Terror Attack in Lahore and Potential Security Risks

• At least 26 people have been confirmed dead and dozens injured after an explosion in central Lahore.
• Police have confirmed it was a suicide blast and that they were specifically targeted.
• The attack occurred close to the residence and office of Punjab province’s Chief Minister.
• Tehrik-i-Taliban, Pakistan’s Taliban, have claimed responsibility for the attack.

Terrorism: A suicide bomber has killed at least 26 people in Pakistan’s second most populous city, Lahore. Dozens have also been wounded after the explosion seemingly targeted police in the Punjab capital. These numbers are expected to rise.

Of those killed, at least nine were police officers. Local sources have suggested that the suicide bomber specifically targeted a group of officers who were clearing street vendors near Arfa Software Technology Park on Ferozepur Road. The Pakistan Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack, which occurred as the bomber rammed his motorcycle into the police. Local authorities have suggested that as much as six kilograms of explosives were used by the perpetrator.

This attack represents the continued high threat of terrorism across all of Pakistan and not only in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Indeed, this is the third significant terror attack in Lahore this year. In April, six people were killed when a suicide attack targeted a vehicle carrying census workers. In February 2017, 13 people were killed when a suicide bomber attacked police posted at a demonstration in central Lahore. Militants have been known to mount attacks in the lead-up to, and on, occasions of significance. This includes Pakistan National Day (23 March), the storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad by government troops (which occurred in July 2007), and Independence Day (14 August).

This attack shows the resourcefulness of terrorists in Pakistan and across the world. Indeed, in the last year, the world has seen car rammings and bombings, knife attacks, shootings, and motorcycle bombings. A more concerning facet of this attack though is its location. This attack occurred in a relatively secure and affluent area of Lahore, close to Arfa Karim IT Tower and the offices of the provincial Chief Minister. This demonstrates the unpredictability of terror attacks in Pakistan.

The Pakistan Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack. The group are most active in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan in the west of the country. Unlike other terror groups, such as Islamic State or Al Qaeda, the Pakistan Taliban generally attack domestic targets, rather than adventuring abroad. Pakistan’s Islamic State (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant – Khorasan Province or ISIS-KP) and Tehrik-i-Taliban (Pakistan’s Taliban or TTP) are opposed to each other. Indeed, ISIS-KP was formed by a split in the Taliban.  Tehrik-i-Taliban and ISIS-KP are not the only terror groups active in Pakistan, and terrorism is not the only factor ensuring that Pakistan continues to have a challenging security environment. Other factors include violent crime which comes in the form of carjacking, kidnapping, and armed robbery. There has recently been a number of reports of individuals impersonating police officers with fake police identification cards. Non-violent crimes and crimes of opportunity, such as pickpocketing, are rife in Pakistan. Of particular concern if the practice of celebratory gunfire around major holidays and sporting events. On 01 January 2017, 20 people were injured after celebratory gunfire in Karachi.

Map: TTP (only) Terror Attacks in Pakistan between 2000-2016, coloured by attack type and sized by number of fatalities. Data Source: Global Terrorism Database