Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04

Headlines From This Week

World Economic Forum – The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, ends on 26 January. The event saw substantially less activist activity than was anticipated, with approximately 2,000 protesters demonstrating in Zurich. Approximately 20 protesters managed to breach the security cordon in the town of Davos itself, but they were dispersed peacefully by police.
Turkish Incursion into Syria – Turkish forces, supported by militants from the Free Syrian Army launched an operation to clear Kurdish militia groups from the northern Syrian area of Afrin. The Turkish military objectives appear to remain limited, the assault was likely intended to enhance Turkey’s negotiating position with the US and other coalition partners engaged in the region against Islamic State.
Major attacks in Jalalabad and Kabul – The Afghan branches of both the Taliban and Islamic State launched major attacks in Afghanistan. The Taliban conducted an explosives and small arms attack on the Kabul Intercontinental hotel on 20 January, which had recently handed its security measures to a private company. 42 people were killed, 17 of which were foreign nationals. The Islamic State attacked the Save the Children charity’s offices in Jalalabad on 24 January, resulting in two fatalities and leaving 12 wounded.
US Government Shutdown – The US Government experienced a three-day shut down between 20 and 22 January. This resulted in a cessation of all “non-essential” services, with government employees responsible for the provision of these services asked to stay home without pay. A political compromise in the Senate led to a short-term funding bill to end the shutdown, but a further shutdown is likely in February.
IED Attack in Benghazi – Two car bombs were detonated in a residential area of Benghazi on 23 January, the second blast was timed to target those who gathered to help victims of the first blast. A total of 33 people were killed, and 47 wounded. It is believed that the attack was carried out by a cell of Islamic State insurgents who remain in the city despite the organisation’s military defeat.
Tsunami Warnings Across the West Coast of North America – An earthquake of approximately magnitude 8.2 struck south of Kodiak Island in Alaska, resulting in the issuing of tsunami warnings throughout the eastern pacific, particularly the US and Canada’s western seaboards. No damage was reported as a result of the quake due to the distance from major inhabited areas; waves measuring approximately 0.3m were reported, however, but had no impact as they occurred well offshore.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Australian Tennis Open – Australia is scheduled to hold its 2018 tennis finals on 27 – 28 January. Australia has suffered occasional, lone wolf, terror attacks in recent years, including an as-yet unclassified attack on a police officer on 26 January 2018. Travellers should expect high levels of security around the venue in Melbourne.
Thaipusam Festival – The 2018 Thaipusam festival will be held in Malaysia on 31 January. Additional security measures should be expected around Hindu temple locations, and service provision is likely to be reduced due to business closures related to the holiday.
Cost of Living Protests in Khartoum – The opposition-planned protests due to be held in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, on 31 January are likely to result in significant disruption and possible violence. Sudanese security forces responded with force to small-scale, spontaneous, demonstrations over the month of January, and are likely to respond in a similar manner to more widespread incidents.

Significant Dates & Events

27 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
27 January – Opposition protests scheduled in Tirana, Albania
27 January – Anti-Trump marches planned in Washington DC
27-28 January – Extensive maintenance to disrupt Mumbai’s rail network
28 January – Finnish presidential elections
28 January – Cyprus presidential elections
28 January – Opposition protests scheduled in major cities throughout Russia
29 January – Italian high-speed rail workers to strike
30 January – Opposition and anti-corruption protests planned in Lima.
31 January – Anti-government protests in Khartoum, Sudan, due to increasing food costs
01 February – Air Do cancelled 26 flights from Japan due to a pilot shortage

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 043 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03

Headlines From This Week

Winter Storms in Europe – At least nine people were killed after Storm Friederike hit western Europe. Hurricane level winds shut down transportation systems in parts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Adverse weather conditions were reported from the United Kingdom to as far away as Romania.
Assassination in Kosovo – Prominent Kosovo Serb Politician, Oliver Ivanović, was assassinated outside of his party’s headquarters on 16 January. This murder came on the same day that Belgrade and Pristina began talks on normalising ties after a break of more than a year. Ivanović was an opponent of the Belgrade-backed Serb party in Kosovo. His death may further complicate regional relations.
Significant Earthquake off Peru Coast – On 14 January 2018, a magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Peru. At least two people have been reported dead, with dozens more left injured or homeless with a state of emergency declared in the affected zones. Many have been left without power and roads have been damaged; international travel remains uninterrupted.
Volcanic Activity in Southeast Asia – Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia has shown continued activity, spewing volcanic ash 2,000 metres into the air on 15 January but has since settled. Activity at Mayon Volcano, Philippines has forced 38,000 people from their homes. Thousands have been evacuated from islands surrounding Kadovar, Papua New Guinea, as scientists suggest that a volcanic eruption could be imminent.
Twin Suicide Bombings in Maiduguri – A double suicide bombing at a market in the northern Nigerian city of Maiduguri killed at least 12 and injured 48 others on 17 January. One attacker was male and the other female. Boko Haram are the most likely culprits of this attack; the Islamic insurgency group has killed more than 20,000 people in its nine-year insurgency.
Clashes at Tripoli Airport – At least 20 people were killed after clashes at Tripoli Mitiga Airport, with another 63 injured. Fighting started on 15 January. The Special Deterrent Force, a militia which controls the airport, clashed with a rival militia led by local strongman Bashir al-Baqara; both militias are ostensibly allied with the UN-backed government. Reports suggest that al-Baqara was fighting to release his men held at a nearby prison. All flights were diverted to Misrata Airport, though operations have reportedly resumed at Mitiga.
Tensions in the Nile Region – Tensions continue to rise in the Nile region as Sudan sent more troops to its border with Eritrea, partly in reaction to the reported presence of Egyptian troops in Eritrea. Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia on one side, and Egypt and Eritrea on the other, have deteriorated recently, as all sides seek to maintain, or increase, control over precious natural resources.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Kabila Rally in the DRC – Catholics in the Democratic Republic of Congo called for a fresh rally against the continued premiership of President Kabila for 21 January. New Year’s Eve protests against Kabila’s rule led to the deaths of at least six people. Significant and violent unrest should be expected in Kinshasa especially.
‘Women’s March’ Rallies – The 2018 Women’s March, planned as a follow up to the 2017 march, is due to take place on 20-21 January 2017. The primary event will take place on 21 January 2018 in Las Vegas, United States, with other significant marches occurring in New York City and Washington DC. Marches of different sizes have been confirmed in at least 31 different countries/territories, including dozens of marches across the United States.
World Economic Forum – The annual World Economic Forum conference is due to take place in Davos, Switzerland between 23-26 January 2018. Many heads of states due to attend, including President Trump. Enhanced security measures and the unrest should be expected in the lead up to, and during, the event.

