Catalan Independence Vote and Political Risks

• The Spanish region of Catalonia is due to hold an independence referendum on 01 October 2017.
• The vote is contentious; Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has claimed the vote will not go ahead.
• Spain’s military police force, the Civil Guard, have raided government offices in Catalonia.

Political: On 1 October 2017, the Catalonia regional government plan to hold a referendum on independence from Spain. However, the government in Madrid have called the vote unconstitutional and have vowed to prevent it taking place.

Initial calls for an independence referendum were made by the Catalonia parliament in June 2017 and this was subsequently agreed to by an act of the regional parliament in September. The bill stated that the referendum was to be binding on a simple majority. Spain’s constitutional court suspended the legislation which underpinned the referendum on 7 September in order to deliberate on its legality. Madrid has maintained a longstanding policy of refusing to negotiate or discuss the issue of Catalan independence.

It is unclear what level of referendum will take place. The Spanish government in Madrid have deployed and extra 3,000-4,000 police to the region to prevent the vote. The Catalonia region’s prosecutor has ordered the Catalonia police force to take control of polling booths and identify those in charge; the Catalan police service has also been brought under federal control. Spain’s attorney general has refused to rule out the possibility of arresting Catalonia’s President, Carles Puigdemont, for disobedience, breaching public duties, and misuse of public funds for proceeding with the poll. On 20 September 2017, Spanish police raided a dozen Catalan government offices, arrested 14 senior officials, and confiscated millions of ballot papers – this brought thousands of pro-independence protestors to the streets of Barcelona. These moves demonstrate the break down in the Madrid-Catalan relationship. Puigdemont, for his part, has vowed to announce independence within two days of a victory for the yes campaign.

Catalan leaders are all too well aware that this vote is not legally-binding and only symbolic. The importance for the Catalan independence movement is turnout – something that will likely be disrupted by the actions of Madrid. The last independence referendum in 2014 saw 80 per cent of people vote for independence though the turnout was only 37 per cent. Recent polling suggests that Catalonia’s residents are evenly split on the issue of independence, though most wanted to see the issue put to a legal and mutually agreed referendum. Before Madrid’s intervention in the vote, the pro-independence movement would have hoped that a large turnout with a large majority would have sent a strong message to government. Even if this vote goes ahead to some degree of success, Catalan independence is unlikely to be recognised by any major international powers.

Authorities in Madrid fear that independence in one region, or the clear and present threat of it, may lead to a disintegration of the country. If Catalonia tries for independence, Madrid fears that locations such as the Basque Country could be next followed by other regions with distinct cultural identities. The EU and European nations will be watching this vote closely; there are several active independence movements, to a varying degree of popularity, across the continent presently.