Intelligence cut-off time 11:00 GMT 17th of October 2023

Whilst it remains almost certain that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will commit to a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, this is unlikely to occur within the next 24-48 hours.

The main factor contributing to the postponement is the recent revelation of President Biden’s visit to Israel for discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday 18 October. It is highly unlikely that the US will sponsor an IDF invasion while President Biden is within Israel due to the threat associated with Hezbollah retaliation from Lebanon, which will almost certainly be backed by the Iranian regime, or from one of the other militant groups operating out of the West Bank. It is estimated that Hezbollah alone has amassed a stock of over 150,000 rockets. While most of these rockets are crude and unguided munitions that range out only to 10-40km, Hezbollah also maintain a stock of more sophisticated Iranian-derived rocket and missile systems such as the Fateh-110 (250-300km), SCUD-B/C/D (300-550km) and the Zelzal 1/2 ballistic missiles (125-250km). Such weapon systems enable Hezbollah to target high-value targets such as Ben Gurion airport with a high degree of accuracy. While it is expected that Israel’s Iron Dome air defence system will detect and intercept the majority of rockets, there is a realistic possibility that Hezbollah could launch missile and rocket salvos large enough to overwhelm the air defence system.

Given the missile and rocket threat posed by Hezbollah and the fact Hamas have now likely fired the majority of their rockets, there is a realistic possibility that the IDF will be forced to reposition mobile elements of its Iron Dome system to counter the emerging threat in the north.

Iran has warned that its proxy forces will conduct “pre-emptive action” in response to Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Gaza, which will invariably include the use of Hezbollah forces. However, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will conduct any major attacks with President Biden in Israel for fear of a major US retaliation.

Moreover, it is more likely that Hezbollah and Iran will wait until Israel commits forces to Gaza as the IDF will have a considerable amount of its forces fixed in the south, offering a tactically advantageous position to open up a northern front that will almost certainly stretch IDF forces and complicate Israeli re-supply and sustainment. To counter Iran and its proxies’ threats, the US has moved its USS Gerald Ford led Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 12 into the Eastern Mediterranean and has deployed a second CSG led by the USS Eisenhower to the Mediterranean which is currently in the eastern Atlantic and is expected to enter the eastern Mediterranean in the next couple of days. The combined combat power of two US CSGs will provide Israel with overwhelming air superiority should the US enter into a conflict with Israel, with warnings already issued to Iran that the US will engage Iranian proxy forces. It is highly likely that Israel will delay a ground offensive until the USS Eisenhower is positioned in the eastern Mediterranean.

It is expected that Biden will discuss with Netanyahu the evacuation of civilians from the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing with Egypt. It is likely that Biden will demand that a humanitarian corridor is established before IDF forces enter Gaza, with Biden also forecasted to visit Egypt where he will likely use diplomatic pressure to demand the same from Egypt. It is likely that the IDF will want to commit forces sooner rather than later as any delay will afford Hamas and other militants to prepare defensive positions and mobilise forces. However, Israel is hugely dependent on US military aid which currently stands at approximately USD 4 billion per annum. It is unlikely that Israel has weapon stocks high enough to sustain military operations whilst maintaining enough weaponry to counter Hezbollah or deal with a wider conflict. Therefore, it is likely that Israel will have to submit to US requests in order to guarantee the delivery of future military aid and will not commit to a ground offensive until Biden has some reassurances from Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah, under orders from Iran will launch a pre-emptive attack on Israel prior to the arrival of President Biden. Such a move will provoke Israel into retaliating and committing to a ground offensive in Gaza before the Rafah crossing is opened and civilians are evacuated, causing an acute humanitarian crisis. This will undoubtedly provoke much international condemnation, resulting in anti-Israeli protests and rhetoric and potentially force the West to temper its support of Israel.

Whether you are considering an evacuation or seeking to continue operations while ensuring the safety of your team, we are here to assist.

For those seeking a secure exit from Israel, Solace Global offers comprehensive journey management services:

Cloudflare detected an unprecedented DDoS attack on August 25, 2023, reaching a peak of over 201 million requests per second, three times larger than Cloudflare’s previous record. The attack exploited a weakness in the HTTP/2 protocol and was executed by a modest botnet comprising 20,000 machines.

Cloudflare reported that the entire web experiences 1-3 billion requests per second, suggesting that using this method, attackers could concentrate the equivalent of the entire web’s volume of requests on a few specific targets. Similar attacks have also been observed by Google and AWS in recent weeks.

