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Coup Attempt Reported in Madagascar

Madagascar Faces Political Crisis as Coup Attempt Unfolds

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 11:30 BST 12 OCTOBER 2025

On the morning of 12 October, multiple domestic and regional sources indicated that a potential coup was underway in Madagascar. At 09:10 local time, the Presidency of the Republic of Madagascar released a statement declaring, “An attempt to seize power illegally and by force, contrary to the Constitution and to democratic principles, is currently underway.”

Soon after, CAPSAT, an elite military unit that was instrumental during the 2009 political crisis in Madagascar and helped President Andry Rajoelina rise to power, released a video stating that the Madagascan Armed Forces (MAF) are now managed from their command centre. This effectively places operational control of the country’s armed forces under CAPSAT, with General Demosthène Pikulas reportedly appointed as head of the MAF.

The Malagasy National Gendarmerie also acknowledged certain abuses within its ranks during the anti-government protest and declared that all orders will now come solely from their headquarters, emphasising solidarity and collaboration among the divisions of the armed forces. The National Police also released a statement, reaffirming its commitment to the population.

On the night of 11 October, former Prime Minister Christian Louis Ntsay, whose office was terminated by Rajoelina on 29 September following the anti-government protests, and Mamy Ravatomanga (Malagasy businessman) were listed on a private flight out of Ivato International Airport (TNR). Unverified reports suggest that the president has fled the State House and may have also been on the flight, even though not officially listed.

These events follow protests on Saturday, 11 October, during which CAPSAT called on other military units to “refuse orders to shoot your friends” and “[d]o not obey orders from your superiors. Point your weapons at those who order you to fire on your comrades in arms because they will not take care of our families if we die”.

Soldiers were allegedly ordered to open fire on protesters, but instead reportedly joined them. Videos circulating on social media show additional military personnel participating in the protests on 11 October. Local media reported that there was an exchange of fire between CAPSAT troops and pro-government security forces in which a protester and a CAPSAT soldier appeared to be killed.

Conditions in Antananarivo and nationwide currently appear calm on 12 October, and there are no verified reports of clashes. Gatherings have been reported in Place du 13 Mai (13 May Square). While security forces are present, the atmosphere is reportedly peaceful. Speakers reportedly include CAPSAT officials.

One witness reported three people injured after shots were fired along a road to the CAPSAT barracks on 12 October. Other witnesses reported no signs of ongoing clashes. The current situation is highly dynamic and may change as events develop.

Prime Minister Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo, a military general appointed by Rajoelina after he dismissed his predecessor, stated that the government is “fully ready to listen and engage in dialogue with all factions – youth, unions or the military”.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

This almost certainly constitutes the most significant threat to President Rajoelina’s rule since the disputed 2023 re-election, with the military unit that installed him in 2009 now attempting to oust him. While it is currently unclear to what extent CAPSAT has seized control of the government, the lack of statements from Rajoelina likely confirms reports that he has fled the country.

A previous coup took place in Madagascar in 2009 following a political crisis driven by tensions between President Marc Ravalomanana and opposition forces led by Rajoelina, then mayor of Antananarivo. Following months of protests and clashes, soldiers stormed and seized the Ambohitsorohitra Presidential Palace in March, forcing Ravalomanana to transfer power to a military council, after which the military junta formally handed over power to Rajoelina.

Following the coup, many of Ravalomanana’s supporters refused to accept the legitimacy of Rajoelina’s new government and staged demonstrations in the capital, to which security forces cracked down, resulting in at least 30 to 40 deaths, according to some estimates, in the immediate weeks after the coup. Prominent supporters of Ravalomanana were detained or forced into hiding, and journalists and media critics of the new leadership were censored or attacked. The situation was finally resolved after nine months, with a power-sharing agreement put in place in November 2009.

Another coup was attempted in November 2010 following factional divisions within the military; fighting broke out in Antananarivo, leaving several people dead before loyalist forces regained control.

Significant economic disruptions took place. Rajoelina announced a freeze of all mining contracts with foreign companies due to their alleged failure to pay the required fees and royalties. Major partners such as the World Bank, IMF, EU, and US, suspended aid or downgraded relations, causing foreign aid to drop by over 60 per cent between 2008 and 2010. The tourist sector, a major component of Madagascar’s economy, was severely hit. Hotels, tour operators, and related businesses experienced declines in revenue, triggering extensive layoffs from the hospitality industry and informal sectors that depended on tourism, deepening economic hardship and exacerbating poverty rates nationwide.

Following the ongoing coup, continued instability and protests are highly likely. Rajoelina has seen sporadic counterdemonstrations among supporters in Antananarivo, and these will likely be motivated to engage in pro-Rajoelina rallies in the capital. The military, which is currently attempting to restore order in the country, will highly likely respond to demonstrations with forceful crackdowns, which could trigger further unrest.

The broader protest movement, however, had Rajoelina’s resignation as one of its primary demands. There is a realistic possibility that the widespread Gen Z-led demonstrations will subside following the coup. CAPSAT’s apparent siding with protesters was almost certainly a calculated move to bring an end to the ongoing unrest. Furthermore, access to protest organiser Gen Z Madagascar’s Facebook page is currently restricted, something that could prevent widespread demonstrations from being organised.

However, the 2009 coup exacerbated economic difficulties, a spark for the current wave of unrest, and a further worsening of living conditions will likely increase the risk of unrest.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Madagascar

  • Shelter in place until the situation becomes clearer.
  • Avoid all major government or buildings, military barracks, universities, and police facilities. Reassess travel to Madagascar.
  • Allocate additional time for all road travel in Antananarivo and other major cities in Madagascar. Expect increased checkpoints by security forces.
  • Plan for potential internet and communications disruptions; ensure you have emergency contacts saved on your phone and plan any potential travel routes. Emergency contacts should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of potential unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

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Heightened Security Risk
Ahead of October 7 Anniversary

Second Anniversary of October 7 Hamas Attack Raises Security Concerns

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 06 OCTOBER 2025

The second anniversary of the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel that precipitated the ongoing conflict in Gaza falls on 7 October 2025. The first anniversary of the attack in 2024 coincided with several notable security developments. In Israel, the Yemen-based Houthis, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, and Hamas launched joint missile and rocket attacks targeting large cities, including Tel Aviv, injuring 12. Also in Israel, large-scale anti-government protests were held to mark the anniversary, with tens of thousands of people in attendance in Tel Aviv and other cities.

Protests were also recorded in several large Western European, Middle Eastern, and American cities. These continued in the days following the anniversary, and particularly on 13 October, the anniversary of the start of the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip following the attack.

Several terrorism-related arrests were also carried out by authorities ahead of the first anniversary of the attack. For example, in Canada, a Pakistani citizen was arrested and subsequently extradited to the US for allegedly planning an attack on behalf of the Islamic State (IS) at a Jewish community centre in New York City on 7 October 2024. More recently, on 1 October 2025, German authorities stated that they had detained three suspected Hamas sympathisers in Berlin, for allegedly planning attacks on Jewish places of worship to coincide with the attack’s second anniversary.

In 2025, several large-scale protests have taken place in the days preceding the anniversary. These have been driven by the detention, in early October, of the vessels of the ‘Global Sumud Flotilla’ by the Israeli military as it attempted to reach Gaza. Violent demonstrations have been recorded in Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Spain, with several cases of vandalism and direct action aimed at shutting down transport in large cities.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The anniversary of the 7 October attack will likely result in an increased risk of civil unrest and terrorism, particularly in Western Europe. This will highly likely be particularly severe in the countries that have had recent large-scale ‘Global Sumud Flotilla’ protests, particularly Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the UK, as protest organisers seek to maximise pressure on their governments and capitalise on the large attendance during the previous demonstrations.

Civil unrest is highly likely to consist of both large-scale demonstrations and small-scale targeted direct actions meant to affect local transport and services. The former are highly likely to target high-visibility areas like the vicinity of Israeli diplomatic offices, local government buildings, and the headquarters of companies perceived to be supporting the Israeli war effort.

