Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46

Headlines From This Week

Coup in Zimbabwe – On 15 November, the military in Zimbabwe took over the running of the country. Long-time President Robert Mugabe has been put under house arrest, with reports suggesting he has refused to step aside. The coup has been peaceful and came about due to the issues of succession to the 93-year-old leader. The military moved after Mugabe sacked Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa last week, signalling that his wife Grace would be the one to take over. The situation in the country is very unclear at present.
Earthquake on Iran-Iraq Border – A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck close to the Iran-Iraq border, in Kermanshah Province, Iran on 12 November. There are differing estimates on the death toll with a figure as high as 530 reported in some media with most of the fatalities occurring in Iran. Thousands more have been injured and tens of thousands have been left homeless. The earthquake was felt as far away as Israel. Questions have been raised about the quality of buildings in the region, many of which collapsed.
End of Opposition in Cambodia – Prime Minister Hun Sen has increased his grip on power in Cambodia, after the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was banned by the Supreme Court on 16 November. 100 members of the CNRP were barred from politics for five years ‘for conspiring with foreigners to stage a revolution’. The US has already announced the suspension of financial support for the Cambodian National Election Committee ahead of the 2018 election. Further sanctions from Cambodia’s western partners should be expected but China has voiced support for the government. No significant protests have so far been reported.
Terrorism in Borno – A terror attack on the outskirts of Maiduguri in Nigeria’s Borno state led to the death of 18 people including four suicide bombers. At least 29 others have been seriously; the death toll is expected to rise. Two males and two females infiltrated the Muna Gari community. The attack has been attributed to the Islamic militant group Boko Haram.
Deadly Floods in Central Greece – At least 15 people have been killed after flash floods caused destruction to the west of Greece’s capital Athens. At least 37 others were taken to hospital. The towns of Mandra, Nea Peramos, and Megara were the most affected. Some roads faced more than a metre of water. The Greek Prime Minister declared a period of national mourning.
A North Korean Defector – A North Korean soldier was shot five times by his former comrades as he crossed the demilitarised zone to defect to South Korea. The South Korean military were put on high alert for fear of a retaliatory attack which never emerged. The identity of the defector remains unknown, but doctors have confirmed that he has ‘enormous parasites’.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Lebanon Crisis – The political crisis is ongoing in Lebanon. Despite suggesting he would be returning to Lebanon imminently, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has yet to do so. He has been invited to France by President Macron, who is seeking to mediate in the crisis. Some have suggested that this could lead to a long-term exile for Hariri. Lebanon celebrates its national day on 22 November, there is the potential for protests and demonstrations on this day.
US Remembrance Day – Authorities in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania have advised those attending Remembrance Day Parade on 18 November of a “possible threat”. Those attending have been asked not to bring large bags. There is set to be a large local, state, and federal police presence at the event.
Chile Elections – Chileans are set to elect a new president on 19 November. A run-off vote will occur in December if no candidate gains more than 50 per cent of the vote. Security is to be stepped up with 900 members of the national police force to be deployed. Delays and disruption can be expected within the vicinity of polling stations.

Significant Dates & Events

18 November – Latvian National Day 18 November – Morocco Independence Day 18 November – Oman National Day 19 November – Maldives National Day 19 November – Monaco National Day 20 November – Farmer’s association to rally in Delhi, India 21 November – Anti-austerity protests due to take place across the UK 24 November – Myanmar National Day 24 November – Sikh festival of Guru Tegh Bahadur

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 46 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44

Headlines From The Week

Manhattan Terror Attack – Eight people were killed after an Uzbek immigrant drove a truck down a cycle path in Manhattan, New York City. He then hit a school bus before exiting the vehicle holding a pellet gun and a paintball gun; he was subsequently shot, injured, and arrested by police. The incident has been treated as a terror attack, with the attacker reportedly inspired by Islamic State. Almost a dozen others were injured.
Eritrea Clashes – Security forces clashed with student protestors in the Eritrean capital of Asmara. 28 people were allegedly killed and more than 100 injured on 07 November. These figures cannot be verified as they came from an anti-government activist group, though the US embassy did confirm reports of gunfire. Eritrea remains a hermit state, which many have called ‘the North Korea of Africa’.
Ethiopia – At least 19 people died in two separate incidents across Ethiopia in a series of incidents that demonstrate rising ethnic tensions in the nation. A sugar protest in Oromia state lead to 11 fatalities and 245 arrests, with Oromia-Amhara tensions being a contributing factor. In western Gumuz state, a further eight were killed and 11 arrested after ethnic Amhara and Gumuz groups engaged in violence following a personal feud.
North Korea warnings – The South Korean intelligence agency reported that the North was likely to recommence the refinement of nuclear materials before the end of 2017, and that facilities were prepared for another nuclear test with little to no warning. There is a realistic possibility that North Korea will carry out a further nuclear test during President Trump’s tour of Asia, or in the build up to the South Korean Winter Olympics in early 2018. Seismologists have detected a notable increase in instability in the North Korean nuclear test area following their most recent test, which could be notably worsened by further testing.
India power plant – At least 29 people were killed following an explosion at the National Thermal Power Corporation’s site in Uttar Pradesh. Preliminary investigations indicate that the blast was the result of lax safety and operations procedures, not of intentional sabotage.
France State of Emergency – Two years after its initial implementation, France has rescinded its State of Emergency due to the threat of terrorism. A series of new legislation has enacted some powers from the State of Emergency into routine legal and law enforcement practice, in order to better deal with the ongoing threat.
Kenya Elections – The incumbent President, Uhuru Kenyatta, was formally declared the winner of the 26 October poll, with approximately 98 per cent of the vote after the principal opposition group opted to boycott the election. Opposition leaders have called for ongoing civil disobedience.

