Alert+

Hurricane Melissa, Caribbean

Jamaica Braces for Impact as Hurricane Melissa Reaches Category 5 Strength

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 1200 UTC 27 OCTOBER 2025

On 26 October, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Hurricane Melissa had strengthened into a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). It is now a Category 5 hurricane, situated 170 kilometres (105 miles) south of Jamaica as of 10:00 UTC 27 October, Melissa is anticipated to make landfall early 28 October local time on the southern coast of Jamaica.

With maximum recorded wind speeds of 269 km/h (167 mp/h), the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) anticipates that Hurricane Melissa could have a high humanitarian impact, with a total exposed population of 3.1 million to category 1 or higher wind speeds.

In response, authorities in Jamaica have implemented several mitigation measures, including the temporary closure of Norman Manley International Airport (KIN) in Kingston and Sangster International Airport (MBJ) in Montego Bay, and the closure of all schools across the country until further notice.

Jamaican authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for the following locations:

• Port Royal, Kingston

• Portland Cottage, Clarendon

• Rocky Point, Clarendon

• Old Harbour Bay, St. Catherine

• Taylor Land, Bull Bay, St. Andrew

• New Haven, St. Andrew

• Riverton City, St. Andrew

Heavy rainfall has already been recorded across Jamaica. Severe rainfall of up to one metre is expected, with storm surges, flash flooding and landslides likely in the affected areas. At least three deaths have been reported in Haiti, with the outer bands of the hurricane causing heavy rainfall and landslides. A bridge was destroyed and riverbanks breached in Sainte-Suzanne in northeast Haiti. The Dominican Republic additionally has experienced heavy rainfall, with one death having been reported.

Contact us for Evacuation Assistance →

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Hurricane Melissa Poised for Significant Impact Across the Caribbean

Hurricane Melissa is the 13th named storm of 2025’s Atlantic hurricane season (June to November), with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration having previously predicted an above-normal season with between 13 to 18 named storms and three to five major hurricanes.

Hurricane Melissa is the third Category 5 Atlantic hurricane of the season. However, unlike the other Category 5 hurricanes, Erin and Humberto, which reached such intensities further east over the Atlantic, Melissa is forecast to directly make landfall in Jamaica and then Cuba and will likely have a far more severe level of impact. Moreover, the hurricane is currently moving at only eight kilometres per hour, considered very slow, which, if sustained, will likely exacerbate the impact of the storm.

A country’s disaster resilience, which consists of multiple factors including preparedness measures, infrastructure quality, building planning, and emergency response capacity, remains the most critical determinant of a natural disaster’s potential impact. Jamaica is assessed by GDACS as having Medium vulnerability. While mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for at-risk areas, officials have indicated that uptake has not been high enough and are reportedly considering enforcement of the orders. Hurricane Beryl in the summer of 2024 led to at least four deaths in Jamaica and USD 204 million in damages. Melissa will almost certainly have a higher level of impact, with the potential to be the worst hurricane to have ever hit Jamaica.

In Cuba, Melissa is forecast to make landfall at either Category 3 or 4 strength late 28 October or early 29 October local time, with the city of Santiago de Cuba highly likely to be heavily impacted. Cuba has already over the past year been heavily impacted by a series of nationwide power blackouts, leading to rare instances of civil unrest, with these issues with the nation’s energy infrastructure almost certain to be exacerbated by Hurricane Melissa. After Cuba, Melissa is anticipated to impact both the eastern Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos Islands on late 29 October, likely at a reduced strength of Category 2 or 3. The hurricane is not anticipated to have a major impact on the eastern seaboard of the United States.

Map of Hurricane Melissa Path — *Hurricane Melissa Path, accessed via zoom.earth 1100 UTC, 27 October*

Travel and Safety Guidance for Hurricane Melissa

Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
Heed evacuation orders and travel to government-issued shelters if safe to do so.
Ensure important documents and medications are stored in waterproof containers.
Prepare an emergency ‘go bag’ with essentials such as bottled water, batteries, important documents, and medications.
Confirm booked flights are running prior to checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
Prepare for power outages, communication disruptions, and travel delays.
Avoid areas near bodies of water where possible.
Stay away from damaged buildings and affected areas until authorities deem them safe.
Do not drive or walk through flowing water, even if it looks relatively shallow.
Management should maintain communication with individuals affected until the event is concluded.