Significant Dates & Events

20 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
21 January – Hong Kong Marathon
22 January – Inauguration of George Weah as Liberia’s new president
24 January – Unification Day, Romania
25-26 January – India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit, New Delhi, India
25-27 January – Opposition rallies planned in Honduras as the new president is sworn in
25-28 January – Winter X Games take place in Aspen, Colorado
25 January – Revolution Day, Egypt
26 January – Australia Day, Australia
26 January – Republic Day, India
26 January – Second Round of Czech presidential elections
26 January – National Resistance Movement (NRM) Liberation Day, Uganda

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 03 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02

Headlines From This Week

California Mudslide – At least 17 people were killed by mudslides on 09 January in Santa Barbara County, California. On 12 January, the search for survivors entered a fourth day; the number of missing could be as high as 43 according to local officials. A mandatory evacuation zone has been put in place.
Protests Against Ex-President’s Pardon – Protests have continued this week in Peru after the decision to pardon ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was convicted of human rights’ abuses and corruption. Protestors have also called for the resignation of incumbent President Kuczynski who granted the pardon; Kuczynski has been accused of granting the pardon in return for support against an impeachment vote.
Deadly Protests in Tunisia – Protests against the government’s 2018 budget bill have turned violent this week. The government has reported that 21 people have died but some rights groups suggest that the real number could be more than double this. Security forces have so far reported 778 arrests. Further protests are expected, partly in response to the government’s reaction to the protests.
ELN-Government Talks Breakdown – This week marked the end of negotiations between the guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the government. The move comes after the rebel group conducted a series of attacks immediately after the ceasefire between the two entities expired on 10 January.
‘Bread Protests’ in Sudan – Reports suggest that at least three people have been killed in ‘bread protests’ in Sudan. Protests occurred after the government decided to cut subsidies, which led to price rises. Protests have been ongoing since 07 January and look set to continue.
East China Sea Maritime Incident – An Iranian-owned oil vessel has been ablaze since 06 January after it collided with another vessel in the East China Sea. It has since drifted into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The vessel was en route to South Korea with almost one million barrels of oil aboard. One body, believed to have been one of the vessel’s crew has been recovered; the other 32 sailors remain missing.
Iran Sanctions – President Trump looks set to renew the Iran nuclear deal according to officials in Washington DC. However, his administration is expected to add economic sanctions on Iranian businesses and individuals for support of terrorist groups across the Middle East and other misconduct. The United States’ European partners had been keen to see the deal continue, causing some cross-Atlantic friction since President Trump took office.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pope Francis to Visit South America – Heightened security and travel disruptions are expected during Peru’s papal visit between 18 and 21 January. Pope Francis is due to visit Lima, Puerto Maldonado, and Trujillo. Before Peru, Francis is set to visit Chile, with Santiago, Temuco, and Iquique the primary locations of his visit.
Australian Tennis Open Begins – The first of four ‘Grand Slams’, the Australian tennis open is due to take place between 15 and 28 January. The event takes place in Melbourne Park, Melbourne. Enhanced security measures and travel delays should be expected in the area. Protests are also possible given that one stadium which is hosting matches is named after Margaret Court who has been criticised for having homophobic views.
2018 Women’s March – An anniversary event for the 2017 Women’s march is set to take place on 20 January. The primary event is set to take place in Las Vegas in the United States, with sister marches occurring in Europe, South America, Asia, and Australasia. While disruption is likely, protests are not expected to turn violent.

Significant Dates & Events

13 January – Separatist groups plan strikes in Jammu and Kashmir
13 January – Airport workers are to rally in Nadi, Fiji
14 January – Hindu festival of Makar Sankranti
14 January – Christian Orthodox New Year
14 January – Revolution and Youth Day, Tunisia
14 January – Day of Defenders of the Motherland, Uzbekistan
14 January – Tamil Thai Pongal Day, Sri Lanka
15 January – Martin Luther King Day in the United States
15 January – John Chilembwe Day, Malawi
16-17 January – Heroes’ Day in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 02 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01

