning issued on 11 March from IRGC media channels that it will deliberately target financial institutions in the Middle East. According to the UAE’s Defence Ministry, its air defence intercepted seven ballistic missiles and 27 drones since early 13 January.
On 12 March, IRGC-linked media asserted that potential targets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar include assets jointly owned by host governments and US companies, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Occidental Petroleum. On 12 March, French oil company TotalEnergies stated that it would suspend oil production in the UAE in response to the heightened threat environment.
At least six people have been killed and 131 injured in the UAE, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
As of 13 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones.
Oman
On 13 March, the Omani authorities reported the downing of two drones in the Suhar Governorate. One of the drones fell in the Al-Awahi Industrial Area, resulting in the death of two expatriates and several injuries. The second drone fell in an open area and did not result in any casualties.
At least three people have been killed and five injured in Oman, as of 11:45 UTC on 13 March.
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
As of 13 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has continued strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities.
The threat of attacks against US and Israeli-linked companies issued by the KACHQ on 11 March is highly likely to increase the risk profile of offices, facilities, and other assets associated with major US and Israeli-linked companies across the region. The threat reportedly triggered major firms, including Citi, Deloitte, PwC and Standard Chartered, to evacuate or shut their Dubai, UAE, offices on 11 March. Previously, on 1 March, Iranian attack drones caused damage to three Amazon Web Services (AWS) facilities in the UAE and Bahrain.
While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates that the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has significantly diminished since 28 February, almost certainly due to expended ballistic missile stockpiles and the destruction of transporter erector launchers (TELs) by US-Israeli strikes. However, attack drone use has remained high, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term.
Sustained Iranian attack drone and missile strikes are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems. Russian intelligence sharing with Iran will likely enable Iran to better identify vulnerabilities in regional air defence networks and refine targeting for future strikes.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, with at least 21 people being arrested so far, including a British tourist who allegedly filmed missile strikes in Dubai. In Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and has arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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