What To Look Out For Next Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump is scheduled to complete a six-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour is highly likely to attract an enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. Disruption to travel, therefore, is highly likely. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila will host the President throughout this period.
International Cube Day – “Anonymous for the Voiceless’, an animal, environment, and health rights groups have organised ‘International Cube Day’ in 186 cities around the world to demonstrate for their causes. It is unclear how much disruption their demonstrations will cause; their Facebook event pages do not suggest that more than a dozen attendees will be at each of the ‘cubes’, however the number of events to be held is significant.
Tropical Storm Damrey – Flooding is expected across Vietnam and Thailand as Tropical Storm Damrey crosses from west to east across the region. Areas struck by the storm are likely to receive between 150mm and 300mm of rain. This level of rainfall is highly likely to lead to landslides and protracted disruption.

Significant Dates & Event

04 November – Far right group Forza Nuova group plans to protest in Rome.
04 November – Government-authorised ultra-nationalist march planned in southern Moscow.
05 November – Pakistan People’s Party rally in Punjab’s Layyah.
05 November – Million Mask March in London’s Trafalgar Square.
06 November – Asia Pacific Economic Conference in Da Nang, Vietnam.
06 November – Sicily’s Vincenzo Florio Airport to close for five days.
07 November – Nationwide Italian taxi-drivers protest due to new licensing rules.
07 November – Liberian presidential election run-off.
09 November – Falkland Island elections. Protests possible in Buenos Aires.
09 November – Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Brazil.
10 November – Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Manila.

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 44 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43

Headlines From This Week

Kenya Presidential Elections – The re-run of the August 2017 elections was held on 26 October. The vote was marred by widespread violence, a boycott by the opposition NASA and its leader Raila Odinga, and a turnout of around 35 per cent. President Kenyatta looks set to win this latest poll, but it is unclear if a further vote will be forced to take place. Violence, however, is expected to continue in NASA strongholds especially.
Piracy near Bonny Island – On 24 October, six crew members were kidnapped from a Liberia-flagged, Germanowned container vessel in the Gulf of Guinea. Eight attackers approached the vessel in a black speedboat prior to boarding the ship and seizing crew. The remaining 12 crew members navigated the ship to safer waters after the pirates departed.
Niger Police Attacked on Mali Border – Gunmen attacked and killed 13 Niger police officers near the Mali border. The attack occurred close to where four US soldiers were killed in early October 2017. The militants were reportedly heavily armed on pickup trucks and motorcycles, crossing from Mali into Niger to conduct their attack. There are several Islamic militant groups active in the area. This incident demonstrates the instability in this region.
Temer Avoids Corruption Trial – Brazil’s embattled president has avoided a corruption trial after securing enough votes in the lower house of Congress. He has been accused of obstructing justice and racketeering. Temer faced a similar vote in August of this year. It is possible that this will lead to unrest on the streets of Brazil with Temer currently enduring the lowest recorded approval ratings in Brazilian history.
The Battle for Catalonia – The political battle between Madrid and the Catalan region escalated this week. The regional government in Catalonia voted to declare independence 70-10 in a vote boycotted by the opposition. This move is unlikely to be ratified by the Spanish Constitutional Court or be recognised by any international government. In Madrid, the Senate voted 214 votes to 47 to approve measures allowing Spain to impose direct rule over the autonomous region. Further protests are likely and may turn violent.
Turkey-Iraq Border – The Turkish and Iraqi governments have finalised an agreement to open a second border crossing in order to bypass the Kurdish Regional Government, which presently controls the official route between the two countries. This highlights that both parties consider the issue of Kurdish independence and control of the border as a notable and ongoing threat to their national relations. The move will also deprive the Kurdish region of the leverage and income opportunities provided by control of the trade route.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Morocco Protests – The Hirak committee has called for demonstrations across Morocco on 28 October 2017. This latest wave of protest began after a fishmonger was killed by a rubbish truck last year. Unrest is most prevalent in the turbulent Al-Hoceima and Rif regions, in the north of the country. Violence has been reported in previous protests, with clashes between protestors and security personnel a strong possibility.
Tropical Storm Selma – Another tropical storm looks set to hit the Americas. Selma has formed off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica and is expected to move inland over El Salvador and Guatemala over the weekend. While the storm is unlikely to strengthen further, it is expected to bring flash flooding, mudslides, and gale-force winds. The impact of Selma is already being felt in the region.
Pro-Palestine Protests – A series of pro-Palestine protests are due to take place next week. This includes one outside of the Israeli Embassy in Pretoria in South Africa, in Ireland outside of the British Embassy (both on 02 November), and in London, United Kingdom on 04 November.

Significant Dates & Events

28 October – Opposition rally planned in Baku, Azerbaijan
28 October – Czech Republic marks its independence from Austria-Hungary
28 October – South Korean trade unions plan to rally
28 October – Taipei, Taiwan hosts a LGBT pride parade
29 October – Turkey celebrates its Republic Day
01 November – Algeria celebrates its Revolution Day
01 November – Christian holiday of All Saints Day
01 November – Antigua and Barbuda Independence Day
03 November – Dominica Independence Day
03 November – Panama celebrates Separation Day
03 November – Military drills planned in Sharjah, UAE

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 43 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 43 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

20 Oct 17: Vessel Attack 49nm Southeast of Brass, Nigeria. The vessel was attacked in approximate position 3°55’0N, 6°39’0E at 1834UTC. One black boat travelling around 25knots approached the vessel and fired shots. Embarked Navy team returned fire. The boat followed for 25 mins before moving away. 21 Oct 17: Vessel Attack 36nm Southwest of Bonny Island. The MV was attacked in approximate position 3°47’0N, 7°9’0 E at 0600UTC. Eight armed pirates boarded the vessel. Six crew members were kidnapped, including the Master and Chief Officer. 23 Oct 17: Supply Vessel Attacked off Bonny, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 4°0’0N, 6°49’2E at 0955UTC. Fifteen pirates on two speed boats approached and opened fire. The pirates were reported to be armed with AK-47 rifles and a general purpose machine guns (GPMG). Armed security personnel onboard the Nigerian Navy escort vessel returned fire. Some pirates suffered injuries. The supply vessel and crew are safe. 25 Oct 17: Tanker Attacked Southwest of Bonny Island. The MV was attacked in approximate position 3°35’5N, 6°49’2E at 2005UTC, 52nm southwest. Two armed pirates boarded the vessel but the crew mustered in the citadel. The crew were reported safe