Headlines From The Week

Positive Moves on the Korean Peninsula – In a surprising move, President Kim stated his intention to consider opening dialogue with South Korea to cover North Korea’s involvement in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics which begin in February 2018. North Korea’s involvement in the Games is likely to decrease the possibility of military tests or an attack during the event. Planned US-South Korea military drills which were due to take place during the Games have been postponed; Pyongyang views these annual drills as provocation.
Unrest in the DRC – An estimated 12 people were killed in renewed protests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Dozens more were injured and more than 120 arrested in widespread anti-government protests, as demonstrators called on President Kabila to step down and respect a 2016 political agreement in which he had pledged to allow for new elections before the end of that year.
Storm Grayson Strikes the USA – Storm Grayson has caused hazardous travel conditions along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The storm has brought strong winds, heavy snowfall, and freezing conditions. At least 12 deaths have been attributed to the cold, more than 2,700 flights have been cancelled, and tens of thousands have been left without power. States of emergency have been issued in certain locations.
Iranian Protests Continue – Violent protests have continued throughout Iran, with unrest reported in more than 70 cities. More than 20 people have said to have been killed, though security forces have been relatively calm in their response, compared to previous cases of unrest, refraining from widespread aggression.
Brazil Prison Break – At least 77 inmates escaped from a jail in the central state of Goias in Brazil on 01 January. The breakout occurred after a riot in the jail between two rival criminal gangs; nine prisoners were killed and 14 injured. Brazil’s jails are notoriously overcrowded with violence an endemic issue.
Kabul Terror Attack – At least 20 people were killed and 30 more were killed in a terror attack in the Afghan capital of Kabul on 04 January. Authorities have reported that a suicide bomber targeted police officers who were handling a protest. The Afghan affiliate of Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks.
US Security Aid to Pakistan Cut – The US government announced plans to cut almost all of its security aid to Pakistan, claiming that it has failed to deal with terror groups operating within its borders, despite Pakistan being a key regional ally. The move has been praised by India and Afghanistan; though China, which has invested heavily in Pakistan, has come to its defence.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Orthodox Christmas and the Epiphany – Orthodox Christians are to celebrate their Christmas on the 06-07 January. This may cause some disruptions in Orthodox countries, notably in Eastern Europe. Other Christians around the world also celebrate the Epiphany religious holiday on the same dates, this is likely to cause limited disruption.
North-South Korea Talks – The first of high-level talks between Pyongyang and Seoul since December 2015 are set to take place at the ‘truce village’ of Panmunjom on 09 January. These talks, proposed by Seoul after President Kim’s new year message, are set to cover the potential for North Korea’s involvement in the upcoming Winter Olympics, to be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea in February. The participation of North Korea is set to improve the security of the Games. It is also hoped that other issues can be discussed during this meeting. It is unclear, at present, why President Kim offered this olive branch in his New Year’s Day message.

Significant Dates & Events

06 January – Pro-Kurdish march to take place in Paris.
06 January – Anti-Corruption march to take place in Tel Aviv.
07 January – Northern Cyprus elections.
07 January – Victory over Genocide Day (Cambodia).
08,10,12 January – South Western Railway (UK) walkouts.
09 January – Martyrs Day (Panama).
11 January – Proclamation of Independence Day.
11 January – Air France Pilots threaten walkout.
12 January – Zanzibar Revolution Day
12-13 January – Czech Republic Presidential Elections.
12-15 January – Hungarian Civil Service plan to strike.
12 January – Norway’s FlyViking airline to cease operations.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 01 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

January 2018 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – January 2018 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The January 2018 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52

Headlines From This Week

Coptic Church Attacked in Egypt – Gunmen opened fire on a Coptic church in Helwan, south of Cairo on 29 December. Preliminary reporting suggested that ten worshippers were killed before police shot and killed the attackers.
Explosion in Saint Petersburg – An explosive device was detonated in a Perekrestok supermarket in central Saint Petersburg on 27 December. At least 13 people were wounded in the explosion which the Russian authorities are treating as a terrorist incident. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Liberian Election Results Announced – George Weah was announced as the winner of the Liberian presidential election following a delayed and protracted vote-counting process. Provided his inauguration in January occurs as planned, it will mark Liberia’s first democratic and peaceful transfer of power.
41 Killed in Kabul Suicide Bombing – The Islamic State’s Afghan off-shoot claimed responsibility for a suicide attack at a Shi’ite event in western Kabul. The attack resulted in at least 41 killed, and over 80 wounded, the majority of which were civilians. Two other explosions followed the attack in an apparent effort to target emergency responders and those fleeing the first blast.
Venezuelan Diplomatic Crisis – The Venezuelan ambassador to Brazil was declared persona non-grata by Brazil following Venezuela’s expulsion of Brazil’s ambassador over the Christmas weekend. The Canadian ambassador was also expelled from Venezuela due to Canada’s imposition of sanctions. Canada is likely to reciprocate and expel the Venezuelan mission.
Iran Protests – Several hundred protesters demonstrated in Mashhad against high prices and the government’s foreign policies. At least 52 people were detained by police, who deployed teargas and water cannons against the crowds. Clerical officials have called for harsh treatment of those arrested.
South Korea Seized an Alleged North Korean Smuggling Vessel – The South Korean authorities seized a Hong Kong flagged tanker which had illegally conducted ship-to-ship transfers of oil to North Korean tankers in defiance of international sanctions. The vessel’s owner remains unclear, however senior members of the United States’ administration have accused China of assisting North Korea in circumventing the sanctions.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Gregorian New Year – New Year’s celebrations are planned across the world for 31 December to 01 January. Many nations have national holidays over these dates and travellers should expect reduced provision of services across most industries, in addition to disruption due to festive events. Travellers should remain aware that New Year’s celebrations have previously been targeted by terror groups seeking mass casualties, as well as criminal groups focused on robbery or sexual assaults. Major cities, including London, New York, Istanbul, and Berlin have implemented substantially heightened security measures.
Continued Protests in Lima – Civil unrest in Peru’s capital, Lima, is highly likely to continue following the pardoning of a former president who was jailed for corrupt practices whilst in office. The current president, Pedro Kuczynski, recently avoided impeachment due to corruption charges. His use of the pardon in this instance reignited substantial public anger.

