Pyeongchang Olympics Risk Summary

The Winter Olympics is set to begin in Pyeongchang, South Korea on 09 February. Travel to the country brings a unique set of challenges and issues to overcome. For more on the Olympics, how to prepare and, what to expect when travelling to South Korea, please take a look at our risk summary below or download this information as a PDF from the following link: Solace Global – Event Advisory – Pyeongchang Olympics Risk Summary

THE ROAD TO PYEONGCHANG…

16 Oct 2009 – Pyeongchang submits bid to host games
06 Jul 2011 – Pyeongchang selected as winner
24 Oct 2017 – Olympic Torch Relay commenced
09 Feb 2018 – Olympics Opening Ceremony
25 Feb 2018 – Olympics Closing Ceremony
09 Mar 2018 – Paralympics Opening Ceremony
18 Mar 2018 – Paralympics Closing Ceremony

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT KEY FACTS

Estimated 43,703 (Pyeongchang County, as of 2014)
Population: 219,274 (Gangneung Metropolitan Area, as of 2012)
Geographic Area: 1,464 Km² (Pyeongchang County) 1,039.99 km² (Gangneung Metropolitan Area)
Language: Korean
Religion: Non-religious/traditional beliefs, Christianity, Buddhism
Weather: Cold & temperate (Pyeongchang) Warm & temperate, heavy rainfall (Gangneung)
GMT: +9
Capital: Seoul
Currency: South Korean Won
Emergency Services: 119 (Fire & Medical) 112 (Police)

PYEONGCHANG OLYMPICS KEY FACTS

COUNTRIES: 94

A record 94 countries are sending athletes to the 2018 Games. With North and South Korea competing under one flag. The Korean women’s ice hockey team will feature athletes from both countries. 2018 has seen a thawing of interKorean relations, after high tensions throughout 2017.

ATHLETES: 2,900

More than 2,900 athletes will compete at the Games. Russia has been banned from attending but more than 160 Russians will compete under the Olympics flag. The United States will send the most athletes, with nearly 250 planned competitors.

TICKETS: 1.07MILLION

1.07 million tickets for the Games will be on sale. So far, about 75% have been sold. The figure is lower than in comparison with Sochi 2014. Security is the most prominent factor contributing to a lack of sales, though the Russian doping scandal and a lack of local interest have also been contributing factors.

SECURITY: 5,000

North Korean unpredictability remains the most obvious security challenge. 5,000 members of the military will be deployed for the Games. There are also plans for 15,000 volunteers to support the running of the Games.

OLYMPIC VENUES: 13

The events for the Games will be in Gangwon Province. Specifically in the Pyeongchang Mountain Cluster (snow events), Jeongseon (alpine speed events), and Gangneung (ice events).

LOCAL ETIQUETTE

Business dress is strictly formal; men generally wear dark suits, and women, typically modest dresses. Although this may later be relaxed, adherence to this code is advisable for early meetings. Dressing well is considered a sign of respect.
It is customary to greet people with a bow from the waist. A handshake may also be a substitute. More established acquaintances typically abbreviate the bow to a nod of the head.
When taking something from an older or senior person always use two hands; if you must use one hand, you should support your right arm with your left hand. This extends to the exchange of business cards. Another convention is to support your right arm with your left hand when shaking hands with somebody older or more senior. When talking to someone older, direct eye contact should generally be avoided.
Korean society places great emphasis on “face”. Embarrassing situations are to be avoided, or downplayed, as much as possible. This also makes it unusual to receive an apology if someone bumps into you.
Buddhist temples often display Swastikas. It originates as a local religious or spiritual symbol and has no connection to the Third Reich or Nazism.
Initial conversations are likely to cover a great deal of breadth rapidly; this may include questions about family, career, age, and education. This is not seen as intrusive, however brief answers are acceptable if you do not wish to divulge excessive detail.
Tipping is not expected in South Korea (but is welcomed), however a service charge of around 10% may be charged (compulsory) by hotels.
Bargaining is acceptable at open markets, but not so welcomed in shops and stores.
At some restaurants, you are required to take off your shoes before entering the dining area (usually a wooden floored area). If going to the bathroom, you should use sandals which are usually provided.
If you are an important guest, it can be considered rude to pour your own drink, and this must be poured for you by the person sitting next to you. If you are not an important guest, you should pour another’s drink before pouring your own.
Do not raise bowls to your mouth when eating. Leave the table to blow your nose and do not make any loud noises at the table.
The number four is considered unlucky (tetraphobia) due to its similarity to the Chinese character for death (common in East Asian nations). Even giving gifts in multiples of four is unadvisable. Contrarily, the number seven is considered lucky.
Kissing in public is discouraged, especially around older Koreans, as it is considered highly immodest.
Physical contact can be considered a personal violation, this includes back slapping and patting. Unless you have a very close relationship with someone, it is advisable not to touch them.

SCAMS

Fake Hotel Scams: South Korea has the world fastest internet connections and the greatest internet penetration. Accordingly, a proportional amount of criminal activity and scams are based online. Travellers frequently are targeted by false websites offering modern hotels at low prices. Upon arrival, the hotel either does not exist, or is poorly maintained or an unregistered bedsit. Travellers are advised to undertake proper due diligence on any accommodation or book through a reputable agency.
Begging: Foreigners in South Korea can be specifically targeted by beggars who may solicit donations forcefully or apply pressure through unsolicited physical contact. Avoid giving any indication of where your wallet or cash is stored in case they are seeking to distract you for a pickpocket.
The ‘Taxis Parked in Front of Your Hotel’ Scam: In front of many four & five-star hotel there are taxis waiting all day. Despite appearances, these taxis are not associated with the hotel. These drivers may not switch on their meters when picking up passengers and instead insist on an excessive charge whilst already in motion. Travellers should be aware of taxis which wait outside of hotels. If you need a taxi, ask your hotel to order one for you from a reputable company and ensure they meter your journey. If the vehicle has a meter, it should be used, if not, agree the price before setting off.
The ‘Tour guide’ Scam: A traveller will be approached by a friendly local who speaks good English and has some anecdotes about the traveller’s country of birth. They offer to take the tourist on a tour for a tiny price. For the whole excursion, they seem genuine and kind, however will make efforts to steer travellers towards businesses owned by relatives or friends, who will then pressure the travellers to purchase merchandise at heavily elevated prices. Travellers should be cautious of strangers with intentions too good to be true; invariably they are. If you wish to take a sightseeing tour, prearrange through a reputable agent.
Overcharging: Travellers should be aware that foreigners can be overcharged while shopping. This can be intentional or unintentional (inability to read or understand labels). In restaurants, adhere to dishes on the menu and check the bill prior to payment.
Racism: Travellers to, and foreign residents in, South Korea have noted a prevalence of racism within the country. Travellers should note that, unlike many countries in the west, South Korea is ethnically homogenous, with more than 99 percent of inhabitants having Korean ethnicity. The judiciary in South Korea have been accused of being heavily biased against foreigners. If there is a dispute with a local, the law will almost always rule in favour of the local against the foreigner. Even if physically assaulted by a local, it is possible that retaliation will cause significant legal problems. For road traffic accidents or incidents of dispute, it is important that a Korean speaker or Korean local is contacted, in order to get both sides of the story.