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

24 Oct 17: Iranian Dhow Attacked 41nm Southeast of Socotra. Pirates are suspected of attacking the vessel in approximate position 11°50’0N, 54°35’0E at 0748UTC. Iranian coast guard requested assistance from the US Navy; three crew from the dhow were injured and treated by the US warship when it later arrived to the scene.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

23 Oct 17: ASEAN Defense Ministers Agree to Increase Counter-Terrorism Measures. In light of the announcement that Marawi has been liberated from Islamic extremist fighters, ministers reiterated their commitment to strengthening joint air and maritime patrols already in place to counter the threat of terrorism in their common maritime borders. 25 Oct 17: Tanker Boarded in Cilacap Anchorage, Indonesia. Four armed robbers boarded the vessel in approximate position 7°44’1S, 109°4’0E at 2020UTC. Duty crew noticed the robbers on the main deck. The alarm was raised and all crew mustered. The robbers escaped with stolen ships properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 43 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 43 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

November 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – November 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The November 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 42 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

16 Oct 17: Nigeria and Ghana Sign MoU to Combat Sea Pirates. The four year Memorandum of Understanding will facilitate knowledge sharing and capacitybuilding between the two nations. The MoU is anticipated to last for four years.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

14 Oct 17: Al Shabaab Conduct Large Terror Attack in Mogadishu. Three hundred people have been reported killed, and many more injured in the bomb attack, with many more injured. The attack occurred at Zoobe junction. 16 Oct 17: Military Plans in Place for Al Hodeida Port. Backed by the Saudicoalition, military plans are in place to oust Houthi fighters from Al Hodeida. The port is seen as a key stronghold and source of revenue for Houthi forces. 17 Oct 17: Bulk Carrier Boarded in Kandla Anchorage, India. The anchored vessel was boarded in position 22°47’3N, 70°1’8E at 1630UTC. The duty officer spotted the robbers and raised the alarm. The robbers escaped with stolen ships properties.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

16 Oct 17: Five Fishermen Seized in Sulu. The fishermen from the FB Danvil 9 were abducted by armed men whilst in Port Poblacion. 17 Oct 17: Philippine President Declares Marawi Liberated. The announcement came even though small pockets of Islamic State militants remain. There were concerns the island of Mindanao would become a haven for IS fighters, impacting regional maritime security. The city was occupied for 148 days, in which 1000 people were killed, mostly fighters, and severe damage to the city centre caused by airstrikes.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 42 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 42 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42

Headlines From The Week

Chinese Communist Party Congress – Over 2,000 senior delegates from China’s ruling Communist Party gathered for their five-yearly Party Congress. This has been marked by a significant increase in security measures in Beijing. All signs so far point to a solidification of power around President Xi, with no discernible signs of dissent which could represent potential for unrest.
Kirkuk Seized by Iraqi Army – Iraqi federal troops, supported by Iranian-backed Shia militias, retook Kirkuk from the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Only one brief exchange of fire was reported during the initial phase of the operation, Kurdish forces otherwise withdrew peacefully. On 20 October 2017, further fighting was reported in the Alton Kupri area, north of the city. The cause of this incident remains unclear. Up to 100,000 ethnically Kurdish civilians fled the city as the Peshmerga withdrew, fearing ethnic violence from the Shia militias. This exodus is likely to cause disruption in other Kurdish cities, particularly Erbil. The Iraqi army has been ordered not advance further than the pre- 2003 border of the Kurdish Autonomous Region.
Somali Hotel Attack – A truck-borne suicide bomb struck a hotel near the foreign ministry in Mogadishu, killing over 300 people, and wounding a further 400. Officials indicate that the attack was carried out by the Islamist insurgent group, Al Shabaab, although the group has not claimed responsibility for the attack. It is likely that the attacker sought to strike the foreign ministry building, and may not have intended to inflict vast civilian casualties.
Extensive Wildfires in Portugal and Spain – Large wildfires have spread throughout northern Portugal and Spain. They are believed to have been intentionally set by arsonists and exacerbated by an abnormally dry summer. Present estimates place the death-toll for this set of fires at 44. Travel in the affected areas has been heavily disrupted and extensive evacuations were implemented where the fires threatened inhabited areas.
Mersin IED Attack – An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated against a bus carrying Turkish police officers in Mersin on 17 October, injuring 17 police officers and one civilian. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but officials have indicated that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgent group are most likely to have carried out the attack.
Church Attack and Bank Robbery in Sinai – Islamist insurgents opened fire on security personnel near the Church of Saint George in El Arish, Egypt on 16 October. A second group then attacked a nearby bank, whilst security forces were distracted, and emptied the safe. Officials reported that seven people were killed and 15 wounded during the combined attack.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kenya Unrest – Kenya’s President Kenyatta has insisted that the presidential election will continue to go ahead on 26 October 2017, despite his main opponent pulling out of the race. Political rallies and protests have continued across the country, both to demonstrate support for the two main parties, and to protest against perceived irregularities in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. This unrest is highly likely to continue and escalate up to, and beyond, the election date with the main opposition party calling for protests. Protests in Kenya regularly turn violent.
Thai Royal Funeral – Bangkok is to host the five-day long state funeral for King Bhumibol from 25 to 29 October, following more than a year of official mourning. The event is being replicated across the country by 85 scaleddown versions of the ceremony, and is likely to attract high attendance from Thai citizens. Provision of services is highly likely to be disrupted throughout the country.
Tropical storm Lan – The Japanese mainland is likely to be struck by Tropical Storm Lan between 22 and 23 October. The storm is presently a category-two storm; however, it is likely to strengthen to at least category-three before striking Japan. Travellers should comply with the instructions of local authorities.

