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Sustained Iranian Attacks Reshape Gulf Security
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | INTELLIGENCE WINDOW: 09 Mar 2026 – 10 Mar 2026
- Since 28 February, Iran has conducted missile and attack drone strikes against targets in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The attacks have continued into 10 March.
- As of 10 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar has permitted limited repatriation flights. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones; Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman and Jordan’s airspaces remain open.
- Iran has escalated strikes against civilian targets, economic assets and critical national infrastructure. Attacks have resulted in material damage at airports, ports, government offices, oil and gas infrastructure and locations hosting US military personnel.
- The rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has decreased since 28 February. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term. Heavy air defence interceptor usage is likely reducing stockpiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, potentially forcing air defences to prioritise targets and increasing the likelihood of successful penetrations.
- Overnight 9-10 March, one person was killed, and eight were injured in an Iranian attack drone strike on a residential building in Manama, Bahrain.
- The frequency of Iranian attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia is highly likely increasing, in comparison to the earlier phases of the conflict when Saudi Arabia was targeted significantly less than other countries in the Arabian Peninsula.
- A drone strike on 10 March at the UAE’s state-run ADNOC’s Ruwais refinery resulted in a fire, leading to the closure of the facility. Iranian strikes against oil and gas infrastructure have likely escalated in retaliation for Israeli strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure.
Middle East Conflict: Latest Intelligence & Travel Advice
To support planning, we are updating our Middle East travel advice daily with guidance from our intelligence team on airspace openings and closures, flight operations, and escalating risks impacting movement.
Situation Update: Iran Continues Missile and Drone Attacks Across the Gulf
On 28 February, Iran initiated ballistic missile and attack drone strikes targeting Israel and US military facilities and sites known to host US military personnel across the Middle East, in response to joint US and Israeli airstrikes inside Iran. The targeting pattern of Iranian strikes has evolved to increasingly include civilian-profile targets such as hotels, international airports, and critical national infrastructure. Iranian strikes have continued into 10 March.
As of 10 March, there is a total closure of airspace in Kuwait and Bahrain. The UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. Qatar has suspended flights and closed its airspace to most commercial traffic, with only limited repatriation flights permitted. Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Oman’s airspace remains open, with Muscat becoming the preferred airport among airlines in the region wishing to perform relief flights. Jordan’s airspace remains open, but aircraft are advised to carry extra fuel in case of delays.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry stated that it intercepted a ballistic missile headed for the Eastern Province late 9 March and destroyed multiple attack drones near Al Kharj and the Shaybah oil field. On 10 March, authorities said another attack drone was destroyed east of Al Kharj; two more were intercepted in the Eastern Province, and nine attack drones heading toward Shaybah were intercepted over Eastern Province. Saudi authorities also said a drone fell in a residential area in Al-Zulfi governorate on 10 March, causing some damage but with no injuries confirmed as of yet. The frequency of Iranian attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia is highly likely increasing, in comparison to the earlier phases of the conflict when Saudi Arabia was targeted significantly less than other countries in the Arabian Peninsula.
There have been at least two deaths and 12 injuries from Iranian strikes in Saudi Arabia as of 09:00 UTC on 9 March 2026.
As of 10 March, Saudi Arabia’s airspace has a partial closure affecting the area bordering Iraq and the Persian Gulf; however, this does not affect commercial flights departing major Saudi airports. Air France on 9 March extended its suspension of flights to and from Riyadh through 13 March.
Kuwait
On 10 March, Kuwait’s air defence systems intercepted incoming ballistic missiles and attack drones. Air raid sirens also sounded overnight 9-10 March, with air defences intercepting two ballistic missiles and six attack drones, which were reportedly aimed at the country’s northern and southern areas. Air defences had previously intercepted 14 ballistic missiles and four attack drones earlier on 9 March. Additionally, on 9 March, Jordan’s Prime Minister Jafar Hassan and Kuwait’s Prime Minister Ahmad Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah held a phone call, during which they reportedly exchanged views on the regional conflict, reiterated a firm rejection of the Iranian attacks, and stressed that stronger diplomatic engagement is needed to calm tensions.
At least six people have been killed, and dozens have been injured in Kuwait, as of 09:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 10 March, the airspace remains closed in Kuwait.
Bahrain
Early 10 March, explosions were heard over Bahrain as air raid sirens sounded. According to the Ministry of Interior, the fire that broke out at the Bapco oil refinery in Al-Mu’amirah, south of Manama has been brought under control, with limited material damage and no loss of life. Overnight 9-10 March, one person was killed and eight injured in an Iranian attack drone strike on a residential building in Manama. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that a fire was burning at Bahrain’s Isa Air Base which hosts US troops, following the overnight attacks.
At least one person has been killed, and 40 have been injured in Bahrain, as of 09:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 10 March, the airspace remains closed in Bahrain.
