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Uganda Election Violence Reported

Post-Election Violence Reported Near Kampala, Uganda

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 15:30 GMT 18 JANUARY 2026

On 15 January, voting took place for general elections to elect the president and members of parliament. While the initial stages of the voting process were peaceful, violence broke out overnight in Butambala, approximately 55 kilometres southwest of Kampala. According to Muwanga Kivumbi, a senior member of parliament for the National Unity Platform (NUP), security forces stormed his home and shot ten members of his campaign team after hundreds of his supporters had gathered there after voting ended. His supporters fled following the shooting. However, according to local police spokesperson Lydia Tumushabe, a group of “NUP goons” had planned to burn down local polling and police stations. 25 people were reportedly arrested.

In Luweero, 40 kilometres north of Kampala, protests occurred overnight on 15 to 16 January after security personnel blocked voters from accessing the Luweero Islamic Primary School polling station, where vote counting was underway. Security forces responded with tear gas and live ammunition, killing at least three people and arresting 34 as protesters mounted barricades and burned tyres along the Kampala-Gulu highway, disrupting traffic.

Voting occurred amid a nationwide internet blackout. On 13 January, Uganda’s communications authority pre-emptively ordered all service providers to suspend internet access. The decision was justified in terms of public safety, to prevent “online misinformation, disinformation [and] electoral fraud… as well as preventing [the] incitement of violence”. The move comes after the Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) announced that speculation regarding the suspension of the internet was “mere rumours” days prior.

Vote counting is underway as of the time of reporting, with results due to be published within 48 hours of polling closing, before 17:00 local time on 17 January. According to preliminary leaked results, 60 per cent of votes have been counted, with Incumbent President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) winning around 75 per cent of the votes, and primary challenger Robert Ssentamu (Bobi Wine) of the National Unity Platform (NUP) receiving around 20 per cent.

Wine has accused the government of electoral fraud, posting on X that “[s]everal incidents of ballot stuffing have been recorded. The regime military and police is [sic] directly involved in repressing our agents at polling stations. On top of abductions, the regime forces are targeting our leaders across the country! #FreeUgandaNow”. Wine has also declared that he has been placed under house arrest, with the military having allegedly encircled his house.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Election Violence Raises Risk of Wider Civil Unrest in Uganda

Cutting the internet has been used in Uganda in recent years during elections or periods of heightened tension. The internet was almost certainly pre-emptively cut to prevent the spread of footage of security forces using excessive force, the spread of anti-government sentiment, and the organising of mass rallies on social media. Internet restrictions will highly likely remain in place over the coming days.

Major youth protests have erupted in recent years in neighbouring Tanzania and Kenya, as well as numerous other African countries, including Morocco, Madagascar, and Angola. In Uganda in November 2020, in the lead-up to the January 2021 general election, security forces arrested Wine, citing violations of COVID-19 protocols. Widespread protests erupted across Uganda, particularly in Kampala and other urban areas. Security forces cracked down on demonstrations, deploying tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition, and detaining approximately 3,000 people over the election period.

Following reports of security force violence, electoral fraud, and the placing of Wine under house arrest, anti-government sentiment is almost certainly heightened, significantly raising the risk of widespread civil unrest. Following the publication of the electoral results on 17 January and the almost certain announcement of Museveni’s victory, Wine is highly likely to double down on claims of electoral fraud. Amid the tense political environment, this is likely to trigger demonstrations from many Wine supporters, which would almost highly likely escalate if security forces were to formally place Wine under arrest.

If civil unrest breaks out, demonstrations are likely to occur in Kampala and other major cities. In Kampala itself, protests will likely be particularly intense around the Central Business District and near government buildings. Large anti-government protests would highly likely result in travel disruptions, with security forces likely to use roadblocks to prevent protesters from accessing government buildings and diplomatic zones.

Civil unrest would almost certainly raise the risk of a potential coup. Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is expected to take over the presidency should the 81-year-old president fail to complete his term in office. Kainerugaba, who has threatened to behead wine and called for him to be hanged, is a four-star general and top military commander, in charge of Uganda’s most powerful institution. Critics of Museveni have previously called on Kainerugaba to conduct a military coup to seize power from his father. Kainerugaba’s control of the military almost certainly heightens the risk of a military coup should major nationwide civil unrest break out.

Travel and Safety Guidance for Uganda

Avoid all major government buildings, polling stations, military barracks, universities, and police facilities.
Reassess travel to Uganda in the coming days.
If travel is necessary, allocate additional time for all road travel in Kampala and other major cities in Uganda. Expect increased checkpoints by security forces.
Plan for internet and communications disruptions; ensure you have emergency contacts saved on your phone and plan any potential travel routes. Emergency contacts should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support.
Ensure that mobile phones and other electronic devices are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
Avoid all areas of potential unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape.
Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in a secure accommodation.
Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

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