SECURITY SUMMARY

South Korea, or the Republic of Korea (ROK), holds a geographically and politically important position in the region. The country has excellent relations with the United States, China, and increasingly, with Japan. The ROK’s most substantial threat comes from the aggressive North Korea, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The ROK’s alliances are mainly used to help manage the continued threat from the DPRK. ROK-DPRK relations have improved somewhat since the beginning of the year, with both Koreas to march under one flag at the opening ceremony.

Both sides of the demilitarised zone maintain some degree of communication. Indeed, President Moon, elected in 2017, has sought to offer an olive branch to South Korea’s northern neighbour, returning to the ‘Sunshine Policy’ (to a large extent) of the post-millennium leadership in Seoul.

Throughout 2017, Pyongyang has tested a series of missiles including those which passed over Japan. More concerningly, in early September 2017, the DPRK conducted its most powerful nuclear test to date, causing a 6.3- magnitude earthquake. While low-level border skirmishes have taken place historically, especially over the disputed Yeonpyeong Islands, the chances for an imminent return to full-blown conflict before or during the Olympics remain unlikely. This is due to the present relationships. The US maintains a force of nearly 30,000 personnel in the ROK to assist in the country’s defence. Also, North Korea maintains a largely friendly relationship with China and Russia which are both sending athletes to compete in the Games (the latter under a neutral flag). Moreover, North Korea athletes, including two figure skaters, are due to compete at the Games.

These facts ensure that the risk of a DPRK missile attack during the Games is LOW.

GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE

Although South Korea can be considered very safe (especially in terms of crime and terrorist threat), it is advisable to remain aware of your surroundings to at least the same degree as you would in any other developed country.

Take extra care of passports, credit cards and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone or at night, and make sure to use a legitimate means of transport such as public transport or metered taxis.

Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves.

When air pollution is high, follow local advice and stay hydrated, indoors, with the windows closed when possible.

South Korean security forces often hold Civil Emergency Exercises in major cities, usually involving evacuation to a safe area such as a metro station. Although you do not have to participate as a foreign national, it is best to follow the instruction of the authorities when the sirens sound indicating an exercise. Be aware that the judiciary has been accused of being biased against foreigners and will nearly always side with locals in any disputes.

There are heavy penalties for drug offences, even for personal use, and foreign nationals can be detained purely on the basis of drug tests.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 05

Headlines From This Week

A Further Terror Attack in Kabul – A suicide bombing in Kabul killed at least 95 people on 27 January. More than 150 others were wounded as Taliban attackers drove an ambulance laden with explosives past a police checkpoint in one of the most secure areas of the Afghan capital. This comes a week after the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul was also attacked by Taliban gunmen.

Dozens Feared Drowned off Libyan Coast – 90 migrants are feared dead after their boat capsized off the Libyan coast. Three survivors suggested that those who drowned were predominantly Pakistani. At least ten bodies have washed ashore in Libya at the time of writing. Overall this year, it has been reported that there have been 6,624 arrivals of migrants by sea to Europe, up from 5,983 in the same period of 2017.

Mass Unrest Across Russia – Protests were recorded in at least 100 locations across Russia on 28 January as citizens, led by anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, called for a boycott of elections in March 2018. Navalny was one of more than 250 protestors who were detained by police, but he was subsequently released.

Ex-Leader of Maldives to Contest Elections – Former President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, is to return to the country from exile to contest elections. This comes after the Supreme Court quashed his 2015 terrorism charges as being ‘politically motivated’. The Supreme Court’s decision saw opposition supporters take to the streets in celebration; two were arrested after clashes with police. The country became a democracy in 2008 but freedoms have been restricted since President Yameen took power in 2013. Yameen’s response is unclear at this time, though Maldives police have vowed to adhere to the ruling.

State of Emergency Declared in Ecuador – The Ecuadoran government declared a state of emergency in the cities of San Lorenzo and Eloy Alfaro following an improvised explosive device attack against a local police headquarters. There were no fatalities, but 14 officers were wounded, and the building was rendered unusable. Armed groups connected to drug cartels are believed to be responsible for the attack.

Nairobi Opposition Protests – Following a mock inauguration ceremony on 30 January for Raila Odinga, the primary opposition presidential candidate, his supporters have launched widespread protests in predominantly opposition-supporting areas of Kenya, Nairobi especially. A number of prominent opposition leaders have also been arrested by security forces in relation to the event, and three television networks have been taken off the air by the government for attempting to televise the inauguration, further aggravating protestors.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Winter Olympics to Begin – The 2018 Winter Olympics are scheduled to start in Pyeongchang, South Korea, on 09 February. While the presence of North Korea hangs over proceedings, it has athletes competing at the Games, making aggressive moves by Pyongyang unlikely. Travel disruption should be expected across South Korea.

Referendum in Ecuador – On 04 February, Ecuador will go to the polls to vote on a series of constitutional amendments, one of which reinstates term limits. This would make it impossible for the populist former President Rafael Correa to return to power. Correa has led the campaign against the proposed amendments which have been promoted by President Moreno, thought by many to be Correa’s handpicked successor. It was also believed Moreno would step aside when his term ended to allow Correa to return to power. Unrest is possible during the vote period.

Carnival – Carnival is celebrated across the world and marks a final major party before the Christian festival of Lent. Carnival is especially popular in the Americas. Crime rates spike in the lead up to, and during, Carnival festivities, particularly across Central and South America. The largest celebrations occur in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where the 2018 Carnival begins on 09 February and ends on 14 February, the day Lent begins.