This vulnerability allows an attacker to deplete the victim’s server resources by repeatedly sending and canceling requests in rapid succession, ultimately impacting the targeted website or application.

CISA have added this vulnerability to its known exploit catalogue. https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2023/10/10/cisa-adds-five-known-vulnerabilities-catalog

Incorporating a comprehensive approach to cybersecurity is essential. This involves not only staying current with software updates but also implementing robust DDoS mitigation methods. By doing so, you establish a proactive defense mechanism, capable of swiftly identifying and neutralizing any attempts to exploit vulnerabilities.

In essence, a multi-faceted security strategy is essential for any organisation reliant on external web servers. Through diligent updates, particularly for HTTP/2-utilizing web services, and the implementation of robust DDoS mitigation measures, you fortify your business against potential disruptions, thereby safeguarding the availability of critical systems integral to your operations.

The news comes after the recent Defcon hacking conference where Marcello Salvati, a researcher affiliated with Rapid 7, gave an eye-opening talk that demonstrated a method for leveraging the “biggest transactional email service” and Cloudflare, effectively circumventing the safeguards of SPF (Sender Policy Framework) and DMARC (Domain-based Message Authentication, Reporting, and Conformance).

While the initial insights shared during the talk have seen some partial mitigation measures implemented, particularly with the use of Cloudflare workers and MailChannels, a disconcerting concern still persists.

Inclusion of the MailChannels SPF record may expose domains and users to impersonation risks. A recent solution has been introduced to address this concern. Given that a significant portion of the 2 million domains lacks these protective measures, it opens the door to widespread misuse of the MailChannels service.

The author highlights the absence of sender identity verification, allowing anyone to register on their website for a mere $80 and employ their “normal” SMTP relay to maliciously spoof customer domains.

Furthermore, another discovery reveals the adoption of a novel email service known as ARC, which inherently reduces spam scores.

Solace Cyber’s threat researchers, utilising SMTP, have validated these findings as genuine threats, emphasising the importance of organisations implementing countermeasures promptly.

In a recent incident, security experts at Truesec noticed Microsoft Teams messages originating from third-party accounts, delivering ZIP files that purported to be from the victims HR department.

Initially, the attack commenced with a social engineering tactic aimed at enticing the recipient to click on the .zip file, which contained an LNK (shortcut) file masquerading as a PDF document.

Upon execution, this file triggered a VBScript that initiated the download of a payload utilizing curl.exe and harnessed AutoIT in conjunction with a compiled AutoIT script. The outcome of this process was the detection of the file as DarkGate Malware by VirusTotal.

The malware supports a magnitude of malicious activities including remote access tooling, cryptocurrency mining, keylogging and a built-in stealer.

This particular phishing campaign is still in its early days.

Given the limited range of mitigation methods currently available and the probability that users have not been adequately trained to recognise this specific threat vector, they may be more susceptible to this tactic compared to traditional email-based attacks.

In an era marked by rapid technological advancements, the automotive industry is undergoing a transformative shift. With the advent of connected vehicles, autonomous driving, and integrated smart systems, vehicles have evolved from mere mechanical machines to sophisticated computers on wheels. While this evolution brings remarkable benefits, it also introduces a new frontier of challenges, primarily in the realm of cyber security. This blog explores the growing influence of cyber security threats on the automotive industry and the measures being taken to address these challenges.

Connected vehicles have become a symbol of convenience and innovation. However, the integration of internet connectivity into cars also presents a potential gateway for cyber attackers. Hackers can exploit vulnerabilities in infotainment systems, telematics, and communication protocols to gain unauthorised access to a vehicle’s network. This access could lead to unauthorised control over critical functions, jeopardising passenger safety.

The pursuit of autonomous driving has further intensified the need for robust cyber security. Autonomous vehicles rely on an array of sensors, cameras, and data-sharing mechanisms to navigate roads safely. Any compromise in the integrity of these systems could result in accidents or even intentional harm. Protecting these vehicles from hacking attempts is crucial to ensure public trust and safety in this transformative technology.

Connected vehicles generate an immense amount of data related to driving patterns, user preferences, and geolocation. This data is not only valuable for manufacturers but also for malicious actors seeking to exploit personal information for financial gain or other nefarious purposes. Ensuring the privacy of user data has become a significant concern, necessitating stringent data protection measures.