Significant Dates & Events

22 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Austin, Texas
22 October – Curfew in place from 0800 – 1700 due to census. All travellers must comply with the curfew
22 October – Argentine legislative elections
24 October – Women’s rights protest in Santiago, Chile
24 October – Zambia’s Independence Day
25 October – Royal funeral ceremonies begin, Bangkok, Thailand
27 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Mexico City
27 October – Turkmenistan’s Independence Day
28 October – Trade union protests in Seoul, South Korea

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 42 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41

Headlines From This Week

California Wildfires – 31 people have now been confirmed dead after wildfires swept through northern California. Hundreds remain missing and there are at least 22 active fires at present. More than 3,500 buildings and 68,000 hectares of land have been destroyed, with 8,000 firefighters tackling the various blazes. Officials have warned that conditions will worsen.
Tensions in Kurdistan – Friction between the government in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan continue to rise after the recent independence referendum. Kurdish Peshmerga military forces have claimed that the Iraqi army and its militia allies are preparing to attack Kirkuk, which falls outside of their semi-autonomous zone but is held by Kurdish forces at present. Tensions continue to rise in the region, with Syria, Turkey, and Iran, countries with significant Kurdish populations, watching on closely. Any war between the Kurds and Baghdad could have significant negative consequences for stability in the region.
Kenya Turmoil – It has been a tumultuous week in Kenya and Kenyan politics. Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition in Kenya (NASA), announced plans to pull out of this month’s re-run elections due to issues with the election commission. The impact on the election itself is unclear. Odinga’s supporters have taken to the streets in protest. So much so that the Kenya government has banned protests in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Protestors have ignored this instruction and further violent clashes between police and demonstrators have occurred and are expected to continue.
DRC Elections – The election commission of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that there would be no elections in the country before 2019. The commission claims that more time is needed to adequately prepare. This delay raises concerns that there will be a surge in violence in the already unstable country; activists have already called for resistance in response to the delays.
US-Turkey Diplomatic Issues – Relations between Turkey and the United States, both key members of NATO, seem to be at an all-time low. The US reacted to the arrest of a member of its consular staff by freezing its nonimmigrant visa services in Turkey. The US fears that arrests of its citizens and personnel in Turkey are being made in order to force the US to extradite Fetullah Gulen. Gulen and his followers have been accused of orchestrating the coup attempt last year.
Vietnam Flooding – Flooding and landslides have killed at least 54 people in Vietnam since a tropical depression hit northern and central areas at the beginning of this week. Another 39 people are missing. Infrastructural damage has hampered rescue attempts and travel conditions have become hazardous.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Tropical Storm Khanun – Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern China late on 15 October or early the next day, with Hainan and Guangdong provinces most at threat. The storm is expected to intensify over the South China Sea before hitting Vietnam, potentially causing further damage to areas already dealing with widespread flooding.
Diwali – The festival of Diwali, the ‘festival of lights’, occurs on 19 October, with celebrations lasting for five days. Diwali is observed by Hindus, Sikhs, Newar Buddhists, and Jains, most notably in the Indian subcontinent but also across the world. The festival is an official holiday in Fiji, Guyana, India, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Sindh province in Pakistan.
Elections in Kyrgyzstan – Kyrgyzstan is set for the most democratic election of all countries in the Central Asian region, where the president may only stand for one term. The president is elected using a two-round system, the first being on 15 October. There are tensions between Kyrgyz and Uzbek ethnic groups and it is possible that this election will lay such tensions bare. A state of emergency was issued in Osh during 2010 after clashes between the two groups.

Significant Dates & Events

14 October – World Ironman Championship, Hawaii
15 October – Anti-White Supremacy Rally in Toronto, Canada
15 October – Austrian legislative elections
15 October – Canton Fair begins in Guangzhou, China
15 October – Regional elections take place in Venezuela
16 October – Protests planned outside health ministry in Rabat, Morocco
19 October – CGT Union members in France set to take part in a 24-hour strike
20 October – Sikh Festival celebrating Installation of the Sri Guru Granth Sahib Ji
20-21 October – Czech legislative elections

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 41 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 41 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

8 Oct 17: Operation Crocodile Smile II – Nigerian Military Deploy Troops in Niger Delta. Militants have threatened attacks if the number of soldiers deployed in the region increases. 11 Oct 17: Supply Vessel Attacked and Boarded South of Brass, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 3°57’0N, 6°19’0E at 0820UTC. Seven to eight persons were sighted on the speed boat. The crew mustered to the citadel. Ships equipment and property were stolen. The robbers escaped when the security vessel closed on their position.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

6 Oct 17: Indian Navy Assist Bulk Carrier in Piracy Attack. The INS Trishul responded to the Jag Amar distress call at 1230UTC. The navy seized one AK47 assault rifle, along with grapnels, ropes, fuel drums and ladders. Twelve pirates made the pirate attempt on the vessel. 7 Oct 17: Suspicious Skiffs Reported in Gulf of Aden. Four dark coloured-hulled skiffs were sighted in position 11°56’11N, 44°43’46E at 0720UTC, near Point A IRTC. Four to five persons were reported on board. The skiffs approached up to 0.7nm and then turned away. 8 Oct 17: Somali Forces Kill Iranian Sailor. Puntland Maritime Police Forces spotted two boats reportedly illegally fishing in Somali waters. The incident reportedly occurred off the Ras Hafun coast. Another sailor was injured in the incident.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 Oct 17: US Warship Sails Near Islands Claimed by South China Sea. A US Navy destroyer sailed near islands prompting an angry response from Beijing. China’s Defense Ministry stated a warship, two fighter jets and a helicopter were scrambled to warn the USS Chafee away. 12 Oct 17: Unmanned Rig Being Towed Boarded in Singapore Straits. Five persons in two crafts approached and boarded the rig in position 1°11’1N, 103°33’6E at 0020UTC. The tug master raised the alarm and notified local authorities who responded; however, the persons escaped.

Click link to Download PDF:Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 41 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 41 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

October 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – October 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The October 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 37 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Sep 17: Militants Threaten Sterling Global Oil Operations Over Pollution and Regional Neglect Allegations. The threat was made from Port Harcourt, Nigeria by ex-militant leaders. The firm is believed to not have complied with environmental standards.

8 Sep 17: Militants Withdraw Quit Notice. The Coalition of Niger Delta Agitators withdrew their threat to northerners and Yoruba working in the Niger Delta, after an agreement was reached with stakeholders in the region

8 Sep 17: Pirate Attack in Conakry Anchorage, Guinea. Seven robbers boarded the vessel armed with knives and crowbars. The incident occurred in position 9°21’96N, 13°44’48W at 0316UTC. The robbers attempted to kidnap the master; however, after 15mins they left the vessel with only some stolen ships properties. The crew were reported safe.