Significant Dates & Events

03 February – Public transport strikes planned from Helsinki airport
03 February – Anti-corruption protests scheduled in Tel Aviv
04 February – American football Super Bowl in Minneapolis
04 February – Costa Rican legislative and presidential elections
04 February – Planned protests against Macedonia’s naming in Athens
04 February – Anniversary of 1992 failed coup by Hugo Chávez (unrest a potential in Venezuela)
05 February – Algerian paramedics to strike
05 February – Public hospital workers strike across Haiti
06-11 February – Major cycling event in Dubai
09 February – Portuguese airline crew scheduled to start industrial action

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 05 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 05 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 04 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

27 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding at Lagos Anchorage. Suspicious movement spotted on anchored vessel’s forecastle, and one person spotted hiding amongst the mooring winches. Crew were mustered and Navy patrol boat notified. No robbers found, and no stores reported missing. 24 Jan 18: Armed Guards Repelled Attack South of Brass. Embarked naval guards exchanged fire with attackers during an attempted attack against an underway tanker at 03°30’0 N 06°20’0 E. Crew and vessel reported safe. 24 Jan 18: Vessel Underway Attacked South of Brass. A bulk carrier underway at 03°39’0 N 06°37’2 E was approached by two speedboats containing up to three person each. Occupants of the speedboats opened fire on the carrier, which increased speed and undertook evasive action. Attackers moved away. Vessel and crew reported safe. 23 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding at Conakry Port Terminal. Two people were spotted attempting to climb the vessel’s stern line whilst along side at Conakry Port Terminal. Upon detection both swam away.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

24 Jan 18: Revised Security Guidance Issued. BIMCO, ICS, and Intertanko issued additional security guidance designed to complement BMP4 and mitigate against the additional threats posed by overspill from the Yemeni civil war.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

26 Jan 18: Pirate Group Active near Sabah. Local authorities reported that vessels known to belong to an established kidnap and piracy gang have been spotted in the Sulu Sea in vicinity of Sabah. Vessels are advised to maintain a strict anti-piracy watch and remain in compliance with BMP4. 20 Jan 18: Anchored vessel boarded in Samarinda Anchorage. Two robbers boarded a vessel at anchor in Samarinda anchorage undetected, and escaped with ship’s properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 04 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 04 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04

Headlines From This Week

World Economic Forum – The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, ends on 26 January. The event saw substantially less activist activity than was anticipated, with approximately 2,000 protesters demonstrating in Zurich. Approximately 20 protesters managed to breach the security cordon in the town of Davos itself, but they were dispersed peacefully by police.
Turkish Incursion into Syria – Turkish forces, supported by militants from the Free Syrian Army launched an operation to clear Kurdish militia groups from the northern Syrian area of Afrin. The Turkish military objectives appear to remain limited, the assault was likely intended to enhance Turkey’s negotiating position with the US and other coalition partners engaged in the region against Islamic State.
Major attacks in Jalalabad and Kabul – The Afghan branches of both the Taliban and Islamic State launched major attacks in Afghanistan. The Taliban conducted an explosives and small arms attack on the Kabul Intercontinental hotel on 20 January, which had recently handed its security measures to a private company. 42 people were killed, 17 of which were foreign nationals. The Islamic State attacked the Save the Children charity’s offices in Jalalabad on 24 January, resulting in two fatalities and leaving 12 wounded.
US Government Shutdown – The US Government experienced a three-day shut down between 20 and 22 January. This resulted in a cessation of all “non-essential” services, with government employees responsible for the provision of these services asked to stay home without pay. A political compromise in the Senate led to a short-term funding bill to end the shutdown, but a further shutdown is likely in February.
IED Attack in Benghazi – Two car bombs were detonated in a residential area of Benghazi on 23 January, the second blast was timed to target those who gathered to help victims of the first blast. A total of 33 people were killed, and 47 wounded. It is believed that the attack was carried out by a cell of Islamic State insurgents who remain in the city despite the organisation’s military defeat.
Tsunami Warnings Across the West Coast of North America – An earthquake of approximately magnitude 8.2 struck south of Kodiak Island in Alaska, resulting in the issuing of tsunami warnings throughout the eastern pacific, particularly the US and Canada’s western seaboards. No damage was reported as a result of the quake due to the distance from major inhabited areas; waves measuring approximately 0.3m were reported, however, but had no impact as they occurred well offshore.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Australian Tennis Open – Australia is scheduled to hold its 2018 tennis finals on 27 – 28 January. Australia has suffered occasional, lone wolf, terror attacks in recent years, including an as-yet unclassified attack on a police officer on 26 January 2018. Travellers should expect high levels of security around the venue in Melbourne.
Thaipusam Festival – The 2018 Thaipusam festival will be held in Malaysia on 31 January. Additional security measures should be expected around Hindu temple locations, and service provision is likely to be reduced due to business closures related to the holiday.
Cost of Living Protests in Khartoum – The opposition-planned protests due to be held in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, on 31 January are likely to result in significant disruption and possible violence. Sudanese security forces responded with force to small-scale, spontaneous, demonstrations over the month of January, and are likely to respond in a similar manner to more widespread incidents.

Significant Dates & Events

27 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
27 January – Opposition protests scheduled in Tirana, Albania
27 January – Anti-Trump marches planned in Washington DC
27-28 January – Extensive maintenance to disrupt Mumbai’s rail network
28 January – Finnish presidential elections
28 January – Cyprus presidential elections
28 January – Opposition protests scheduled in major cities throughout Russia
29 January – Italian high-speed rail workers to strike
30 January – Opposition and anti-corruption protests planned in Lima.
31 January – Anti-government protests in Khartoum, Sudan, due to increasing food costs
01 February – Air Do cancelled 26 flights from Japan due to a pilot shortage

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 043 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03