Significant Dates & Events

31 December – New Year’s Eve
31 December – Workers to stage 24 hour strike on London’s Docklands Light Railway and Southwest Rail
01 January – New Year’s Day
01 January – Cuba celebrates Liberation Day
01 January – Haiti celebrates Independence Day
01 January – Sudan celebrates Independence Day
04 January – Railway staff to strike in Eindhoven.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 52 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51

Headlines From This Week

Ramming Incident in Melbourne – 19 people were injured after a car driver deliberately drove into pedestrians on a busy street in Melbourne, Australia on 21 December. Police have said the driver, who has been arrested, had a history of mental illness and drug abuse but no known extremist links.
Houthi Rocket Shot Down over Riyadh – Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a rocket at the Saudi Arabian king’s residence in the capital Riyadh on 19 December. The rocket was intercepted by the Saudi air force south of the capital. This marks the third such rocket attack by the Houthis on Riyadh in the last month and increases tensions in the region; Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supplying the Houthis with sophisticated weaponry.
Regional Elections in Catalonia – A snap election for the regional parliament in Catalonia was held on 21 December. Despite pro-independence parties gaining a slim, and reduced, majority in the assembly, a prounion party gained the largest share of the vote. It is unclear who will be tasked with forming a government.
UN Vote on US’ Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed a resolution which called on the USA to withdraw its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. 128 states, include the four permanent members of the UN Security Council besides the US, voted to approve the non-binding resolution, with 35 abstaining, and nine (including the US, Israel, and a host of smaller countries) voting against. The US Ambassador to the UN, warned that “the United States will remember this day.”
Clashes Continue in Anglophone Cameroon – This week saw continued clashes in the English-speaking region of Cameroon. Armed separatists killed four soldiers after attacking a military installation in Kembong and reports emerged of villages being set ablaze. 30,000 refugees have fled to Nigeria from the region.
Two Tropical Storms Strike Southeast Asia – Over the last week, Tropical Storms Kai-Tak and Tembin have made landfall on the Philippines and impacted other countries in the region. Dozens have been left dead by landslides and flooding. Kai-Tak’s path went across the Visayas whereas Tembin’s route crossed Mindanao in Philippines south. A state of emergency was declared in the wake of Tropical Storm Kai-Tak.
Peru President Survives Impeachment Vote – Congress in Peru has voted not to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski over alleged corruption. The opposition wanted to impeach him for allegedly receiving illegal payments from Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht; other political leaders in the region have been brought down by the ongoing scandal.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Liberia Presidential Election – After a delay of more than a month due to a legal challenge, the runoff vote for the presidency of Liberia is due to occur on 26 December. The contest pits George Weah, a retired football player and junior senator, against Joseph Boakai, the incumbent vice president. Weah garnered more votes in the first round, having a 10 per cent advantage over Boakai.
Further Anti-Corruption Protests in Israel – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains under pressure to resign over corruption allegations. Protestors are due to continue their demonstrations with a rally outside Tel Aviv’s Independence Hall on 23 December at 2000 hours local time, and further gatherings in Paris and Zion Squares of Jerusalem from 1700 and 1800 hours respectively.
Anti-Corruption Protests in Romania – Anti-corruption activists are to rally in various cities of Romania on 23 December. Rallies are due to occur between 1400 and 1600 hours local time, with the largest protest due to begin in Bucharest’s Victory Square. Protestors are opposing judicial reforms proposed in Romania.

Significant Dates & Events

23 December – Sindh sugar cane workers to protest
23 December – Anti-US protests outside US Embassy in Prague. Czech Republic
23-24 December – UK CrossCountry Rail staff to strike
25 December – Christmas Day
26 December – Boxing Day
26 December – Macedonian railway workers to strike
27 December – Greater Anglia staff to strike in the UK

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 51 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 50

Headlines From This Week

Failed Terror Attack in New York – Five people were injured after an individual detonated a pipe bomb below the Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York City on 11 December. The attacker, a Bangladeshi immigrant who had reportedly entered the US on an immigrant visa, pledged allegiance to Islamic State and claimed the attack in response to Israeli actions in Gaza. The two explosive devices on his person did not explode as had been intended.
Terror Attack in Mogadishu – At least 18 police officers were killed and 15 injured after an Al Shabab suicide bomber blew himself up inside Somalia’s main police academy in Mogadishu, on 14 December. The attacker reportedly disguised himself as a police officer to gain entry to the academy. This attack comes just two months after an Al Shabab bombing killed more than 500 people and levelled buildings in the Somali capital.
Deadly Airstrike on Houthi Prison – At least 30 prisoners were killed after Saudi coalition airstrikes on the city of Sanaa, which is controlled by the rebel Houthi forces. Local media reported that dozens were injured in seven raids targeting facilities controlled by the Houthis. The prison attacked by Saudi-led airstrikes housed 180 prisoners at that time.
Martial Law Extended in Mindanao – On 13 December, the Philippines Senate and House of Representatives voted in favour of approving a request by President Duterte to extend martial law in Mindanao until the end of December 2018. Martial law was initially implemented in May 2017 as a measure to control the rise of Islamic militants in the area. The move has been criticised by rights groups, including Amnesty International, who claim that human rights abuses have flourished in the area under the shadow of martial law.
Russia Announces Withdrawal from Syria – President Putin announced a “significant” withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Despite initial suggestions by the US that Moscow would find itself “stuck in a quagmire”, it seems to have been successful in its intervention in the Syrian Civil War, namely through the maintenance of ally Bashar al-Assad as President. Russia will keep two military bases in north-western Syria.
Peruvian President Resists Pressure to Resign – Peru’s president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is under serious pressure to resign due to the ongoing corruption allegations involving Brazilian construction firm, Odebrecht. Kuczynski was allegedly paid US$5 million in advisory fees while in a previous government role. The Odebrecht corruption scandal has impacted many political leaders across Central and South America. Indeed, the company was fined a record US$3.5 billion by the US in 2016 for bribing officials; ‘advisory fees’ was one such method used by Odebrecht to bribe public officials.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ANC National Conference – South Africa’s ruling African National Conference (ANC) are set to elect a new leader at their national conference in Johannesburg between 16 and 20 December. While Jacob Zuma will remain as president, the new ANC leader will spearhead the election campaign in 2019. Corruption allegations have blighted Zuma’s leadership; the new leader will face the challenge of uniting a party with deep divisions. The two favourite candidates are Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Christmas Transport Strikes in Europe – Transport workers across Europe are due to participate in various strikes next week. This includes security staff at Madrid Barajas Airport (from 22 December), Iberia Staff at Barcelona’s El Prat Airport (from 21st December), and baggage handlers at Paris’s Orly Airport (from 22 December). Travellers should contact their operators to understand if or how they may be impacted by these strikes.
‘Million March’ against US in Karachi – The Jamaat-e-Islami party have announced their intention to march on 17 December against the US’ recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The march is set to occur in Karachi and is likely to cause extensive travel delays. This is just one of a host of anti-US protests to have been organised in response to the United States’ new Israeli policy.

