Quarterly Election Briefing

Election Guide: Q4 2025

Global Political Transitions & Emerging Risks Shaping Q4 2025

As the year draws to a close, a series of pivotal elections will influence political and economic stability across Africa, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. From long-standing incumbents facing renewed pressure to fragile democracies navigating reform, these votes are likely to shape risk landscapes for travellers, businesses, and government operations well into 2026.

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Cameroon | Presidential Elections: 12 October

Could Cameroon’s long-serving president face new challenges to power?

Cameroon’s 12 October election sees 92-year-old President Paul Biya pursue an eighth term after over four decades in power. Opposition candidates have been sidelined, and civil society continues to face restrictions. With tensions high and public frustration deepening, further unrest remains likely if the result is widely perceived as illegitimate.

Bolivia | Presidential Run-Off: 19 October

Could renewed Morales-led protests follow Bolivia’s election?

Bolivia heads to a presidential run-off on 19 October following the collapse of the long-dominant MAS party. With former rivals Rodrigo Paz Pereira and Jorge Quiroga competing for power, political rhetoric has intensified. Ex-president Evo Morales remains influential outside the ballot, raising the potential for renewed demonstrations and economic disruption.

Ivory Coast | Presidential & Parliamentary Elections: 25 October & 27 December

What does Ouattara’s fourth-term campaign mean for political reform?

President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to run for a fourth term has reignited debate over term limits in Ivory Coast. With key opposition leaders barred and arrests mounting, the risk of demonstrations is increasing. The vote will test whether the government can maintain stability without repeating the unrest of past elections.

Argentina | Parliamentary Elections: 26 October

Argentina’s parliamentary elections on 26 October serve as a referendum on President Javier Milei’s radical economic agenda. His austerity programme has curbed inflation but sparked widespread protests. The outcome will influence the government’s ability to advance reforms and could shape investor confidence for the year ahead.

Tanzania | General Elections: 28 October

Can Tanzania’s 2025 elections deliver real political competition?

Tanzania’s 28 October elections are set to reaffirm Chama Cha Mapinduzi’s long-standing dominance. With leading opposition figures detained or disqualified, the political field remains tightly controlled. Limited space for dissent and previous violent crackdowns suggest a constrained electoral environment and potential for sporadic unrest.

Netherlands | Parliamentary Elections: 29 October

Is the Netherlands heading toward another fragmented coalition?

The Netherlands returns to the polls on 29 October after a coalition collapse over asylum policy. With fragmented parties and shifting alliances, forming a stable government is likely to prove difficult. While the vote is expected to remain peaceful, polarisation and sporadic protests underline growing political tension across the country.

Iraq | Parliamentary Elections: 11 November

Could Iraq’s vote trigger another government formation crisis?

Iraq’s parliamentary election on 11 November comes amid deep divisions within Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish blocs. The reintroduction of proportional representation is unlikely to prevent further fragmentation or a prolonged struggle to form a government. Militia influence and uncertainty around the planned US troop withdrawal increase the likelihood of instability during and after the vote.

Haiti | General Elections: 14 November

Can Haiti hold credible elections amid widespread gang control?

Haiti’s planned 14 November general election takes place under a state of emergency, with gangs controlling most of Port-au-Prince and surrounding regions. Despite international backing, the transitional council lacks the authority and resources to ensure credible polling. The country’s fragile security situation makes widespread disruption highly likely.

Chile | General Elections: 16 November

What does rising polarisation mean for Chile’s political future?

Chile’s 16 November election features a stark contest between far-left candidate Jeanette Jara and far-right contender José Antonio Kast. Polls suggest neither will win outright, making a runoff almost certain. With deep divisions over economic reform, inequality, and crime, the outcome could spark renewed street protests similar to those seen in previous years.

Guinea-Bissau | General Elections: 23 November

Can Guinea-Bissau break its cycle of unrest through the upcoming vote?

Guinea-Bissau’s elections follow years of political tension and allegations of authoritarian rule by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Security forces have repeatedly clashed with protesters, and past votes have sparked coups. With opposition distrust and media restrictions intensifying, the election’s legitimacy remains uncertain and unrest is possible.

Honduras | General Elections: 30 November

How will corruption scandals influence Honduras’ general election?

Honduras votes on 30 November amid widespread mistrust in the electoral process and deep political division. Corruption allegations, logistical failures, and tight polling between main parties heighten the risk of post-election unrest. Protests are likely in major cities if the results are contested or viewed as manipulated.

Central African Republic | General Elections: 28 December

Could renewed violence derail voting in the Central African Republic?

The Central African Republic holds elections on 28 December against a backdrop of persistent conflict and Russian military involvement. Rebel activity, limited state control, and alleged human-rights abuses continue to undermine public confidence. The vote is unlikely to be transparent and may exacerbate instability in already fragile regions.

Myanmar | General Elections: 28 December

How will Myanmar’s phased voting shape the junta’s hold on power?

Myanmar’s junta plans to begin its phased general election on 28 December, with most credible opposition parties banned or boycotting the process. The military’s control of voting areas and a new proportional system virtually guarantee its dominance. Ongoing conflict, displacement, and international condemnation suggest the election will entrench, rather than resolve, the crisis.

Guinea | Presidential Elections: December

Can Guinea’s government deliver a credible vote after years of uncertainty?

Guinea’s presidential election in December is set to be the first since the 2021 coup that ousted President Alpha Condé. The ruling junta faces pressure to return the country to civilian rule, but opposition parties have questioned the transparency of the process. With rising public frustration over delays and security concerns, tensions are likely to increase in the weeks surrounding the vote.