Headlines From This Week

Winter Storms in Europe – At least nine people were killed after Storm Friederike hit western Europe. Hurricane level winds shut down transportation systems in parts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Adverse weather conditions were reported from the United Kingdom to as far away as Romania.
Assassination in Kosovo – Prominent Kosovo Serb Politician, Oliver Ivanović, was assassinated outside of his party’s headquarters on 16 January. This murder came on the same day that Belgrade and Pristina began talks on normalising ties after a break of more than a year. Ivanović was an opponent of the Belgrade-backed Serb party in Kosovo. His death may further complicate regional relations.
Significant Earthquake off Peru Coast – On 14 January 2018, a magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Peru. At least two people have been reported dead, with dozens more left injured or homeless with a state of emergency declared in the affected zones. Many have been left without power and roads have been damaged; international travel remains uninterrupted.
Volcanic Activity in Southeast Asia – Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia has shown continued activity, spewing volcanic ash 2,000 metres into the air on 15 January but has since settled. Activity at Mayon Volcano, Philippines has forced 38,000 people from their homes. Thousands have been evacuated from islands surrounding Kadovar, Papua New Guinea, as scientists suggest that a volcanic eruption could be imminent.
Twin Suicide Bombings in Maiduguri – A double suicide bombing at a market in the northern Nigerian city of Maiduguri killed at least 12 and injured 48 others on 17 January. One attacker was male and the other female. Boko Haram are the most likely culprits of this attack; the Islamic insurgency group has killed more than 20,000 people in its nine-year insurgency.
Clashes at Tripoli Airport – At least 20 people were killed after clashes at Tripoli Mitiga Airport, with another 63 injured. Fighting started on 15 January. The Special Deterrent Force, a militia which controls the airport, clashed with a rival militia led by local strongman Bashir al-Baqara; both militias are ostensibly allied with the UN-backed government. Reports suggest that al-Baqara was fighting to release his men held at a nearby prison. All flights were diverted to Misrata Airport, though operations have reportedly resumed at Mitiga.
Tensions in the Nile Region – Tensions continue to rise in the Nile region as Sudan sent more troops to its border with Eritrea, partly in reaction to the reported presence of Egyptian troops in Eritrea. Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia on one side, and Egypt and Eritrea on the other, have deteriorated recently, as all sides seek to maintain, or increase, control over precious natural resources.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Kabila Rally in the DRC – Catholics in the Democratic Republic of Congo called for a fresh rally against the continued premiership of President Kabila for 21 January. New Year’s Eve protests against Kabila’s rule led to the deaths of at least six people. Significant and violent unrest should be expected in Kinshasa especially.
‘Women’s March’ Rallies – The 2018 Women’s March, planned as a follow up to the 2017 march, is due to take place on 20-21 January 2017. The primary event will take place on 21 January 2018 in Las Vegas, United States, with other significant marches occurring in New York City and Washington DC. Marches of different sizes have been confirmed in at least 31 different countries/territories, including dozens of marches across the United States.
World Economic Forum – The annual World Economic Forum conference is due to take place in Davos, Switzerland between 23-26 January 2018. Many heads of states due to attend, including President Trump. Enhanced security measures and the unrest should be expected in the lead up to, and during, the event.

Significant Dates & Events

20 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
21 January – Hong Kong Marathon
22 January – Inauguration of George Weah as Liberia’s new president
24 January – Unification Day, Romania
25-26 January – India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit, New Delhi, India
25-27 January – Opposition rallies planned in Honduras as the new president is sworn in
25-28 January – Winter X Games take place in Aspen, Colorado
25 January – Revolution Day, Egypt
26 January – Australia Day, Australia
26 January – Republic Day, India
26 January – Second Round of Czech presidential elections
26 January – National Resistance Movement (NRM) Liberation Day, Uganda

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 03 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02

Headlines From This Week

California Mudslide – At least 17 people were killed by mudslides on 09 January in Santa Barbara County, California. On 12 January, the search for survivors entered a fourth day; the number of missing could be as high as 43 according to local officials. A mandatory evacuation zone has been put in place.
Protests Against Ex-President’s Pardon – Protests have continued this week in Peru after the decision to pardon ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was convicted of human rights’ abuses and corruption. Protestors have also called for the resignation of incumbent President Kuczynski who granted the pardon; Kuczynski has been accused of granting the pardon in return for support against an impeachment vote.
Deadly Protests in Tunisia – Protests against the government’s 2018 budget bill have turned violent this week. The government has reported that 21 people have died but some rights groups suggest that the real number could be more than double this. Security forces have so far reported 778 arrests. Further protests are expected, partly in response to the government’s reaction to the protests.
ELN-Government Talks Breakdown – This week marked the end of negotiations between the guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the government. The move comes after the rebel group conducted a series of attacks immediately after the ceasefire between the two entities expired on 10 January.
‘Bread Protests’ in Sudan – Reports suggest that at least three people have been killed in ‘bread protests’ in Sudan. Protests occurred after the government decided to cut subsidies, which led to price rises. Protests have been ongoing since 07 January and look set to continue.
East China Sea Maritime Incident – An Iranian-owned oil vessel has been ablaze since 06 January after it collided with another vessel in the East China Sea. It has since drifted into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The vessel was en route to South Korea with almost one million barrels of oil aboard. One body, believed to have been one of the vessel’s crew has been recovered; the other 32 sailors remain missing.
Iran Sanctions – President Trump looks set to renew the Iran nuclear deal according to officials in Washington DC. However, his administration is expected to add economic sanctions on Iranian businesses and individuals for support of terrorist groups across the Middle East and other misconduct. The United States’ European partners had been keen to see the deal continue, causing some cross-Atlantic friction since President Trump took office.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pope Francis to Visit South America – Heightened security and travel disruptions are expected during Peru’s papal visit between 18 and 21 January. Pope Francis is due to visit Lima, Puerto Maldonado, and Trujillo. Before Peru, Francis is set to visit Chile, with Santiago, Temuco, and Iquique the primary locations of his visit.
Australian Tennis Open Begins – The first of four ‘Grand Slams’, the Australian tennis open is due to take place between 15 and 28 January. The event takes place in Melbourne Park, Melbourne. Enhanced security measures and travel delays should be expected in the area. Protests are also possible given that one stadium which is hosting matches is named after Margaret Court who has been criticised for having homophobic views.
2018 Women’s March – An anniversary event for the 2017 Women’s march is set to take place on 20 January. The primary event is set to take place in Las Vegas in the United States, with sister marches occurring in Europe, South America, Asia, and Australasia. While disruption is likely, protests are not expected to turn violent.