The automotive industry relies on a complex global supply chain, which can inadvertently introduce vulnerabilities. If even a single component or software module is compromised at any point in the supply chain, it could potentially expose the entire vehicle fleet to cyber threats. Collaborative efforts between manufacturers and suppliers are essential to establish a chain of trust and enhance cyber security resilience.

Recognising the severity of cyber security threats, the automotive industry has begun taking proactive measures. Collaboration between automakers, technology companies, and cyber security experts has led to the development of best practices, guidelines, and standards specifically tailored to the industry’s unique challenges. Organisations like the Automotive Information Sharing and Analysis Center (Auto-ISAC) have been established to facilitate information sharing and coordination among industry stakeholders.

To mitigate cyber security risks, manufacturers are increasingly adopting a “security by design” approach. This strategy involves integrating cyber security measures at every stage of a vehicle’s development lifecycle. From concept and design to manufacturing and maintenance, security considerations are embedded to create a holistic and robust cyber security framework.

As the automotive industry accelerates toward a future defined by connectivity and automation, the spectre of cyber security threats looms large. The intersection of technology and transportation has brought unprecedented conveniences and efficiencies, but it has also exposed vehicles to new forms of risk.

Organisational compute and infrastructure, such as classic on-premises server rooms, datacentres and cloud-based services are all subject to regular attack and the colocation of many services, often with network cross over between, has simply increased the scope and availability of a reachable threat surface.

By employing our Anticipate, Protect, and Respond strategy in the realm of cyber security, Solace Cyber has formulated a variety of service packages that can assist the industry in navigating this crossroad. These packages are built upon our core Real-time Risk Platform initially, scaling out to extend all the way up to our comprehensive safeguarding service suite of Solace Cyber Secure 360.

By acknowledging these challenges and collectively working towards innovative solutions we can build a safer and more secure automotive landscape for everyone.

Find out more about how Solace Cyber can support you on your cyber secure journey.

In the early hours of 30 August, the Gabonese Election Centre (CGE) announced that President Ali Bongo had won a third term in office, having received 64.27 percent vote share in Saturday’s general election. However, just after 05:00 local time, a group of senior officers from the Gabonese military announced on television channel, Gabon 24, that they had seized power with the full support of the Gabonese security and defence forces.​

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Introducing themselves as members of The Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions, the officials stated that the election results were cancelled, all borders were closed until further notice and state institutions – the government, the senate, the national assembly, the constitutional court and the election body – were dissolved. ​

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Following the announcement, domestic and regional sources reported gunfire could be heard in the capital Libreville. However, as the day progressed, the streets appeared calm, and crowds of  citizens peacefully took to the streets. Videos circulating on social media showed multiple instances of people celebrating and cheering, often in close proximity to the country’s armed forces. So far, there has been no signs of widespread protest or alarm. Several hours after the officers’ announcement, internet access also appeared to be restored for the first time since Saturday’s vote. ​

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The Gabonese government has yet to make an official statement, with President Bongo reportedly under house arrest, surrounded by his family and doctors.​

Ahead of the coup, there was significant concern over potential unrest following Saturday’s presidential, parliamentary and legislative elections that the opposition alleged were plagued by fraud. Questions over the election’s transparency were re-enforced by the lack of international observers, the suspension of foreign media broadcasts, the decision to cut internet service, and the imposing of a nationwide curfew.​

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President Ali Bongo and his father, Omar Bongo, have ruled Gabon since 1967, but frustrations with the political dynasty had been growing for several years ahead of Saturday’s election. The Central African nation is a major oil producer, so much so that it is a member of OPEC, as well as being a major exporter of uranium and magnesium. Indeed, the country is home to over one-quarter of the world’s proven magnesium reserves. However, Bongo has done little to channel its oil and other wealth towards the population of some 2.3 million people, a third of whom live in poverty. ​

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This is also not the first attempt in recent history to overthrow Bongo as in January 2019 he and the Gabonese government were able to foil an attempted military coup after soldiers briefly seized the state radio station and broadcasted a message saying Bongo, who had suffered a stroke months earlier, was no longer fit for office.

