Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 29

Headlines From this Week

  • Israel Approves Jewish Nation-State Bill – The Israel parliament, or Knesset, approved a controversial bill which categorises Israel as a Jewish state and elevates the Hebrew language over Arabic. The passing of the bill saw furious scenes in the parliament building. This move is likely to bring protests not only within Israel but also on the borders of the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank.
  • Trump and Putin Meeting Fallout – President Trump faced widespread condemnation from across the US political spectrum for statements made after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland. Trump has fluctuated between stating that Russia did and did not meddle in the 2016 election. A further meeting between the two, which has also seen widespread opposition, has been penned for Autumn 2018.
  • 48 Dead in Mongolia Flooding – Widespread flooding, notably in the capital Ulaanbaatar and in provinces of Bayan-Ölgii, Khovd, Uvs, and Govi-Altai, have left at least 48 people dead in Mongolia. The adverse weather conditions have led to evacuations, damage to travel infrastructure, and power outages. Further heavy rainfall is forecast in parts of western, northern, and central Mongolia in the coming days, with the potential to exacerbate flooding and cause further disruption and risk to life.
  • Protests Continue in Iraq – Protests, which began in the southern city of Basra 08 July, have continued this week. At least 11 fatalities have been reported as the unrest over a lack of basic services, namely electricity shortages, has spread from Basra all the way to the capital Baghdad. 500 injuries have also been reported (including 300 members of the security forces) Demonstrators have also voiced grievances with corruption, unemployment, and water shortages. Security personnel have used live ammunition and water cannons to disrupt protests and telecommunications have been intermittently suspended.
  • Deadly Flooding in Niger – At least 13 people have been killed nationwide after heavy rainfall and flooding in Niger, with the most affected areas being Maradi, Agadez, and Diffa. In total, the adverse weather conditions have affected more than 17,000 people. Further rainfall is expected over the coming days.
  • Nicaragua Government Occupies Masaya – Pro-government forces retook the opposition stronghold of Masaya on 18 July after nearly 24 hours of skirmishes. Protesters and barricades have been cleared from the streets. Three fatalities were reported as a result of this operation. Unrest is set to continue nationwide.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Pakistan General Election – The 2018 general election in Pakistan is set to be held on 25 July. The election may prove to be only the second democratic transfer of power in the country’s history. Former-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been banned from running in the election over corruption charges. The campaign period has seen a number of terror attacks targeting rallies and politicians. Pakistan’s security forces, a powerful political element in the country, have been accused of actively favouring the candidacy of Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party
  • Anti-IMF Protest in Argentina – Activists have planned another protest against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to take place in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, on 21 July. The demonstration has been arranged to coincide with the visit of IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Activists are set to gather at the intersection of the Pueyrredon and Las Heras avenues starting at 1100hrs local time. It is unclear how many attendees should be expected but previous anti-IMF unrest has seen violence.
  • Mali Presidential Election – Mali will elect a new president on 29 July 2018. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has announced he will be running for a second term. The president of Mali is elected via a two-round system, with the victor requiring at least 50 per cent of the vote to win a five-year term in office. There are more than a dozen other candidates in the running for Mali’s top post. The election period is likely to lead to a spike in civil unrest and terrorism – much of Mali remains outside of the control of the central government in Bamako. Mali is also one of the world’s poorest countries and corruption is endemic.
  • Elections in Cambodia – Cambodia goes to the polls on 29 July 2018 to elect members of the sixth National Assembly. There are 125 seats to be contested with 63 required for a majority. The ruling party, the Cambodian People’s Party led by Hun Sen, is expected to win as the opposition and free media has been decimated by the government. Demonstrations are certainly possible before the election on 29 July but are more likely to be in favour of the regime. Travellers should avoid discussion of the alert as it may lead to arrest or a forceful response from local security officials.
  • Les Fetes de Bayonne – Bayonne Festival, dubbed the largest festival in France, is set to take place between 25 and 29 July in the French Basque city of Bayonne. The event is inspired by the Festival of San Fermin in Pamplona, Spain. A series of events occurs over these days and the city is expected to be crowded with tourists – this raises the potential for criminality.

Significant Dates and Events

  • 07 to 29 July – France – Tour de France Cycle Race
  • 19 to 22 July – United States – Summer X Games in Minneapolis
  • 19 to 22 July – United Kingdom – The Open golf championship at Carnoustie
  • 20 to 22 July – United Kingdom – Baggage handlers plan to strike at London Luton Airport
  • 20 to 22 July – Germany – Formula One race weekend near Heidelberg
  • 24 July – Ireland – Ryanair pilots to strike
  • 20 to 22 July – United States – Rugby World Cup Sevens in San Francisco
  • 21 July – Belgium – National Day
  • 21 July – Guam – Liberation Day
  • 21 July – Germany – Pro-refugee rally in Dusseldorf
  • 21 July – France – Planned anti-violence march in Beaumont-sur-Oise
  • 21 July to 05 August – United Kingdom – Women’s Hockey World Cup, London
  • 21 and 25 July – Bangladesh – Garment rallies in Dhaka
  • 22 July – Gambia – Revolution Day
  • 22 July – Israel – Pro-LGBT nationwide strike
  • 23 July – Egypt – Anniversary of the Revolution
  • 23 July – Papua New Guinea – National Remembrance Day
  • 23 July – Philippines – Anti-Duterte rally planned in Quezon City
  • 23 July – Oman – Renaissance Day
  • 23 and 26 July – Guinea – Further nationwide strikes scheduled for 23 and 26 July
  • 25 July – Puerto Rico – Constitution Day
  • 25 July – Spain – Ambulance workers in Malaga to strike
  • 25 July – Cuba – National Revolution Day
  • 25 July – Tunisia – Republic Day
  • 26 July – Liberia – Independence Day
  • 27-29 July – Hungary – Formula One race weekend in Budapest
  • 28 July – Peru – Independence Day
  • 28 July – United Kingdom – Eurostar staff at St Pancreas station to strike
  • 28 July – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally planned in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 29 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 29 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.