Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35

Headlines From This Week

  • Widespread Far-Right Protests, Germany – Germany experienced widespread neo-Nazi protests between 29 and 31 August, focussed predominantly on regional capitals. The majority of these rallies were matched by anti-fascist or left-wing counter-protests, and a heavy police presence. Despite police efforts, violence was reported at a number of sites. Travellers are advised to avoid any large crowds or political events due to the risk of violence.
  • Mnangagwa inauguration in Zimbabwe – President Mnangagwa, the recently elected successor to Zimbabwe’s long-term President, Robert Mugabe, was inaugurated in Harare on 26 August. The event was peaceful, with the opposition subdued after the defeat of their legal challenge against Mnangagwa’s election.
  • Ethnic violence in Ethiopia’s Oromia – Estimates suggest that up to 13 Somalis may have been killed in two ethnically motivated attacks in Ethiopia’s Oromia region. The Ethiopian government strictly controls the country’s media, so reporting has been limited. It appears that members of a semi-official Ormoro militia were responsible for the killings. There is no indication that any specific event triggered the killing, suggesting this violence remains part of the wider trend of ethnic violence in the country.
  • West Bengal Unrest – India’s West Bengal has been shaken by widespread and violent civil unrest as the Supreme Court invalidated a series of local election results. At least 10 people have been killed in the clashes, primarily as a result of violence between competing political groups; however, one child was shot and killed in an apparent assassination attempt against his mother, a local councillor.
  • Dam Breached in Bago – A major dam in the Bago area of Myanmar failed on 29 August, following an extremely high level of rainfall. The resultant flooding has led to at least 12,600 people being evacuated into emergency camps, with up to 14,000 homes impacted to some degree. Major damage to roads and bridges downstream of the dam has also been reported. Travel in the region is likely to be impeded for a protracted period.
  • Brazilian troops deployed to Venezuelan border – The Brazilian government deployed troops to the Venezuelan border in order to support local law enforcement faced by a flood of refugees from the beleaguered nation. The flood of migrants has drastically changed the demographics of Brazil’s border areas, leading to a rise in civil unrest as the local population rally against the significant burden on their public services. There has been no indication that Brazil is seeking to close the border.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Italian Rail Strike – Staff for Italy’s Italo NTV highspeed rail network are due to conduct strike action on 07 September. Italian law requires a basic level of service to be maintained through all strikes, however widespread disruption is expected across the network. Italo NTV operates on a limited network which connects major cities. Long distance, rather than local travel will face the most extensive disruption.
  • World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan – The World Nomad Games is due to be held in the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan between 02 and 08 September. The games attract crowds significantly greater than the region’s normal population and therefore are likely to place a significant additional burden on travel infrastructure. Delays to travel and routine business operations are therefore likely. The games are also likely to attract a heightened security presence.
  • Super Typhoon Jebi –Typhoon Jebi, is on course to strike Japan over 04 and 05 September. Whilst presently rated as a typhoon, forecasters asses that it will likely become a super typhoon, with wind speeds over 175mph, by the time it makes landfall. The impact is likely to be significant; Japan has already been struck by several storms this season, existing damage to infrastructure and residential areas are likely to make Jebi’s impact all the more damaging.
  • Opposition Rallies in Madagascar – Madagascan opposition group, the Initiative for the Emergence of Madagascar (IEM), has planned to hold a rally in Antananarivo’s Mahamasina Sports Palace. Andry Rajoelina is intended to be the main speaker and is likely to use the rally to boost support for his presidential bid. Madagascar has experienced significant civil and political disturbances since a coup in 2009. It, therefore, remains possible that any major political rally may develop into violence, or have wider political ramifications.
  • Russian Pension Reform Protests – Vladimir Putin, Russia’s longtime President, announced his support for sweeping pension reforms at the end of August. The reforms include raising the male pension age to 65, and 60 for females; as a result, a significant proportion of the population will not live long enough to collect them. In response, protests have been planned across Russia’s major cities, starting from 02 September, and are highly likely to attract support from across the full political spectrum, including those typically supportive of the President. Major opposition protests are often heavy-handedly suppressed, however, the broad base of support for these rallies may limit the government’s options. Travellers to major Russian cities are strongly advised to maintain a high level of situational awareness and seek to avoid the vicinity of any rallies or protests.

Significant Dates and Events

  • 01-03 September – Madagascar – Local transport strikes in Antananarivo
  • 01 September – Bangladesh – BNP political rally to be held in Dhaka
  • 01 September – Slovakia – Constitution Day
  • 01 SSeptember– Uzbekistan – Independence day
  • 01 September – Croatia – Major motorbike rally in Pula
  • 01 September – Mauritania – First round of legislative elections
  • 01 September – Mali – Opposition march in Bamako
  • 01 September – India – State-wide protests planned in Punjab
  • 02 September – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally
  • 02-03 September – Hindu regions – Krishna Janmashtami
  • 02-04 September – Tunisia – Maritime personnel to strike nationwide
  • 03 September – Bermuda – Labour day rally in Hamilton
  • 03 September- Canada & USA – Labour day
  • 03 September – Vietnam – National day
  • 05 September – Cocos Islands – Sporting event to cause disruptions on West Island
  • 06 September – Tunisia – Rail workers to conduct nationwide strikes
  • 06 September – Bulgaria – Unification day
  • 06 September Swaziland – Somhlolo day
  • 07 Sptember – Brazil – Independence day
  • 07 September – Fiji – Constitution day
  • 07 September – Mozambique – Victory day
  • 08 September France – Pro-environmental rallies in Paris and Lyon
  • 08-12 September – Spain – Airport Security personnel to strike
  • 09 September – India – Akali Dal group to rally in Abohar
  • 09 September – Russia – Nationwide rallies against pension reform
  • 09 September – Dominican Republic – Anti-abortion rally in Santo Domingo
  • 09 September – St Lucia – Anti-government march planned in Castries
  • 10-11 September – Italy – Airport staff to conduct nationwide strike
  • 13 September – Austria – Pro-refugee rally to be held in Vienna

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 35 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.