A common tactic seen in previous protests is the blockade of main roadways, such as the ring roads that surround most large European cities. In terms of direct action, protesters may seek to carry out targeted acts of vandalism against private and public assets, and particularly company offices, or blockades of public transport hubs, such as train and metro stations and airports. While lower, the threat of more sophisticated acts aimed at causing disruptions, such as the targeting of electrical infrastructure or the use of drones to disrupt airport operations, cannot be ruled out.

The increased likelihood of terrorism on 7 October is driven by the date’s symbolic importance. In addition to the thwarted plot in Germany in early October 2025, there have been several foiled or successful terrorist attacks in Europe and North America, which have coincided with notable dates associated with Judaism or Israeli history. This most recently occurred with the 2 October Manchester synagogue stabbing attack on Yom Kippur, which killed two people and was perpetrated by a highly likely self-radicalised “lone wolf” inspired by extremist Islamist ideology.

While 7 October 2025 remains the most high-risk date for both civil unrest and terrorism, the threat is likely to remain elevated in the short term following the attack anniversary. Protests are highly likely to occur on the 10-13 October period, the first weekend following the anniversary and the second anniversary of the beginning of the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Moreover, ongoing significant developments in negotiations between Hamas and Israel are highly likely to serve as triggers for demonstrations.


Travel and Safety Guidance during Heightened Global Security Risk

  • Avoid the vicinity of diplomatic offices, government buildings, and places of worship due to higher threats of civil unrest and terrorism.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to depart.
  • If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and withdraw on foot.
  • Monitor local media for updates on planned protests and disruptions. Allocate additional time for road travel in large urban areas, including to airports.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from authorities. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

Alert+

Youth-Led Protests Escalate Across Morocco

Protests Spread Across Morocco Over Jobs, Healthcare, and Corruption

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 14:00 BST 02 OCTOBER 2025

Youth-led demonstrations have been ongoing since 27 September across several cities in Morocco, with demonstrators demanding better education, employment opportunities, and healthcare in response to a perceived failure of government funding. Protesters have chanted slogans including “we want hospitals, not stadiums” and “the people want an end to corruption”. The protests have been organised by an anonymous online youth group, calling itself “Gen Z 212”, which has mobilised supporters through social media platforms such as Discord, TikTok, and Instagram.

Demonstrations were initially relatively peaceful, occurring across Rabat, Marrakesh, and Casablanca. On 30 September, they escalated into clashes in Tiznit, Inzegane, Ait Amira, Oujda, and Temara. In Ait Amira and Inzegane, demonstrators set several police vehicles alight and burned down a bank while protesters threw stones at security forces in Tiznit and Oujda. Security forces responded forcefully, arresting nearly 200 people and deploying water cannon in several cities. Notably, in Oujda, a protester was hit by a police minivan, with footage of the incident being widely shared across social media.

Protests continued on 1 October in several locations, including Agadir, Rabat, Tetouan, Tangier, Casablanca, and Marrakesh. At least two people were killed in Lqliâa, near Agadir, after security forces fired on protesters with live ammunition when they allegedly attempted to raid the Royal Gendarmerie Centre. According to local reporting, protesters aimed to seize the weapons, ammunition, and equipment stored inside.

The government responded with a statement stating it “listens to and understands the social demands” of the protesters and was “ready to respond positively and responsibly” to find a solution.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The protests, Morocco’s largest in years, come amid widespread youth frustrations with unemployment, education, and healthcare. According to the national statistics agency, Morocco has an unemployment rate of 12.8 per cent, with youth unemployment standing at 35.8 per cent, and 19 per cent among graduates. The protests have targeted the government, which is perceived as neglecting public services while investing billions of dollars into football infrastructure ahead of hosting the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations and co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup.

The catalyst for the public anger was the deaths of eight pregnant women in the maternity ward of a public hospital in Agadir following caesarean operations in September, which had initially sparked smaller-scale protests. According to the World Health Organisation, Morocco has fewer than eight doctors per 10,000 people, far below the recommended 25.

The government’s appeal for dialogue is unlikely to appease protesters in the short term. The civil unrest likely constitutes a culmination of public anger after years of neglect in public services, a state of affairs unlikely to be quickly remedied. The government statement defended the security forces’ crackdown, praising the “balanced reaction of security authorities in line with relevant legal procedures”. This will highly likely further inflame the unrest, with the van ramming being widely shared across social media. The further deaths of protesters on 1 October will almost certainly add to protester anger, likely sustaining the civil unrest.

The Gen Z 212 movement, which emerged in the weeks prior, has rapidly gained traction across social media. The “212” almost certainly refers to Morocco’s country code, suggesting that organisers view themselves as part of a broader youth-driven movement. The demonstrations share key traits with other Gen Z-led protests in the region: mobilisation through online platforms, an explicitly leaderless structure, and a lack of formal ties to political parties.

These protests are highly likely inspired by similar youth movements, including the recent Nepalese unrest that overthrew the government, as well as ongoing mobilisation across Africa, notably in Kenya and, most recently, Madagascar. It is highly likely that the global surge in youth protests will lead to further civil unrest across many other African countries, where economic frustrations, such as unemployment and a rising cost of living, are similarly felt among the population, particularly Gen Z.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Morocco

  • Avoid all major government buildings, universities, and police facilities in Morocco. Reassess travel to Morocco.
  • Allocate additional time for all road travel in Rabat and other urban centres in Morocco.
  • Plan for potential internet and communications disruptions; ensure you have emergency contacts saved on your phone and plan any potential travel routes. Emergency contacts should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from authorities. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

Alert+

Protests in Madagascar Escalate Amid Power Cuts

Protests Erupt in Antananarivo Over Water and Electricity Cuts

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 10:30 BST 26 SEPTEMBER 2025

On 24 September, demonstrations broke out in Antananarivo over persistent water and electricity cuts, with outages often lasting more than 12 hours. Several groups of approximately 100 protesters gathered in multiple locations early in the day and attempted to reach the meeting point in the Ambohijatovo district. According to news reports and social media footage, the protests drew mostly young demonstrators, and no senior political figures were reported among the crowds. Protesters flew Malagasy flags alongside flags of the Straw Hat Jolly Roger from the Anime One Piece, a protest symbol increasingly used by youth-led protest movements globally, including recently in Nepal.

Demonstrations quickly escalated, with reports of fires and roadblocks in areas such as Analamahitsy, with protesters setting fire to several gondola transport stations and the Air Mauritius office. Looters targeted several shops, banks, and appliance stores, while the homes of three politicians allied with President Andry Rajoelina were also attacked. Unrest was also reported at the offices of the national water and electricity company.

Security forces deployed tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse protesters. Several journalists have reportedly been injured, and unconfirmed reports by the capital’s main hospital suggest that at least five people have been killed, all with gunshot wounds.

The protests have led to severe disruptions. Several schools in Antananarivo have closed for the remainder of the week. Approximately 100 students from a French high school were stranded on the evening of 25 September, forbidden from leaving due to security concerns. Access to Antananarivo International Airport (TNR / FMMI) was partially disrupted. While operations have not stopped, a flight from Paris to Antananarivo was diverted to Réunion Island.

A day before the protests, the local government banned demonstrations, citing concerns over civil unrest. A large gathering of security forces had been present in Antananarivo from 0530 local time, cordoning off certain areas. In response to the unrest, authorities imposed a nighttime curfew in Antananarivo, effective from 1900 25 September to 0500 26 September. According to unverified social media reports, the government is set to cut access to the internet from 1400, although this is unconfirmed and has been disputed.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Madagascar is one of the world’s poorest countries. According to a 2022 report from the World Bank, 75.2 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line. Poverty rates have remained high over the past decade, with rural poverty decreasing marginally while urban poverty has almost doubled. Many households suffer from overlapping deprivations in health, education, sanitation, and infrastructure.

​The poor economic situation is exacerbated by Madagascar’s high vulnerability to environmental risks, including cyclones and droughts. Damage from four tropical storms in 2022 was estimated to have cost as much as 5 per cent of Madagascar’s GDP.

The protests have been in line with other Gen Z-led protest movements in Africa. The movement gained momentum on social media, which was used to mobilise protests, coordinate meeting points, and share live updates.