Significant Dates & Events

13 January – Separatist groups plan strikes in Jammu and Kashmir
13 January – Airport workers are to rally in Nadi, Fiji
14 January – Hindu festival of Makar Sankranti
14 January – Christian Orthodox New Year
14 January – Revolution and Youth Day, Tunisia
14 January – Day of Defenders of the Motherland, Uzbekistan
14 January – Tamil Thai Pongal Day, Sri Lanka
15 January – Martin Luther King Day in the United States
15 January – John Chilembwe Day, Malawi
16-17 January – Heroes’ Day in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 02 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01

Headlines From The Week

Positive Moves on the Korean Peninsula – In a surprising move, President Kim stated his intention to consider opening dialogue with South Korea to cover North Korea’s involvement in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics which begin in February 2018. North Korea’s involvement in the Games is likely to decrease the possibility of military tests or an attack during the event. Planned US-South Korea military drills which were due to take place during the Games have been postponed; Pyongyang views these annual drills as provocation.
Unrest in the DRC – An estimated 12 people were killed in renewed protests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Dozens more were injured and more than 120 arrested in widespread anti-government protests, as demonstrators called on President Kabila to step down and respect a 2016 political agreement in which he had pledged to allow for new elections before the end of that year.
Storm Grayson Strikes the USA – Storm Grayson has caused hazardous travel conditions along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The storm has brought strong winds, heavy snowfall, and freezing conditions. At least 12 deaths have been attributed to the cold, more than 2,700 flights have been cancelled, and tens of thousands have been left without power. States of emergency have been issued in certain locations.
Iranian Protests Continue – Violent protests have continued throughout Iran, with unrest reported in more than 70 cities. More than 20 people have said to have been killed, though security forces have been relatively calm in their response, compared to previous cases of unrest, refraining from widespread aggression.
Brazil Prison Break – At least 77 inmates escaped from a jail in the central state of Goias in Brazil on 01 January. The breakout occurred after a riot in the jail between two rival criminal gangs; nine prisoners were killed and 14 injured. Brazil’s jails are notoriously overcrowded with violence an endemic issue.
Kabul Terror Attack – At least 20 people were killed and 30 more were killed in a terror attack in the Afghan capital of Kabul on 04 January. Authorities have reported that a suicide bomber targeted police officers who were handling a protest. The Afghan affiliate of Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks.
US Security Aid to Pakistan Cut – The US government announced plans to cut almost all of its security aid to Pakistan, claiming that it has failed to deal with terror groups operating within its borders, despite Pakistan being a key regional ally. The move has been praised by India and Afghanistan; though China, which has invested heavily in Pakistan, has come to its defence.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Orthodox Christmas and the Epiphany – Orthodox Christians are to celebrate their Christmas on the 06-07 January. This may cause some disruptions in Orthodox countries, notably in Eastern Europe. Other Christians around the world also celebrate the Epiphany religious holiday on the same dates, this is likely to cause limited disruption.
North-South Korea Talks – The first of high-level talks between Pyongyang and Seoul since December 2015 are set to take place at the ‘truce village’ of Panmunjom on 09 January. These talks, proposed by Seoul after President Kim’s new year message, are set to cover the potential for North Korea’s involvement in the upcoming Winter Olympics, to be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea in February. The participation of North Korea is set to improve the security of the Games. It is also hoped that other issues can be discussed during this meeting. It is unclear, at present, why President Kim offered this olive branch in his New Year’s Day message.

Significant Dates & Events

06 January – Pro-Kurdish march to take place in Paris.
06 January – Anti-Corruption march to take place in Tel Aviv.
07 January – Northern Cyprus elections.
07 January – Victory over Genocide Day (Cambodia).
08,10,12 January – South Western Railway (UK) walkouts.
09 January – Martyrs Day (Panama).
11 January – Proclamation of Independence Day.
11 January – Air France Pilots threaten walkout.
12 January – Zanzibar Revolution Day
12-13 January – Czech Republic Presidential Elections.
12-15 January – Hungarian Civil Service plan to strike.
12 January – Norway’s FlyViking airline to cease operations.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 01 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

January 2018 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – January 2018 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The January 2018 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52

Headlines From This Week

Coptic Church Attacked in Egypt – Gunmen opened fire on a Coptic church in Helwan, south of Cairo on 29 December. Preliminary reporting suggested that ten worshippers were killed before police shot and killed the attackers.
Explosion in Saint Petersburg – An explosive device was detonated in a Perekrestok supermarket in central Saint Petersburg on 27 December. At least 13 people were wounded in the explosion which the Russian authorities are treating as a terrorist incident. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Liberian Election Results Announced – George Weah was announced as the winner of the Liberian presidential election following a delayed and protracted vote-counting process. Provided his inauguration in January occurs as planned, it will mark Liberia’s first democratic and peaceful transfer of power.
41 Killed in Kabul Suicide Bombing – The Islamic State’s Afghan off-shoot claimed responsibility for a suicide attack at a Shi’ite event in western Kabul. The attack resulted in at least 41 killed, and over 80 wounded, the majority of which were civilians. Two other explosions followed the attack in an apparent effort to target emergency responders and those fleeing the first blast.
Venezuelan Diplomatic Crisis – The Venezuelan ambassador to Brazil was declared persona non-grata by Brazil following Venezuela’s expulsion of Brazil’s ambassador over the Christmas weekend. The Canadian ambassador was also expelled from Venezuela due to Canada’s imposition of sanctions. Canada is likely to reciprocate and expel the Venezuelan mission.
Iran Protests – Several hundred protesters demonstrated in Mashhad against high prices and the government’s foreign policies. At least 52 people were detained by police, who deployed teargas and water cannons against the crowds. Clerical officials have called for harsh treatment of those arrested.
South Korea Seized an Alleged North Korean Smuggling Vessel – The South Korean authorities seized a Hong Kong flagged tanker which had illegally conducted ship-to-ship transfers of oil to North Korean tankers in defiance of international sanctions. The vessel’s owner remains unclear, however senior members of the United States’ administration have accused China of assisting North Korea in circumventing the sanctions.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Gregorian New Year – New Year’s celebrations are planned across the world for 31 December to 01 January. Many nations have national holidays over these dates and travellers should expect reduced provision of services across most industries, in addition to disruption due to festive events. Travellers should remain aware that New Year’s celebrations have previously been targeted by terror groups seeking mass casualties, as well as criminal groups focused on robbery or sexual assaults. Major cities, including London, New York, Istanbul, and Berlin have implemented substantially heightened security measures.
Continued Protests in Lima – Civil unrest in Peru’s capital, Lima, is highly likely to continue following the pardoning of a former president who was jailed for corrupt practices whilst in office. The current president, Pedro Kuczynski, recently avoided impeachment due to corruption charges. His use of the pardon in this instance reignited substantial public anger.