The strength of Gabon’s extractive-based economy means that it is Africa’s third most wealthy country by GDP per capita. However, with large swathes of the country still living in poverty, it is highly likely that the state has failed to transfer much of this wealth to ordinary citizens. It is likely that economic disparities have been one of the major triggers for the coup. This is likely supported by the lack of public resistance and the fact that celebrations have been seen on the streets of Libreville and other major population centres across the country.​

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Furthermore, the coup has yet to be characterised by anti-French rhetoric in a similar vein to the recent West and Central African coups in countries like Niger and Mali. However, the coup is almost certainly another problem for Paris in Africa, with multiple French companies operating in the country. Unlike the other coups in Africa, it is doubtful that the Gabonese coup leaders will seek Russian support in favour of maintaining Western relations. Gabon has traditionally had weak ties with Russia and unlike much of Africa, has not been threatened with major insurgencies and security issues. Moreover, Gabon was one of the countries in Africa that voted against Russia at the United Nations in the 2022 resolution on Ukraine.​

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Economically, the coup is almost certainly going to lead to price volatility in global oil and magnesium markets. Gabon has strong economic links with both France, and increasingly with China, and it is a major exporter of commodities to these nations. Reports indicate that some foreign companies like the French mining company, Eramet, have already suspended operations in Gabon in response to the coup. It is therefore highly likely that both France and China will be looking for the political situation to be resolved quickly, and there is a realistic possibility of diplomatic involvement from both Paris and Beijing. ​

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In the immediate future, it is unlikely that any major protests or armed clashes will break out as the Gabonese security forces are seemingly onside, and most indications suggest the public is too. The turning on of the internet was likely a move to win over the public as well as signal a different approach to governance than the Bongo regime. However, this also presents an increased potential for demonstrations and protests, both in favour and against the coup, to occur as information is spread on social media. There is a realistic possibility of sustained demonstrations which will likely lead to disruption in major population hubs. Borders will likely remain closed for upcoming days, but if scenes remain calm, borders are likely to reopen quicker than seen in Niger and Mali.

On the morning of 26 July, multiple domestic and regional sources reported that a potential coup was underway in Niamey, Niger. Early indications suggested that the Presidential Guard had blocked the entrance to the Presidential Palace, and detained President Mohamed Bazoum. Concurrently, government ministries next to the palace were blockaded, with those inside, including the Minister of the Interior, detained.

By early afternoon, the Niger Armed Forces (FAN) and National Guard had both deployed in the vicinity of the Presidential Palace. The FAN and the Presidential office both released statements asserting that the ongoing coup attempt was being driven by “anti-republican” elements and gave the Presidential Guard an “ultimatum” to stand down and release President Bazoum, or face being attacked. Unverified social media reports have subsequently described armoured FAN columns entering Niamey. Further unverified reports later emerged of roadblocks appearing across the city.

The conditions in Niamey remained calm initially, however, as the situation developed businesses were reputedly told to close and residents were ordered to stay at home. Operations at Diori Hamani International Airport currently remain unaffected, with flight tracking data showing that both inbound and outbound flights were operating as normal.

Since 2020, several coups have taken place across the Sahel region, most notably in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso. The key driver for instability has been the inability of central governments to guarantee internal security from a myriad of insurgencies and terrorist actors. Niger has been increasingly afflicted by the instability affecting the wider region. In the southeast, Niger is battling incursions from Boko Haram and in the west of the country, the government is attempting to contain threats from Islamic State’s Sahel Province.
Due to the external and internal threats posed by these actors, Niger has become a major operating base for Western nations in the region. Indeed, both France and the USA utilise the country as a base for operations in the wider Sahel.
This relationship has grown in significance for Western governments as relations with other states in the region, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, have broken down in the wake of their own respective coups, leading to the expulsion of French forces.

Further strengthening this relationship is the fact that Niger’s President was democratically elected in 2021 and is one of the region’s few remaining democratically elected heads of state. However, in February 2023 protests erupted in the capital, Niamey, with demonstrators expressing their dissatisfaction with a sustained French military presence in the country, with many believing that the foreign presence was either ineffective or had exacerbated security concerns.

At the time of writing, there has been no official statement from Presidential Guard. However, given the recent regional trends, it is highly likely that this attempted coup has transpired due to concerns regarding the deteriorating security of Niger.

This is further evidenced by the fact that the Presidential Guard has also apprehended the Minister of the Interior, who is the person ultimately responsible for policing and internal security in Niger. The recent uptick in attacks near the borders with Burkina Faso and Mali likely provided the catalyst for the current situation.