Smaller demonstrations were also observed in provincial towns like Toamasina, Antsirabe, Toliara, and Antsiranana, likely reflecting wider discontent with the incumbent government.

The lack of political figures among the protesters highlights the grassroots nature of the movement. The use of Straw Hat Jolly Roger, which was widely used in the recent Nepalese protests which deposed the government, suggests a broader Gen Z-focused sentiment and the potential desire of a far more radical intent to likewise overthrow the government.

There is a realistic possibility that the government’s strict measures to curtail the protests will succeed. While protesters defied the protest ban on 25 September, the demonstrators were largely made up of relatively small groups. The authorities will likely impose internet and social media restrictions to stop protesters from being able to mobilise. This will also likely limit the circulation of footage of excessive force, which has the capacity to further fuel anti-government sentiment.

The government’s reaction to demonstrations, particularly security forces’ use of force, is highly likely to be perceived as excessive. If footage spreads across social media of security forces using live ammunition against protesters, this could significantly inflame demonstrations, despite a lack of leadership. The rhetoric of protest organisers indicates broader anti-government sentiment, which could escalate unrest motivated by more radical objectives.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Madagascar

  • Avoid all major government buildings, universities, and police facilities in Antananarivo. Reassess travel to Madagascar.
  • Allocate additional time for all road travel in Antananarivo and other major cities in Madagascar.
  • Plan for potential internet and communications disruptions; ensure you have emergency contacts saved on your phone and plan any potential travel routes. Emergency contacts should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

Alert+

Far-Right Rally and Counterprotests Planned in London

Central London to Face Disruption Amid Far-Right and Counterprotests

Intelligence cut off: 12:00 BST 12 SEPTEMBER 2025

On 13 September, a large-scale far-right demonstration is scheduled to be held in central London. The “Unite the Kingdom” event was organised by several British far-right figures, including prominent activist Tommy Robinson. It will also involve the participation of several right-wing and far-right activists, influencers and politicians from continental Europe and from the United States.

The demonstration will begin with a march, setting off from Stamford Street in Southwark at 11:30 local time, continuing in the Waterloo area and crossing the Thames over Westminster Bridge. The protesters will then proceed to Parliament Square and finally to Whitehall. According to local media, attendees have been advised to travel to the London Bridge, Southwark, and Blackfriars stations, ahead of assembling in Stamford Street.

Joint counterdemonstrations have been organised by activist groups like Stand Up to Racism, which have also planned transport services for participants coming from other parts of Britain. The “March Against Fascism” event is expected to start at 12:00 local time in Russel Square, and will continue towards Whitehall via Holborn and the Strand, arriving in the area from the Trafalgar Square side (the opposite end of Whitehall from Parliament Square).

A previous “Unite the Kingdom” demonstration, in October 2024, drew an estimated 20,000 people, with approximately the same number of counter protesters. Projected figures for the 13 September march predict a significantly higher attendance. UK media states that approximately 1,000 police officers will be deployed to control the two marches on 12 September.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The two planned events will likely exacerbate security threats and result in disruption during the day. The marches are scheduled to begin on opposite sides of the Thames and converge in Whitehall. While the Metropolitan Police will likely be able to secure the two marches’ route and prevent the two sides from coming into contact in Whitehall, there is a realistic possibility of occasional clashes between dispersed groups of protesters throughout the day, and particularly near public transport hubs that both marches’ attendees will likely have to use to reach the assembly points.

Note that several major football games will be held in London on 13 September. This will likely further stretch the resources of the Metropolitan Police and is likely to further exacerbate the threat of dispersed violence and clashes during the day, with public transport hubs again being particularly at risk.

The threat of clashes is likely to be highest before 11:00 local time and in the late afternoon, after the end of the rallies and the football games.

Finally, there is a remote possibility of more serious political violence occurring in connection with the event. While not directly linked with it, the march is scheduled to take place only days after the assassination of a prominent American right-wing political commentator. The killing has resulted in a surge in calls for political violence on English-speaking social media, targeting prominent right-wing and left-wing figures, as well as activists.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Central London During Unrest

  • Avoid Whitehall, as well as the routes of the two marches in central London.
  • Allocate additional time for all travel in central London.
  • Reconsider using public transport, particularly in Zone 1, if possible.
  • Avoid carrying flags or other national, political or religious symbols.
  • Expect longer police and ambulance response times during the day.
  • Monitor the Transport for London official site for reports on possible disruptions to public transport.
  • If caught in a protest, try to move away if it is safe to do so, and always abide by authority directions.
  • If you are unable to leave, take precautions to minimise risks. These include moving away from hard barriers, remaining upright, and moving with and not against the crowd.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support.
  • Ensure that mobile phones are charged ahead of travel.
  • Monitor local news for relevant updates.

Alert+

Protests Expected in London During Israeli President’s Visit

Heightened Security in London as Pro-Palestine Groups Mobilise

Intelligence cut off: 12:00 BST 10 SEPTEMBER 2025

Israeli President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to visit London to meet with leaders of the local Jewish community and with British political and government figures, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Herzog is expected to be in the United Kingdom between 9 and 11 September, with the meeting with Starmer occurring on 10 September in Downing Street, the official residence of the prime minister in central London.

Several pro-Palestine groups have called for Herzog to be detained or denied entry to the United Kingdom in response to the ongoing war in Gaza. The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, an umbrella organisation that coordinates several pro-Palestine groups, has called for protests throughout Herzog’s stay in London. A small protest occurred on 9 September in Whitehall. Protests have been scheduled to occur on 10 September during Herzog’s speech at Chatham House, in St James’s Square, at 17:30 local time, and another rally in Whitehall at 19:00 during the Starmer-Herzog meeting.

Separately from Herzog’s visit, protests are also planned to occur on 10 September, targeting a defence and security technology fair – DSEI UK. The event is taking place at ExCel London, Royal Victoria Dock. The scheduled protest consists of a ‘pots and pans’ action, where participants seek to make as much noise as possible to disrupt an event, and will begin at 17:00 local time, coinciding with the end of activity for the day.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The protests follow a period of worsening relations between Israel and the United Kingdom, linked with the ongoing war in Gaza. Recent developments in both Gaza and the United Kingdom are likely to exacerbate the protests. First, on 6 September, UK police carried out around 900 arrests at a pro-Palestine demonstration in central London, with the majority of the arrested being accused of supporting a proscribed terror group, Palestine Action. Second, on 9 September, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) issued evacuation orders for the entirety of Gaza City, in preparation for a large-scale offensive meant to occupy the city. Third, Israel launched a series of high-profile airstrikes in Doha on 9 September targeting Hamas’ exiled leadership, a move that has been widely condemned by the international community.

The Metropolitan Police will likely be able to secure the areas of Whitehall and St James’s Square during the scheduled meeting, and the protests are likely to remain peaceful. However, the unrest is highly likely to result in transport disruptions in the nearby areas, particularly affecting the nearby public transport system. Cases of sporadic violence and vandalism, particularly targeting large multinational companies linked to Israel, cannot be discounted. Direct action-style protests, including road and public transport blockades, remain likely during the 10-11 September period.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Central London During Unrest

  • Closely monitor government alerts and local news reports.
  • Monitor the Transport for London official site for reports on possible disruptions to public transport.
  • Reassess the need to travel to the Whitehall and St James’s areas.
  • Allocate additional time for all road travel through central London.
  • If caught in a protest, try to move away if it is safe to do so, and always abide by authority directions.
  • If you are unable to leave, take precautions to minimise risks. These include moving away from hard barriers, remaining upright, and moving with and not against the crowd.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support.
  • Ensure that mobile phones are charged ahead of travel.
  • Monitor local news for relevant updates.

Alert+

Israeli Airstrikes in Doha Target Hamas Leaders

Doha Airstrikes Spark Diplomatic Fallout and Global Unrest Fears

Intelligence cut off: 15:00 BST 09 SEPTEMBER 2025

At approximately 16:10 Qatar local time, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Israel Security Agency (ISA) carried out an airstrike in the Katara District of Doha. Israeli officials stated that the attack targeted senior members of the Palestinian group Hamas. The IDF has labelled the strike “Summit of Fire”.

