Global Risk Outlook 2026

Mano Dura Governance: The Spread of Hardline Crime Policy in Latin America

How Mano Dura Policing Is Reshaping Latin America

In 2015, El Salvador had the highest homicide rate in the world. By 2025, it had one of the lowest in Latin America, and its crime-control model is now being exported across the region.

Driven by public demand for security and political incentives, governments from Ecuador to Peru are adopting aspects of El Salvador’s “Mano Dura” approach: large-scale crackdowns, expanded police powers, and mega-prisons. But replication is proving far more complex – and far more risky – in countries with larger, better-armed, and more embedded criminal groups.

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What’s Behind the Political Appeal of Mano Dura Crime Policy?

Public frustration over rising crime has made Mano Dura politically popular. Leaders in Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Peru, and Chile have either implemented or announced variations of the model, often linking them to political campaigns or emergency powers.

This trend is being shaped by a mix of domestic security pressures, media narratives, and regional political dynamics. In some cases, U.S. alignment and migration policy have also influenced adoption, particularly in countries seeking closer ties with Washington.

What Are the Security Risks of Adopting Mano Dura?

While El Salvador has seen measurable crime reduction, other countries face different criminal ecosystems. Groups in Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador are often decentralised, heavily armed, and embedded within state institutions, making them far more resistant to hardline crackdowns.

There is a credible risk that efforts to replicate Mano Dura could provoke violent escalation, particularly in strategic drug trafficking hubs. In countries with federal structures or fragmented governance, the logistical and political challenges are likely to be even greater.

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