12 Sep 17: Protesters in Akwa Ibom, Nigeria Leave Coffins Outside Mobil’s Facilities. One coffin was left outside Mobil’s residential facilities in Eket, Akwa Ibom State, another at the airstrip, and another at Marina Junction in the city. Youths were protesting Mobil’s refusal to move its head office from Lagos to Akwa Ibom State.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

8 Sep 17: French and EUNAVFOR Warships Exercise at Sea Off the Coast of Somalia. The French FS Auvergne and ITS Virginio Fasan conducted counter-piracy exercises in an effort to enhance cooperation.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Sep 17: Ten Pirates Arrested for MGT1 Tanker Hijack. The arrested pirates are Indonesian nationals. None of the 14 crew members, all of whom are Thai, were injured. The search for three accomplices who escaped in a small boat continues.

11 Sep 17: Theft from Anchored Vessel in Samarinda, Indonesia. Duty personnel aboard a bulk carrier noted opened hatches and mooring ropes missing whilst at anchor at 0°13’3 S, 117°33’5 E at 2030UTC.

15 Sep 17: North Korea Fires Second Ballistic Missile Over Japan. This missile flew higher and further than the previous launch. South Korea responded by firing two ballistic missiles into the sea in a simulated strike.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 37 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 37 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Irma – Hurricane Irma has been described as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane in history, reaching a Category Five storm. At least 1.2 million people have been affected by the storm as it ripped through a number of Caribbean islands including Barbuda, where Irma has estimated to have destroyed 95 per cent of dwellings. Irma has now weakened to a Category Four storm as it moves past Turks and Caicos and Cuba, towards Bahamas, and Florida. It is then expected to become a Category Two storm as it passes Miami (by early morning, 11 September). The British and French governments, who both have overseas territories in the region, have promised finances to help locals rebuild. A number of islands in the Caribbean are now on watch for Hurricane Jose, which is expected to be a Category Four Storm.
Mexico Earthquake – Mexican authorities have confirmed that at least 27 people were killed after an 8.2 magnitude earthquake, the strongest to hit the country in a century, struck off the coast of the state of Chiapas late night on 8 September. Hundreds of thousands have been left without power and multiple buildings have collapsed, some with people inside; extensive damage has been noted in Chiapas and Oaxaca states. A tsunami warning has been issued for countries across the Pacific, including as far away as New Zealand and Ecuador. Waves of three metres are expected to continue to hit the Mexican coast. The Mexican government has mobilised the military to assist in operations.
North Korea Nuclear Test – For much of 2017, North Korea has been testing its ballistic missile technology, with missiles generally falling into the sea. However, on 3 September, Pyongyang conducted a test on a nuclear device – its sixth to date. Analysts have suggested that this was a new type of hydrogen bomb. The test caused the equivalent of a 6.3 magnitude earthquake and was felt across the border in China. It is now feared that Pyongyang has been able to shrink a nuclear warhead to such an extent that it could fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The test was widely condemned and new sanctions are expected.
Anti-THAAD protests in South Korea – Dozens were injured after police and protesters clashed in Seongju on 7 September. Protesters had taken to the streets to voice opposition to the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile system, which has been upgraded in light of the recent North Korea nuclear test. China also launched its own diplomatic protest, seeing the missile system as a threat to its sovereignty.
Protests in Togo – Thousands have taken to the streets in the small African nation of Togo between 6-7 September, to protest against President Gnassingbe and his family’s 50-year rule. The unrest marks the largest challenge to his rule since his 2005 ascension to power. Togo authorities have reportedly cut off internet access in response and fired tear gas to contain protestors.

What To Look Out For Next Week

North Korea National Day – North Korea commemorates its ‘Day of the Foundation of the Republic’ on 9 September. The day is one of the most important on the North Korean calendar. South Korea is already preparing for a missile launch, as tests regularly occur on days of national significance.
UN General Assembly – The 72nd session of the UN General Assembly is due to take place between 12 and 20 September. High on the agenda is likely to be the issues regarding North Korea’s nuclear and missile programme, alongside other current global flashpoints. The UN General Assembly is based in New York City and regularly brings widespread travel disruption to the city as dignitaries from around the world attend the event. Travellers should expect numerous road closures around the UN building in Manhattan’s East Side, with police encouraging the use of public transport during the affected period.
French General Strike – The left-wing French CGT union have called for a general strike on 12 September to protest against a government plan for labour market reform. It is unclear how many workers are due to take part in the strike but workers from state utility firm EDF and air traffic controllers have confirmed attendance. This could lead to electricity issues and travel disruption within France. Travellers should avoid any workers’ protests, which are liable to turn violent