Significant Dates & Events

16 December – Bahrain National Day
16 December – Kazakhstan Independence Day
17 December – Bhutan National Day
17 December – Icelandic air Engineers threaten strike
17 December – Major infrastructure work begins on Singapore’s MRT
18 December – Niger Republic Day
18 December – Qatar National Day
20 December – Irish Ryanair pilots to srike
20 December – Macau Special Administrative Region Establishment Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 50 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 50 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 49 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Dec 17: Armed Pirates Attempted to Board a Merchant Vessel near Bonny Island, Nigeria. The vessel was underway at position 03°31N, 07°70E, 53nm south of Bonny Island. A small vessel with eight armed persons came alongside the merchant vessel and attempted to board. Vessel and crew safe. 07 Dec 17: Suspicious Approach by Two Skiffs Reported by Merchant Vessel. A merchant vessel underway at 02°32N 00°01E, 112nm south of Bonny Island, was approached by two skiffs which came to within 300m of the vessel before steering away. 08 Dec 17: Cargo Vessel Boarded near Fairway Buoy, Nigeria. Twelve armed pirates boarded a cargo vessel at 04°11N 07°00E, 16nm from Fairway Buoy. All crew withdrew to the citadel after issuing a distress call. The Nigerian Navy boarded the vessel to find the pirates had escaped and all crew were safe. The vessel had previously been attacked, and the master kidnapped, on 01 December.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

07 Dec 17: Vessel Fired Upon South West of Hodeidah, Yemen. A vessel underway at 14°32N, 42°47E, 20nm southwest of Hodeidah, was approached by two skiffs carrying armed persons, who opened fire upon the vessel. Vessel evaded attack and escaped with all crew safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Dec 17: Anchored Container Ship Robbed in Manila, Philippines. Robbers gained access to the vessel via the anchor chain and stole lift rafts and immersion suits, before escaping undetected. 05 Dec 17: Barge Boarded by Robbers in Kutubdia, Bangladesh: A barge under tow was boarded at 21°52N, 91°45E, west of Kutubida Island. Robbers escaped with property, the barge and tug’s crew were unharmed. 07 Dec 17: Containership Boarded in Manila Anchorage, Philippines: A container vessel was boarded in Manila anchorage, 13°25N, 120°52E. The robbers were spotted by the crew near the forecastle, and fled as the crew mustered, escaping with ship’s properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 49 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 49 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49

Headlines From This Week

The United States Recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – In a highly controversial move, President Trump, on 06 December, announced his intention to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, signifying that the US views Jerusalem as the country’s capital (the international community views Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem as illegal). This move is expected to damage the peace process and has led to protests in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and across the Muslim world. The policy shift has been criticised by regional and global allies of the United States.
Former President Saleh Killed – Yemen’s former President was killed by Houthi rebels on 04 December, just days after making peace overtures to the Saudi-led coalition, his opponents in the country’s civil war. Saleh and his followers had allied with the Houthis in the ongoing conflict. He had been described as Yemen’s only chance for peace. His death is likely to complicate the peace process.
ELN and FARC Clashes – 13 people were killed in clashes between the militant National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, officials confirmed on 05 December. The clashes occurred close to the Ecuadorean border as ELN guerrillas sought to disarm a local farmers’ resistance group. FARC have disbanded after years of fighting an insurgency and became a legitimate political party after accords with the government came into force this year. ELN are also seeking a peace deal with the government but these clashes would appear to break the three-month ceasefire the group have with the government.
Russia Banned from 2018 Olympics – The International Olympic Committee (IOC) have banned Russia from the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea due to drug doping issues. Clean athletes will still be able to attend under a neutral flag. The presence of Russian (and Chinese) athletes at the Games decreases the likelihood of a North Korean military attack.
Fires in California – At least 200,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires spread across southern California. By 08 December, fires had been raging for five days, aided by dry and windy weather which is expected to last until 10 December. More than 57,000 hectares have been scorched across the state and 5,700 firefighters are trying to contain six large wildfires. Los Angeles county is affected by three fires while Riverside, Ventura, and San Diego counties are all subjected to one fire apiece.
Former President Kirchner Indicted – A judge in Argentina has indicted former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on treason charges over allegations that she covered up possible Iranian involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre. This move has already been met by pro-Kirchner protests in the capital.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-US Protests Planned Worldwide – Travellers are advised that the unrest in response to the US’ plan to move its Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem are unlikely to subside in the short run. Protests are expected to continue in the region and further afield. US Embassies are set to face unrest in Canada, Ireland, the UK, France, Belgium, Morocco, and elsewhere. Such protests should be avoided as violence is a possibility.
WTO Conference – The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Ministerial Conference is to take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina from 11-13 December. 5,000 WTO delegates are set to attend. Road closures and heightened security is anticipated near Puerto Madero, Centro Cultural Kirchner, and the University of Buenos Aires School of Law.
Jammu and Kashmir General Strike – ‘All Parties Hurriyat Conference’, a separatist group, has called on its supporters to engage in a Dawn to Dusk shutdown strike on 10 December. The move is in line with International Human Rights Day. A rally is due take place to the UN Military Observers’ headquarters in Srinagar. Violence is possible during this period.