Qatar
On 10 March, multiple explosions were heard in Qatar, with the Ministry of Defence announcing that Qatar had been subjected to a “missile attack”. Qatar’s Interior Ministry issued an emergency alert calling on citizens to stay indoors and away from windows due to the high security threat level.
At least 16 people have been injured in Qatar, as of 09:00 UTC on 9 March.
As of 10 March, the airspace remains restricted in Qatar. On 6 March, the Qatar Civil Aviation Authority announced flights would operate through “designated navigational contingency routes with limited operational capacity” in coordination with the Qatari armed forces. Qatar Airways stated that they will operate limited flights from Doha Airport (DOH), with services to 15 destinations confirmed for 11 March. Aircraft depart with their transponders switched off as a safety precaution and may not appear on flight tracking platforms.
UAE
Emirati authorities stated that its air defences responded to a missile threat on 10 March, with the Defence Ministry saying sounds heard across the UAE were caused by the interception of missiles and drones. Civil aviation authorities have announced a complete ban on all drones and light sports aircraft, including suspended permits for drones, gliders, paragliders and sports aircraft. A drone strike on 10 March at the UAE’s state-run ADNOC’s Ruwais refinery resulted in a fire, leading to the closure of the facility. Iranian strikes against oil and gas infrastructure have likely escalated in retaliation for Israeli strikes against Iranian oil infrastructure.
At least six people have been killed and 122 injured as of 12:00 UTC on 10 March.
As of 10 March, the UAE’s airspace has restricted access by way of Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT) zones. On 9 March, the airline Air France extended the suspension of flights running from Dubai until 13 March to the ongoing security situation.
Oman
Oman played a crucial role as a mediator in the negotiations between the US and Iran prior to the current conflict. Almost certainly reflective of this mediating role, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi stated on 9 March that “[b]oth regional and US interests will truly be served by a ceasefire now and a return to diplomacy as soon as possible”. Moreover, Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq congratulated Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on his appointment on 9 March.
At least one person has been killed and five injured in Oman, as of 09:00 UTC on 9 March.
Oman is currently assessed to have a lower conflict-related risk profile compared to the neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Omani airspace remains open. As a result, Oman is being used by airlines and international governments as a base for repatriation flights. There is considerably elevated demand for flights running from Oman.
As of 10 March, the airspace remains open in Oman.
Regional Advisory
Further Iranian strikes remain highly likely in the near term. While US military installations likely remain the highest priority target, Iranian strikes will also likely continue targeting civilian-profile sites. Iran has further escalated strikes against civilian-profile targets and economic interests, airports, including oil and gas infrastructure and desalination facilities. Recent US and Israeli strikes targeting oil facilities in Iran are likely to result in Iranian retaliatory attacks targeting energy infrastructure and other economically significant targets across the Gulf.
The Gulf States are highly dependent on desalination for drinking water, domestic use, and industrial purposes. In Kuwait, 90 per cent of drinking water is obtained from desalination plants, compared with 86 per cent in Oman, 70 per cent in Saudi Arabia, and 42 per cent in the UAE. Sustained attacks on desalination facilities are likely to have significant impacts on national water security.
While interception rates overall remain high, there have been numerous recorded cases of projectiles penetrating air defences. There is also a high risk of secondary impacts, including debris from intercepted threats, further extended airspace closures, maritime traffic interference, and wider transport and commercial disruption across the region.
Reporting indicates the volume of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at the Gulf states has diminished since 28 February. It is almost certain that the US-Israeli strike campaign, combined with heavy ballistic missile usage, has diminished Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles. However, attack drone use has remained consistent, with the threat of attack drone strikes likely to remain high in the short-to-medium term.
Sustained Iranian drone attacks are likely to result in critical shortages of air defence interceptors across the region, especially in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. Critical shortages in air defence interceptors will likely force air defence systems to prioritise targets and increase the likelihood of successful penetrations. Furthermore, Iranian strikes have damaged regional air defence infrastructure, including radar systems critical for early warning, target acquisition, and tracking, likely degrading detection capabilities and reducing reaction times for air defence systems. Russian intelligence sharing with Iran will likely enable Iran to better identify vulnerabilities in regional air defence networks and refine targeting of future strikes.
It is highly advised not to film or distribute footage of strikes, damage or military activity. In the UAE, authorities have warned that publishing or circulating “rumours, false news, or news from unknown sources through social media platforms or other information technology” is illegal, and in Bahrain, at least two individuals have been confirmed as arrested for “filming, live streaming, clipping, and publishing events in a manner constituting a legal violation”. Qatar’s Ministry of Interior warned that gathering at incident sites or photographing and sharing content related to field developments may result in legal accountability, and have arrested at least 313 people of various nationalities for “producing and sharing misleading information”. Omani authorities have stated: “Beware of sharing or publishing any captured photos or videos. They should be shared only with the competent authorities”.
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