As the situation develops, it is almost certain that key transport routes and critical locations across Niamey will be seized by rival forces. This will include Niamey’s key river crossings, which connect the main part of the city on the eastern bank of the Niger River to its western parts, the international airport, and state TV and radio offices. At the time of writing, it is believed that President Mohamed Bazoum remains in detention.

The success of the ongoing attempted coup remains to be seen. Initial signs suggest that the FAN and National Guard have remained loyal to President Bazoum and are willing to fight. If this remains the case, it is unlikely that the coup succeeds due to the disparity in military firepower between the two sides. This result would ultimately see the Presidential Guard purged.

However, should the coup succeed, civil unrest, both in favour and against, will highly likely occur. A transitional military council will likely take over the government and immediately revise the stationing of foreign militaries in Niger. The removal of the last remaining Western forces in the region will likely create a security vacuum, that will almost certainly benefit the insurgencies and terrorist groups in Niger and the wider region.

A critical pre-authentication vulnerability in NetScaler ADC (formerly Citrix ADC) and NetScaler Gateway (formerly Citrix Gateway) is currently being exploited by threat actors who have been able to execute code with zero credentials.

A critical pre-authentication vulnerability in the NetScaler ADC (formerly Citrix ADC) and NetScaler Gateway (formerly Citrix Gateway) was discovered in the first week of July. This vulnerability is currently being exploited by threat actors and has been tracked as CVE-2023-3519, which carries a 9.8 CVSS.

This has led Citrix to issue updates for affected products – it’s recommended that all those affected install the updates immediately.

The vulnerability allows an attacker with zero credentials to execute code. There is no need for an attacker to worry about MFA in this scenario as its pre-authentication.  

The following supported versions of NetScaler ADC and NetScaler Gateway are affected by the vulnerabilities: 

Note: NetScaler ADC and NetScaler Gateway version 12.1 is now End Of Life (EOL) and is vulnerable. 

The vulnerability, which is tracked as CVE-2023-27997 is a pre-authentication remote code execution vulnerability, which if left unpatched, could lead to critical organisational risk.

The SSL-VPN vulnerability would allow an attacker with zero credentials to execute arbitrary code during the pre-authentication stage. This means, the attacker could circumnavigate MFA.

The MOVEit transfer application used to transfer files has a zero-day vulnerability in the form of an SQL injection vulnerability. This in turn allows the adversary to drop a web shell on the host inside the MOVEit wwwroot directory. After which time, the attacker could then download any file within MOVEit and install a backdoor.

A known breach involving Zellis, a supplier of IT services for payroll and human resources says a “small number” of organisations have been affected.

The ransomware group “Cl0p” has posted on their ransomware site that they are exploiting the MOVEit vulnerability. Microsoft have also attributed the attack to Cl0p. The recent attacks do not show signs of encryption, although there is potential for this to occur as well as lateral spread.

The group states on their Darknet page that they’ll post the names of the organisations compromised on June 14th 2023 if the targeted organisation hasn’t already contacted them. In the past 24 hours the BBC, Boots and British Airways have confirmed they’ve been impacted.

The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre said it was “monitoring the situation” and urged organisations using the compromised software to carry out security updates. As of today, results from internet reconnaissance show that there are 127 instances in the UK of the MoveIT Transfer application and 1853 in the US.

Due to the growing number of compromised organisations and the current supply chain spread the impact is still yet to be fully materialised.

Organisations without the vendor’s latest patch against CVE-2023-34362 should assume breach and conduct investigative and remediation efforts where the service is publicly accessible.

The vulnerability has been exploited by the threat group APT28, also known as Fancy Bear, Sofacy, and STRONTIUM since April 2022.

It was initially reported to Microsoft by the Ukrainian CERT. According to Microsoft, “a Russia-based threat actor” exploited the vulnerability in targeted attacks against several European organizations in government, transportation, energy, and military sectors.

Currently 15 organisations are believed to have been targeted or breached using CVE-2023-23397.

Solace Cyber Head of Incident Response believes with high certainty that this particular vulnerability will be used by other threat actors – equating to a vast quantity of attacks in the coming days to weeks.

As of 16/03/2023 proof of concept code has been developed by security researchers and it is likely to be used in subsequent attacks by other threat actors.

The attack involves the attacker sending an Outlook note or task to the victim, triggering the notification sound file mechanism, which sends an NTLM negotiation request to the attacker-controlled SMB share. The threat actors accomplish this using extended MAPI properties that contain UNC paths. The vulnerability can be exploited with a simple, specially crafted email, even if the victim doesn’t open the item.

