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Calls for Protests in Kenya Over Fuel Price Increases

Kenya Faces Protest Risk After Sharp Fuel Price Increase

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 15:15 UTC 17 APRIL 2026

Kenyan opposition members have called for protests in Nairobi on 21 April under the social media hashtag #RejectFuelPrices. In response, Nairobi Police Commander Issa Mohamud claimed that the protests are “unlawful”, since protesters must notify the police at least 14 days in advance of planned protests and public gatherings. Mohamud added that they will “take appropriate action” and that violence or theft “will not be tolerated, and arrests will be made”.

The calls for demonstrations follow a 15 April decision from Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), which sets the maximum retail prices, to increase fuel prices. Under the revision, petrol prices are set to increase by 16.1 per cent and diesel prices by 24.2 per cent. The EPRA cited the costs of imported products, which have increased by up to 68.7 per cent. The new pricing will apply from 16 April to 14 May.

Earlier on 15 April, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, on behalf of the opposition coalition United Opposition, gave the government a seven-day ultimatum to act on a series of demands aimed at reducing fuel prices. These demands include scrapping the controversial government-to-government (G-to-G) fuel import deal, reducing fuel taxes, including VAT and the road maintenance levy, and redirecting funds from major government projects to protect consumers. Should the government fail to address these demands, the United Opposition has threatened to call for “mass action”.

President William Ruto spoke the same day, dismissing the need for protests. He stated, “[t]here are others saying that because fuel prices have increased globally, they will hold protests in the country. I want to ask, if they protest, will the cost of fuel decrease? We must use our brains to find ways to reduce the price of fuel.” He has also stated that the government had already absorbed part of the price increase through subsidies.

To quell potential unrest, Ruto has announced the reduction of fuel VAT from 16 per cent to 8 per cent for the next three months, as well as a crackdown on oil cartels, saying there would be no tolerance for manipulation in the petroleum sector.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

High Likelihood of Protest Turnout in Nairobi

Kenya’s fuel imports are heavily tied to Gulf suppliers, and the price of fuel has spiked due to the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Under the G-to-G framework, Kenya’s petroleum import system set up during Ruto’s government in March 2023, Kenya is supplied by Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Trading; the UAE’s Fujairah FZE and ADNOC Global Trading; and Singapore’s ENOC Singapore.

Kenya has seen major protests in recent years linked to the cost of living. In June and August 2024, a series of mass protests erupted in response to proposed tax increases in the government’s Finance Bill 2024. The unrest started in Nairobi, quickly spreading to other parts of the country. 50 people were killed, and over 230 were injured as protesters torched the Kenyan Parliament Building and clashed with security forces, who used live ammunition and conducted mass arrests. Demonstrations subsided after the government rejected the bill on 28 June.

Widespread protests again took place in June and early July 2025, after a blogger was killed in police custody, with protesters demanding an end to police brutality. Security forces again responded with repression, including live ammunition, tear gas, water cannon, and mass arrests. At least 65 people were killed, and over 550 people were injured. No significant concessions were made, and the issue of police brutality almost certainly remains unresolved.

It is not certain that the #RejectFuelPrices protests will go ahead, since President Ruto has already made minor concessions, and some Kenyans will almost certainly be deterred from attending by the threat of arrest or being subjected to police brutality. However, Kenya, particularly Nairobi, has a strong student movement and experienced several major anti-government demonstrations in recent years, raising the likelihood that the protests will take place and be well-attended

Kenyan police forces have a precedent of responding heavily-handedly to demonstrations, deploying live ammunition in both 2024 and 2025 unrest. If the planned 21 April protests go ahead, they will likely be met with force, particularly since the demonstrations have been deemed unlawful. If security forces are perceived as using disproportionate force against protesters, this will highly likely exacerbate demonstrations.

The opposition’s seven-day ultimatum is set to expire on 22 April, one day after the planned #RejectFuelPrices protest. Aside from cutting fuel VAT, President Ruto has not acquiesced to the United Opposition’s demands, and it is unlikely that he will announce further cost-cutting measures before the deadline, especially since he has publicly defended the G-to-G scheme. If the opposition’s deadline passes without significant government concessions and they call for “mass action”, this will highly likely further escalate unrest.

While precise protest locations have not been specified in the call for demonstrations, hotspots in Nairobi include the Central Business District, particularly near the City Hall and the Kenyan parliament; Kangemi; Ngong; Kamukunji; Thika Road; and Kitengela. During the 2025 protests, security forces blocked off major roads into Nairobi, including Waiyaki Way, Mombasa Road, Thika Road, Ngong Road, Valley Road, Juja Road, and Lang’ata Road.

In the lead-up to and during the potential protests, there is a realistic possibility that the government will impose internet outages to prevent the spread of calls for anti-government protests. There will highly likely be a heightened security presence in Nairobi and other major cities on 21 April.

Multiple other African countries have seen major fuel price increases. Nigeria has seen the steepest increases, with prices increasing by approximately 65 per cent. Senegal, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and South Africa are other notable countries that have seen major price increases and fuel shortages in recent weeks.

Previous waves of Kenyan unrest have inspired similar Gen Z-led movements in other African countries, such as Nigeria and Mozambique. It is likely that a successful high-visibility fuel protest in Kenya will inspire similar demonstrations in other regional countries, particularly if it forces the government into major concessions.

Travel and Safety Guidance for Nairobi, Kenya

Reconsider non-essential travel to Kenya, particularly Nairobi, around 21 April.
Avoid the central business district in Nairobi around 21 April, particularly around Kenyatta Avenue, Haile Selassie Avenue, City Hall, and any other wide roads conducive to the staging of protests, as well as all major government buildings such as the Kenyan Parliament or the Governor’s Office.
Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and trusted media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in secure accommodation.
Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.

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