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Honduras Braces for Unrest Ahead of Tight Presidential Vote
SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 12:00 BST 28 NOVEMBER 2025
Honduras is scheduled to hold general elections on 30 November to elect the president, members of the National Congress and 20 members of the Central American Parliament.
The president will be determined by a one-round vote, in which the candidate with the most votes is elected to succeed incumbent President Xiomara Castro, who is constitutionally limited to a single term.
Current polling indicates that the presidency is a tightly contested race between Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party and Nasry Asfura of the National Party running neck-and-neck, while LIBRE’s Rixi Moncada trails in third place, suggesting no clear frontrunner.
Polling stations will open at 07:00 local time and close at 17:00. Voters who are still in line by closing time will be able to cast their ballots.
The vote-counting process can take weeks. In 2021, final vote tallies were published on 28 December, a month after the vote.
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Fraud Claims and Military Involvement Heighten Risk in Honduras
The elections are likely to cause protests in Honduras in the short term. This is due to the extreme polarisation of the Honduran political system. In the lead-up to the vote, several main parties have levied accusations of fraud and warned of foreign interference. The Attorney General has alleged that the opposition will attempt to manipulate the results, releasing, in late October, an audio recording that seems to suggest an agreement between National Party officials and senior military figures to claim victory before the official vote count is complete. Military leaders have also demanded to run a “parallel” vote count, which has almost certainly increased fears of institutional interference.
Previous elections have also resulted in widespread protests. In 2017, the vote led to almost a month of violent street clashes, curfews, mass arrests and almost 40 deaths after the opposition claimed there was widespread election fraud. In 2009, following the military ousting of President Manuel Zelaya, large-scale mobilisations paralysed parts of Tegucigalpa and other cities for weeks.
Protests are likely to begin shortly after the vote count is completed and the results are announced. However, if any of the participating parties claim an “early” victory, this would highly likely increase the risk of large-scale unrest in the immediate term. Protests following the elections are likely to take place near government buildings and party offices. Large-scale unrest often coincides with road blockades on key highways, leading to severe traffic disruptions.
Honduras currently implements a “state of emergency”. It was issued in 2022 and is based on the “Mano Dura” anti-crime approach adopted by El Salvador. The state of emergency grants police significant powers to stop, search, and detain civilians. While aimed at combating organised crime, the state of emergency almost certainly increases the threat of a violent police response to all forms of unrest.
Travel and Safety Guidance for Honduras
- Avoid all non-essential travel to central Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula on election day.
- Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
- Avoid all areas of unrest due to incidental risks to bystanders. If caught in the unrest, travellers should move with the crowd until they find the nearest opportunity to escape. If in a vehicle, look to turn down the nearest road. If driving away is not an option, lock the vehicle and escape on foot.
- Always follow all instructions and orders from security forces. Where possible, avoid areas of active unrest and remain in secure accommodation.
- Prolonged civil unrest can disrupt travel, especially if protesters begin targeting airports. Travellers should have contingency measures in place, including evacuation plans and reliable access to food, water and medication.
- Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any loss of electricity.
- If caught in the vicinity of a security incident, seek shelter immediately and leave the area if safe to do so. Continue to adhere to all instructions issued by authorities and obey any security cordons in place.
- Closely monitor trusted local news reports and government alerts.
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