Significant Dates & Events

09 December – Tanzania Independence Day
10 December – Transport strikes in Valencia, Spain
10 December – Municipal Elections in Venezuela
12 December – Jamhuri Day in Kenya
12 December – US Senate Special Election for Alabama
12 December – Potential for a 24-hour strike on RER Lines A and B in Paris
13 December – Pro-migrant rally to occur in Brussels
13 December – Saint Lucia National Day
15 December – Italian Aviation Workers to Strike

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 49 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48

Headlines From This Week

Mount Agung Erupted in Bali – The volcano at Mount Agung erupted in Bali, leading to the imposition of a 12km exclusion zone around the crater, and mass disruption to air travel due to the resulting ash cloud. Several thousand flights from Bali International Airport were cancelled, stranding travellers. A change in weather conditions has lead to a clearing of the ash cloud, and flights have since recommenced.
North Korea Launched a New ICBM – North Korea carried out a test-launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Based on its flight characteristics, Japanese and US officials suggest it has an effective range of approximately 13,000km, placing the vast majority of the USA within range. Observers are unable to judge, based on this launch, the weapon’s accuracy, payload, or ability to safely re-enter the atmosphere; all key attributes to a combat-ready rocket. This launch demonstrated the continued ineffectiveness of international sanctions on halting the North Korean nuclear weapons programme.
The Japanese Emperor Announced his Abdication – Emperor Akihito announced that he will abdicate his position on 30 April 2019, becoming the first Japanese monarch to abdicate in over 200 years. On the date of the proposed abdication, Akihito will be 85 years old. The title of Emperor will be passed to Crown Prince Naruhito, who will be 59 on the date of his succession. The role of Emperor is principally ceremonial, with all actions carried out by the Emperor requiring cabinet approval.
Honduran Election – Hondurans went to the polls for their general election on 26 November, electing their President, 128 members of Congress, and a variety of municipal positions. Protesters and police have clashed across the country as the opposition candidate lost a five point lead following a slow counting process and a computer glitch in the vote tallying system. A large number of ballot boxes reportedly arrived for counting with inconsistencies and potential evidence of tampering. Unrest is likely to persist up to, and following the announcement of the result.• Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.
Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Finnish Independence Day – 06 December marks the centenary of Finland’s independence from Russia. Celebrations officially begin mid-afternoon on 05 December, and travellers should expect disruption as festivals, parades, and public celebrations are held in most towns and cities. Considering heightened tensions with Russia in recent years, some disruptions at border stations are possible.
Nepalese Elections – The second round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Thursday 07 December, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local elections had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. Security and restrictions at border crossings with India are frequently heightened during election periods.
GCC Summit in Kuwait – Kuwait City is to host a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council on 05-06 December. Travellers should expect enhanced security measures to be in place for the duration of the summit.

Significant Dates & Events

02 December – Laos National Day, the anniversary of the Republic’s foundation
02 December – UAE National Day
03 December – First Sunday of Advent, a widely celebrated Christian religious event
03 December – Pakistan People’s Party scheduled protests in Rahin Yar Khan, Punjab
07 December – Alitalia staff set to conduct a 24 hour, nationwide strike across Italy
08 December – Feast of the Immaculate Conception, a widely celebrated Christian holiday

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 48 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

December 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – December 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The December 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47

Headlines From This Week

Houthi Rebels Threaten Maritime Traffic – Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to attack international shipping, particularly oil vessels, and those flagged to states in the Saudi-led coalition. The objective of the threat appeared to be to apply pressure on the Saudi-led coalition to raise the blockade imposed upon all Yemeni ports. In this respect, it may be seen as successful, as Saudi Arabia announced that the blockade to Yemen would be eased to permit humanitarian access.
North Korea Declared State Sponsor of Terrorism – In response to North Korea’s continued provocation, US President, Donald Trump, placed the state on the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism. President George W. Bush removed North Korea from the list in 2008. The move was met with approval by a number of regional states, including Japan, however it is likely to have raised regional tensions and increased the likelihood of a further North Korean action in response.
German Coalition Talks Broke Down – German coalition talks, seeking to form a new government for Chancellor Angela Merkel, broke down during the week. Specific details are uncertain, however key policy issues between the Greens and the Free Democratic Party appear to have prevented the two parties uniting behind Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Social Democrats have signalled they are willing to consider renewing the previous “grand coalition” with the CDU, however they have not indicated any terms at this stage. It remains probable, however, that a new election will be announced before Christmas 2017, for polling in early 2018.
Chilean Election – Chilean voters went to the polls on Sunday 19 November to elect their legislature and conduct the first round of their presidential elections. Turn-out was reported to be approximately 47 per cent, higher than expected. Low turn-out is generally perceived to benefit conservative candidates. The right-wing candidate, Pinera, came in approximately five per cent below expectations, below the 40 per cent mark required to avoid a run-off. The two most notable opposition candidates polled 43 per cent between them, and there remains a possibility that their supporters will unite to support the opposition candidate on the 17 December run-off, potentially offering a surprise victory for left-leaning parties.
Mosque Attack in North Sinai – At least 200 people were killed as insurgents launched a coordinated firearm and bomb attack on a mosque in the town of Bir al-Abed, west of al-Arish. Four vehicles carrying armed men approached the mosque during Friday prayers and attacked the worshippers. The mosque was likely targeted due to its affiliation to the mystic Sufi branch of Islam, members of which are viewed as heretics by Salafist jihadi groups such as the Islamic State. Previous attacks in the region have focused on attacking security forces.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Bosnian Republic Day – 25 November marks the national celebration of Bosnia’s foundation and is likely to be marked by festivals and political events. Issues surrounding the nation’s founding remain contentious in some areas, and travellers in the country should expect disruption in urban areas, and possibly at the Serbian border.
Nepalese Elections – The first round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Sunday 26 November, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local election had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. The second round is scheduled for 07 December.
Prophets Birthday – The Islamic festival of Milad in Nabi will be observed across the Muslim world between Thursday 30 November and Friday 01 December. Major urban areas are likely to host substantial festivals, and provision of services is likely be substantially impacted. Those seeking to travel during or immediately after the festival should ensure their arrangements are in place in advance in order to minimise delays.