Hamas channels stated that the attack killed an unspecified number of members of its negotiation team, which is currently involved in talks with the US regarding a plan to end hostilities in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas and Israel have been at war since the 7 October 2023 attack perpetrated by the Palestinian group.

Unverified footage reportedly taken in the aftermath of the attack shows several plumes of smoke rising from the impact area, suggesting multiple strikes. Unverified accounts claim that the attack killed, among others, Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashal. Reports are currently conflicting regarding who has been killed, and there has been no official statement from Hamas or Qatari authorities.

Al-Hayya was the chairman of Hamas’ Political Bureau, where he succeeded Yahya Sinwar after the latter’s death in October 2024. Mashal was a former chairman of Hamas’ political bureau and one of the key leaders of the group in Qatar. Also believed to be present at the conference were Zaher Jabarin, who leads Hamas in the West Bank and Muhammad Darwish, head of Hamas’s Shura Council.

Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari has released a statement stating that Qatar “strongly condemns” the strike, calling it “cowardly”, and that the “criminal assault constitutes a blatant violation of all international laws and norms, and poses a serious threat to the security and safety of Qataris and residents in Qatar.” He added that Qatar “will not tolerate this reckless Israeli behaviour and the ongoing disruption of regional security, nor any act that targets its security and sovereignty”.

The US Embassy in Qatar has advised US citizens to shelter in place.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The attack is unprecedented and almost certainly a significant escalation with ramifications across the Arabian Peninsula. The most immediate ramifications are highly likely to be a dramatic breakdown in ceasefire negotiations, condemnation from the Gulf States, and increased civil unrest in urban centres globally.

Since 2012, Qatar has hosted the Hamas political leadership in exile. It has been this external leadership that has engaged in ceasefire negotiations with Israel, facilitated by international mediators, which have included Qatar. It is almost certain that the attack marks an end to this arrangement. The impact of this is twofold: first, the previously ongoing ceasefire negotiations are likely to completely collapse, given that the Hamas negotiating team has reportedly been largely killed. Second, power within Hamas will likely further concentrate within on-the-ground militants in the Gaza Strip, who have been more hardline and less amenable to any potential diplomacy.

Qatar is a major non-NATO ally of the US, hosting the Al-Udeid Air Base, which is currently the largest US military installation in the Middle East. According to a senior Israeli official talking to Israeli media, US President Donald Trump gave the green light for the Israeli strike in Qatar. Just days prior, on 7 September, Trump issued a “last warning” to Hamas to accept a deal to release all the hostages. If Washington’s approval of the strike is confirmed, the attack almost certainly follows the previous ultimatum, and it is likely that there will be major diplomatic ramifications among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which include Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While Qatar’s relations with other GCC states have previously experienced significant strain, it is almost certain that GCC states will strongly condemn the attack.

It is highly likely that civil unrest will result from the attack. Pro-Palestine protests will likely be organised outside Israeli and US embassies across the Middle East, and protests will also highly likely be organised in major European and US cities.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Doha, Qatar

  • Avoid the Katari District of Doha.
  • If in Doha, shelter in place due to the risk of further attacks.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts. Unverified claims and disinformation will almost certainly be widely propagated on social media and unvetted sources.
  • Monitor airport and public transport sites for live updates on possible disruptions from the airstrikes.
  • Expect the security situation in the region to remain unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of terrorist attacks and civil unrest.
  • Avoid protest hotspots, particularly outside embassies.
  • Allocate additional time for travel to airports due to the high likelihood of delays.
  • Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged.

Alert+

General Strikes Planned in France

Unions and Activist Groups Call for Mass Disruptions Across France

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 09 SEPTEMBER 2025

Several major French labour unions have called for two general strike days on 10 and 18 September. The strike action, called “Bloquons Tout” (“Let’s shut everything down”), was initially popularised on social media as a reaction to a series of austerity policies, such as scrapping two national holidays and some welfare programs, proposed by Prime Minister François Bayrou as part of his plan to reduce the government deficit. Although Bayrou was forced to resign following a no-confidence vote on 8 September, the organisers of the strike have pledged for it to go ahead.

While initially developed as a citizen-led initiative, the 10 September strike has attracted the support of several large labour unions, representing railway, airport and healthcare workers, as well as student unions. The 18 September strike had initially been planned by an inter-union group representing various public and private sector workers. In addition to the labour unions, the strike actions are supported by several left-wing groups, most notably the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, and by environmentalist, far-left, and pro-Palestine direct action groups. These direct-action groups have called for additional demonstrations, aimed at maximising the disruptions caused by the strike. For example, in Paris, collectives have called for a blockade of the Périphérique (the ring road that surrounds the city) starting at 07:00 (local time).


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The general strike will almost certainly result in severe transport and service disruptions across France. Rail travel, particularly services transiting through Paris, is highly likely to be affected by severe delays. Travel to and from the country’s main airports, including Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG/LFPG), Paris Orly (ORY/LFPO), Lyon Saint Exupéry (LYS/LFLL), and Nice-Côte d’Azur (NCE/LFMN), is also likely to be affected.

Flight operations at the main international airports are almost certainly to be impacted by the strike. According to available projections from local media, flight cancellations on the two strike days will total between 25 and 40 per cent of all flights, with average delays of around 90 minutes. A drop in operations at the key international flight hubs will highly likely impact smaller airports, further disrupting domestic flights.

While the organisers have pledged to carry out the strike despite the collapse of the Bayrou government, the scope and intensity of the strike action will highly likely be heavily influenced by President Emmanuel Macron’s decision on how to respond to the government crisis. LFI has called for new elections, as have several other left parties and the far-right National Rally (RN). However, such a move would likely be damaging for the already-weakened centre coalition that supports Macron, who may therefore opt to instead appoint a new prime minister. Such a move would almost certainly result in violent anti-government unrest in the short term, particularly in Paris.

Violent cases of unrest are likely. These will likely include sabotage and vandalism, particularly aimed at government offices and properties operated by multinational companies. Direct action groups may also target public infrastructure, as observed on the eve of the 2024 Paris Olympics. French police often respond violently to large protests, deploying pepper spray, tear gas, water cannons, and other crowd control tools. It is highly likely that clashes between the police and protesters will occur during the strike days, particularly in Paris and other large urban centres.


Travel and Safety Guidance for France During Unrest

  • Closely monitor government alerts and local news reports.
  • Monitor airport and public transport sites for live updates on possible disruptions from the strikes.
  • Allocate additional time for travel to airports due to the high likelihood of delays.
  • Avoid protest hotspots, such as government buildings and university campuses.
  • If caught in a protest, try to move away if it is safe to do so, and always abide by authority directions.
  • If you are unable to leave, take precautions to minimise risks. These include moving away from hard barriers, remaining upright, and moving with and not against the crowd.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged ahead of travel.
  • In Paris, avoid travelling on the Périphérique due to the threat of road blockades.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform for relevant updates.

Alert+

Nepal Protests Escalate After Social Media Ban

Protests Sweep Kathmandu After Ban on Social Media Platforms

SITUATION UPDATE | Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 10 SEPTEMBER 2025

On 8 September, Gen Z-led protests broke out targeting government corruption and its decision to restrict 26 unregistered social media and online platforms in Nepal. Protests quickly escalated into clashes as protesters broke into a restricted area and entered the Federal Parliament premises. Security forces have used live ammunition and tear gas, and the government has imposed a curfew in several districts.

Clashes have continued to worsen, with crowds setting fire to the parliament in Kathmandu and the Hilton Hotel in Naxal, Kathmandu, and attacking government buildings and houses of political leaders on 9 September. Over 1,500 inmates have escaped from several prisons. Many leaders have taken refuge with security forces, and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has resigned, with no one yet replacing him, inducing a power vacuum in the country. Overall, at least 19 protesters have died.

The military has imposed a nationwide prohibitory order until 1700 local time, 10 September, followed by a curfew until 0600 local time, 11 September. Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA), Kathmandu’s primary international airport, is currently closed and is set to re-open at 1800 local time, 10 September. The closure has already been extended and will likely remain in place if major civil unrest continues. Government attempts to placate protesters, including by rescinding the social media ban, failed to quell the widespread civil unrest. However, with the military taking control of Nepal’s internal security, the streets of Kathmandu have reportedly remained calm on 10 September. Given the fractured political situation, there is a realistic possibility that civil unrest will once again restart, with the weekend being the most likely time for renewed protests.