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana Cycling Race
9 September – Tajikistan Independence Day
10 September – Belize National Day
10 September – Planned demonstrations against France’s state of emergency
10 September – Marriage equality rally due to take place in Sydney, Australia
12 September – Public transport workers plan protests in Lazio and Lombardy, Italy
15 September – Costa Rica Independence Day
15 September – Guatemala Independence Day
15 September – Honduras Independence Day
15 September – El Salvador Independence Day
15 September – Nicaragua Independence Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 36 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Harvey – At least 37 deaths related to Hurricane Harvey have been reported in southeastern Texas, after the Category Four hurricane made landfall on 25 August. Many areas faced more than a metre of rain and winds of 240 km/h were also recorded. Harvey has caused widespread flooding, most notably in the city of Houston. Other countries impacted by the hurricane include Guyana (where one person was killed), Barbados, Suriname, Nicaragua, and Belize.
Rohingya Clashes – Over the past week, an estimated 400 people have been killed in fighting in Myanmar’s northwest Rakhine state, after clashes between Rohingya Muslim insurgents, the military, and vigilantes. Many of the dead are civilians, with the Myanmar military facing international condemnation for atrocities committed. Close to 38,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled their villages and sought refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh according to the United Nations.
North Korea Missile Launch – North Korea initiated its 18th missile launch of the year. What makes this launch of particular importance is that it flew over Japan’s Hokkaido island before crashing into the sea. Japan warned its citizens to take shelter in a sturdy building or basement. Pyeongyang has vowed more tests.
Kenya Presidential Election Cancelled – Kenya’s Supreme Court has annulled the recent presidential election and ordered a new one to take place within 60 days, citing irregularities. This is a surprising move and comes despite international observers validating the transparency of the vote. There is the high potential for violent unrest in the lead up to, and following, the new election; at least 28 people died in the aftermath of the original vote.
Hajj Pilgrimage – Close to two million of the world’s Muslims have taken part in the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Hajj is then followed by the Eid al-Adha, one of the two most important Islamic festivals, which began on the evening of 31 August. In 2015, upwards of 800 were killed in stampedes during Hajj, some reports suggest that more than a dozen have been killed this year for a variety of reasons. Saudi Arabia has permitted Qatari nationals to attend despite their ongoing diplomatic dispute.
Nineveh Liberated – Iraqi officials declared the complete liberation of Nineveh province, as territory controlled by Islamic State (IS) in Iraq continues to be depleted. IS now controls only a few urban areas and some barren desert in central and western Iraq. The terror group are likely to increase terror attacks across Iraq with Shia Muslims likely to be specifically targeted.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Chile Protests – The ‘NO + AFP’ activist group are due to hold nationwide rallies on 3 September as they continue to protest the country’s private pension system. The largest rally is expected to occur in the capital Santiago, where protestors are due to gather and Plaza Italia. Protesters have been demanding an end to pension cuts for more than a year.
Frankfurt Bomb Disposal – On 3 September, some 70,000 residents of Frankfurt within a 1.5km radius of Wismarer Strasse in Westend district are due to be evacuated to allow officials to remove a 1,800kg World War IIera bomb. Evacuations are due to begin at 0600 local time with widespread travel disruptions predicted.
BRICS Summit – The ninth summit of the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – is due to take place in the Chinese city of Xiamen between 3 and 5 September. The BRICS members are leading developing countries and highly influential regional powers; they represent 23 per cent of world’s economy and 43 per cent of its population. The BRICS group is seen a potential challenger to the post-World War II western dominated international order. One important issue expected to be raised is the recent clashes on the Chinese Indian border.

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana Cycling Race
1-3 – Formula One Weekend in Monza, Italy
2 September – Vietnam National Day • 3 September – Calgary Pride Parade
3-10 September – Tour of Britain Cycling Race
4 September – Islamic Festival of Eid al Adha finishes
6 September – Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia
7 September – Brazil Independence Day
8 September – Macedonia Independence Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 34

Headlines From This Week

Typhoon Hato Hits Southern China – At least 12 people have been confirmed dead after Typhoon Hato swept across southern China on 23 August. Of those deceased, eight occurred in the Special Administrative Region of Macau with four deaths occurring in China’s Guangdong province. The storms caused extensive damage, travel disruptions, and power outages with businesses and schools temporarily closing in Macau, Hong Kong, and southern mainland China. This was the strongest storm to hit the region in at least five years, with Hato quickly strengthening into a typhoon.
Finland Stabbings – An 18-year-old Moroccan asylum seeker stabbed 10 people, leaving two dead and eight injured on 17 August in the city of Turku. The individual had been denied asylum in Finland and this attack is similar to ones seen in Germany in 2016, where failed asylum seekers attacked civilians. The attacker has denied a terrorist motive, despite Finland’s prime minister describing the event as terrorism.
Maldives Political Unrest – A political crisis is continuing in Maldives. On 22 August, opposition MPs were prevented from entering parliament to hold an impeachment vote on the Speaker by the army. Opposition MPs accuse President Yameen and his allies (such as the Speaker) of reversing years of democratic change.
Mexican Journalist Shot – Journalists continue to face violence in Mexico with newspaper reporter Candido Rios Vazquez killed on Veracruz state on 22 August. This occurred despite Rios being enrolled in a programme to protect journalists in Mexico. This was at least the ninth journalists to be killed in Mexico this year.
Netherlands Terror Incident – Police in Rotterdam, Netherlands cancelled a music concert at the Maassilo venue after receiving intelligence from Spanish authorities about a potential terror incident. Dutch security forces subsequently uncovered a van containing a number of gas bottles close to the venue of the concert. This preventative action and arrest of the van driver are not thought to be directly linked to the recent terror attack in Barcelona, Spain.
South Sudan Fuel Shortage – Widespread fuel shortages have caused severe travel disruption in South Sudan. This is having a serious impact on business and the livelihood of locals. It is possible this situation will lead to further unrest and issues with famine and inflation in the country.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Islamic Festival of Dhu al-Hijjah – The Islamic festival of Dhu al-Hijjah (the Hajj) concludes when Eid al Adha begins on 1 September. Eid al Adha is one of the holiest celebrations for the world’s Muslims and will conclude on 5 September. Large prayer celebrations can be expected across the Muslim world and in non-Muslim majority nations. The holy city of Mecca is expected to be especially busy during this time.
Notting Hill Carnival, London – One of Europe’s largest outdoor festivals takes place on the UK’s August Bank Holiday weekend (26-28 August) in the Notting Hill area of London. Whilst there is a strong police and steward presence, with so many people attending, each year the festival sees an increase in criminality, ranging from theft to drug offences to assault with bladed weapons. Injuries have also reported due to overcrowding. Widespread travel disruption will be experienced in the area of the parade.
Hurricane Harvey Heads for Texas – Authorities in the United States are preparing for the most powerful weather system to hit the United States in 11 years. Hurricane Harvey is expected to make landfall on the evening of 25 August, as a Category Three storm. So far, tens of thousands have been evacuated and 700 members of the National Guard have been mobilised. Hurricane Harvey is expected to bring flooding, heavy rainfall, and high winds to last nearly a week. Oil and gas operators have begun evacuating those on offshore platforms