Significant Dates & Events

31 December – New Year’s Eve
31 December – Workers to stage 24 hour strike on London’s Docklands Light Railway and Southwest Rail
01 January – New Year’s Day
01 January – Cuba celebrates Liberation Day
01 January – Haiti celebrates Independence Day
01 January – Sudan celebrates Independence Day
04 January – Railway staff to strike in Eindhoven.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 52 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51

Headlines From This Week

Ramming Incident in Melbourne – 19 people were injured after a car driver deliberately drove into pedestrians on a busy street in Melbourne, Australia on 21 December. Police have said the driver, who has been arrested, had a history of mental illness and drug abuse but no known extremist links.
Houthi Rocket Shot Down over Riyadh – Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a rocket at the Saudi Arabian king’s residence in the capital Riyadh on 19 December. The rocket was intercepted by the Saudi air force south of the capital. This marks the third such rocket attack by the Houthis on Riyadh in the last month and increases tensions in the region; Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supplying the Houthis with sophisticated weaponry.
Regional Elections in Catalonia – A snap election for the regional parliament in Catalonia was held on 21 December. Despite pro-independence parties gaining a slim, and reduced, majority in the assembly, a prounion party gained the largest share of the vote. It is unclear who will be tasked with forming a government.
UN Vote on US’ Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed a resolution which called on the USA to withdraw its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. 128 states, include the four permanent members of the UN Security Council besides the US, voted to approve the non-binding resolution, with 35 abstaining, and nine (including the US, Israel, and a host of smaller countries) voting against. The US Ambassador to the UN, warned that “the United States will remember this day.”
Clashes Continue in Anglophone Cameroon – This week saw continued clashes in the English-speaking region of Cameroon. Armed separatists killed four soldiers after attacking a military installation in Kembong and reports emerged of villages being set ablaze. 30,000 refugees have fled to Nigeria from the region.
Two Tropical Storms Strike Southeast Asia – Over the last week, Tropical Storms Kai-Tak and Tembin have made landfall on the Philippines and impacted other countries in the region. Dozens have been left dead by landslides and flooding. Kai-Tak’s path went across the Visayas whereas Tembin’s route crossed Mindanao in Philippines south. A state of emergency was declared in the wake of Tropical Storm Kai-Tak.
Peru President Survives Impeachment Vote – Congress in Peru has voted not to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski over alleged corruption. The opposition wanted to impeach him for allegedly receiving illegal payments from Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht; other political leaders in the region have been brought down by the ongoing scandal.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Liberia Presidential Election – After a delay of more than a month due to a legal challenge, the runoff vote for the presidency of Liberia is due to occur on 26 December. The contest pits George Weah, a retired football player and junior senator, against Joseph Boakai, the incumbent vice president. Weah garnered more votes in the first round, having a 10 per cent advantage over Boakai.
Further Anti-Corruption Protests in Israel – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains under pressure to resign over corruption allegations. Protestors are due to continue their demonstrations with a rally outside Tel Aviv’s Independence Hall on 23 December at 2000 hours local time, and further gatherings in Paris and Zion Squares of Jerusalem from 1700 and 1800 hours respectively.
Anti-Corruption Protests in Romania – Anti-corruption activists are to rally in various cities of Romania on 23 December. Rallies are due to occur between 1400 and 1600 hours local time, with the largest protest due to begin in Bucharest’s Victory Square. Protestors are opposing judicial reforms proposed in Romania.

Significant Dates & Events

23 December – Sindh sugar cane workers to protest
23 December – Anti-US protests outside US Embassy in Prague. Czech Republic
23-24 December – UK CrossCountry Rail staff to strike
25 December – Christmas Day
26 December – Boxing Day
26 December – Macedonian railway workers to strike
27 December – Greater Anglia staff to strike in the UK

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 51 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 50

Headlines From This Week

Failed Terror Attack in New York – Five people were injured after an individual detonated a pipe bomb below the Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York City on 11 December. The attacker, a Bangladeshi immigrant who had reportedly entered the US on an immigrant visa, pledged allegiance to Islamic State and claimed the attack in response to Israeli actions in Gaza. The two explosive devices on his person did not explode as had been intended.
Terror Attack in Mogadishu – At least 18 police officers were killed and 15 injured after an Al Shabab suicide bomber blew himself up inside Somalia’s main police academy in Mogadishu, on 14 December. The attacker reportedly disguised himself as a police officer to gain entry to the academy. This attack comes just two months after an Al Shabab bombing killed more than 500 people and levelled buildings in the Somali capital.
Deadly Airstrike on Houthi Prison – At least 30 prisoners were killed after Saudi coalition airstrikes on the city of Sanaa, which is controlled by the rebel Houthi forces. Local media reported that dozens were injured in seven raids targeting facilities controlled by the Houthis. The prison attacked by Saudi-led airstrikes housed 180 prisoners at that time.
Martial Law Extended in Mindanao – On 13 December, the Philippines Senate and House of Representatives voted in favour of approving a request by President Duterte to extend martial law in Mindanao until the end of December 2018. Martial law was initially implemented in May 2017 as a measure to control the rise of Islamic militants in the area. The move has been criticised by rights groups, including Amnesty International, who claim that human rights abuses have flourished in the area under the shadow of martial law.
Russia Announces Withdrawal from Syria – President Putin announced a “significant” withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Despite initial suggestions by the US that Moscow would find itself “stuck in a quagmire”, it seems to have been successful in its intervention in the Syrian Civil War, namely through the maintenance of ally Bashar al-Assad as President. Russia will keep two military bases in north-western Syria.
Peruvian President Resists Pressure to Resign – Peru’s president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is under serious pressure to resign due to the ongoing corruption allegations involving Brazilian construction firm, Odebrecht. Kuczynski was allegedly paid US$5 million in advisory fees while in a previous government role. The Odebrecht corruption scandal has impacted many political leaders across Central and South America. Indeed, the company was fined a record US$3.5 billion by the US in 2016 for bribing officials; ‘advisory fees’ was one such method used by Odebrecht to bribe public officials.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ANC National Conference – South Africa’s ruling African National Conference (ANC) are set to elect a new leader at their national conference in Johannesburg between 16 and 20 December. While Jacob Zuma will remain as president, the new ANC leader will spearhead the election campaign in 2019. Corruption allegations have blighted Zuma’s leadership; the new leader will face the challenge of uniting a party with deep divisions. The two favourite candidates are Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Christmas Transport Strikes in Europe – Transport workers across Europe are due to participate in various strikes next week. This includes security staff at Madrid Barajas Airport (from 22 December), Iberia Staff at Barcelona’s El Prat Airport (from 21st December), and baggage handlers at Paris’s Orly Airport (from 22 December). Travellers should contact their operators to understand if or how they may be impacted by these strikes.
‘Million March’ against US in Karachi – The Jamaat-e-Islami party have announced their intention to march on 17 December against the US’ recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The march is set to occur in Karachi and is likely to cause extensive travel delays. This is just one of a host of anti-US protests to have been organised in response to the United States’ new Israeli policy.