Significant Dates & Events

25 November – Bosnian Republic Day
25 November – Suriname celebrates its national day
26 November – Protests planed at London’s Libyan embassy due to the ongoing refugee crisis
26 November – The first round of the Nepal
26 November – Honduran general election
28 November – Albanian independence day
30 November – Milad in Nabi Islamic holiday starts
01 December – The Maldives celebrate Qaumme Dhuvs, victory over the Portuguese
01 December – 24 hour ground crew strike at Milan International Airport

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 47 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46

Headlines From This Week

Coup in Zimbabwe – On 15 November, the military in Zimbabwe took over the running of the country. Long-time President Robert Mugabe has been put under house arrest, with reports suggesting he has refused to step aside. The coup has been peaceful and came about due to the issues of succession to the 93-year-old leader. The military moved after Mugabe sacked Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa last week, signalling that his wife Grace would be the one to take over. The situation in the country is very unclear at present.
Earthquake on Iran-Iraq Border – A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck close to the Iran-Iraq border, in Kermanshah Province, Iran on 12 November. There are differing estimates on the death toll with a figure as high as 530 reported in some media with most of the fatalities occurring in Iran. Thousands more have been injured and tens of thousands have been left homeless. The earthquake was felt as far away as Israel. Questions have been raised about the quality of buildings in the region, many of which collapsed.
End of Opposition in Cambodia – Prime Minister Hun Sen has increased his grip on power in Cambodia, after the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was banned by the Supreme Court on 16 November. 100 members of the CNRP were barred from politics for five years ‘for conspiring with foreigners to stage a revolution’. The US has already announced the suspension of financial support for the Cambodian National Election Committee ahead of the 2018 election. Further sanctions from Cambodia’s western partners should be expected but China has voiced support for the government. No significant protests have so far been reported.
Terrorism in Borno – A terror attack on the outskirts of Maiduguri in Nigeria’s Borno state led to the death of 18 people including four suicide bombers. At least 29 others have been seriously; the death toll is expected to rise. Two males and two females infiltrated the Muna Gari community. The attack has been attributed to the Islamic militant group Boko Haram.
Deadly Floods in Central Greece – At least 15 people have been killed after flash floods caused destruction to the west of Greece’s capital Athens. At least 37 others were taken to hospital. The towns of Mandra, Nea Peramos, and Megara were the most affected. Some roads faced more than a metre of water. The Greek Prime Minister declared a period of national mourning.
A North Korean Defector – A North Korean soldier was shot five times by his former comrades as he crossed the demilitarised zone to defect to South Korea. The South Korean military were put on high alert for fear of a retaliatory attack which never emerged. The identity of the defector remains unknown, but doctors have confirmed that he has ‘enormous parasites’.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Lebanon Crisis – The political crisis is ongoing in Lebanon. Despite suggesting he would be returning to Lebanon imminently, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has yet to do so. He has been invited to France by President Macron, who is seeking to mediate in the crisis. Some have suggested that this could lead to a long-term exile for Hariri. Lebanon celebrates its national day on 22 November, there is the potential for protests and demonstrations on this day.
US Remembrance Day – Authorities in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania have advised those attending Remembrance Day Parade on 18 November of a “possible threat”. Those attending have been asked not to bring large bags. There is set to be a large local, state, and federal police presence at the event.
Chile Elections – Chileans are set to elect a new president on 19 November. A run-off vote will occur in December if no candidate gains more than 50 per cent of the vote. Security is to be stepped up with 900 members of the national police force to be deployed. Delays and disruption can be expected within the vicinity of polling stations.

Significant Dates & Events

18 November – Latvian National Day 18 November – Morocco Independence Day 18 November – Oman National Day 19 November – Maldives National Day 19 November – Monaco National Day 20 November – Farmer’s association to rally in Delhi, India 21 November – Anti-austerity protests due to take place across the UK 24 November – Myanmar National Day 24 November – Sikh festival of Guru Tegh Bahadur

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 46 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Top Tips on What to Do During an Earthquake

It is estimated that as many 500,000 earthquakes occur every year with 100,000 able to be felt by humans. In certain places, minor earthquakes occur almost constantly. As the map below shows, tectonic plates are located all over the world. The most famous and impactful area for earthquakes is the so-called ‘ring of fire’ in the Pacific Ocean; about 90 per cent of all the world’s earthquakes occur in this area.

Most earthquakes are natural occurrences but human development has had an impact. The construction of dams and the impact of fracking for gas are thought to cause earthquakes or at least increase their impact.

It has been estimated that on average, there are 18 major earthquakes every year (those registering 7.0-7.9 on the Richter scale) and one great earthquake (those register 8.0 and above). Unlike volcanoes or tropical storms, scientists have found it impossible, at this point, to predict when an earthquake will occur.

What to Expect

Small to Moderate Earthquakes

Seismic movements which are lower on the Richter Scale can occur across the world, including in places like the United Kingdom, which is not on or near any tectonic plates. These earthquakes do not represent an emergency risk. When such quakes occur, you can expect:

Shaking to occur for only a few seconds.
Lights to move and some minor movement of objects to occur inside buildings.
To feel a small amount of shaking under your feet if outside.
To hear a bang if very close to the epicentre

Large Earthquakes

The impact on larger earthquakes, which includes everything from 5.0 on the Richter Scale, largely depends on where they occur and at what depth. Their impact may be felt for several minutes. However, in general when they do occur, you can expect the following.

The ground to potentially shake violently, in some cases strong enough to knock you off your feet.
To probably feel shaking followed by a sea-like rolling motion.
Buildings may sway and the earthquake is likely to cause a roaring sound.
To feel swaying if in the upper floors of a high-rise building.
Furniture and fixings may be thrown across the room, especially if unsecured, and windows may break.
It is possible that fire systems will be triggered with sprinklers and alarms activated.
You can also expect lights and power to go off.

What to do during an earthquake if you are inside

The first thing to do during an earthquake tremor is to drop to your hands and knees so the earthquake does not knock you down. You should then cover your head and neck with your arms as protection from falling debris.