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 10:30 BST 08 SEPTEMBER 2025

On 8 September, Gen Z-led protests broke out targeting government corruption and its decision to restrict 26 unregistered social media and online platforms in Nepal. The social media platforms include X, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube, and Snapchat. The ban was imposed after the companies failed to register with the government within a seven-day deadline. In the lead-up to the protests, hashtags including “#NepoKid” and “#NepoBabies” trended online, gaining support for the protest movement. Organisers have shared information on protest routes via social media and have encouraged students to join the demonstrations in their uniforms.

Demonstrators gathered at Maitighar in Kathmandu at 09:00 local time in a rally organised by the “Hami Nepal” group, which sought prior permission. Protests escalated when demonstrators pelted stones at security forces, who were using tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition fired into the air to disperse the crowd. Protesters subsequently broke into a restricted area and entered the Federal Parliament premises. One protester has reportedly died after being shot by security forces and several others have been injured in clashes. Photographers and journalists covering the protests were among those injured, with employees of Naya Patrika, Nepal Press, and Kantipur Television hit by rubber bullets.

In response to the demonstrations, the Kathmandu District Administration Office imposed a curfew in New Baneshwar under Section 6 of the Local Administration Act. The curfew is effective from 12:30 to 22:00 local time and covers Baneshwor Chowk to Bijuli Bazaar bridge (west), Tinkune Chowk (east), Ratna Rajya School (north), and Shankhamul bridge (south). The curfew was then extended to include the President’s residence, Shital Niwas area, Maharajgunj, the vice-president’s residence in Lainchaur, all sides of Singha Durbar, the prime minister’s residence in Baluwatar, and surrounding areas. The government deployed the Nepali Army in New Baneshwor.

Protests have also spread to several other cities in Nepal, including Biratnagar, Butwal, Chitwan, and Pokhara. Several celebrities, journalists, members of the opposition and other prominent figures, including the Mayor of Kathmandu, have endorsed the protests.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The protests occur amid broader frustration with a lack of access to basic healthcare, food insecurity, and shortages of essential medications. The population’s economic insecurity has been exacerbated by frequent flash flooding in recent months. In July and August, heavy floods impacted Nepal, disrupting trade and damaging hydropower plants. Members of the government, in contrast, are perceived to be living in luxury. Nepal is ranked 107 out of 180 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, with frequent corruption scandals and legal retaliation against journalists.

The government’s decision to ban 26 major social media and online platforms has almost certainly been perceived as government overreach and an attempt to introduce censorship. Approximately half of Nepal’s population uses these platforms, and usage is disproportionate among Gen-Z. Communication apps like WhatsApp are also heavily relied on to communicate both within Nepal and to diaspora communities abroad. Unless repealed, these restrictions will almost certainly continue to fuel resentment towards the government.

VPN usage in Nepal has increased markedly since the 4 September ban on online platforms. This has enabled a partial circumvention of the ban. The government has warned against the indiscriminate use of VPNs and has hinted at restricting VPN usage. Should the government impose restrictions on VPN usage, it is highly likely that protest movements will intensify.

Restrictions on social media and online platforms will likely reduce the spread of disinformation and limit the ability of protest groups to coordinate online. However, the move will also likely obfuscate the true scale, size, and nature of the protests, restricting independent reporting and situational awareness for anyone in-country. Potential information gaps will likely increase reliance on state narratives, with limited opportunities for independent verification.

The use of rubber bullets against journalists will almost certainly portray security forces as using excessive force to quell dissent. The death of a protester will highly likely further exacerbate protests. The endorsement of the protests by prominent people, including key political figures, is likely to provide the protest with a degree of legitimacy and could provide the movement with some form of leadership, dynamics that could sustain the momentum of current protests.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Nepal

  • Avoid the areas around Baneshwor Chowk, as well as all major government buildings, university and police facilities. Reassess travel to central Kathmandu.
  • Allocate additional time for all road travel in Kathmandu, and other major cities in Nepal.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • Monitor trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

Alert+

Afghanistan Hit by 6.0 Magnitude Earthquake

Earthquake Strikes Eastern Afghanistan, Tremors Felt in Pakistan

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 01 SEPTEMBER 2025

On 31 August, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck near Jalalabad, Afghanistan, devastating the eastern provinces of Kunar and Nangarhar. The quake resulted in heavy casualties and widespread destruction, with the death toll continuing to rise as rescue operations progress. The latest figures presented by the Taliban-run Interior Ministry at approximately 09:00 UTC, 1 September, place the death toll at 800, with 2,500 injuries across the affected areas.

The most affected area is Kunar’s Nurgal district, where at least three villages have been destroyed. Afghan disaster officials warned that hundreds of people might still be trapped beneath the rubble. In Nangarhar province, at least 10 deaths and 250 injuries were reported, with Dara-I-Nur district among the hardest-hit locations. The Taliban authorities dispatched relief teams to assist with search and rescue operations in the worst-affected regions.

The earthquake’s tremors were also felt across the border in Pakistan, with shaking reported in Islamabad, Peshawar, Hangu, Mansehra, and Malakand. Precautionary measures were implemented in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the federal capital region, though no significant casualties have been confirmed at this stage.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Afghanistan is prone to large earthquakes, particularly in the Hindu Kush mountain range, where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet. Aftershocks are highly likely in the next days to weeks. While most will likely be small-to-moderate (magnitude 3.0 to 4.0), further magnitude 5.0 or above earthquakes remain a realistic possibility and could result in significant damage.

Afghanistan is one of the least disaster-resilient countries in the world, and given the prevalence of unreinforced, non-earthquake-resilient buildings, even moderate aftershocks could trigger secondary collapses, complicate rescue operations, and result in further casualties.

Topography in the affected regions and adjoining Pakistani districts (Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Lower Dir) makes landslides and rockfall a significant risk, particularly along river valleys and cut slopes. Slope failures could block roads, isolate impacted communities, and cause flooding if river channels are dammed.

Damage to water and sanitation networks will likely increase the likelihood of waterborne diseases, adding further strain on hospitals and clinics. Access constraints, including debris, landslides, damaged bridges, and the presence of non-state armed actors in parts of eastern Afghanistan, will almost certainly complicate the provision of humanitarian aid and disaster relief.

In Pakistan, while no significant damage has been recorded, localised infrastructure disruption in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly temporary road closures and communications outages, is highly likely. An elevated landslide risk in hill districts following aftershocks or rainfall could further exacerbate the humanitarian situation following monsoon flooding. Furthermore, there will likely be congestion at the Torkham border crossing if humanitarian flows and medical referrals increase.

Access will likely be constrained in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, with debris-blocked roads, infrastructural damage, and continuing aftershocks and slope failures impeding ground movement on both sides of the border.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Afghanistan and Pakistan

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • Expect aftershocks. Be prepared to Drop, Cover, Hold On in case of further tremors.
  • During a tremor, if outside, do not enter buildings and move away from buildings, trees, streetlights and overhead lines.
  • If inside, pick a safe place (under a sturdy table or desk, or against an interior wall and away from windows and heavy furniture). Do not leave until the shaking stops.
  • If evacuating a building, always use the stairs. Look out for fires and falling debris.
  • Prepare an emergency ‘go bag’ with essentials such as bottled water, batteries, important documents, and medications.
  • Confirm booked flights are running prior to checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
  • Management should maintain communication with individuals affected until the event is concluded.
  • Heed evacuation orders and travel to government-issued shelters if safe to do so.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Ensure important documents and medications are appropriately stored.
  • Prepare for power outages, communication disruptions, and travel delays.
  • Stay away from damaged buildings and affected areas until authorities deem them safe.