Significant Dates & Events

16 December – Bahrain National Day
16 December – Kazakhstan Independence Day
17 December – Bhutan National Day
17 December – Icelandic air Engineers threaten strike
17 December – Major infrastructure work begins on Singapore’s MRT
18 December – Niger Republic Day
18 December – Qatar National Day
20 December – Irish Ryanair pilots to srike
20 December – Macau Special Administrative Region Establishment Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 50 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 50 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 49 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Dec 17: Armed Pirates Attempted to Board a Merchant Vessel near Bonny Island, Nigeria. The vessel was underway at position 03°31N, 07°70E, 53nm south of Bonny Island. A small vessel with eight armed persons came alongside the merchant vessel and attempted to board. Vessel and crew safe. 07 Dec 17: Suspicious Approach by Two Skiffs Reported by Merchant Vessel. A merchant vessel underway at 02°32N 00°01E, 112nm south of Bonny Island, was approached by two skiffs which came to within 300m of the vessel before steering away. 08 Dec 17: Cargo Vessel Boarded near Fairway Buoy, Nigeria. Twelve armed pirates boarded a cargo vessel at 04°11N 07°00E, 16nm from Fairway Buoy. All crew withdrew to the citadel after issuing a distress call. The Nigerian Navy boarded the vessel to find the pirates had escaped and all crew were safe. The vessel had previously been attacked, and the master kidnapped, on 01 December.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

07 Dec 17: Vessel Fired Upon South West of Hodeidah, Yemen. A vessel underway at 14°32N, 42°47E, 20nm southwest of Hodeidah, was approached by two skiffs carrying armed persons, who opened fire upon the vessel. Vessel evaded attack and escaped with all crew safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Dec 17: Anchored Container Ship Robbed in Manila, Philippines. Robbers gained access to the vessel via the anchor chain and stole lift rafts and immersion suits, before escaping undetected. 05 Dec 17: Barge Boarded by Robbers in Kutubdia, Bangladesh: A barge under tow was boarded at 21°52N, 91°45E, west of Kutubida Island. Robbers escaped with property, the barge and tug’s crew were unharmed. 07 Dec 17: Containership Boarded in Manila Anchorage, Philippines: A container vessel was boarded in Manila anchorage, 13°25N, 120°52E. The robbers were spotted by the crew near the forecastle, and fled as the crew mustered, escaping with ship’s properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 49 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 49 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49

Headlines From This Week

The United States Recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – In a highly controversial move, President Trump, on 06 December, announced his intention to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, signifying that the US views Jerusalem as the country’s capital (the international community views Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem as illegal). This move is expected to damage the peace process and has led to protests in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and across the Muslim world. The policy shift has been criticised by regional and global allies of the United States.
Former President Saleh Killed – Yemen’s former President was killed by Houthi rebels on 04 December, just days after making peace overtures to the Saudi-led coalition, his opponents in the country’s civil war. Saleh and his followers had allied with the Houthis in the ongoing conflict. He had been described as Yemen’s only chance for peace. His death is likely to complicate the peace process.
ELN and FARC Clashes – 13 people were killed in clashes between the militant National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, officials confirmed on 05 December. The clashes occurred close to the Ecuadorean border as ELN guerrillas sought to disarm a local farmers’ resistance group. FARC have disbanded after years of fighting an insurgency and became a legitimate political party after accords with the government came into force this year. ELN are also seeking a peace deal with the government but these clashes would appear to break the three-month ceasefire the group have with the government.
Russia Banned from 2018 Olympics – The International Olympic Committee (IOC) have banned Russia from the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea due to drug doping issues. Clean athletes will still be able to attend under a neutral flag. The presence of Russian (and Chinese) athletes at the Games decreases the likelihood of a North Korean military attack.
Fires in California – At least 200,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires spread across southern California. By 08 December, fires had been raging for five days, aided by dry and windy weather which is expected to last until 10 December. More than 57,000 hectares have been scorched across the state and 5,700 firefighters are trying to contain six large wildfires. Los Angeles county is affected by three fires while Riverside, Ventura, and San Diego counties are all subjected to one fire apiece.
Former President Kirchner Indicted – A judge in Argentina has indicted former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on treason charges over allegations that she covered up possible Iranian involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre. This move has already been met by pro-Kirchner protests in the capital.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-US Protests Planned Worldwide – Travellers are advised that the unrest in response to the US’ plan to move its Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem are unlikely to subside in the short run. Protests are expected to continue in the region and further afield. US Embassies are set to face unrest in Canada, Ireland, the UK, France, Belgium, Morocco, and elsewhere. Such protests should be avoided as violence is a possibility.
WTO Conference – The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Ministerial Conference is to take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina from 11-13 December. 5,000 WTO delegates are set to attend. Road closures and heightened security is anticipated near Puerto Madero, Centro Cultural Kirchner, and the University of Buenos Aires School of Law.
Jammu and Kashmir General Strike – ‘All Parties Hurriyat Conference’, a separatist group, has called on its supporters to engage in a Dawn to Dusk shutdown strike on 10 December. The move is in line with International Human Rights Day. A rally is due take place to the UN Military Observers’ headquarters in Srinagar. Violence is possible during this period.

