Headlines From This Week
- Flooding in Abidjan – At least 18 people have been confirmed dead after heavy rainfall overnight on the 18-19 June in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire. The government has called for evacuations from flood-prone areas of the city after flood waters rose to 2.5 metres in places. The military has been deployed to undertake disaster relief. Cote d’Ivoire is currently in its rainy season, with heavy rains forecast until the end of the month.
- Push for Peace in South Sudan – President Salva Kiir and his former deputy turned rebel leader Riek Machar held face-to-face talks on 20 June in Addis Ababa, brokered by Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. The two South Sudanese political heavyweights last met at the outbreak of deadly fighting in Juba in July 2016. Machar has since been living in exile. South Sudan has been in a state of almost consistent civil conflict being formed in 2011.
- Significant Earthquake in Japan – Three people were killed after a magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck Osaka prefecture on 18 June. A further 350 people were reported injured. While no tsunami warning was issued in the aftermath of the quake, fears remain that there will be stronger seismic events in the coming weeks which could cause cataclysmic damage.
- Macedonia Naming Deal – On 17 June, Macedonian and Greek leaders agreed to end a 27-year dispute regarding the name of Macedonia, with the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) changing its name to the Republic of North Macedonia. The dispute has been bitter and has prevented Macedonia joining NATO and the EU. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras narrowly survived a vote of no-confidence due to the deal, which still needs to be ratified by both
- Death Sentence for Aman Abdurrahman – On 22 June 2018, a court in Jakarta found Aman Abdurrahman guilty of inciting others to commit terrorism and sentenced him to death. He stands accused of being the leader of an Indonesian affiliate of Islamic State. This act may cause Aman to become a martyr in the eyes of many radical Muslims in Indonesia and further afield, increasing the potential for retaliatory terror attacks.
- Tit-For-Tat Trade Tariffs – The EU retaliatory tariffs on a series of US imports, issued in response to President Trump’s tariffs, came into effect on 22 June. Meanwhile, India has announced it will raise taxes on 29 US products from 04 August. There is a significant potential for a trade war between the United States and its traditional allies, further damaging the post-World War Two western alliance system.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- General Election in Mexico – The Mexican general election is to be held on 01 July, electing thousands of positions from local councillors to the president. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leftist populist, is most likely to win the presidential election, heading a politically-mixed coalition. The campaign period has been beset by unrest and violence, with at least 100 political candidates killed.
- Nationwide Local Elections in Indonesia – Local elections are due to take place in Indonesia on 27 June. The elections come on the back of recent terror attacks in the country and there is the potential that militants will seek to disrupt the vote. Political unrest may occur nationwide, with a heightened risk in Papua, Maluku, and West Kalimantan provinces.
- Unions Call for General Strike in Argentina – The largest union in Argentina, the Confederación General del Trabajo (CGT), has announced plans to launch a general strike on 25 June. The move comes in opposition to the economic policies of President Macri, who recently agreed on a multibillion-dollar loan with the International Monetary Fund. Public demonstrations have not been planned at this time. Travel to, from, and within Argentina is expected to be significantly disrupted around this date.
- AU Summit in Mauritania – 31st Ordinary Session of the African Union Summit is due to take place in Nouakchott, Mauritania between 25 June and 02 July. Increased security measures and travel restrictions should be expected across the city, notably at the Conference Centre located within the vicinity of OumTounsy Airport. France’s President Macron is set to visit during the summit, departing on 03 July.
- General Strike in Costa Rica – Labour unions are planning a general strike to take place on 25 June. Those in the country can expect extensive travel delays and the potential for related protests, with the capital San Jose likely to be most significantly affected. If the general strike does take place, it is expected to cost the economy somewhere between $10 million and $15 million dollars.
- Alexei Navalny Plans 01 July Protests – Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny is urging Russians to take to the streets on 01 July in response to the government’s plans to increase the retirement age. Navalny has filed requests for demonstrations in 20 cities but they are not set to conflict with any FIFA World Cup matches. Russian authorities are likely to make arrests before and during the protests; violence is possible.
Significant Dates and Events
- 22-24 June – France – Formula One Grand Prix
- 23 June – Estonia – Victory Day
- 23 June – Finland and Latvia – Midsummer’s day holiday
- 23 June – Luxembourg – National Day
- 23 June – Ethiopia – Pro-government rally in Addis Ababa
- 23 June – Burkina Faso – Opposition rally planned in Ouagadougou
- 23 June – United Kingdom – Pro-EU “People’s Vote March” in London
- 23 June – Angola – Protest planned in Uige province
- 23 June – United States – Pro-immigration rally in San Francisco
- 23 June – United States – Anti-poverty rally in Washington DC
- 23 June – Kazakhstan – Anti-Nazarbayev rallies planned
- 23 June – Portugal – Festival of Sao Joao de Porto
- 23 June – South Korea – Anti-North Korea protest in Seoul
- 24 June – Philippines – Manilla Day
- 24 June – Turkey – General Election
- 24 June – Niger – Unsanctioned anti-finance law protest in Niamey
- 25 June – Croatia – Statehood Day
- 25 June – Mozambique – Independence Day
- 25 June – Canada – Anti-Trump protest in Montreal
- 26 June – Azerbaijan – Armed Forces’ Day
- 26 June – Madagascar – Independence Day
- 27 June – Djibouti – Independence Day
- 27 June – Sri Lanka – Poson Full Moon holiday
- 27 June – Tajikistan – National Unity Day
- 28 June – Ukraine – Constitution Day
- 28 June – France – Potential general strike
- 29 June – Seychelles – Independence Day
- 29 June to 01 July – Formula One Grand Prix
- 30 June – Norway – Oslo Pride parade
- 01 July – Hong Kong – HKSAR Day and Pro-democracy rally
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 25
The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 25 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.