You should then look for cover, if you can move safely; a sturdy table is suitable, hold on to the legs so that it stays over you to offer protection from falling objects. If this is not available, crawl away from outside walls and next to inside walls away from windows or any fixtures or furniture which could fall on you. Remember: ‘drop, cover, and hold on’

If you are in bed when the earthquake occurs you should stay in bed and cover your head and neck with a pillow unless there is something overhead that could fall on you and cause injury. At night, it is difficult to see any hazards or debris which have emerged and attempting movement in the darkness may result in further injuries.

If you are in a lift get off at the next available floor and find cover.

Stay inside, do not rush to get outside and await the end of the tremors.

What to do during an earthquake if you are outside:

If you are outside when shaking occurs, get to open space away from buildings, street lights, bridges/flyovers and overhead wires. Once in the open, you should ‘drop, cover, and hold on’. Then await the end of tremors.

If you are in a moving vehicle during an earthquake:

If driving when tremors begin, stop as quickly and safely as you can and apply the handbrake. Be aware of areas of potential landslides. Avoid stopping near buildings, trees, bridges, overpasses, and overhead wires. Once the earthquake tremors cease, proceed cautiously, avoid roads, bridges, and other infrastructure which may have been damage by the earthquake.

If you are trapped during an earthquake:

If the worse happens and you become trapped it is important to remain calm and not move about or kick up dust. If you have a phone, try to use it to call for help. If possible, try tapping on a pipe or use a whistle so rescuers can locate you. Shouting should be a final measure taken as it is important to not inhale too much dust and debris.

If you are not trapped when tremors stop:

When shaking stops, leave the building if it is safe to do so and get to an open space away from any damaged areas.

If the building is undamaged, check for the smell of gas, turn it off at the main valve. If wiring is damaged turn that off at the main switch board. Check for fires and evacuate the building if they are many or too large to safely extinguish.

Monitor local media through any means for information and instruction.

Check for any injuries and give treatment (provided you are trained to do so). Then assist with rescues if it is safe to do so.

Be prepared for a tsunami in coastal areas, learn if the area you are in is usually impacted by post-earthquake tsunamis. A strong earthquake that lasts more than 20 seconds in a tsunami zone will mean evacuation is imperative. If this is the case, once shaking has stopped, move inland and to higher ground immediately and continue to monitor for local instruction or evacuations. If you can see the waves you are still too close. Remain on high ground, tsunami waves can last up to 8 hours or longer, only return when officials say it is safe to do so.

Maintain extreme caution in post-earthquake clean-up. Do not remove heavy debris alone and remember to use appropriate clothing and tools.

Be ready for aftershocks and be prepared to ‘drop, cover, and hold on’, should they occur.

Most earthquake-related injuries are caused by collapsing walls, objects falling, or glass shattering, rather than ground vibrations directly causing injury.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45

Headlines From This Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump presently in Vietnam as part of a five-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour has resulted in substantially enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. The Japanese, Korean and Chinese visits occurred without violent issues. Disruption to travel, however, is highly likely to occur in the locations he is yet to visit. Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila are the final locations to host the President’s tour.
Typhoon Damrey – Struck Vietnam as a Category Two storm through 03 to 05 November. Extremely high rainfall led to extensive flooding, particularly in central Vietnam, with at least 106 people being killed, and approximately 200 remaining missing. Initial estimates suggest that over $330 million of damage was caused, with over 116,000 homes suffering extensive damage.
Corruption Arrests in Saudi Arabia – A new anti-corruption committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, detained approximately 200 senior officials, including senior ministers and members of the House of Saud royal family. This marked a substantial departure from the norm within the Kingdom, issues within the royal family are generally resolved out of the public eye. Two senior princes also died, one in a helicopter crash, and one in mysterious circumstances, although these deaths cannot be directly linked to the apparent purge.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Resigned – The Lebanese Prime Minister, al-Harari, resigned whilst in Saudi Arabia, potentially triggering a crisis in the precariously balanced political structure of the country. Al-Harari alleged his resignation was due to the threat of assassination. His presence in Saudi Arabia has, however, led to speculation that he may have been entangled in the Kingdom’s corruption scandal, or otherwise pressured into resignation as part of a broader Saudi power-play in the region. There is a realistic probability that sectarian unrest in Lebanon will follow.
Liberian Elections Delayed – the Liberian Supreme Court delayed the second round of the Liberian presidential elections due to allegations of malpractice by the third-placed candidate. The basis of these allegations has yet to be established; international observers raised no issues. There is a possibility of unrest between the supporters of the three major parties. A new poll date has yet to be confirmed.
Catalan Officials Charged with Rebellion – Six senior former members of the Catalan regional government have been charged by the Spanish government with rebellion and sedition. The allegations centre to their activities in support of the illegal Catalan independence referendum. The former Catalan prime minister, Charles Puigdemont, remains in Brussels with an outstanding extradition request. Protests can be expected across Catalonia for the duration of court proceedings.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ASEAN Summit – The Association of South East Asian Nations is scheduled to meet between 13-15 November in Manila, the Philippines. The dates of the summit have been declared “non-working days” in Manila and the surrounding provinces. Extensive disruption should be expected to services, although major banks will remain open across the Metro Manila area. Substantially enhanced security measures and road closures should be expected.
Russia-Turkey Summit – Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are scheduled to conduct a summit in Sochi, Russia, concerning future economic cooperation, and military activities in Syria. The outcome of this summit is likely to have a substantial impact in the balance of power between the various military and paramilitary groups operating in Iraq and Syria.

Significant Dates & Events

11 November – Angolan independence day
12 November – Equatorial Guinea to hold general elections
12 November – Slovenian presidential elections
12 November – Anti-racism rally to be held in central Montreal
13 November – Mykonos Airport, Greece, to close until 29 November due to scheduled maintenance
13 November – Somaliland regional elections
14 November – Irish railway workers to conduct a 24 hour strike
15 November – Republic Day in northern Cyprus
15 November – Sikh festival, Guru Nanak’s birthday celebration
16 November – General election to be held in Tonga
17 November – Pakistan People’s Party due to hold protests in central Punjab

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 45 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.