Russian Hybrid Operations in Europe

25 July 2024

In mid-July, two reports have emerged that indicate the extent and recent intensification of Russian covert operations across Europe. The first report, from an undisclosed U.S defence source, reported that U.S. military bases have been elevated to high alert due to credible threats of sabotage from pro-Russian actors targeting American facilities.

The second report that emerged in July may indicate a major escalation in Russian tactics. US intelligence revealed that it discovered a significant plot to assassinate a major German arms manufacturer executive, vital for Ukraine’s defense, suggesting a broader strategy of intimidation against defence industry executives providing support for Ukraine’s military campiagn against Russia.

The planned attacks mirrored a series of recent successful or disrupted attacks on the continent where Russian intelligence services (RIS) have traditionally been afforded good access, including Germany, the Baltics, Poland, and other Eastern European countries that used to fall under Moscow’s sphere of influence.

These incidents likely form part of a wider strategy of sabotage attacks, cyber-attacks, information operations, and cases of espionage against countries, companies, people, and infrastructure supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia – attacks that have, to date, not resulted in any loss of life in Western Europe.

The concept of “hybrid warfare” is subject to ongoing academic debate. Some argue that hybrid warfare represents a new paradigm in conflict, characterised by the simultaneous use of conventional and unconventional tactics. Others view it as an evolution of long-standing strategies that fuse military, economic, informational, and cyber operations to achieve strategic objectives.

Russian hybrid activity in Europe could include leveraging all available avenues of attack to undermine, disrupt, destabilise, deter, and divide the West without provoking a major escalation. Russian actions, like sabotage and cyber-attacks, will be highly deniable and designed not to cross a threshold that warrants a direct military response from NATO under Article 5.

Under President Vladimir Putin, Russian intelligence agencies have been revitalised and heavily integrated into the country’s “hybrid” warfare or “grey zone” doctrine. These agencies have been modernised, received enhanced training, advanced technology, and given expanded mandates to operate aggressively both domestically and internationally. This revitalisation aims to blend conventional espionage with cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and other unconventional tactics to help achieve a more comprehensive approach to hybrid warfare.

The war has disrupted Russian intelligence operations in Europe, due to the widespread expulsion of Russian intelligence officers posing as diplomats and the exposure of many covert operatives. forcing a reconstitution of its operations and tactics. Recent trends indicate that Russia is reconsituting is foreign intelligence apparetus in Europe and has incorporated a range of new tactics.

The Kremlin would likely aim to distance them from any sensitive operations that could lead to significant consequences. It is probable that virtually recruited and untrained individuals, who have had no direct contact with RIS, will be used for low-sophistication sabotage attacks, such as arson or tampering with physical infrastructure.

Russian sabotage efforts are likely to focus on less secure infrastructure and public facilities, aiming to create disruption while avoiding high-security sites like military bases.

Concerns are growing that Russian sabotage tactics might extend to the U.S., driven by internal divisions and potential exploitation of illegal immigration. This possibility is heightened by recent incidents and geopolitical developments.

Russia may increase its hybrid warfare tactics, such as cyber-attacks and information operations, to exploit Western divisions and undermine support for Ukraine. Future actions could target major events and infrastructure to create broader disruption.

Download the Full Report to explore in-depth analysis, detailed case studies, and the strategic implications of Russia’s hybrid operations in Europe and beyond.

  • Indications of Russian escalation within Europe
  • Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy
  • Russian intelligence within the framework of hybrid warfare
  • The war in Ukraine and the reconstitution of Russian intelligence
  • A shift in Russian recruitment?
  • Potential targets and impacts of increased Russian sabotage
  • An emerging threat to the US?
  • Potential avenues for further escalation
Russian Hybrid Operations in Europe report mock up

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