Alert+

Indonesia Protests Escalate After Police Killing in Jakarta

Indonesia Unrest Deepens as Anger Over Police Brutality and Corruption Mounts

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 29 AUGUST 2025

As of 18:00 local time (11:00 UTC), 29 August, protests are ongoing in several Indonesian cities, with multiple cases of clashes between protesters and police forces being reported. The demonstrations are in response to the 28 August killing of a motorcycle taxi driver, Affan Kurniawan, who was allegedly run over by a vehicle operated by Brimob, a special operations unit of the Indonesian National Police, during a separate anti-government protest. A video reportedly showing the incident was shared online, attracting significant media attention.

Protests on 29 August started in Jakarta, where protesters gathered in the vicinity of the Brimob and metropolitan police headquarters, and staged road blockades across much of the city’s centre and particularly the Kwitang area. Violent clashes reportedly started after protesters attempted to block a transiting police convoy and pelted vehicles with rocks. Brimob units deployed tear gas to disperse the crowds, leading to a further increase in tensions. At around 16:30 local time (09:30 UTC), local media reported that protesters had stormed the metropolitan police headquarters in Jakarta.

Protests were also recorded in multiple other large Indonesian cities. Clashes have been observed in Jawa Barat, in Surakarta, Medan, and in Bandung. Local universities are also focal points for ongoing protests, as local student unions have called for students to join the unrest.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The current protests form part of a broader wave of anti-government sentiment in 2025, which has triggered sporadic civil unrest. Notably, student-led civil unrest targeting government austerity erupted on 17 February under the slogan #IndonesiaGelap (Dark Indonesia). Beginning on 25 August, the most recent demonstrations started following the publication of reports regarding a new monthly housing allowance for politicians, which is worth approximately 20 times Indonesia’s minimum wage. The publication has acted as a catalyst for broader anti-government sentiment centring on low wages, cuts to government funding, job cuts in the textile industry, government corruption, and the growing role of the military in civilian life, which have been sources of growing frustration among much of Indonesia’s population.

The perceived government failures are amid a background of economic uncertainty. Real wages have lagged behind inflation, contributing to shrinking real wages and a rising cost of living. This has been exacerbated by accelerating unemployment, with Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, which constituted 32 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2002, shrinking to just 19 per cent in 2024. In the first half of 2025, approximately 42,000 manufacturing workers were laid off. Furthermore, economic growth has slowed, dropping to 4.8 per cent in Q2 of 2025, the weakest pace in nearly four years and short of President Prabowo Subianto’s target of 8 per cent.

Social media has catalysed unrest, with footage of clashes spreading quickly and prompting further anti-government sentiment. The government has blamed online platforms for disinformation and has summoned representatives from several social media platforms, including Meta and TikTok. According to the deputy communications minister, the government will request that the platforms moderate their content. There is a realistic possibility that, should social media platforms refuse to impose strict content moderation measures, the government will impose social media blocks to prevent further anti-government sentiment from spreading. However, such measures would also likely significantly reduce situational awareness, limiting the ability to track the scale and location of protests in real-time.

Given the escalation in demonstrations, particularly since 28 August, it is highly likely that they will continue over the weekend. While there is a realistic possibility that this could subside in early September, the police’s continued use of force and any potential investigation into police brutality will likely trigger further unrest. There is a realistic possibility that the government will attempt to placate protesters by imposing policies centred on curbing corruption and austerity measures, although minor concessions are unlikely to quell current or prevent further demonstrations.


Travel and Safety Guidance for Jakarta, Indonesia

  • Avoid the Kwitang area in Jakarta, as well as all major government buildings, universities and police facilities. Reassess travel to central Jakarta.
  • Allocate additional time for all road travel in Jakarta.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • Monitor trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

Alert+

Tsunami Alerts Issued After Kamchatka Earthquake

Tsunami Threat Expands After Major 8.8 Earthquake Strikes Kamchatka

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 30 JULY 2025

At 11:24 local time (23:24 UTC) on 30 July, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck near the Kamchatka Peninsula in the far east of Russia. The tremor was shallow, occurring at a depth of 20.7 kilometres. The epicentre was located 136 kilometres east-southeast of Petrovalosk-Kamchatsky.

The immediate impact in parts of Kamchatka was severe. Tsunami waves up to five metres devastated the town of Severo-Kruilsk, and strong shaking in the city of Petrovalosk-Kamchatsky caused power and mobile outages, building damage, and multiple injuries.

Tsunami warnings and evacuation orders have been triggered in coastal regions across much of the Pacific, including Japan, Hawaii, Alaska, and California. The US Tsunami Warning System has issued the following warnings:

Tsunami waves over three metres possible: Ecuador, Russia, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Tsunami waves between one and three metres possible: Chile, Costa Rica, French Polynesia, Guam, Hawaii, Japan, Jarvis Island, Johnston Atoll, Kiribati, Midway Island, Palmyra Island, Peru, Samoa, Solomon Islands

Tsunami waves between 0.3 and one metre possible: Antarctica, Australia, Chuuk, Colombia, Cook Islands, El Salvador, Fiji, Guatemala, Howland and Baker Islands, Indonesia, Kermadec Islands, Kosrae, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Nauru, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Pitcairn Islands, Pohnpei, Taiwan, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Wake Island, Wallis and Futuna, American Samoa, Yap

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued warnings of tsunami heights of up to three metres for coastal areas from Hokkaido to Wakayama Prefecture, with evacuation advisories being issued for nearly two million people in over 220 municipalities. Employees at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant have been ordered to evacuate. The tallest wave recorded at the time of writing was 1.3 metres, at Kuji Port in Iwate Prefecture.

In Hawaii, evacuation warnings were issued across Maui and Oahu, including the state capital, Honolulu, with flights being cancelled as a precaution. Waves as high as 1.8 metres have been recorded near Hawaii.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The earthquake is the joint sixth-largest recorded globally since 1900, and the strongest since Japanʼs 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake. The Kamchatka Peninsula is situated along the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire, a horseshoe-shaped tectonic belt which spans most of the coastal Pacific and is responsible for approximately 90 per cent of the worldʼs earthquakes.

The shallow depth of the earthquake is a key cause of the extensive tsunami threat. The effects of tsunamis will almost certainly depend on the disaster resilience of the countries affected. Hawaii and Japan, two locations anticipated to experience the greatest tsunami impact, both have comprehensive disaster preparedness measures which have highly likely mitigated the potential impact.

In Japan, the suspension of high-speed rail, mass evacuations, emergency broadcasting, and automated sea gates have all contributed towards a low risk to life as of the time of writing. In Hawaii, the rapid issuance of evacuation orders and pre-emptive measures to protect critical infrastructure, such as the shutting down of water supply valves, have likewise considerably reduced the risk to life. The effectiveness of the evacuation orders in Hawaii has been notable, particularly in contrast with the emergency communications system failures that exacerbated the impact of the 2023 Maui wildfires.

In multiple areas with issued tsunami warnings, the level of disruption is high, with significant air travel disruption, high levels of traffic congestion, and the sudden suspension of business activity.


Travel and Safety Guidance in Response to Tsunami Warnings

  • Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
  • If in a location with an active tsunami warning, immediately move to high ground or as far inland as possible, away from the coastline.
  • Be alert to signs of a tsunami, such as a sudden rise or draining of ocean waters.
  • If you are in a boat, face the direction of the waves and go out to sea.
  • If near the epicentre of the earthquake, expect aftershocks. Be prepared to Drop, Cover, Hold On in case of further tremors.
  • During a tremor, if outside, do not enter buildings and move away from buildings, trees, streetlights and overhead lines.
  • If inside, pick a safe place (under a sturdy table or desk, or against an interior wall and away from windows and heavy furniture). Do not leave until the shaking stops.
  • If evacuating a building, always use the stairs. Look out for fires and falling debris.
  • Prepare an emergency ‘go bagʼ with essentials such as bottled water, batteries, important documents, and medications.
  • Heed evacuation orders and travel to government-issued shelters if safe to do so.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Ensure important documents and medications are appropriately stored.
  • Prepare for power outages, communication disruptions, and travel delays.
  • Stay away from damaged buildings and affected areas until authorities deem them safe.
  • Avoid touching floodwaters, which can contain debris, sewage, bacteria, or chemicals.
  • Confirm booked flights are running prior to checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.