Significant Dates & Events

09 December – Tanzania Independence Day
10 December – Transport strikes in Valencia, Spain
10 December – Municipal Elections in Venezuela
12 December – Jamhuri Day in Kenya
12 December – US Senate Special Election for Alabama
12 December – Potential for a 24-hour strike on RER Lines A and B in Paris
13 December – Pro-migrant rally to occur in Brussels
13 December – Saint Lucia National Day
15 December – Italian Aviation Workers to Strike

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 49 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48

Headlines From This Week

Mount Agung Erupted in Bali – The volcano at Mount Agung erupted in Bali, leading to the imposition of a 12km exclusion zone around the crater, and mass disruption to air travel due to the resulting ash cloud. Several thousand flights from Bali International Airport were cancelled, stranding travellers. A change in weather conditions has lead to a clearing of the ash cloud, and flights have since recommenced.
North Korea Launched a New ICBM – North Korea carried out a test-launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Based on its flight characteristics, Japanese and US officials suggest it has an effective range of approximately 13,000km, placing the vast majority of the USA within range. Observers are unable to judge, based on this launch, the weapon’s accuracy, payload, or ability to safely re-enter the atmosphere; all key attributes to a combat-ready rocket. This launch demonstrated the continued ineffectiveness of international sanctions on halting the North Korean nuclear weapons programme.
The Japanese Emperor Announced his Abdication – Emperor Akihito announced that he will abdicate his position on 30 April 2019, becoming the first Japanese monarch to abdicate in over 200 years. On the date of the proposed abdication, Akihito will be 85 years old. The title of Emperor will be passed to Crown Prince Naruhito, who will be 59 on the date of his succession. The role of Emperor is principally ceremonial, with all actions carried out by the Emperor requiring cabinet approval.
Honduran Election – Hondurans went to the polls for their general election on 26 November, electing their President, 128 members of Congress, and a variety of municipal positions. Protesters and police have clashed across the country as the opposition candidate lost a five point lead following a slow counting process and a computer glitch in the vote tallying system. A large number of ballot boxes reportedly arrived for counting with inconsistencies and potential evidence of tampering. Unrest is likely to persist up to, and following the announcement of the result.• Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.
Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Finnish Independence Day – 06 December marks the centenary of Finland’s independence from Russia. Celebrations officially begin mid-afternoon on 05 December, and travellers should expect disruption as festivals, parades, and public celebrations are held in most towns and cities. Considering heightened tensions with Russia in recent years, some disruptions at border stations are possible.
Nepalese Elections – The second round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Thursday 07 December, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local elections had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. Security and restrictions at border crossings with India are frequently heightened during election periods.
GCC Summit in Kuwait – Kuwait City is to host a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council on 05-06 December. Travellers should expect enhanced security measures to be in place for the duration of the summit.

Significant Dates & Events

02 December – Laos National Day, the anniversary of the Republic’s foundation
02 December – UAE National Day
03 December – First Sunday of Advent, a widely celebrated Christian religious event
03 December – Pakistan People’s Party scheduled protests in Rahin Yar Khan, Punjab
07 December – Alitalia staff set to conduct a 24 hour, nationwide strike across Italy
08 December – Feast of the Immaculate Conception, a widely celebrated Christian holiday

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 48 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

December 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – December 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The December 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47

Headlines From This Week

Houthi Rebels Threaten Maritime Traffic – Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to attack international shipping, particularly oil vessels, and those flagged to states in the Saudi-led coalition. The objective of the threat appeared to be to apply pressure on the Saudi-led coalition to raise the blockade imposed upon all Yemeni ports. In this respect, it may be seen as successful, as Saudi Arabia announced that the blockade to Yemen would be eased to permit humanitarian access.
North Korea Declared State Sponsor of Terrorism – In response to North Korea’s continued provocation, US President, Donald Trump, placed the state on the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism. President George W. Bush removed North Korea from the list in 2008. The move was met with approval by a number of regional states, including Japan, however it is likely to have raised regional tensions and increased the likelihood of a further North Korean action in response.
German Coalition Talks Broke Down – German coalition talks, seeking to form a new government for Chancellor Angela Merkel, broke down during the week. Specific details are uncertain, however key policy issues between the Greens and the Free Democratic Party appear to have prevented the two parties uniting behind Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Social Democrats have signalled they are willing to consider renewing the previous “grand coalition” with the CDU, however they have not indicated any terms at this stage. It remains probable, however, that a new election will be announced before Christmas 2017, for polling in early 2018.
Chilean Election – Chilean voters went to the polls on Sunday 19 November to elect their legislature and conduct the first round of their presidential elections. Turn-out was reported to be approximately 47 per cent, higher than expected. Low turn-out is generally perceived to benefit conservative candidates. The right-wing candidate, Pinera, came in approximately five per cent below expectations, below the 40 per cent mark required to avoid a run-off. The two most notable opposition candidates polled 43 per cent between them, and there remains a possibility that their supporters will unite to support the opposition candidate on the 17 December run-off, potentially offering a surprise victory for left-leaning parties.
Mosque Attack in North Sinai – At least 200 people were killed as insurgents launched a coordinated firearm and bomb attack on a mosque in the town of Bir al-Abed, west of al-Arish. Four vehicles carrying armed men approached the mosque during Friday prayers and attacked the worshippers. The mosque was likely targeted due to its affiliation to the mystic Sufi branch of Islam, members of which are viewed as heretics by Salafist jihadi groups such as the Islamic State. Previous attacks in the region have focused on attacking security forces.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Bosnian Republic Day – 25 November marks the national celebration of Bosnia’s foundation and is likely to be marked by festivals and political events. Issues surrounding the nation’s founding remain contentious in some areas, and travellers in the country should expect disruption in urban areas, and possibly at the Serbian border.
Nepalese Elections – The first round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Sunday 26 November, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local election had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. The second round is scheduled for 07 December.
Prophets Birthday – The Islamic festival of Milad in Nabi will be observed across the Muslim world between Thursday 30 November and Friday 01 December. Major urban areas are likely to host substantial festivals, and provision of services is likely be substantially impacted. Those seeking to travel during or immediately after the festival should ensure their arrangements are in place in advance in order to minimise delays.

Significant Dates & Events

25 November – Bosnian Republic Day
25 November – Suriname celebrates its national day
26 November – Protests planed at London’s Libyan embassy due to the ongoing refugee crisis
26 November – The first round of the Nepal
26 November – Honduran general election
28 November – Albanian independence day
30 November – Milad in Nabi Islamic holiday starts
01 December – The Maldives celebrate Qaumme Dhuvs, victory over the Portuguese
01 December – 24 hour ground crew strike at Milan International Airport

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 47 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.