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana Cycling Race
25-27 August – Formula One Weekend in Belgium
26 August – “For Free Internet” Rally to be held in Moscow
27 August – Moldova Independence Day
28 August – US Open Tennis Begins
31 August – Malaysia Independence Day
31 August – Kyrgyzstan Independence Day
31 August – Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day
01 September – Slovakia Independence Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 34 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

No Fear in Flying – Aviation Security and Travel Risks

The importance of aviation security has grown in correlation with the growth of the aviation industry. More people seek to travel more frequently for business and pleasure each year. The last year has seen some significant disruption for frequent flyers, as governments and other intergovernmental agencies have continually sought to make flying a safe means to travel. The risk of terror attack has posed a constant barrier to achieving this goal. Airports and airlines are in a constant battle of balance between providing a pleasurable experience for their travellers, whilst at the same time ensuring stringent security measures are effective and thorough without causing costly delays. With some of the biggest airports around the world having hundreds of thousands of passengers pass through their gates on a daily basis, this is no small feat. The recent anti-terror arrests in Australia are an interesting development in light of the recent lifting of the electronics ban imposed by the US and the UK. On 30 July 2017, a number of raids were conducted and four arrests made in some of Sydney’s suburbs. The action was undertaken in response to a bomb plot involving an aircraft. One of the suspected bomb plotters had planted the device in a piece of luggage and had asked his brother to take it on his flight on 15 July 2017 from Sydney to Abu Dhabi on an Etihad Airways flight. The luggage was never checked in and left the airport with the suspected bomb plotting brother, the reasons for this are unconfirmed but it is thought the luggage may have been too heavy. Australian authorities have emphasised that at no point was the luggage security-screened as it was not checked in. The group attempted to build a second explosive device, which would disperse a colourless toxic gas; however, foreign intelligence agencies had informed Australia before the plan was enacted. The Islamic State are believed to be behind the terror plot.

So What was the Electronics Ban About?

The ban came into effect in March 2017, and prohibited passengers from carrying their larger electronic devices with them onto the plane, due to fears of a terrorist plot to plant explosives in them. In February 2016, a Daallo Airlines Airbus was targeted when an explosive device (believed to be a laptop) detonated, sucking the perpetrator out of the hole in the fuselage. Fortunately, the aircraft was able to land at Mogadishu airport successfully. The 2017 ban applied to specific countries in the Middle East and their direct flights to the US and United Kingdom, although the UK did not apply the ban to as many countries as the US. The attempt to mitigate the threat of “innovative methods” of terrorists led to an inconvenience for many travellers and a direct financial impact on numerous Middle Eastern airlines. Once airports had implemented extra security measures, the ban was lifted. Abu Dhabi Airport, the airport hub which serves Etihad Airways, was the first airport to meet the requirements and have the electronics ban lifted in early July 2017.

Laptops aren’t the First Bomb Threat on a Plane

Reports on the recent terror arrests in Australia, have stated the IED (Improvised Explosive Device) was disguised as a meat mincer. There is a discussion to be had over potential innovative methods used by terror groups, such as the Islamic State, when ordinary objects are turned into lethal explosive devices. Checking a meat mincer onto a plane is a way to disguise an IED on an aircraft, although it has been reported by Australian police they device would have been picked up if it had been screened. The explosive device embarked on the Metrojet flight from Sharm-el-Sheikh to St Petersburg in October 2015, was reported to be in an aluminium can, according to ISIS who claimed the attack. International investigators of the incident agree there was most likely an explosive device planted in the cabin, although the form of it has not been confirmed. In 2010, Dubai police intercepted printers which contained explosives, and were on route to being shipped to the United States. The plot originated in Yemen and was implemented by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The concern for aviation security therefore, is that as long as the threat posed by terror groups remains, innovative methods of attack will continue to weaponise ordinary objects to avoid security detection. To mitigate this, comprehensive screening processes have become central to ensuring the safety of travellers. The 2001 shoe-bomber plot, as well as the 2009 explosive underwear attempt, are both examples of attempted terror attacks on aircraft using innovative methods to conceal explosive devices; although both attempts failed. Information-sharing between foreign intelligence agencies has also become increasingly important, as demonstrated in the recent uncovering of the plot in Australia.

Identifying a Security Threat, and Getting it Wrong

The ongoing threat of terrorism has led to an increased awareness and suspicion towards certain travellers which fit the stereotype. In August 2016, a Syrian woman was detained at Doncaster Airport in the United Kingdom under the Terrorism Act, as the book she was reading on the aircraft on Syrian art and culture, appeared suspicious to the Thomson Airways crew. An inconvenient and distressing experience for the traveller, but also a potential act of discrimination based on her ethnicity. On the other side of the spectrum, a British passenger taken hostage on an Egypt Air flight in March 2016, took a smiling picture with the hijacker who was wearing an explosive belt. Although the device was later proven to be fake, and the hijacker motivated by personal issues, the passenger’s decision to throw caution away in regard to his own safety, posed a significant threat to the remaining hostages. His desire to see the device closer up, could have proven a provocative move, and was unnecessary considering the ongoing negotiations that were being held with the hijacker.

What Can a Traveller Do About the Security Threat?

Airports and airlines adopt appropriate security measures according to the assessed threat level at the time. However, all airports and airlines still carry some level of risk. Some airlines may be targeted for who they represent, whilst some airports are vulnerable to smuggling suspicious devices. At a minimum, travellers should avoid using air carriers with poor safety and security records in general. It is also important to be aware that airport security in developing countries may not have the same stringent security standards as London Heathrow, for example. When booking, try to select an emergency exit seat on the aircraft, or one near it, for both safety and security reasons. When packing, it is important to be aware of certain items which may identify you as a target to a hijacker, such as clothing carrying company logos, company paperwork, membership cards of political or action groups, offensive reading materials, expensive jewellery and other valuable items. If possible, these items should be placed in checked luggage or left at a safe location at home or the office.

