Rugby World Cup September 2023

Between 8 September and 28 October 2023, the Rugby World Cup (RWC) will take place in nine stadiums across France. It is the first time the competition has been held exclusively in the nation, and across the seven weeks more than 600,000 international visitors are expected to attend the event. The tournament will open with the hosts taking on New Zealand at the Stade de France, Paris, where the final will also take place.  

The tournament will feature 20 of the top 22 ranked countries and includes nations from five continents. South Africa are the defending champions having won the 2019 World Cup Final against England, whilst Chile will be the only team making their debut on this occasion. ­

Protests and strikes are a regular occurrence in France, and large-scale demonstrations have been routine throughout 2023. Most protests are non-violent, however, there is a realistic possibility that any demonstration that features a heavy police presence could turn violent.

In January 2023, a nationwide movement against pension reforms led to mass strikes and resulted in hundreds of thousands of people across numerous cities protesting. There were multiple incidents of violent clashes between the police and protestors after the security forces were alleged to have used heavy-handed tactics. The clashes are reported to have resulted in over 500 people being injured.

In June 2023, much of France experienced up to three weeks of violent riots and looting in numerous cities following the fatal police shooting of an unarmed 17-year-old from the north African diaspora. Although the victim was shot in Paris, it triggered riots in many of the major French cities were the RWC is being held such as Marseille, Lyon and Lille. This incident highlights the propensity for such events to gather momentum and spread across the country.

It is recommended that any travellers to France during the RWC monitor local media to identify any news events that have the potential for nationwide escalation.

There are several potential catalysts for protest activity and civil unrest during the RWC. The hangover from the pension reform presents a realistic possibility for disruption.

At the time of the unrest, demonstrators threatened targeting the Paris 2024 Olympics and the RWC presents another international event, that if disrupted would embarrass the French government.

There are no significant planned strikes or protests currently planned for the RWC however longstanding issues such as the socio-economic situation, the ‘Yellow Vest’ movement, and tensions over immigration are all potential catalysts.

The greatest civil unrest threat however is highly likely to come from environmental protesters, who have been increasingly targeting large scale public, sporting events, to draw attention to their cause.

There is also a sustained threat posed by French football hooliganism, with many Ligue 1 matches due to occur during the RWC. It is recommended that any RWC fans, especially those wearing national team jerseys, avoid any large gatherings of French football fans as there is a realistic possibility that they will target foreigners.

Environmental factors and weather in France during the RWC will likely vary considerably between each region given the tournaments broad geographic scope.

Current weather forecasts indicate the greatest environmental threat nationwide and particularly across the south, will most likely be extreme heat.

Projections indicate that temperatures may rise to five degrees Celsius above the typical averages. The summer of 2023 has witnessed severe wildfires affecting much of the south of France. With temperatures unseasonably hot, there is a chance that this trend may continue into the RWC. However, this risk will diminish significantly as the RWC progresses into Autumn.

The terrorist threat level in France was lowered to medium or the “attack risk” level in March 2023. This level indicates that it is very likely that terrorists will try to conduct an attack in France.

France has been targeted by several high-profile terrorist attacks in recent years, the most infamous of which was the 2015 Paris attack where the Stade de France was targeted by suicide bombers. The principal terror threat in France is posed by Islamic extremists.

France is almost certainly targeted by terrorists for its foreign policy, military interventions to combat the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, as well as extremist groups in several African nations, France’s commitment to freedom of expression and to influence France’s large Muslim population.

Despite the Paris attacks, large and coordinated terrorist attacks are rare in France. Terrorist attacks are most likely to be perpetrated by radicalised lone-wolf Islamic extremists using knives, firearms, or vehicles.

Attacks are likely to be indiscriminate in nature but will prioritise the targeting of transport hubs, government buildings, Jewish affiliated establishments, and tourist attractions. The non-specific, lone-wolf and geographically broad scope of such attacks means there are limited measures which can be taken to pre-empt an attack.

The RWC, as a high-profile and international event, raises the potential risk of terrorist targeting due to the significant global repercussions and attention an attack could generate. However, it is almost certain that the French authorities will have robust countermeasures in place, including an enhanced security presence, mass surveillance systems, physical barriers, emergency response plans, the deployment of specialist units and would have conducted thorough risk assessments.