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Thailand-Cambodia Border Clashes

Clashes Intensify on Thailand-Cambodia Border Amid Rising Military Activity

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 24 JULY 2025

The ongoing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has intensified after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine in the disputed area along shared border with Cambodia in Ubon Ratchathani province on 23 July. According to Thai authorities, the mines were newly laid along paths that were supposed to be safe by mutual agreement. The incident prompted Thailand to expel the Cambodian ambassador and close all border crossings with Cambodia, to which Cambodia responded by downgrading diplomatic ties and evacuating its embassy in Bangkok.

In the most significant escalation, on the morning of 24 July, a confrontation involving six Cambodian soldiers and an alleged drone, and several Thai soldiers has triggered direct strikes between the two territories. Thailand and Cambodia have accused each other of provoking the incident.

In response to the clashes, Thailand launched airstrikes at two Cambodian military targets and deployed F-16 fighter jets, which Cambodian media claimed to have downed, something that was refuted by the Thai Air Force as “fake news”. One F-16 fired into Cambodia, destroying a military target, according to a statement by the Thai military. According to Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet, Thailand attacked Cambodian military positions at Prasat Ta Moan Thom and Prasat Ta Krabey in Oddar Meanchey province, and Cambodia’s defence ministry has accused Thailand of targeting a road.

Cambodia has responded with artillery fire into a civilian area in Thailand’s Surin province, according to Thai defence ministry spokesperson. The Thai military has reported at least 12 civilian fatalities, according to latest figures. Artillery fire from Cambodian forces has reportedly caused damage in the Kantharalak district of Si Sa Ket, Thailand, setting a 7-Eleven store ablaze and striking the Phanom Dong Rak Hospital in Surin province. Thai officials have accused Cambodian forces of targeting civilian areas. Cambodia has claimed to have taken control of disputed temples along the border, with reports of Thai soldiers being killed or injured.

The situation has prompted diplomatic responses, with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet seeking intervention from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Despite the conflict, Cambodian authorities report that flights between the two countries are operating normally. Approximately 40,000 citizens have been evacuated from 86 villages in Thailand and evacuations are underway in Preah Vihear, Cambodia. The Thai embassy has urged its citizens to leave Cambodia.

Thailand has also closed its southernmost border checkpoint with Cambodia at Hat Lek in Trat, as clashes continue further north. Both countries have urged civilians not to share photos or videos of the ongoing conflict, indicating a desire to control the narrative and manage the situation domestically.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Coup Risk in Thailand Grows as Thai Leadership Faces Internal Pressure

After an armed confrontation in the disputed border region of Preah Vihear on 28 May, which resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier, tensions have escalated between the two countries. In the following weeks, border crossing restrictions have been imposed, trade of produce, fuel, and media has been stopped, resulting in protests, economic disruption, and a political crisis in Thailand resulting in the suspension of Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The dispute originates from a 1904 colonial-era agreement between France and Siam using the watershed principle to define the border, but a later French map placed the Preah Vihear Temple in Cambodia. The ICJ ultimately ruled in Cambodia’s favour. Tensions over the disputed region have occasionally escalated, most notably in 2008 following armed skirmishes between Cambodian and Thai troops.

In 2011, both sides engaged in a week-long exchange of artillery, mortars, and rocket fire, triggering at least 15 deaths and 85,000 displacements. The clashes prompted the diplomatic intervention of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and led to both sides agreeing to de-escalate with Indonesian observers monitoring the border. Following the clashes, Bangkok and Phnom Penh agreed to settle future disputes with a Joint Boundary Commission; a means which failed to resolve the current dispute on 15 June.

Given the instability in Thailand, there is an elevated risk of a coup, with the Thai military highly likely exploiting the border crisis with Cambodia to win public favour. Thailand has a history of coups, with 22 coup attempts, 13 of which were successful, since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. The most recent two coups ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra‘s family members, Thaksin in 2006 and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. The normalisation of coups in Thailand has likely created a ‘coup culture’, whereby often military-led takeovers are viewed by many as an acceptable way to solve a political crisis. The likelihood of coups typically increases during times of mass protest or armed conflict, with the military justifying a coup by claiming they are “restoring order”.

Thailand has a significant military advantage over Cambodia, outmatching Cambodia in airpower, firepower, and mobility. Cambodia has historically relied on symbolic and diplomatic efforts during disputes with Thailand. On 14 July, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet declared that mandatory military conscription would be implemented in 2026 in an attempt to bolster its military capabilities.

Continued clashes are highly likely as both sides conduct retaliatory strikes. The accusations of the deliberate targeting of civilian areas from Thailand significantly escalates the risk of miscalculation from both sides. While ASEAN has, so far, been diplomatically impotent regarding the escalations, given the lack of formal mechanisms for conflict dispute and consensus-based decision-making, diplomatic intervention to de-escalate between the two sides is likely.

Travel Risk Advice for Thailand and Cambodia

Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stranded in Thailand or Cambodia.
Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
Ensure you have robust evacuation, communication, and contingency plans in place.
Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes and civil unrest.
Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts. Unverified claims and disinformation will almost certainly be widely propagated on social media and unvetted sources.