Alert+

Civil Unrest in Angola

Widespread Protests Erupt in Luanda as Fuel Price Hike Sparks Unrest

Intelligence cut off: 17:00 BST 29 JULY 2025

Unrest erupted in Luanda, Angola’s capital, on 28 July, as a three-day taxi driver strike against the government’s decision to raise the price of diesel by approximately 33 per cent began. The taxi driver strike quickly evolved into broader anti-government protests as thousands of people joined demonstrations. Protests have resulted in clashes, roadblocks, looted shops, and destroyed cars, and have continued with intensity into 29 July. Protesters have chanted against fuel price increases and the nearly five-decade rule by the ruling party.

Security forces have reacted forcefully with live ammunition, tear gas, and rubber bullets, killing at least four people in Luanda’s Cazenga area and arresting over 500 across the capital. State-run media has reportedly avoided covering the protests. Despite the clashes and government appeals for an end to the strike, the taxi drivers’ association in Luanda has condemned the violence and casualties but has committed to continuing the strike until at least the 30 July.

According to local media, all access to the Palácio da Cidade Alta is restricted, and the Calemba 2 area of Camama municipality, Campos Universitário Urban District, and 11 de Novembro Street are blocked with barricades. Access to the local hospital on 11 de Novembro Street has been obstructed.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

While the price increase was proposed on 1 July, which has triggered weekly protests, the taxi strike almost certainly acted as a catalyst for Angolan citizens to vent their broader frustrations against the government. The ruling party, People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), has been in power since 1975 and has been facing increasing opposition. Angola’s economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for approximately 90 per cent of export revenues. Global price fluctuations in recent years have triggered high inflation, rising food and transport costs in a country where the average monthly wage is just USD 75.

Angola has a large youth population who are experiencing widespread unemployment and are driving the current wave of unrest. Approximately 65 per cent of Angola’s population is under the age of 24, and only 2 per cent of its population is aged over 65. Social media almost certainly constitutes a tool for organising demonstrations and could be blocked by the government in an attempt to quell the unrest.

Civil unrest will highly likely continue on 30 July, which will be the third and final day of the originally planned taxi driver strike. The forceful reaction from security forces almost certainly aims to deter further protests. However, this could have the adverse effect of further inflaming demonstrations, particularly if footage of violence perpetrated by security forces is widely shared on social media.


Travel Risk Advice for Angola

  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Angola, particularly Luanda.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • The overall security situation in Angola, including Luanda, is likely to remain severe in the coming days.
  • Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts.

Alert+

Thailand-Cambodia Border Clashes

Clashes Intensify on Thailand-Cambodia Border Amid Rising Military Activity

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 24 JULY 2025

The ongoing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has intensified after five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine in the disputed area along shared border with Cambodia in Ubon Ratchathani province on 23 July. According to Thai authorities, the mines were newly laid along paths that were supposed to be safe by mutual agreement. The incident prompted Thailand to expel the Cambodian ambassador and close all border crossings with Cambodia, to which Cambodia responded by downgrading diplomatic ties and evacuating its embassy in Bangkok.

In the most significant escalation, on the morning of 24 July, a confrontation involving six Cambodian soldiers and an alleged drone, and several Thai soldiers has triggered direct strikes between the two territories. Thailand and Cambodia have accused each other of provoking the incident.

In response to the clashes, Thailand launched airstrikes at two Cambodian military targets and deployed F-16 fighter jets, which Cambodian media claimed to have downed, something that was refuted by the Thai Air Force as “fake news”. One F-16 fired into Cambodia, destroying a military target, according to a statement by the Thai military. According to Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet, Thailand attacked Cambodian military positions at Prasat Ta Moan Thom and Prasat Ta Krabey in Oddar Meanchey province, and Cambodia’s defence ministry has accused Thailand of targeting a road.

Cambodia has responded with artillery fire into a civilian area in Thailand’s Surin province, according to Thai defence ministry spokesperson. The Thai military has reported at least 12 civilian fatalities, according to latest figures. Artillery fire from Cambodian forces has reportedly caused damage in the Kantharalak district of Si Sa Ket, Thailand, setting a 7-Eleven store ablaze and striking the Phanom Dong Rak Hospital in Surin province. Thai officials have accused Cambodian forces of targeting civilian areas. Cambodia has claimed to have taken control of disputed temples along the border, with reports of Thai soldiers being killed or injured.

The situation has prompted diplomatic responses, with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet seeking intervention from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Despite the conflict, Cambodian authorities report that flights between the two countries are operating normally. Approximately 40,000 citizens have been evacuated from 86 villages in Thailand and evacuations are underway in Preah Vihear, Cambodia. The Thai embassy has urged its citizens to leave Cambodia.

Thailand has also closed its southernmost border checkpoint with Cambodia at Hat Lek in Trat, as clashes continue further north. Both countries have urged civilians not to share photos or videos of the ongoing conflict, indicating a desire to control the narrative and manage the situation domestically.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

After an armed confrontation in the disputed border region of Preah Vihear on 28 May, which resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier, tensions have escalated between the two countries. In the following weeks, border crossing restrictions have been imposed, trade of produce, fuel, and media has been stopped, resulting in protests, economic disruption, and a political crisis in Thailand resulting in the suspension of Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The dispute originates from a 1904 colonial-era agreement between France and Siam using the watershed principle to define the border, but a later French map placed the Preah Vihear Temple in Cambodia. The ICJ ultimately ruled in Cambodia’s favour. Tensions over the disputed region have occasionally escalated, most notably in 2008 following armed skirmishes between Cambodian and Thai troops.

In 2011, both sides engaged in a week-long exchange of artillery, mortars, and rocket fire, triggering at least 15 deaths and 85,000 displacements. The clashes prompted the diplomatic intervention of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and led to both sides agreeing to de-escalate with Indonesian observers monitoring the border. Following the clashes, Bangkok and Phnom Penh agreed to settle future disputes with a Joint Boundary Commission; a means which failed to resolve the current dispute on 15 June.

Given the instability in Thailand, there is an elevated risk of a coup, with the Thai military highly likely exploiting the border crisis with Cambodia to win public favour. Thailand has a history of coups, with 22 coup attempts, 13 of which were successful, since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. The most recent two coups ousted Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra‘s family members, Thaksin in 2006 and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014. The normalisation of coups in Thailand has likely created a ‘coup culture’, whereby often military-led takeovers are viewed by many as an acceptable way to solve a political crisis. The likelihood of coups typically increases during times of mass protest or armed conflict, with the military justifying a coup by claiming they are “restoring order”.

Thailand has a significant military advantage over Cambodia, outmatching Cambodia in airpower, firepower, and mobility. Cambodia has historically relied on symbolic and diplomatic efforts during disputes with Thailand. On 14 July, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet declared that mandatory military conscription would be implemented in 2026 in an attempt to bolster its military capabilities.

Continued clashes are highly likely as both sides conduct retaliatory strikes. The accusations of the deliberate targeting of civilian areas from Thailand significantly escalates the risk of miscalculation from both sides. While ASEAN has, so far, been diplomatically impotent regarding the escalations, given the lack of formal mechanisms for conflict dispute and consensus-based decision-making, diplomatic intervention to de-escalate between the two sides is likely.


Travel Risk Advice for Thailand and Cambodia

  • Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stranded in Thailand or Cambodia.
  • Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure, which may constitute potential targets.
  • Ensure you have robust evacuation, communication, and contingency plans in place.
  • Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
  • Expect the security situation in the region to remain highly unstable in the immediate future. There is an increased risk of further strikes and civil unrest.
  • Prepare an essential “go-bag” containing, at a minimum, travel documents, cash, medications, basic supplies, and communication devices in case of evacuation.
  • Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged in case of potential power outages.
  • Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts. Unverified claims and disinformation will almost certainly be widely propagated on social media and unvetted sources.

Alert+

Saba Saba Day Protests in Kenya

Road Disruptions Reported Across Kenya as Demonstrations Begin

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 07 JULY 2025

Protests have reignited in Kenya, coinciding with the 7 July anniversary of the historic pro-democracy demonstrations known as Saba Saba Day. While today’s protests are in their early stages, violent incidents have already been reported. On the Nyeri-Nairobi highway in Karatina in Nyeri County, protesters have set tyres alight. Security forces have fired “warning shots” and tear gas to disperse a small group of protesters along Ruaraka Junction on Thika Road in Nairobi.

