Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 27

Headlines From This Week 

  • Terror Attack in Mali – Insurgents in northern Mali conducted a significant improvised explosive attack against French and Malian forces in the Gao region. At least four civilians were killed and numerous civilians and soldiers were wounded during a direct attempt to destroy French armoured fighting vehicles. This attack may represent a step-change in insurgent capabilities in the region.
  • China Floods – At least 16 people have been killed and 10 others are wounded after heavy rainfall led to flooding in southwest China. Rains struck the provinces of Guangxi, Yunnan, Hunan, and most notably Sichuan. In Sichuan province alone, seven people have been killed, 120,000 impacted, and thousands forced to evacuate. Flooding has also been reported in Shaanxi in northwest China, the reservoir at the Three Gorges Dam is set for the first flood of the year.
  • Mexican Election – The Mexican General Election was held on 01 July and resulted in a resounding victory for the leftist candidate, Andres Obrador. Between 100-200 candidates were killed during the campaign season, particularly those standing for local administrative positions. It remains to be seen whether this violence will persist in the aftermath of the vote. The election itself took place relatively smoothly, with minimal disruption, and no noteworthy unrest. The new president’s focus against corruption is likely to face staunch resistance from lower levels of government where the influence of drug cartels is pervasive and widespread.
  • Malaysia’s Ex-Prime Minister Arrested – Najib Razak was arrested on 03 July, two months after losing a re-election bid, following widespread allegations of corruption and misappropriation of funds. Investigations into Razak, his wider party, and family are ongoing, with further arrests likely due to the theft of at least $4.5 billion dollars, laundered through a minimum of six other countries. No noteworthy unrest has yet occurred in response; however, if the investigation appears to become politically motivated, Razak’s supporters may be motivated to resist the investigation.
  • Rioting in Nantes – The French city of Nantes experienced two nights of rioting following the police shooting of a man during a stop and search. Rioters and police exchanged stones and teargas in the city centre on Wednesday and Thursday evenings, with public buildings, a community centre, and several vehicles set alight. Arrests are likely to follow. The police initially justified the shooting by claiming that the victim attempted to run officers down, however eyewitnesses claim the vehicle was static at the time of the shooting. The police officer who fired has been taken into custody whilst the investigation is ongoing and may face criminal charges.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Typhoon Maria – Typhoon Maria is anticipated to strike the southern Japanese island of Okinawa as a category four storm between 09 and 10 July. This classification means that the island is likely to be struck with winds of up to 156 miles per hour, as well as significant and violent rain. The outer edges of the storm are likely to cause disruption to air and sea travel to surrounding nations, including China, Taiwan, and mainland Japan.
  • President Trump to visit Europe – President Trump is scheduled to undertake a tour of Europe, attending a NATO summit in Belgium, a working visit to the UK, and a one-on-one meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. President Trump’s itinerary is almost certain to attract widespread disruption and protest due to a widening gulf between Trump’s policy measures and the political positions of the European population; permits have already been issued for extensive demonstrations in London.
  • Naadam Festival in Mongolia – The national holiday of Naadam is scheduled to take place in Nepal between 10-13 July. The festival attracts extensive crowds to engage in and spectate competitions of wrestling, archery, and horse racing. The largest event is due to be held around the capital of Ulaanbaatar, however smaller events are likely to be held in most regions throughout the country. Normal services and business activities are likely to suffer extensive disruption.
  • Orange Parades in Northern Ireland – The anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne on 12 July is scheduled to be commemorated with widespread parades by the Protestant Orange Institution. The parades remain highly contentious in an environment where religious and social divides remain apparent after centuries of unrest and conflict. Travel disruption around urban areas is highly likely, and violent unrest remains a possibility. Overtly heightened security measures are likely to be in place.
  • Cambodian People Party Rally – The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) has planned to hold a rally in the Koh Pich (Diamond Island) area of Phnom Penh on 07 July. Preliminary estimates suggest that this pre-election rally is likely to attract upwards of 100,000 people from its start time of 05:30 locally. Traffic disruption and delays should be expected around the city, including around the airport. Several processions will take place to and from the event from various areas of the city until around 14:00. Other rallies will be held between now and the general election on 29 July 2018. Avoid large gatherings, demonstrations and political meetings.

Significant Dates and Events

  • 02 to 15 July – United Kingdom – Wimbledon tennis tournament
  • 06 to 08 July – United Kingdom – Formula One race weekend
  • 06 to 12 July – Japan – Dozens of ANA flights cancelled due to engine inspections
  • 06 to 13 July – Spain – Festival of San Fermin in Pamplona
  • 06 to 07 July – Nicaragua – Opposition groups plan 48-hour general strike
  • 07 to 29 July – France – Le Tour de France cycling race
  • 07 July – United Kingdom – London Pride Parade
  • 07 July – Cote d’Ivoire – Independence Day
  • 07 July – Tanzania – Saba Saba Day
  • 07 July – Spain – Madrid metro workers plan to strike
  • 07 July – United Kingdom – Far-right group plan rally in Leeds
  • 07 July – South Korea – Pro-Choice rally in Seoul
  • 09 July – Argentina – Independence Day and Anti-IMF protest planned in Bueno Aires
  • 09 July – South Sudan – Independence Day
  • 09 July – Croatia – Croatia Airline staff to strike
  • 10 July – Bahamas – Independence Day
  • 10 July – Mauritania – Armed Forces Day
  • 11 July – Belgium – Day of the Flemish Community
  • 12 July – Sao Tome and Principe – Independence Day
  • 12 July – Ireland – Ryanair pilots in Ireland to strike
  • 13 July – Montenegro – Statehood Day
  • 14 July – France – Bastille Day
  • 14 July – Italy – Pro-migrant rally to take place in Ventimiglia
  • 14 July – Iraq – Republic Day
  • 15 July – Brunei – His Majesty the Sultan’s Birthday
  • 15 July – Turkey – Democracy and National Solidarity day (Anniversary of 2016 attempted coup)
  • 16 – 17July – Botswana – President’s Day
  • 16 July – Brunei – Sultan’s Birthday, national holiday
  • 17 July – Lesotho – King’s Birthday, national holiday
  • 18 July – Uruguay – Constitution day
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 27 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 27 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.