However, it’s worth noting that this vulnerability cannot be exploited with Outlook for iOS, Mac, or Outlook for Android. Nevertheless, it affects all Windows versions of Outlook that are currently supported.  

Note: Those at a higher risk include remote workers due to home firewalls that do not block SMB traffic.

This can be done by emailing all end users to advise a manual update of Microsoft Office (click-to-run) or updating via alternative methods. If you require assistance with auto-patching solace cyber can assist.

Preferably this is run in audit mode only so that forensic data can be reviewed. If the script produces results it is recommended that you review the UNC paths in the outlook items to ensure no exploitation has occurred. 

As of 4th October 2022, Microsoft have confirmed that two Zero-day vulnerabilities affect Microsoft Exchange Server 2013, Exchange Server 2016, and Exchange Server 2019. Microsoft have stated that Exchange Online customers do not need to take any action, however if you have a Hybrid Exchange infrastructure this advice still applies.

Further updates and details on the potential vulnerability can be found here

In addition to Microsoft guidance, Solace Cyber recommend that the mitigation be further tightened by altering the URL block string:

.*autodiscover\.json.*Powershell.*

Solace Cyber are offering an initial consultation to determine if a compromise has already occurred and can action any implementation required to secure your operations.

This update is correct as of 12.23 GMT on 4th October 2022. The situation continues to develop rapidly, so please contact the team for an initial conversation with the latest advice.

On 15 August, violence erupted at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had been scheduled to release the results of the Kenyan general election. Live footage from the venue showed physical altercations breaking out between attendees, with military
personnel intervening to break up the violence.

Earlier on 15 August the IEBC had announced a delay in releasing the results, although did not specify a reason for the delay. Separately, four commissioners of the IEBC held a press conference at the Serena Hotel in Nairobi, in which they stated that they could not “take ownership of the results” due to concerns over their opaqueness. As the violent scenes emerged and news broke of the division within the IEBC, it
was announced that riot police across the country had been placed on standby, with Kenya’s highest bishop calling for calm and peace to prevail.

In the days since the 9 August election, the IEBC has been verifying the vote tallies provided by the country’s polling stations. In this interim period, both main presidential candidates have alluded to voting irregularities and of fighting the result in courts. Meanwhile, the delay between voting and the announcement of a result had only led to further speculation and disinformation around the legitimacy
of the vote.
Around 20 minutes after the initial chaotic scenes at the Bomas of Kenya, and despite four of the seven IEBC commissioners stating they could not back the results, the IEBC announced that William Ruto had won the election with 7,176,141 votes – amounting to 50.49 percent of the total valid votes. The pre-election favourite, Raila Odinga, received 6,942,930 votes – representing 48.85 percent of the votes cast.

In 2007, post election violence resulted in more than 1,500 civilian deaths, whilst in 2017 at least fifty were killed and the election result was seen as so contentious that the country’s Supreme court ruled the vote should be re-run. Odinga has run for president on five occasions and has lost each time he has run.
He has also disputed the final election result following each loss, which set the conditions of suspicion and mistrust, and ultimately precipitated previous outbreaks of post-election violence. Given that Odinga was seen as the favourite to win the Presidency during the 2022 election, the closeness of the declared result and the inconsistency from the IEBC on 15 August, it is highly likely that he will once more
attempt to contest the election results.

Regardless of whether Odinga officially disputes the result, it is highly likely that his supporters will rally against the result. Any such unrest is highly likely to become violent. The city of Kisumu, which is home to a large pro-Odinga voting bloc, has already begun to see protests break out against alleged vote rigging, whilst in the Kibera area of Nairobi there are reports that riots have begun to break out. Further
unrest is likely to remain centred on the political centres of gravity in Nairobi, with the State House, Central Business District, and Serena Hotel all probable areas of unrest in the short term.

It is noteworthy that this was the first election in which there was no candidate from Kenya’s largest tribe, the Kikuyu. As a result, if election violence and unrest begins to spread across the country, there is a realistic possibility that it will avoid the traditional split along ethnic and tribal lines. Consequently, post-election violence may occur more widely across Kenya, as it would not be centred on tribal population centres, although it may be less extreme than levels observed during previous elections in which a Kikuyu candidate was participating.

Our team of risk management specialists and intelligence analysts, combined with on-the-ground security support from our global partner network can help secure your operations.

Learn more about how we can secure your operations