Alert+

Widespread Violence in Mexico After CJNG Leader Killed

CJNG Leader “El Mencho” Killed in Military Operation in Jalisco

SITUATION SUMMARY | Intelligence cut off: 11:00 UTC 23 FEBRUARY 2026

At approximately 13:10 on 22 February, the Mexican Secretariat of National Defence (SEDENA) conducted an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco State. The operation resulted in the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho,” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Several alleged CJNG members were also killed, and unverified reports claim that either one of Mencho’s sons or his brother-in-law was detained.

A White House spokesperson declared the US provided “intelligence support” for the operation. In early 2026, the US launched the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel to cooperate with the Mexican government against cartels on both sides of the border.

In response to the operation, members of the CJNG set multiple vehicles alight across the state of Jalisco and imposed numerous roadblocks, particularly in Puerto Vallarta, Tapalpa, and the Guadalajara Metropolitan Area. Multiple businesses, including supermarkets, banks, and petrol stations, were also targeted in acts of arson. Cartel members in Guadalajara allegedly warned residents to remain indoors or risk being targeted.

All taxis and ride-sharing services have been suspended in Puerto Vallarta, and multiple airlines, including United, Southwest, Delta, Alaska and Air Canada, suspended flights to the affected areas.

The unrest spread to other parts of Mexico, with security officials reporting that over 250 blockades occurred across 20 different states. Local authorities and foreign governments issued shelter-in-place warnings. The Governor of Jalisco urged people to stay in their homes until the situation is under control, and a red alert was issued in Guadalajara. In several states, the suspensions of schools, businesses and public transportation have been reported until at least 23 February.

The US Embassy in Mexico instructed all US government personnel in Guerrero, Michoacán, and Quintana Roo to shelter in place, and directed staff assigned to Consulate General Monterrey to remain within the Monterrey metropolitan area until further notice. The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) urged its citizens to remain indoors and avoid all unnecessary travel.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

Flights Suspended and Shelter-in-Place Orders Issued across Mexico

As the head of the CJNG, El Mencho was one of the most wanted people in all of Mexico and the US and had a USD 15,000,000 bounty on his head issued by US authorities. Since its founding in 2009, the CJNG has developed into Mexico’s strongest cartel. In 2024, the fracturing of the Sinaloa Cartel after the capture of several of its key leaders allowed CJNG to expand its presence across multiple states, resulting in a nationwide spike in homicides and other violent crimes.

Past cases of arrests or killings of key cartel leaders have resulted in immediate-term waves of violence. For instance, in October 2019, the arrest of Ovidio “El Ratón” Guzmán López, son of Sinaloa boss “El Chapo”, resulted in the outbreak of severe violence in Culiacán, known locally as “Culiacanazo”. Faced with extreme levels of cartel violence, authorities took the controversial decision to release Guzmán.

CJNG will highly likely continue to respond to the killing of its leader with targeted violence against police, authorities, and security forces across its areas of operations, while also staging violent actions aimed at causing major disruptions and undermining the government. The states that will likely be most affected by the violence include Jalisco, Nayarit, Michoacán, Baja California and Baja California Sur, Colima, Tamaulipas, and Sinaloa; areas where the CJNG is most influential.

There is a realistic possibility that the public acknowledgement of US involvement in the killing of the CJNG’s leader has temporarily increased the risk to US tourists, personnel, and businesses in Mexico. The operation follows months of US pressure, threats of military intervention in Mexico, record extraditions to the US and the sharing of intelligence with Mexico. This has resulted in more visible security coordination between Mexico and the US, and an increase in anti-cartel operations in Mexico.

Increased counter-cartel operations have resulted in direct threats from CJNG to target US Border Patrol personnel along the international border. Furthermore, CJNG-aligned elements have reportedly left “narcomantas” (publicly displayed cartel banners) at tourist resorts, warning that US tourists and government officials could face reprisals in response to alleged US involvement in anti-cartel operations.

In the medium term, the death of El Mencho is likely to intensify infighting within the CJNG, with different factions likely seeking to inherit control over the cartel. This would mirror the case of Sinaloa, whereby following the arrests of “El Chapo” and “El Mayo”, the cartel’s historic leaders, Sinaloa fragmented among various factions, which are currently engaging in an internal war. Possible splinters or rival CJNG factions are likely to prioritise securing access to key revenue-generating areas and smuggling routes.

Travel and Safety Guidance for Mexico

Expect the security situation in the region to remain unstable in the immediate future.
Stay inside and avoid any non-essential travel within Mexico due to the risk of military operations and cartel activity.
Closely monitor announcements from local authorities and media sources for any developments that may severely impact the local security environment.
Adhere to all shelter-in-place warnings until they are lifted.
Expect heightened travel disruptions due to road obstructions and blockades, and subsequent security checkpoints.
Some roadblocks may be cartel-imposed. If possible, avoid roadblocks.
When approaching a roadblock, if unable to avoid it, remain in your vehicle with your hands visible, seatbelts on, and windows up. Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
If travel is necessary, avoid road travel outside major routes. Keep to intercity road travel during daylight hours and use pre-arranged transport only. Do not travel after dark.
Avoid government institutions and embassies.
Do not take pictures of government buildings, roadblocks, or ongoing incidents.
Travellers with upcoming flights to/from/via Mexican airports, especially Puerto Vallarta International Airport (PVR) and Guadalajara International Airport (GDL) are advised to check their flight status with their respective airlines and plan accordingly.
Keep emergency contact numbers saved on your phone, including those for local authorities, medical services, and consular assistance. Ensure mobile devices are fully charged.
If available, monitor your intelligence provider’s alerting platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the unrest.

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