​Local media have shared images of anti-government demonstrators lighting a fire to block traffic on the B6 road between Embu and Wang’uru in central Kenya’s Kirinyaga County. Police have utilised tear gas to disperse protesters in Kitengela.

Unrest locations in Kenya Saba Saba day 2025

Authorities had anticipated the protests and took pre-emptive measures by setting up roadblocks at several entry points to Nairobi’s Central Business District and blocking roads near the country’s parliament building with razor wire. A large police presence was also reported in Mombasa ahead of the planned demonstrations. Early morning commuters and overnight travellers were stuck at checkpoints, with security forces only letting some vehicles through.

Armed individuals have been accused of attacking protesters, with an armed group attacking the headquarters of a human rights NGO in Nairobi on 6 July. Civil society groups have claimed that they are colluding with security forces. The group reportedly consists of at least 25 individuals on motorbikes armed with clubs and stones. If they target protesters today, it will highly likely escalate the unrest and spark clashes between protesters and security forces.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Anti-government protests have escalated following the death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody on 9 June. Today is the most significant day of unrest since 25 June, the first anniversary of the storming of parliament. Protests will almost certainly escalate throughout the day and into the evening, with demonstrators highly likely to clash with security forces.

​Ahead of today’s protests, Cabinet Secretary for the Ministry of Interior and National Administration Onesimus Kipchumba Murkomen encouraged security forces to shoot on sight, something that will almost certainly exacerbate the civil unrest.

The 7 July Saba Saba (Seven Seven) Uprising in 1990 saw pro-democracy activists led by opposition figures rally against the rule of President Daniel arap Moi, who had been in power since 1978. The government banned the rally and violently cracked down on demonstrators, with security forces killing at least 20 people, arresting hundreds, and detaining opposition leaders without trial. In December 1991, Moi lifted the ban on opposition parties, enabling multiparty politics. ​

A notable distinction from the Saba Saba Uprising is that, while protests in the 1990s were led by opposition figures, the current demonstrations are a grassroots Gen Z movement led by students without defined leaders or ethnic affiliations.

​The protesters have demanded good governance, greater accountability, and justice for victims of police brutality. The broad demands and lack of clear leadership will highly likely make it more difficult for protesters to pressure President William Ruto, who has weathered previous waves of protests since his election in September 2022, to resign. This, alongside the continued heavy-handedness by security forces, means that protests will likely continue beyond today.

Security checkpoints and protests have blocked major roads across Kenya. Continued travel disruptions around major cities, including Nairobi and Mombasa, are highly likely.


Travel Risk Advice for Kenya

  • Avoid all non-essential travel to Kenya, particularly Nairobi and Mombasa.
  • Avoid the central business district in Nairobi, as well as all major government buildings such as the Kenyan Parliament or the Governor’s Office.
  • Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
  • Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
  • Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
  • Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
  • Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
  • If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
  • The overall security situation in Kenya, including Nairobi, is likely to remain severe in the coming days.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.

Alert+

Bulk Carrier Attacked by Houthis in Red Sea

Houthis Strike Bulk Carrier in Major Red Sea Attack

Intelligence cut off: 11:00 BST 07 JULY 2025

On 6 July, the Liberia-flagged Greek-owned dry bulk carrier MAGIC SEAS (IMO: 9736169) was attacked 51NM southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen. The attack was almost certainly conducted by the Yemen-based Houthi Movement (officially ‘Ansar Allah’).

At 1125 UTC, the vessel reported being engaged by multiple small vessels (reportedly eight to nine skiffs), which opened fire on MAGIC SEAS with automatic firearms and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). The vessel’s Armed Security Team (AST) returned fire. At 1401 UTC, the Company Security Officer (CSO) reported that the vessel had been struck by ‘unknown projectiles’, resulting in a fire onboard. Following engagement with the skiffs, the vessel was reportedly attacked by four Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs), two of which impacted the port side of the vessel, and two of which were “intercepted and destroyed by the AST”.

Location of July 6 Houthi Attack on MAGIC SEAS in the Red Sea

An executive affiliated with the shipping company which owns the MAGIC SEAS stated that the vessel was also targeted by missiles, which started fires in the forecastle near the ship’s bow and in its second hold, damaging the vessel’s fuel tanks and hitting the engine room. At 1530 UTC, the CSO reported that the crew were preparing to abandon ship, with all crew having abandoned ship by 1553 UTC. The crew were confirmed as rescued by a passing merchant vessel at 1900 UTC. The vessel remains abandoned and is taking on water.

Hours after the attack, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted multiple airstrikes against Houthi targets in Al Hudaydah, Ras Isa and Salif in Yemen. The IAF also reportedly targeted the GALAXY LEADER (IMO: 9237307), which was hijacked by the Houthis in late 2023.

It is almost certain that the GALAXY LEADER was struck due to long-standing concerns that the vessel has been used as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) asset, with the Israeli military having previously stated that the Houthis had installed a radar system on the vessel to track vessels in the region following multiple strikes on the Houthi’s coastal radar infrastructure.


INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The incident is the first Houthi attack against a merchant vessel since December 2024. Following the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the US and the Houthis on 6 May, some merchant vessel operators had resumed transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. However, the attack against MAGIC SEAS, almost certainly highlights the continuing threat to merchant vessels, and there is a realistic possibility that the Houthis will follow up the success of the attack with further attacks in the near future. 

The brief Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas between January and March led to the Houthi movement announcing an end to attacks against merchant vessels that are not directly affiliated with Israel. However, the Houthis announced a resumption of the anti-merchant shipping campaign after the end of the ceasefire, with the US and Israel then regularly conducting air strikes against Houthi-controlled Yemen. The Houthis, however, did not attack any merchant shipping during this period, despite sustained threats.

The US involvement in strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer in June led to a member of the Houthi politburo announcing an end to the ceasefire with the US, and it is likely that the attack against MAGIC SEAS is intended as strategic messaging of a renewal of the Houthi anti-merchant shipping campaign.

MAGIC SEAS was transiting between China and Turkey. However, the shipowner, Allseas Marine, has at least three other vessels that have previously made port calls in Israel. In a statement published after the attack, the Houthis claimed that the vessel “meets the Yemeni criteria for targeting ships”.  It is unclear at the time of the writing whether this is due to the vessel owners having conducted business in Israel – given the ambiguity of Houthi statements and the previously indiscriminate nature of Houthi attacks, all merchant vessels transiting near Yemen should consider themselves a potential target. 

The Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) employed during the attack stand out for both the scale and diversity of attack methods. While the Houthis have previously used skiffs during attacks, the number used during this attack is particularly large. It is highly likely that the ISR capabilities of the Houthis have been significantly degraded following the withdrawal of Iranian assets from the region and US-Israeli strikes. The Houthis likely used the large group of skiffs to enable the targeting of the vessel with other weapon systems such as USVs and missiles. It is almost certain, given the attack methods, that the Houthis intended to sink the vessel.


Travel Risk Advice

  • Vessel operators transiting the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden should consider the use of an AST. ASTs should be positioned to cover all avenues of approach.
  • Vessel operators should conduct thorough pre-voyage risk assessments.
  • Vessels should have well-rehearsed plans and protocols for emergency response to security incidents.
  • Vessel operators should enhance visual and radar watch 24/7 from the southern Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden. Effective and properly equipped lookouts should be stationed at all times.
  • Vessels operating in the region should consider suspending broadcasting on AIS.
  • Vessels should limit transits to daylight hours where possible.
  • Vessels should limit other electronic signatures and minimise non-essential transmissions to limit detection, identification and targeting.
  • Vessel operators should consider alternative routes due to the threat of renewed Houthi operations targeting merchant vessels. All vessels or shipping companies with clear links to Israel should consider rerouting.
  • Vessels should maintain contact with authorities like the UKMTO and immediately report on any suspicious activity.
  • For further counter-measures, vessel operators should consult authoritative sources such as the BMP Maritime Security guide.
  • Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.