At the Airport

Travellers should always ensure they arrive with time enough to not only check-in on the flight, but also proceed through security. Security screenings can become particularly congested during peak holidays. Once checked-in, travellers should proceed directly to security and avoid waiting in lobby areas in departures or afterwards in arrivals halls. The terror attacks on Brussels Airport in March 2016, and again at Atatürk Istanbul Airport in June 2016, both targeted these areas, which are easily accessible. In the event an airport terminal is evacuated, follow the instructions of local security personnel to the area you are being directed to. If possible, stay in the centre of the group to limit exposure to potential firearms or explosives. If there is a live shooter, our Run, Hide, Tell Guide provides some helpful information on what to do. If you feel a traveller is acting suspiciously, report your suspicions to local authorities or an airline employee.

In the Air

Security terror threats towards airborne aircraft range from already planted explosive devices to hijackings. Not every hijacker is a suicide bomber and may be motivated by other political goals. In the event the hijacker is suicidal, it is recommended to join with other passengers and attempt to overpower the hijackers by any means possible. Ultimately, in order for the hijacker to gain full control of an aircraft, he has to gain entry to the flight deck. With reinforced doors and cabin cameras, it is easier for pilots to monitor and control access. Within the cabin, the initial stage of a hijacking is one of the most dangerous as hijackers seek to assert their authority through aggression or violence. Hostages in this situation are advised to follow crew instructions and avoid antagonising any hijackers throughout the hostage situation. Do not talk with fellow passengers as this may appear suspicious to hijackers, or there may be potential a passenger could provide your personal information to a hijacker in order to gain favour or release. Travellers should also be aware of the possibility for “sleepers”; accomplices to the hijackers who have not yet made their presence known on board. It is important to remain calm for the duration, alert to your surroundings, and maintain a positive mindset. Limit the amount of fluids consumed in order to avoid regular visits to the lavatory. In many cases, there have been successful negotiated releases of hostages from a plane. However, in the event that the aircraft is stormed by security forces, travellers should remain as low as possible whilst keeping their hands visible. This is another critical stage of an aircraft hijacking which may result in some injuries or fatalities.

Summary

Airports and aircraft are high value targets for terrorists. Due to their increased security measures, improved innovative methods for developing discrete explosive devices are likely to continue. This kind of planned attack does require a significant amount of preparation and coordination, making it more vulnerable to early detection, as seen in the recent Sydney arrests. However, in the meantime, flying travellers will better be able to prepare themselves if they remember:

When packing, leave behind unnecessary items or documents which may be offensive to others.
Maintain a low profile. For example: avoid wearing company logos.
Choose a seat as close to an emergency exit as possible.
Ensure you arrive in good time for your flights, in order to go through security screening.
Avoid waiting in the arrivals or departures halls, proceed directly to security screening or leave the airport as a priority.
If you are concerned and feel someone is acting suspiciously, report it to the nearest authority figure.
In a hostage situation, remain calm and do not antagonise the hostage-takers.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 33

Headlines From This Week

Terror attack in Barcelona – 14 people were killed and dozens wounded after a van intentionally drove into a crowd in the Las Ramblas tourist area of Barcelona, with Islamic State claiming responsibility for the attack. A further five people were shot dead in Cambrils, southwest of Barcelona after another car attack that injured seven. A further incident was also reported in Sant Just Desvern, on Barcelona’s outskirts. So far three people have been arrested, with citizens of 24 countries among those killed or injured.
Bolivian Government Approves Controversial Road – Bolivia’s government have approved a controversial highway to run through an area of Amazon biodiversity hotspot and home to 14,000 mostly indigenous people. The highway is planned to be 300 km long and will run through the Isiboro Secure Indigenous Territory and National Park, east of the capital La Paz. The planned road had caused widespread protests in 2011.
Sierra Leone Mudslide – More than 400 have been reported dead after a hillside collapsed in the Regent area of Sierra Leone’s capital, Freetown. The mudslide occurred after three days of torrential rains. The death toll is expected to rise as rescue attempts are hampered by poor infrastructure and further downpours. • Burkina Faso Terror Attack – 18 people were killed after gunmen attacked a Turkish restaurant in Ouagadougou. A further 22 were injured. The gunmen are believed to have been Islamic militants from the Sahel region. It seems likely that this restaurant was specifically targeted due to its popularity with foreigners.
The Monsoon in South Asia – The monsoon season in the Indian sub-continent continues to have a significant impact. At least 245 people have been killed across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Thousands more have been forced from their homes into temporary accommodation.
Charlottesville Violence – Rival protesters from the left and right clashed over the decision to remove a statue honouring a Confederate general who was a leader of the slave-owning South during the US Civil War, in Charlottesville, Virginia. One person was killed and several others injured after a far-right protester drove a car through a crowd of opposing protesters in what has been described as a domestic terror incident. President Trump’s response has been widely and globally criticised, with further clashes involving white nationalists possible across the country.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Islam Protest in Vancouver – Far-right protesters are due to descend on Vancouver’s City Hall on 19 August. The rally will begin at 1400 hrs local time and is expected to be met by counter-protestors. There are fears that this event may incite the same levels of violence seen at the Charlottesville rally in North Carolina, United States on 12 August. Travellers should avoid this area.
Angola Elections – On 23 August, Angolans will elect a new President to replace Jose Eduardo dos Santos. It is widely expected that dos Santos’s ruling Party – the MPLA – will maintain control of governance of the country. The freedom and transparency of the election has been criticised.
Boston Protests – Right wing “Boston Free Speech Rally” and a Black Lives Matter (BLM) protest are both due to occur in downtown Boston on 19 August. The BLM protest is due to begin at 1000 hrs at Reggie Lewis Athletic Center before heading towards Boston Common where the opposing protest is due to take place. Thousands are expected to attend; travellers should avoid the protest areas.
Southeast Asia Games – 11 countries will compete in the 29th Southeast Asia games between 19 and 30 August in Malaysia. Travellers can expect security measures to be enhanced for this period and certain travel delays in Kuala Lumpur during this time.

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana cycling race
19 August – Afghanistan Independence Day
22 August – CGT Union in Argentina plan protest.
22 August – Union Bank employees in India plan to strike.
23-26 August – SATA Air Açores and Air Azores cabin crew plan strike.
24 August – Ukraine Independence Day.
24-25 August – Portuguese Immigration officers plan strike.
25 August – Uruguay Independence Day.
26 August – Opposition group to protest in Moscow, Russia

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 33 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.