Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 32

Headlines From This Week

  • Earthquake in China – At least 19 people have been confirmed dead after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck northwest of Guangyuan, Sichuan province on 8 August. The area is frequently struck by earthquakes; in May 2008, 70,000 people were killed in a quake.
  • Kenyan Elections – Some localised violence has occurred, with at least five deaths reported, after Kenyans went to the polls. Incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta is set to be sworn in for a second term. However, his primary opponent, Raila Amolo Odinga has claimed the elections were not free and fair despite observers from the EU, AU, the Carter Centre, and elsewhere stating otherwise.
  • South Africa Secret Ballot – Parliament voted for the eighth time on a motion of no-confidence in President Zuma. Despite being a secret ballot, the motion was not successful. The opposition have now called for parliament to be dissolved and early elections to be held.
  • North Korea vs the US – Both the United States and North Korea have been accused of increasing the tensions on the Korean Peninsula this week. President Trump has promised to bring “fire and fury” on North Korea, while Pyongyang has declared an intent to attack the US island territory of Guam.
  • French Soldiers Attacked – Six French soldiers were left injured after being rammed by a BMW in the Paris suburb of Levallois-Perret on 9 August, in an apparently deliberate attack. Police believe the perpetrator has been arrested, after being shot by police.
  • Central African Republic Clashes – 30 civilians, including six Red Cross aid workers, have been killed after clashes between a self-defence group and a local militia, believed to have been the UPC, a Muslim militia. The civilians had been attending a crisis meeting at a health facility in the town of Gambo of Mbomou prefecture.
  • Lahore Terror – Lahore was hit by another terror attack on 7 August, with at least 39 people injured, including children. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack but the Pakistani Taliban are active in the area; in July of this year, they killed 25 in a bomb blast in Lahore.
  • Nigerian Kidnapping – On 7 August, 16 people were kidnapped from a passenger bus outside of Port Harcourt in Nigeria’s Rivers State. This attack demonstrates instability in the area, despite the reduction of militant attacks on oil pipelines in 2017. Kidnapping-for-ransom is common in Nigeria with public transport often targeted by criminal groups.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Pakistan and India’s Independence Days – Pakistan and India celebrate their independence days on 14 and 15 August respectively. Large crowds and heightened security measures are expected in major cities of both countries. There is also the potential for border clashes in the Kashmir region or for terror groups to attack large crowds.
  • South and North Korea’s Independence Day – The Koreas celebrate the end of Japanese colonial rule on 15 August. Protests are expected at the Japanese Embassy in Seoul by surviving ‘Comfort Women’. It is also possible that Pyongyang will use this as an opportunity to conduct another missile test, especially given the ratcheting up of tensions recently.
  • Afghanistan’s Independence Day – There will be heightened levels of security throughout Afghanistan for their Independence Day celebrations. The threat of terror attacks, either targeted or random, remains severe. In 2011, the British Council compound was attacked by the Taliban on the country’s Independence Day.

Significant Dates & Events

  • 12 August – Prague Pride Parade
  • 14 August – Jewish festival of Tisha B’Av
  • 14 August – Hindu festival of Krishna Janmashtami
  • 15 August – Republic of the Congo National Day
  • 17 August – Gabon National Day
  • 17 August – Indonesia Independence Day
  • 20 August – Montreal Pride Parade
  • 19-30 August – Southeast Asian Games

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Week 32 – Weekly Risk Roundup The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 32 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.