Global Risk Outlook 2026

Bangladesh: Political Transition and Security Risks

What the Post-Revolution Unrest Means for Bangladesh’s Stability

Following the collapse of the Awami League government in mid-2024, Bangladesh has entered a volatile political transition. The student-led revolution opened space for reform — but also unleashed deep-seated social, economic, and sectarian tensions.

With a high-stakes general election and constitutional referendum due in February 2026, violence, instability, and uncertainty are mounting — affecting political continuity, economic recovery, and wider regional dynamics.

Download the full report

What’s Driving Violence and Instability in Bangladesh?

The revolution removed a deeply entrenched political system — but left a power vacuum. Three main political forces are now competing to shape Bangladesh’s future: the BNP, the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, and the new student-led National Citizen Party.

Ongoing power struggles, sectarian tensions, and attempts to dismantle patronage systems have all fuelled unrest. Political violence, including mob attacks and assassinations, remains widespread. Over 1,050 incidents were recorded in the 12 months to September 2025.

Security and Economic Risks for Bangladesh in 2026

The February 2026 vote will be decisive. If seen as unfair or illegitimate, it risks triggering long-term unrest and undermining efforts at reform. The interim government lacks strong institutional control, and key sectors — including garment manufacturing — are under pressure.

Instability has already led to factory closures and investor withdrawal in key industrial hubs. Continued unrest would increase risks for regional supply chains, foreign nationals, and long-term commercial planning.

Download the Full Report

Access detailed insights to support informed planning and strengthen decision-making.